France has one of those charts. One that jumps out
immediately- no wonder it has had so many Republics, and been a key
battleground in 2 world wards, there is something inherently unstable about it
despite its motto of liberte egalite fraternite and its artistic and
philosophical slant. No surprises then, that it has suffered more than its fair
share of terrorism in the last few years, and one can’t get away from the idea
that the other type of battles of European Union and the Euro won’t ultimately
be fought in Greece or the Uk but in France.
And it seems that we will see some of those issues be addressed in the
coming 5+ years.
2017
However January and February 2017 are not really those
times. There may be lots going on in preparation for the presidential election
of 2017, and there is continued impetus for change but there is no indication
of outright conflict at this time.
Things are, unsurprisingly given the April election) a
little more tricky come March to May. It will certainly be a hard fought period
when the outside world will see France as being a risky bet, though internally
it will be much more politics as usual. Obviously there is change – this
analysis doesn’t tell us more than how that will play out after the election.
June To August sees things settle down and the element of
conflict reduce, though not
eliminated. However there are new
factors at play as a shake- up starts in economic issues, unfortunately it
could lead to strategy which is
idealistic but mistaken.
September and October see this continue and unfortunately it
may be accompanied by some partial breakdown in relationships with other
countries ( this might or might not be Euro related). There is a dangerous
attempt to assert independent ideals at this time.
November and December see the above themes emphasised even
more. There is huge expectation that change will be for the better and deeply
passionate commitment to that but there is also support for the status quo. The
result is a short period of policy debate but little long term result.
2018
2018 is a year which is even more about conflict, or at the
very least, attacks on the foundation of French principles.
January and February start with the same issues as 2017
ended.
But there is much more potential for open conflict now.
While I don’t see a long term trend emerging yet, this is definitely a time for
care to be taken in the country.
March and April see country and leadership aligned, which
I’d like to think was in response to good policies, but I am afraid that that
won’t be the case. There is still a lot of very difficult pressure that
requires calming down.
May to September sees a shift in focus. The people are
energised, although they are not sure how to use this new drive. There is a
short period where the president or government may be held is a very positive
light. But the greatest theme is that of the beginnings of change to the way
the country trades and does business; changes that represent the end of a long
cycle and may have a radical effect on the economic system for the longer term.
France is likely to be a focal point at
this time.
October to December,
see the continuation of this theme (as it will take some time to develop and
then embed).The people as a whole are highly motivated by the changes .
However there is still a risk of objections taking a more
militant tone during the early part of this period at least.
2019
January and February 2019 are months when the watchword is
“adjustment”. There is far less direct action than in late 2018. Things are
more tricky and take longer than expected.
Getting everyone on the same page is harder than the
idealists might think and, some restriction and regulation is needed to help
bring things about. Nevertheless some change can move forward.
March and April sees a more difficult period, when the
leadership and the people are not so much in agreement, the idealism is ok in
theory but the changes to the status quo economically are very unsettling.
There may be a tendency to cling to the past from some quarters.
By early May the people are keen to be seen to be in charge
( this is after all a republic) . The is a slower pace to change and more
restriction to keep things in order.
The rather difficult sentiment of spring/summer 2018 is
better channelled now into debate rather than anything more physical.
However it won’t be an uneventful time.
August to October is quieter. There is time to consider the
statistics and what they mean, as well as to align a vision.
Change continues but is probably confined to institutions
and policies rather than the outside world now.
November and December see more of the same. Generally the
country is more at ease during this phase.
Some restrictions are possible again, but there is general
momentum and definite optimism to push forward. A good time economically.
January 2020 is relatively quiet, despite the mood of
freedom that pervades. I would guess that focus is elsewhere now.
February and March are more challenging. There is a
situation with other country(ies) which is at odds with the direction France is
moving leading to a bit of a stalemate. However there is also a sense of
dynamism and positive development which suggests that internally progress can
be made.
April to June sees the international situation escalate
somewhat. Hope of diplomatic solutions is not realised. And the ongoing
internal institutional changes are more noticeable again, and this time there
are all sorts of obstacles to progress.
July to October is a mixed period. At the beginning no one
particular theme stands out; more of what has gone before, but perhaps in a
more moderated way.
By the end of the period the external issues are key again
and there must be a huge amount of effort employed to negotiate a sensible
outcome.
Then in November and December we see globally
another change of focus. In France this initially means a quieter time as
changes go on as intended, and the impact on the perception of the leadership
appears good. But by the end of December everything has shifted and the flaws
in the economic reforms might emerge.
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