Italy 2017-2020

 Following the Italian vote last Sunday ( 4th December 2016 as I write), I brought forward my Italian analysis in the expectation that I would see some sort of implosion with probable knock-on effects on the Euro etc.
However, while it isn’t all plain sailing in the next 4 years, I’m not seeing what I expected. Rather I am seeing a continuation of the not great, but not terrible scenario of 2016, that I originally forecast back in 2013. At least until 2019 anyway.
Having said that, we are currently in a phase of vocal opposition to the status quo and that will last for at least another year or two.
 
2017
January and February 2017 are mainly concerned with the outcome of the decisions made this month. There is a chance to make progress but keeping everyone happy requires too much adjustment. The economic position is still difficult and the stats are mixed. There are even additional financial restrictions to contend with
March and April see the mood shift a little, as the financial position shows some hope ( whether justified or not) but the leadership situation is definitely not resolved as there are two conflicting paths.
May through to July sees a return to negotiations about change and there is a real opportunity to made some radical progress now.  However this is offset by stalemate at government level, and also perhaps with the outside world too.
August to October is a time of excess emotion, but it is also a time of transition for how Italy is viewed in the world as it becomes more nuanced.
There continue to be issues regarding the leadership but at least now it is possible to make changes without so much opposition and with work compromises can be reached.
November and December see Italy in the news again globally. There are a lot of changes in a short time.
There is more discipline in government, although this is accompanied by restrictions on any attempt to mislead or otherwise weaken the decision process. Although there are still uncertainties it is a better time
2018
As a result January and February 2018 are relatively calm. Although financial issues may plague the leadership.
March is curious, the government is evolving and even the people are facing up to difficult decisions. There can be another opportunity to transform some of the more outdated structures now if  there is enough incentive to push on through.
April and May certainly sees the beginning of a new phase for the country. When I say new, I mean the end of a phase that really started in the 1970s and intensified in the 1990s in terms of the way the country is both promoted economically and how it is led
The two months themselves are actually quite difficult, with the people opposing the current economic strategy.  This might be one of the most confrontational times of the 4 year period. This is Italy, strikes are always possible
Although the country is still edgy, things calm down a lot by June and July.
August and September are more mixed, and there is once again some confrontation, but the mood is more positive that in the spring.
In October and November there is a real effort to make economic changes and the chances of success are better.
The government is still shaking things up gently and can consolidate its economic reforms now.
December once more sees a big change , as the country and possibly its economic partners once more faces some drama.
Nevertheless, it does not look too serious.
 
2019
 
What is notable about 2019 is the lack of focus on leaders and more emphasis on economy and people
January 2019 is a mixed month. There are some signs of uncertainty but also some potential for economic progress.
February is actually a very calm month when little happens either way.
The March to May sees some radical steps forward as the people start to believe in the changes and get more on board with it.
One of the best periods for progress.
June to September is more mixed again. Stats are mixed, progress is mixed and sometimes there is heated debate, but the probably of significant protest is much less than previously.
In October and November, its all amount the people having their say. The emphasis is on exchange and communications.
Other than that, changes and developments are mostly in the background and pace is slowed down.
December the people seem to be 100% behind the leadership despite confusing directions. There is huge power available to be harnessed for reform now.
2020 
2020 is a key year for the country – of course it seems to be a key year for many countries, but in Italy the theme relates to the way the country  has been and is run much more than elsewhere.
We start in January and February with huge but relatively positive change; that is to say there is big changes at leadership level but they aren’t created by out and out conflict of any kind. Of course there are adjustments required but these are desired rather than resented.
March and April see the themes continuing with more optimism.
The economic and political foundations of the country are being revised now.
As a result, May and June may see a new leader, or a change in style of leadership at any rate.
Continued positive change seems to be the order of the day, although there are some financial obstacles. There may also be some seismic ( literally) events that need attending to.
July to October is more moderated, although the some themes continue, the pace is slower as there are some elements which are difficult to resolve. Still there is still plenty of momentum even if the faith in change is slightly weaker now. It is summer after all!
November sees another phase of change. It almost seems like a new country  or at least a new constitution is being created.
By December the big shifts are over. It is a month of adjustment and coming to terms with a new order of things.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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