However, while it isn’t all plain sailing in the next 4
years, I’m not seeing what I expected. Rather I am seeing a continuation of the
not great, but not terrible scenario of 2016, that I originally forecast back
in 2013. At least until 2019 anyway.
Having said that, we are currently in a phase of vocal
opposition to the status quo and that will last for at least another year or
two.
2017
January and February 2017 are mainly concerned with the
outcome of the decisions made this month. There is a chance to make progress
but keeping everyone happy requires too much adjustment. The economic position
is still difficult and the stats are mixed. There are even additional financial
restrictions to contend with
March and April see the mood shift a little, as the financial
position shows some hope ( whether justified or not) but the leadership
situation is definitely not resolved as there are two conflicting paths.
May through to July sees a return to negotiations about
change and there is a real opportunity to made some radical progress now. However this is offset by stalemate at
government level, and also perhaps with the outside world too.
August to October is a time of excess emotion, but it is
also a time of transition for how Italy is viewed in the world as it becomes
more nuanced.
There continue to be issues regarding the leadership but at
least now it is possible to make changes without so much opposition and with
work compromises can be reached.
November and December see Italy in the news again globally.
There are a lot of changes in a short time.
There is more discipline in government, although this is
accompanied by restrictions on any attempt to mislead or otherwise weaken the
decision process. Although there are still uncertainties it is a better time
2018
As a result January and February 2018 are relatively calm.
Although financial issues may plague the leadership.
March is curious, the government is evolving and even the
people are facing up to difficult decisions. There can be another opportunity
to transform some of the more outdated structures now if there is enough incentive to push on through.
April and May certainly sees the beginning of a new phase
for the country. When I say new, I mean the end of a phase that really started
in the 1970s and intensified in the 1990s in terms of the way the country is
both promoted economically and how it is led
The two months themselves are actually quite difficult, with
the people opposing the current economic strategy. This might be one of the most confrontational
times of the 4 year period. This is Italy, strikes are always possible
Although the country is still edgy, things calm down a lot
by June and July.
August and September are more mixed, and there is once again
some confrontation, but the mood is more positive that in the spring.
In October and November there is a real effort to make
economic changes and the chances of success are better.
The government is still shaking things up gently and can
consolidate its economic reforms now.
December once more sees a big change , as the country and
possibly its economic partners once more faces some drama.
Nevertheless, it does not look too serious.
2019
What is notable about 2019 is the lack of focus on leaders
and more emphasis on economy and people
January 2019 is a mixed month. There are some signs of
uncertainty but also some potential for economic progress.
February is actually a very calm month when little happens
either way.
The March to May sees some radical steps forward as the
people start to believe in the changes and get more on board with it.
One of the best periods for progress.
June to September is more mixed again. Stats are mixed,
progress is mixed and sometimes there is heated debate, but the probably of
significant protest is much less than previously.
In October and November, its all amount the people having
their say. The emphasis is on exchange and communications.
Other than that, changes and developments are mostly in the
background and pace is slowed down.
December the people seem to be 100% behind the leadership
despite confusing directions. There is huge power available to be harnessed for
reform now.
2020 is a key year for the country – of course it seems to
be a key year for many countries, but in Italy the theme relates to the way the
country has been and is run much more
than elsewhere.
We start in January and February with huge but relatively
positive change; that is to say there is big changes at leadership level but
they aren’t created by out and out conflict of any kind. Of course there are
adjustments required but these are desired rather than resented.
March and April see the themes continuing with more
optimism.
The economic and political foundations of the country are
being revised now.
As a result, May and June may see a new leader, or a change
in style of leadership at any rate.
Continued positive change seems to be the order of the day,
although there are some financial obstacles. There may also be some seismic (
literally) events that need attending to.
July to October is more moderated, although the some themes
continue, the pace is slower as there are some elements which are difficult to
resolve. Still there is still plenty of momentum even if the faith in change is
slightly weaker now. It is summer after all!
November sees another phase of change. It almost seems like
a new country or at least a new
constitution is being created.
By December the big shifts are over. It is a month of
adjustment and coming to terms with a new order of things.
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