Although there have been economic challenges and changes in
China over the last few years, and although there is some uncertainty as to how
reliable the statistics are and how serious the combination of slowing growth
and increasing balance of trade with the US will play out in the longer term;
in the shorter term the country looks relatively stable.
However, it must be said that the coming few years are
critical for the long term development of the country. It is likely to be
centre of the world stage ( yes even more than Trump’s America) as it tries to
consolidate 70 years of evolution.
2017
January and February of 2017, will see very little change
from 2016. The same questions and concerns will continue to be discussed and
yet there will be no real challenge or resolution.
The period March to June, sees the economic position at the
forefront.
But the balance is still positive. Of course there are
background issues but these are not yet going to shake either the economy or
the government.
In fact there may even be some cause for optimism at this
time.
There is however some risk of a war of words, either
internally or externally.
July to September is not radically different. Although there
is some uncertainty for the people (and perhaps some floods).
Optimism remains, as does support for the leadership,
although there are some moderate problems with economic statistics showing some
recession and the need for some restriction on dissent.
October to December sees the beginning of some change in
sentiment.
But it is early days and the only issue to note is one of
media control. There will be more focus on the economy though.
2018 will be more about whether the people of China are
happy with the rate of change in their country.
January to April sees more concern about recession with more
uncertain stats. This might lead to some challenges for the leadership. Surprising announcements are possible.
But there is a risk that there is a momentum growing amongst
the people that could lead to problems later.
May to July heralds a change of pace. However no single
theme dominates yet. There is some misinformation about or deception by the
leadership, resulting in difficulties at the top and some economic shocks ( possibly external) may manifest.
There is a risk of problems spilling into aggression, though
this is not likely to be uncontained at this time
August and September are quieter months, which continue the
theme of May to July, with some of the economic issues and perhaps the balance
with the US needing attention.
October sees a key turning point, as a significant decision
is made.
November and December are much more likely to be eventful.
This is almost certainly related to relationships with other nations. It is a
critical point in the economic development of the country and it is likely to a have wider consequences.
What is interesting is that after some difficulties in the
November by December the leadership is seen in a positive light.
2019 is characterised by a combination of financial matters
affecting the people and long term transformation in the nature of the
leadership.
In January and February the situation is mixed. There is
some confusion over direction and even indications again of poor economic
statistics.
However there is also a very strong drive for growth which
could even be war like in its force.
Expect strong leadership actions at this time.
From March to June, there is still a very “assertive”
atmosphere ( I don’t see military action, it is much more likely to be
economic) and the leadership is supported by the people in this even though
there are some difficulties to surmount.
Expect some real economic shocks at this time, probably more
significant and widespread n effects than those from 2018.
Although the themes continue in July and August, there is
some let up in intensity
September and October see a return to the previous focus,
however. More shocks are likely, though these are not new ones, merely the next
stage of what has already happened.
It still looks as if, on balance, the Chinese leadership is
strong and positive throughout this period.
In November and December, we see another set of rapid
changes economically. The people are still inspired though. Whatever the
actions now, it is what they want too even if there is a need for adaptation
and some recession in the short term.
There are likely to be big financial announcements at the
end of the year.
2020 is a year of more drama. The shocks are almost past,
this is really the last of the big
ones, but the consequences are only just
beginning.
January, however, also sees a huge groundswell of support
for the Chinese leadership and a mood which can only be described as
belligerent. It is possible that the
country might make some grand gestures, and not in a positive way, now.
The next 3 months are more mixed, there are continuing
economic issues to contend with as well as some aggressive action ( again I see
this mainly in the nature of economic warfare rather than anything more
physical; although worst case scenarios can’t be ruled out)|
May and June are merely a continuation of the earlier
months, but with less of the drama and somewhat more considered behaviour.
July through to October also see the situation ongoing. This
time there is more emphasis on recession and financing and funds flow, rather
than any externally generated shocks. As a result things are more moderated.
November is pretty much the same as October but with things
coming more to a head.
The year ends with a global shift which puts the focus
firmly on China and what it will do next. Economically, on the one hand, it has
never looked so powerful, yet on the other it is severely constrained in its
choices.
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