Finally here we are again. Many moons have past and I’ve not
managed to communicate. But this time there was at least some sort of logical
reason, as well as the normal personal ones.
I actually started this post back in June. In fact I wrote
substantially all of it then but was unhappy at the way it hung together. I
wanted to edit it but couldn’t find a peg to hand it on.
That changed with Trump’s election win. Although this is a
general post, one can never ignore the impact of the largest financial nation
and indeed must of my data for the post was based on the US.
Only now, however, with Trump’s planned economic policies
does it truly hang together. Because those policies are about growth, and
stimulus and tax cuts and ( although it could be argued that some of these may
have long term benefits) in the short term these will all add to debt.
And it is debt that I want to talk about the most.
Well, actually what I really want to talk about it the cycle
that started in 1981/82 and that will end around 2020.
To do that fully, I’m going to have to talk planetary cycles
again, so readers who are here to just
find out what will happen may want to skip parts of what follows,
although I strongly recommend not
skipping straight to the individual country forecasts without taking some time
to see the bigger picture.
And here, quite literally is the big picture.
Note 1: This graph does not reflect the new planned policy
changes in the US.
Note 2 : I’ve chosen the US to illustrate the issue, as it
is such a major player but most Western countries ( e.g. France, UK, Spain etc. as well as
Japan) show approximately the same one. I’m also sticking with government debt,
but personal debt shows a pretty similar trajectory. It doesn’t matter anyway
as we have seen following the crisis of 2007/8 government is the borrower of
last resort!!
But don’t worry experts will tell you. Debt is fine. And
that is partly true;- debt is indeed fine so long as it can be serviced and at
the ridiculously low rates of interest we have at present it just about can.
However that big
picture is in fact only half the picture. Here is part II.
Looks good doesn’t it? GDP has grown sooooo much. Fantastic!
( Indeed, looking at this, one is inclined to ask why any stimulus would be
needed!!) And if GDP keeps growing we
can just carry on servicing the
increasing debt can’t we?
The problem is that GDP has continued to grow because of the increase in debt/credit.
i.e. GDP has a serious drug habit.
I particularly like this graph which attempts to summarise
the global position. Note the clear uptick in debt as % of GDP around 1981!
The fact is that since 1981/2, or there abouts, debt has
been fuelling GDP and so GDP has been accelerated: we’ve had tomorrow’s dinner
today. And the next day’s and the next.
( Of course experts will tell you that real GDP has grown as
well as nominal GDP, so the above statements aren’t true. But the calculation
of real GDP takes in normal inflation and not credit inflation).
So obviously at some point the trajectory must slow down and
plateau and end in recession or it will end in tears: a situation much bigger
than recession . Something that the world briefly faced, and dodged, in 2008
yet still no-one wants to seriously contemplate.
Here, for completeness, is the global position.
This obviously begs the question, where, or rather more
pertinently, when does it end?
To find that out we must put that that 1981/2 shift in
context.
In 1981/2 Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto were in conjunction (in
Libra).
Saturn Jupiter cycles are 20 year ones. We are currently in
the waning phase of a cycle that started in 2000.
Saturn Pluto cycles vary in length but in this case we are
looking at a 40 year cycle. We are in the final quarter of that cycle which
started in 1981. But there is nothing particularly noteworthy about a 20 year
or 40 year cycle per se.
However, there are a number of factors which make these
particular 2 cycles extremely important.
1.
Both cycles will end around 2020; two cycles of
Jupiter-Saturn have matched the Pluto Saturn cycle. This is highly unusual.
2.
The Jupiter Saturn cycles have changed elements-
something that happens only every 200 years. In this case the 1981 conjunction
was the first in an Air sign, but the 2000 conjunction slipped back into an
Earth sign. In 2020 the actual conjunction of the two planets takes place at 0
degrees of an Air sign, and the air conjunctions will continue for the next 200
or so years. We may have had hints of where things are going but only post 2020
will they become embedded.
3.
We are still in the first stages (on-going first
sextile) of the Pluto Neptune 500 year cycles that started in 1891/2 and which
I have talked of before. The societal impact of this cycle is still forming
with each new interrelated planetary cycle. The Saturn Pluto cycle that ends in
2020 is the first one that followed the Pluto Uranus conjunction in the 1960s,
which was the first Pluto Uranus conjunction within the current Pluto Neptune
cycle.
The 2020 conjunction is also the first
Pluto Saturn one since the conjunction of Uranus and Neptune the early 1990s
Bearing in mind that the Pluto Neptune cycle tallies with the oil and
consumption cycle and that the Pluto and Uranus cycle describes technological
and societal advances, and Neptune Uranus communications advances, the
combination of these successive firsts
makes 2020 unique and special.
But we are not there yet. We don’t just suddenly reach a
point in a cycle, it is part of an evolving picture which moves the conditions
of the past into their new phase. So the next few years will take us on a
journey from the events of the much talked about Pluto Uranus square of 2010-15
into this unchartered territory.
Note that what follows is the generic picture. How this will
manifest at a country of market level may vary significantly according to the
conditions of that country or market. We can however get some hints of how
things are unfolding on a more global scale.
And one last proviso. I don’t believe the changes of the
coming decade will be the downfall of our current societal order. As I said
when looking at the Uranus/Pluto Cardinal cross, Neptune while in trine to
Pluto is still affording us some protections; hope, consumption, oil, credit
and globalisation will survive the coming challenges. It is not until post 2030
and the period leading up to 2060 that
we will see the more fundamental challenges. However that does not mean that
the next few years will be fun.
2016
When I started writing this Jupiter was trine Pluto. Despite
Jupiter’s reputation as a benefic, it also operates as a magnifier. Not a great
thing to have when the surrounding mood is one of conflict. It was also quietly
expanding that debt problem.
We also in 2016 have had a Neptune Saturn square, which
creates events in relation to socialism, religion and the creation and
dissolution of boundaries. Its operations during this current period need no further
elaboration here. With the square, there has been a backlash against
socialistic tendencies, against the
merging of populations and against tolerance in general.
Then, at the end of the summer Jupiter entered Libra, where it is square Pluto
at the time of writing, an aspect that will repeat in March and August 2017. In doing so it reactivates that olde Pluto
Uranus square. Every time we think we are out of those woods, we find ourselves
diverted back for one last look and one last lesson. We need to heed those
lessons well , we will need them in the coming years. Moreover Jupiter is much
more inclined to beef up debt when in square. Nothing does transfer of wealth
to the rich as well as Pluto/Jupiter.
However Jupiter is also still trine Saturn that gives a
little stability still to the picture until 2017.
2017
But in 2017 Saturn moves on in Sagittarius and its influence
dilutes, the square is able to act in all its “glory”, so I expect some pretty
seismic changes, literally and
metaphorically. It looks as if the debt
is indeed going to rise.
Then, in the latter part of 2017 Jupiter moves into Scorpio
and starts a year -long series of trines with Neptune and sextiles with Pluto. Generally these will seem benign, but in a
environment of over-expansion, any sort of inflation and further expansion is
not really to be celebrated.
Anyway, more importantly, Saturn moves into Capricorn and we
really start to get a feel for the future.
So for the most part
2017 should be ok; the status quo, give or take a few disruptions- probably
around July August, should be maintained.
2018
For most of 2018, Pluto is trine Jupiter and Neptune and
Jupiter are in sextile in one last credit binge.
And then in May,
Uranus slips into Taurus. And a whole
new world starts to form. Uranus was last in Taurus in 1934-1942 which, let’s
be honest, is not exactly reassuring in terms of what that world will look
like. Of course the situation won’t just mirror that period – but with the
upcoming 2020 picture, it isn’t looking like a bowl of cherries.
Expect disruption to traditional stores of value, to
agriculture and other earth based activity (issues re GM crops, fracking and in regard to deserts, ice-caps and tectonics for example) , expect
dictators to consolidate their positions and, more positively, expect new
discoveries and inventions made between 2010-16 to bed in and start generating real
returns at the expense of the markets they replace.
So in summary 2018 is likely to be more “interesting” than
2017 but this still a reasonable semblance of normality in most places.
2019
By 2019 Jupiter is in Sagittarius, but other than activating
the new Uranus condition and stoking some more inflationary (Neptunian) fires
it is not yet the focus.
That focus is Saturn, moving swiftly from a relatively
pleasant trine with Neptune into orb with Pluto.
We will see the reality more clearly at last.
And then in the latter part of 2019 Jupiter slides into
Capricorn, throwing up some surprises as it trines Uranus and finally blowing
up the situations signified by the Pluto Saturn connection.
2019 is the year when everything kicks off big time. The
only question is whether this starts early on in the year or in the second
half.
I am inclined to think we’ll have some pretty good hints of
where we are going in the first few months of 2019.
2020
The key period in 2020 is the first few months and the year
end. Saturn is conjunct Pluto in
January, just before moving into Aquarius.
But Jupiter then conjoins Pluto in April.
Then Jupiter retrogrades and finally conjoins Pluto again in
November before joining Saturn in Aquarius in December.
The appendix lists some people and events that may resonate
to the 2020 themes. However we should
not forget that we won’t have identical conditions to 1981 or 1947 or 2000. In
1947 the conjunction was in Leo, a fixed fire sign concerned with un
challengeable leadership and creation while in 1981,in Libra, a cardinal air
sign concerned with initiating ideas,
partnerships and intangible matters (
such as credit). Capricorn a cardinal earth sign is much more concerned with
initiation of societal structures ( infrastructure/borders/hierarchies/) it builds walls, empires, laws and security.
And it wants to know when the debt will be repaid.
Looking at the events of 1981 we should bear in mind that
the 2020 conjunctions are broadly square the ones in 1981, that does not mean
more of the same, rather it means challenges to the seeds planted in the
earlier date.
So 2020 will be a year of major shifts and reorganisations.
I expect that by the end of 2020 we should
be moving into a new environment with many financial positions
recalibrated.
Appendix
To help get some hints of the direction of travel, here are some events from 1981 which may give
an indication of the areas that will be in focus around 2019-2020.
Politics
Greece
entered the EEC!
Socialist François Mitterrand becomes the
first socialist President of the French Fifth Republic.
U.S. President
Reagan and Pope John Paul II attempted assassinations
The Israeli Air
Force destroys Iraq's Osirak nuclear
reactor
Sandra
Day O'Connor takes her seat as the first female justice of the US supreme court
Anwar Sadat assassinated
Hosni
Mubarak elected president of Egypt
Bobby Sands died after a hunger strike in
Ireland
Roy
Jenkins, Shirley Williams, David Owen and Bill Rodgers announce plan to form
new party, which became the SDP
Britain hit by 105 tornadoes in a single night
Prince
Charles and Lady Diana Spencer get married at St Paul's Cathedral
The Church of England General Synod votes to admit women to holy orders
Culture/media/economy
etc
Rupert Murdoch buys The Times and
The Sunday Times
The first
London marathon is held
Raiders of the Lost Ark opens in the US
MTV starts broadcasting in the US
August 12, 1981, IBM introduced its new revolution in a box, the “Personal
Computer” complete with a brand new operating system from Microsoft
British Telecoms Act separates BT from the Royal Mail with effect from 1 October
The United States
enters the severe early 1980s recession, exactly a year after the more minor
1980 recession ended; the Unemployment Rate is 7.2%
Savings and Loans
deregulation 1980, (ERTA) in August 1981, start of crisis 1981-2
UK
unemployment peaked 1981-2
April
of 1981, NASA launched the very first Space Shuttle mission
Scientists
identify the Aids virus
We should also consider the organisations that formed during
previous conjunctions :
Pluto Saturn
CIA, Israel, Pakistan, ( note that Saudi Arabia was formed
under the previous opposition 1932)
IMF first loans
And some defunct ones; LIFFE (1982-2002) and Enron,
computing –Manchester SSEM
21/6/48
People 1981: Beyonce, Britney, Tom Hiddleston, Kate and
William
1946-8: Clintons & Trump, Elton John , Alan Sugar,
Charles & Camilla
Pluto Jupiter
BOE, G Sachs 1869, JP morgan 1st trade, Chase,
Argentinian Peso, Bill Gates , Korean Independence
And The Dartmouth AI
conference 1956
Pluto in Capricorn 1770s –
Start of industrial
revolution
USA independence
AND earlier Pluto Saturn
in Capricorn
549 Seige of Rome UK plague
785 Offas Dyke and 1284 Statute of Wales. Edward II ( First
prince of Wales) born
1284 The gold
Ducat is introduced in Venice. It became one of the most popular coins in
the world for 500 years. At the same
time, Great Britain issued its first major gold coin, the Florin.
1518 - Africa to
Americas slave trade became significant, numbers increased to 1000s
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