As usual we're aligned with the rest of the universe. Not only have I been working on these currencies over the last few weeks, but I am not posting this one as the Russian Olympics open.
I've diverged briefly from my art illustrations for these 3 posts today. I've instead decided to remind the world that these 'emerging markets' contain elements of extreme sophistication and wealth. Although admitted this one is a bit tongue in cheek!
In keeping with the other emerging market currencies the Rouble hada difficult January. With a small declines until around
22nd Jan it then lost 5% but this one stabilised quite quickly.
February and March seem to be much
calmer months.
There is a shift in emphasis from June onwards. But there is
still the continued longer term background
weakness.
However this seems to be more than offset over the summer
months by unexpected optimism and support, presumably, from the economy.
Later there may be interest rate changes in August and a
burst of buying of the currency leading to some appreciation in September
October and November are more mixed, although the mix of
sentiment is not likely to create much of a trend until late November when
there could be a decline in value, or at least a more muted approach that
restricts volumes
December, sees this phase pass but there is still some
restriction in the air despite a generally more secure condition.
2015 looks to be a positive year for the Rouble.
Still, the currency should end the first quarter higher than
it started.
There is a new situation that comes into the mix by April,
which will remain a theme over the next two years. It is possible this relates
to inflation of asset values or natural resources.
Whatever the cause it seems to carry the rouble forward in
april and much of May.
June and July look like being interesting. With possible
inflationary background leading to the
government having to take some action. Perhaps to keep over buying of the
currency in check.
September to November don’t really see a let up in any of
the themes.
There is certainly a lot happening. Long term structural
concerns remain but easily take a backseat to the inflationary asset values. Restrictions
may be imposed but by November they are likely to be overridden by more
positive spirits.
December, however, sees a more measured situation, perhaps
due to conditions in or even agreements with other countries.
While the rouble is
still attractive this will prevent too much happening value wise.
The issue surrounding asset and resource valuations
continues into 2016, with more inflationary pressures.
However in January and February these are more than offset
by some restrictive influences which might create some negative sentiment.
March and April represent tricky times, when there is a
continued attempt to balance conflicting issues. The currency will probably go
nowhere.
May and June are more interesting. The inflationary issues
reach a peak and combined with the effect of the earlier agreements creates a
sense of complete inertia with little trade
It will take some dramatic events to get this situation
moving again.
But by July there is a return to focus on asset and resource
values.
There is concern about the imbalances being created and
there is instability in the currency arrangements that have been made.
Nevertheless, august sees another burst of enthusiasm
September and October see no new themes emerging, merely a
continuation of the existing ones in a lower key. So there is unlikely to be
much change in value nor, indeed, unusual levels of trade in the currency now
There is a development towards the end of the year, though,
when there may be further attempts to bring a sense of reality back to the
situation.
Chart
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