Americas review 2013
US
Pretty much nailed the taper story and the major
international issues. Didn’t pick up on the Snowden thing though
|
Month
|
Prediction
|
Outcome
|
|
Feb-Mar
|
Positive but underlying shakiness
|
Some optimism and slightly better stats
|
|
April-June
|
Stable but lots of liquidity and no shutting it off yet. Some people
dissatisfied with the debt situation
|
Growth reported in Q1 but less than hoped
NSA situation
|
|
July/aug
|
Nothing to suggest reduction in liquidity – president supported
|
Mentions of taper affect rest of world but come to nothing. Syria
becomes a dominant question. Support in US but not from UK.
|
|
Sep /Oct
|
Darkening of mood but positive developments. A flicker of restriction
. Stability without a strong foundation
|
Syria came to a head and immediate issue resolved. Iran relation
improvements Partial shutdown in
October due to debt ceiling. Still no taper
|
|
Nov-Dec
|
Same themes – and debates over finance
|
Increasing positive views on economy. Finally announcement re taper
and bill on savings etc signed at year end
|
Us$
I so nailed this. But then this chart has proved its worth
for 15 years now
|
Month
|
Prediction
|
Outcome
|
|
Pre mar
|
N/A already gone
|
N/A
|
|
Mar
|
Should be buying and rises
|
Strengthening against most currencies
|
|
April/may
|
Key time . Relations with renminbi key – link breaking down. Expect
conflicting movements vs different currencies
|
Volatile in low range -
|
|
June
|
More liquidity – little effect on value
|
Continued fluctuations
|
|
July
|
Drama – currency trade magnified
|
Dollar weakens marginally vs sterling etc but EM crisis means big
movements vs others
|
|
August –Sep
|
Tricky – depreciation for a few months
|
Depreciation of dollar vs majors
|
|
Nov - Dec
|
Continued trend
|
Yep it continued
|
Dow
Ok . But not so good for the end of the year. Nice that it
sort of picked up the flash crash even
|
Month
|
Prediction
|
Outcome
|
|
Pre Mar
|
N/A already gone
|
N/A
|
|
Mar
|
Remains around current level – no real threat
|
Flat in March
|
|
April
|
Activity – boost in terms of value. High trading volumes
|
Rises
Flash crash 23rd April
|
|
May/June
|
Market starting to diverge from reality, speculative. Care –watch for
weak foundations
|
Bigger rise May. June sees pull back
|
|
July/aug
|
Mood continues but more restraint. Values preserved though
|
July sees rises and August another decline
|
|
Sep
|
Quieter
|
Actually rose and fell within the month – to same level
|
|
Oct
|
Turning point
|
Second week turning point – started to rise
|
|
Nov-Dec
|
Turning point. Top should have been reached in November
–consolidation don’t see significant
rises after
|
Twitter IPO Early Nov. Market
kept on rising until end of November. Fell a bit in early December but
then rose again to ultimate high
|
Nasdaq
Again ok, and not so far out with my mention of a
technical issue either- though this
could be a co-incidence
|
Month
|
Prediction
|
Outcome
|
|
Pre feb
|
N/a already done
|
N/A
|
|
Feb/Mar
|
Spurt in values – possible reaching pre crash highs
|
Increase in Feb – though ,market flattish in March
|
|
April-May
|
Nasdaq surprises. Perhaps peak and pull back. Over exuberance
|
A blip in mid April followed by rises right through May
|
|
June
|
Sentiment positive –but questions over sustainability of some tech
stocks could be actual technical
problems
|
June lost May gains .
Reinforcement of real time monitoring tools
|
|
July/aug
|
Challenges but don’t expect loss of gains to date – only caution
|
Rises in July followed by flat August . A number of technical
glitches hit in August
|
|
Sep – Nov
|
High level of speculation , faith . some companies might fall but not
overall values
|
Rises Sept to November with only small short blip in early Oct. On November 26, 2013, the index made
its first close above 4,000 since September 7, 2000.
|
|
Dec
|
No change in trend to year end Irrational belief in some components
but without economic backing
|
Further rises in December
|
Canada
Ok – but not enough time to worry about really
|
Month
|
Prediction
|
Outcome
|
|
Feb-Oct
|
N/A no predictions
|
N/A
|
|
Dec
|
End of a cycle Some shocks and debt worries
|
Job stats bad for Dec
Personal debt at record high
|
Latin America
Desafortunadamente, none of these countries’ forecasts were
completed in time for 2013!
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