A return to architecture for our South African art -the Mapungubwe Interpretation Centre is quite beautiful
2012 wasn’t a
particularly easy year in South Africa, as, along with the more structural
problems , (poverty Aids etc.) ther were
problems in the one area the country has depended on – mining with a number f
strikes and disputes some with violence. The Rand also weakened slightly
throughout 2012
So the country went into 2013 with what might be described
as rumblings. In January mining problems
were joined with issues relating to the electric utility.
The mining unrest continued into February and on the back of
this and a sluggish Q4 result for 2012 the rand fell further.
The BRIC summit buoyed things a little for a while though at
the end of March.
Mandela’s poor health caused concern ( although he is no
longer leading the country he is still a significant figurehead locally and
globally)
The Quarter 1 stats were better than expected but not enough to remove the background
conditions.
May was a bad month financially – platinum output reached a
11 year low, and gold and the Rand tumbled.
By June there were further issues with Mandela’s health and more seriously for the future of the
country the mining disputes worsened.. By mid July there were even difficulties
within the ANC
August continued to be tricky as emerging market problems
elsewhere caused further Rand falls . However there was some good news as
growth picked up a little.
Although Mandela was released from hospital at the beginning
of September, more mining strikes were accompanied by car industry strikes and
further falls in growth. But probably more noteworthy was the creation of a new
party the EFF in mid October.
While these concerns aren’t going away the remainder of the
year looks to be relatively uneventful however.
2014
January 2014 is characterised by mild inertia but being the
summer months it is not too important.
February and march are likely to see a return to the strikes
and other labour issues, possibly escalating.
There might be some support for action but there is no
suggestion that much can be achieved at this time.
A return to strikes and other mining difficulties is likely
in July and August but there is enough momentum in the leadership to get
through the uncertainties of this period. However it is worth considering
whether the more obvious manifestation of the energy that creates the strikes
may be mirrored by closet activities which could undermine the government in
the longer terms
With no let up in the feeling of unrest into October it is
most surprising that there is not more direct conflict with the leadership but
this does not seem to be the case yet. In fact there is a brief phase of
optimism in October.
However the focus on strikes etc dissipates by the end of
the year when it turns to a wider emphasis on the people of the nation as a
whole, possibly in terms of looking back at the difficulties of the apartheid
history while looking forward to the future. There is however a risk that there
will be efforts to clampdown on too much vocal dissent at this time – there are
echoes of 1985.
In early 2015 the dominant underlying theme in the eyes of
the world is the one that characterised 2014 too. But the period is again one
of opportunity.
The theme becomes clearer by March – although clearer is
perhaps not the best adjective as there is an indication that matters may be
shrouded in mist and perhaps deception, although a similar configuration in
1932-3 led to a change in the country’s logo. Other possibilities include
issues relating to water and the issue of mass unionised activity is also
possible. 2014 will have given us an indication of how this will play out.
There is, however, a noticeable shift around April, perhaps
the rise of a different style of or aims from leadership ( the last such change
was around 1991).
The period from April to august looks to be very
interesting. The themes of March are accompanied now by more action – by
pressure for more rights and the need of the leadership to adjust their
position. There may be attempts to restrict communications.
But July and August are better months when it is possible to
make progress and to find common ground for co-operation.
October and November are mixed months. There are still
issues of rights to be addressed but there is a strong spirit carrying the
government. However at the same time there is a difficult time to face relating
to leadership, perhaps relating to previous leaders such as Mandela or to
issues which the wider world considers South Africa needs to do better.
The last month of the year is however unquestionably
positive.
In January to April of 2016 the country still have the
motivation and momentum to grow and improve but there is also a return to some
of the concerns of 2015. There are likely to be financial challenges and
imbalances both in terms of the overall economic position and the challenges
faced by the government in terms of the wealth and poverty of relative groups
some of which might be quite vocal at this time.
Because there is a feeling that communications are not as
straightforward as they should be, there are some unsettling events between May
and June and some challenges possibly relating to relations with other nations. However the
mood of the people is relatively good
and this is reflected in the optimism of the government.
By the next 2 months have more in common with the first 4
months. The issue of financial imbalances and the relative rights of different
groups again poses problems for the leadership. And this is compounded by the
continued issues with partner nations. There is an excess of feeling amongst the population but it is not easy to
harness constructively ( given the likely difficulties with other nations
another possibility is that there is a refugee issue) .
By October there is major emphasis on communication,
education, exchange and connections. This seems like a positive step.
Certainly relations between people and government benefit in
surprising ways in the last two months- the effect is almost over idealistic in
nature. The period ends with much
optimism – however it remains to be seen how much of this might be misplaced.
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