My original interest in Israel was in its relationship with
Iran. However my 2008-2012 analysis demonstrated that other relationships (
with Palestine, Lebanon, Turkey etc.) were also significant. Subsequently Syria
has become a key focus for all middle east activity so this must also be kept
in mind with the forecasts. As a result, it is almost impossible to predict the
direction of any activity by Israel without reference to all its neighbours. I
am sticking just to Iran at present but will consider more in 2014.
As I write this, we have reached November, so a little late
for any 2013 forecasts to be relevant, but we will still go back to the
beginning of the year for completeness.
2013
The elections in January saw Netanyahu’s Likud leading a coalition government.
Otherwise it was a
mixed month ending with an air strike on the Syrian borders.
February was a quieter month with the new cabinet not being
installed until March.
There is more evidence of events in April and May, and
indeed there was a small rocket attack from Egyptian soil and more
significantly there were more alleged
air strikes on Syrian based targets. However the evidence seems to suggest
some uncertainties about this type of
event, so we can’t necessarily be sure what the full story is.
This also ties with pressures to restart the regions peace
talks. So the mood shifted by May with more attempts to find some common ground
with Palestine. On the other hand there were internal protests against
government spending cuts,
June was a less eventful month, although there is still
evidence of behind the scenes activity. There were some clashes between
Palestinians and Israeli soldiers mid month but nothing out of the ordinary.
Indeed the most significant event of the month was probably the change of bank
governor. In July events in Egypt made Israel’s position more delicate while on
the other hand there was more promise of peace talks by the end of the month.
In August Israel released some long standing Palestinian prisoners but on the
other hand there were suggestions that Israel was contributing to Egyptian
instability and Israel launched a rocket attack on Lebanon, there were further
Syria border tensions and by the end of the month Palestine had cancelled the
planned talks. It did not look like much progress was being made anywhere
really.
So it can’t be of any surprise that November started with
another alleged Israeli airstrike on weapons shipments in Syria and attacks in
Gaza. The coming months look challenging for the country as it is prevented
from making much headway with its strategies. There may also be more government
spending restrictions affecting the economy.
2014
The first four months of 2014 are mixed. The long terms
problems, of course, remain but there is a need to adapt to the new environment
that creates confusion and misinformation. Economically inflation or too much
liquidity is possible and politically some big deceptions.
As a result there are definite signs that there will be
opposition and challenges for the leadership. On the other hand there are more
talks of peace-making.
There is little new in May and June, although the long term
political and economic issues are more pressing for the population at this
time, suggesting austerity and other threats.
But the government is better starred – quite noticeably so
at this time.
As a result early August might see some sign of aggression
by the country capitalising on this recent internal goodwill.
September is a month where there is an excess of power being
unleashed. This looks to be dangerous. Although it is not possible to predict
the source of this without looking at the other nations too, the balance
suggests that it is Israel that will be harnessing the darker forces.
However, the outcome looks to be difficult for the
leadership in October– suggesting perhaps that they have overplayed their hand.
The situation appears to calm down them in the next month or
so, with those ubiquitous promises of co-operation again.
The last month of the year is more mixed. But there is no
evidence that the situation is resolved, merely that it is on hold for a while.
The government looks to have more solid support again and there is some
restriction on use of force.
While 2015 starts with the same background issues to contend
with (suggesting the continued need to adapt the country’s position to reflect
the changing global political landscape and quite likely the economic one too),
there is also a more favourable position during the first two months of the
year. However a return to the conditions of the previous October in March 2015
suggests that the country might be using those positive conditions to muster up
its energies for another show of might by the end of the first quarter.
The situation in April and May is therefore tricky. It is
possible that there may be global political pushback against any actions and the effect seems at
least temporarily to create some difficulties for the Israeli people.
While there is no let up in the long term agenda in the next
three months, at least there is a more
moderate picture. And this improves the relationship between people and
government again.
In July there is a rare opportunity to make progress, but
there is a risk that this is harnessed to launch attacks on an enemy. It is
worth bearing in mind that it is not the success of such events that counts but
the long term impact which might not be so good. Much better to use the energy
to grow economically and cooperate politically which is a possibility now.
Whatever the outcome August will see a key shift in the mood
of the population. There is potential for a useful communications campaign and
in September for successful negotiations to take place.
The last three months are more mixed again. There may be
some surprises and though initially these are mostly pleasant, there is also a
suggestion that once again relationships between the leadership and people are
strained.
The end of the year sees a tricky position where there may
be some attempts to restrict or shut down some information or communication.
2016
As 2016 begins, we see the picture beginning to shift
slightly. At a guess this is the result of events elsewhere. It makes the
events more tangible and concrete but
less insidious. There are strong influences at play in the first two months and
a likelihood of some difficult circumstances. There is also a continued focus
on wider communications matters – once again by March there is a high chance of
them not being entirely straightforward.
The leadership is favoured during these months and could go
overboard with initiatives. But the changing picture from the perspective of
the population that started in August gives them a further opportunity to make
additional progress.
In April to May, another stage in a long 30 year shift takes
place and the more concrete events force a re-evaluation.
Conditions are good at this time for transformation, but
there are also conducive to hardship and difficulty if that transformation is
not in the right direction. In some ways though, this period is merely setting
the scene for the coming 4 months .
The transition from background rumblings to more concrete
developments is completed in these months. But there is no clear path, it is as
if information and global conditions make it hard to know how to act. But the
fact is relations with other nations are about to change radically in a way not
seen since the country’s formation in 1948. Evidence of dramatic change can be
seen from June. Events are magnified in July and by August become even more
newsworthy culminating in the country being the focus of all attention by the
end of September.
Matters calm down a little in October as the effects of the
last few months are absorbed.
There is no let- up in the background themes that dominated
the fisrt half of the year though.
There is evidence that the issues relating to communication
with the population will be important now.
2017 promises to see how this will affect the
mood of the people
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