January marked the start of a turning point in the
foundations that underpin Iran, although there seem to be few events that
particularly demonstrate this. The key word is ‘beginning’ though , the end of
this phase would not be concluded until much later.
Nuclear talks with the US were mooted in early February,
although there was much scepticism about the real likelihood of these and by
the end of the month more sanctions were on the agenda.
The president went to Egypt (where he had a shoe thrown at
him) in February. The country announced progress with its uranium conversion,
but the biggest issues were at home where sanctions were leading to currency
and inflation problems etc.
Attempts at talks in early April failed, but as the
elections began to draw near there was more potential for hope.
Nevertheless in
the end the elections on 14th June elected the more moderate choice
(in Iranian terms at least) suggesting there is potential for transformation an
d a change of mood followed the elections, and
Rohani attempted to get hardliners on side. Although global news
reported the ‘surprise’ result, such a change was clearly indicated in the configuration.
It was interesting to note the cautious tone of iran in
August while the Syria chemical weapons issue was at its peak.
September saw a shift in the US approach as contact was made
with Iran about its nuclear programme and by the end of the month a date had
been set. The country was also attempting to implement economic reforms and
indeed the two matters are closely linked. The talks in mid October mark
exactly the shift that could be perceived at the start of the year even if they
are only the first stage in a long process. By the end of October Iran was
trying to lure Western oil groups back.
For the most part the last two months of the year are
positive. The work towards change that has characterised the year continues.
However don’t expect miraculous leaps forward – there is still a tendency to clamp
down on any radical views , and the issue of the Uranium developments.
In April and May, the mood is better, although there are
still efforts to restrain any big steps. The issue of the Uranium work
monitoring continues.
There is also evidence that economic inertia may be
significant.
Although this inertia dominates right the way through the
second quarter of the year, there is also some advancement, possibly even a
leap forward, in negotiations . There is much potential for change
However any progress is tempered by an excess of rhetoric-
something that the country still specialises in. And there are still forces at
work to try to undermine the leadership but no dramatic changes are likely.
Nevertheless we are reaching the end of one 12 year cycle and the start of
another with broadly positive direction.
September is a month where the government can make progress
as it has broad based support in the country. However there may still be some
unsettled factions.
In the last 3 months, those underlying power issues within
government continue but the broader environment is positive for embedding
change.
Expect more grumbling and sniping though both within the
country and later towards external
parties.
2015
Although 2015 starts with continued economic inertia, the
signs are generally very positive indeed for the first three months. There is potential for consolidation of
position, for calming statements and for the
country to harness power
constructively. The only risk is that the government goes overboard in
their enthusiasm.
There may be big changes regarding women in the country by
April and May, although these are not without severe opposition. Due to this it will still be a couple of
years before the full benefits can be seen.
June is another broadly positive month when more change can be accomplished. But it
is not without some vocal resistance however.
July and August are more mixed, there is some minor
unsettling behaviour but nothing on a grand scale.
Although this mood continues into the next quarter, the next
two months are more interesting.
There is a noticeable period where hardline positions are
weakened and there is possibility to start a new more open phase, perhaps
particularly in religious matters.
2016 however is a key year when the country can transition
to a new environment.
In January though it is merely a continuation of the late
2015 trends.
February sees a return to the issue of women’s rights among
other things. And this is accompanied by the creation of new foundations. On
balance the opportunities outweigh the obstacles – there is potential to slowly
evolve a new zeitgeist.
April and May are more mixed- there are real fundamental
challenges to be addressed. Resistance is likely to be futile in the longer
term as the evolutionary force seems to be on the side of the leader.
However in the shorter term anything can happen and there is
evidence of unrest and possibly even violence in June. But there is support for
the leadership.
Unfortunately the June mood continues through to September
with the pace of activity and change speeding up. Big conflict ( probably spoken rather than
physical) is likely by late August, although the mood is more co-operative in
September.
October –November sees a lull in the main themes of the year
but a short period of divergence/opposing views between leadership and people.
December, however, sees a return to the conditions of April
and May but they are even more exaggerated now with the issues of the country’s
image of rights and freedoms and of the use of power all coming to a head.
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