Just a regular picture for my chosen artwork this time, but what a pic. I toyed with choosing some modern art, some architecture and then some pictures of moose but in the end my favourite animal wins out.
I must admit I also toyed with changing the base chart I use for
Canada as I still have reservations about it. But in the end it was the
country’s flag that convinced me to keep the chart.
Canada came through the financial crisis of 08 relatively
unscathed due partly to its more conservative banking system but also to the
fact that it is one of the commodity based nations. However the benefits have
to some extent been eroded as the sense of security has subsequently resulted
in possible overextension
One of the areas that came under the spot light in late 2012
was the Senate expenses. This had the potential to tarnish the image of the
country. So in February 2013 an investigation started. Of course this was less
amusing than the new banknotes showing the wrong maple leaf!
The report of the scandal was issues in May, but not all the
accused accepted any wrongdoing and the report was not The net was widen as other parts of the
government started to look at expense issues to.
The economy and most particularly house prices was still
buoyant but more questions were being asked on its sustainability.
In June the bank of Canada assessed the stability of the
financial system as relatively sound. But continued doubts were expressed about
the housing boom and related debts and the Candian dollar fell to ist lowest of
the year. A cabinet reshuffle in July
attempted to move forward and put the scandals away to regain public trust as
well as increasing the number of women
Worries that the economy was losing momentum were put to
rest with positive statistics for July and August. In retrospect though this
might be seen as the time the boom ended.
A survey in august indicated that the scandals had caused a
significant amount of distrust amongst the voters. This was having a positive effect on views of
the opposition.
September saw some recovery in the dollar as a result.
Although this was a temporary rise on a downward trend through the year.
In October the bank downgraded its forecasts for the economy
over the coming few years. But it also signed a landmark trade deal with the EU
In November some senators were suspended following the
corruption allegations.
December sees the culmination of a 30 year cycle and some
shocks which might disrupt the government further. Debt worries will dominate for the people,
January sees only a continuation of December’s concerns, but
some upsets
in government are likely again.
February to April are dominated by the long term economic
cycles. There seems to be a continuation
of the spending which has created some much personal debt in the country. There
are some positive statistics and accompanying delusion. But people are worried
and there is a sense that things are not being properly
controlled.
The naïve optimism and excess liquidity that characterises
the broader economic picture dominates throughout the rest of the year really.
But there are also some shocks around May and June which contribute to a loss
of faith. Energy sources are likely to be a key topic under discussion.
Concerns continue among the population though. There is
a price to be paid for debt and this is
lack of future disposable income. This is starting to be felt.
However the latter part of the third quarter seems to be
devoid of these concerns with even the government having a positive boost.
In October and November, there may be more economic
uncertainty and perhaps political revelations.
It is possible that the pattern of Canadian government/parties will be
changing over this period. There is also a trend towards more female
involvement.
Communication and debate is highlighted but there may be
efforts to suppress attempts by the people to stimulate such debate.
Economically it means little change to rates.
The final month of the year brings only a continuation of
the main 2014 issues as further pressures build up towards 2015
With no let up in the background conditions in January and
February, we finally reach a point where things become more concrete. The events may have echoes of 1931-2 , when
Canada’s independence became legally substantiated and when strikes by miners
etc dominated the news .
The first few months of 2015 thus look difficult for the
government, although there are still mitigating effects in play.
March to May sees the beginning of the end of the boom, or
cheap credit , perhaps as a result of the readjustment of currencies
everywhere. The commodity situation protects Canada still though, but the
leadership has some heavy burdens to deal with.
The population finally start to come to terms with the end
of the good times.
However in June to September there is evidence that
government and people are on the same page as they deal with the surrounding
conditions.
August is a time of big announcements and big exchange
movements.
September is one of dramatic and significant action. It is
all change now.
We still haven’t seen the back of the long term structural
economic questions in October through December , and there are still more
events to be played out in terms of Canada’s political and economic position in
these last few months as well as into early 2016. The elections are planned for
now and events are likely to have created a significant opposition although the
people seem aligned with the existing party.
The times are challenging but very interesting and there is
still the protection afforded by commodities etc.
2016
March to May, then, sees a change of mood with a very easy time for the government. Although
there are economic transformations at work these are also progressing
relatively positively.
But there are some irritations and petty disruption,
shortages and disputes may create some minor problems.
June and July, however sees a more sombre mood again. There
may be issues relating to the overall country debt, which perhaps have become
more pressing as a result of 2015’s events. Economically there are conflicts
between income /trade and asset values which create problems for many people
and restrictions in trading cause some problems for the mining and commodities
industries.
Various surprising revelations and price/arte changes
characterise the next few months.
At first the government is open with communication, later
there are some more tricky matters to be dealt with but the leadership appears
to be in favour by October and on balance the country seems to be experience
controlled economic adjustment rather than any further dramatic shocks.
There is further focus on commodities in November, and
further restrictions on trading.
But at the same time
the government is making some big changes and there may even be a brief return
to the booming conditions of the past in some markets.
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