Perhaps not an obviously Australian picture- but the collection of photos that this is taken from are all of the Australian sky and are awe inspiring, perhaps giving some perspective to our petty concerns with economics and politics!
Australia is another country that has benefited from the ongoing
commodity boom of the 2000s, more recently concerns have been expressed about
the sustainability of the housing boom ( some commentators say bubble), the
resultant debt levels and the consequence of the ending of the mining sector
expansion.
2013
As 2013 started there were challenges behind the scene for
the leadership, and worries about the sustainability of the economic position,
but there was still an aura of protection which was preventing any dramatic
changes.
The political situation remained static in April, but there
were some more worrying economic statistics. On the other hand there was a
significant step forward in global relations as China opened up Aus trading
To stimulate exports etc, in May the Australian bank cut
rates to a record low and this together with continued scaling back of
investment in mining etc led to currency falls.
The pace of events speeded up in June though as Kevin Rudd
ousted Julia Gillard and in July the country was affected by the emerging
market currency concerns elsewhere as once again there were worries about the
impact on the Australian economy. Then in August the bank cutthe rate again.
The election in September saw the opposition elected.
The economic opinion favoured some growth but not as much as
some hoped for but by October business confidence was at a 3 year high.
Nevertheless the doubts over housing and investment
remained. The month was also notable for serious bush fires around Sydney.
November was characterised by worries about the budget and
the potential impact on households as well as the fallout from intelligence
information leaked by Snowden which caused problems with Indonesia
We can probably expect some pressure on the government in
December as a result of popular
dissatisfaction but nothing too significant.
2014
In January and February 2014 two themes run in parallel. A
major financial re-organisation and
period of difficulty for the new leadership.
Indeed if we hadn’t already had 2 changes of leader in the
last 6 months, one might even expect that now. What is clear is that the people
are feeling put upon and are not likely to be enjoying their summer.
March to June sees creeping changes in communications,
possibly in bank rates and there might be some shock statistics coming through.
The government is criticised for overstepping the mark and
trying to do too much when the people think that the economy needs a lighter
touch.
But in June, at least, there is positive news and the mood
is good.
It is July and August when we get a taste of what might
follow later. There is a background feeling of easing situations and a certain
drive to increase investment. It seems at this time as if the resources sector
is doing well again, although there are some investment constraints and some
elements are too disruptive – there may be questions over immigration. July
sees a shift in the government position on economic matters and perhaps a
turning point in the residential property market. August is a month when
everything in the garden looks rosy.
The background mood
continues right the way to November, but there is some unsettling news in
September and October and this will worry the population somewhat again.
By November, although there is still juice in the resources
sector, there is likely to be less in the property one as sales may dry up.
December is a remarkably quiet month with little of note
that is new. Although globally things are likely to be shifting
2015
Although January and February are moderately calm, March is
likely to see a dramatic shake up. Expect this to involve immigration flows and
to impact on the debt structures of the country as well as the resources
sector. A mining disaster can’t be ruled out at this time either. There is an
excess of emotion that is not helpful. There is certainly work for the government
to do in restoring matters to an even keel.
April and May see a continuation of the shake-up. There are
some significant flows of funds and perhaps people.
The rather tricky situation for the government continues.
The population of the country are not likely to be happy with them
Although the themes continue in June, there is less
intensity involved. But the government must face some hard challenges from the
people.
July and August are months where the overriding theme is one
of immense power. A very good time for solving economic issues and for
improving trade. Although by the end of August there are some questions over
the long term impact of actions, there is a sense of optimism and
achievement.
In January 2016 there is a permanent ( well in the general
scheme of 100s of years anyway) change in the direction of Australia,
This accompanies a continued focus on the shake up of 2015,
but by February there is a deeper, more austere feel to the changes., long held
structures in mining, finance and development will find their foundations
challenged. However this seems to be relatively well received by the country as
a whole and the mood remains positive.
Indeed the leadership seems to be viewed in a favourable and
perhaps unrealistic light at this time.
March sees the impact of the earlier changes spread more
widely through the economy as the impact of flows of currencies and people is
felt more widely.
April and May are more mixed months. There is general
optimism but there may also be some isolated unpleasant incidents which belie
this,
June therefore sees a return to some of the more challenging
days of February time – once more issues of debt and resource investment
dominate. There may even be some attempts to clamp down on any unrest.
July and August are calmer months. But this is not necessarily
good being due partly to a lack of decisiveness. The period is mixed with some
austerity and some more positive perspectives.
By the end of August there is probably just a short period
of delusion and/or inflation.
September is another months when there is less outright
drama. Again the government is viewed in a favourable light and even any
restrictions on activity are considered a positive for the country.
October is a month of consolidation and is accompanied by a
surprisingly positive mood
The final months of the year, however, see a
return to the unsettled conditions of mid –year as more attempts are made to
implement structural transformations at business level.
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