2013
Also during January the Prime Minister was arrested over
corruption.
A caretaker president was in place from March in the run up
to the general elections.
And April was really taken up with electioneering.
The election did not result in a clear winner and much of
mid May was taken up with negotiating a coalition so that a new president could
be appointed in June
There was little advancement in July and August although the
Indian border situation was a little worse with more civilians affected.
However things remained on a relatively low scale.
An earthquake created a new island this month drawing
outside attention to the country. As
of the time of writing the Indian and Pakistani leaders are meeting to discuss
relations and the indications are that this is an opportunity to progress.
December looks to be a particularly significant month. There
are restrictions that look like they might relate to border issues - possibly indicating military presence. On
the other hand it could mean more commitment to resolving border ( could be any
border) challenges.
2014
There may be further shifts in internal power in January
2014, there are further indications of an unsettled atmosphere – perhaps the
coalition is shaky?
February to April is a mixed period – there are signs that
unrest may proliferate and the country is affected by the long term global
influences that are prevalent at this time. The latter part of the period is
the most significant.
Either way it looks to be problematic for the leadership.
However the significant matters seem to be internal ones.
May and June see this continuing, and it is coupled with a
return to Decembers themes.
It is a very difficult period for a country which had such
difficult origins.
It is unlikely that this will relate to India though as it
will be approaching elections.
Although there is no real let up in the themes over July and
August. there is a period when the population are particularly vulnerable,
perhaps to more floods rather than any political or economic issues
There are economic restrictions in September and the
possibility of either an escalation in violence or earthquake activity – one
hopes that the country does not experience floods then earthquakes – that would
be too unlucky.
December is tricky with further restrictions and
adjustments.
So it seems all of 2014 passes without any major border
issues.
2015
There continue to be a great deal of power focussed on the
fundamentals of the country so the recurring country themes of violence,
economic hardship and earthquakes etc.
do not abate. This will inevitably cause major long term change It seems at this time that international
relations are the focus in the first few months.
March to May is not without problems but they are more
issues of adjustment to existing circumstances rather than new events.
A gradually evolving picture starts to take shape over the
June to September period. Adjustments are still happening but they are better
for the leadership and the period even ends with some positive developments. It
is a notable time in India too though there is nothing again that particularly
indicates direct conflict,
In October the focus is on the relationship between people
and government.
By November the picture is quite positive for the country (
within the longer term more negative context that is) with things opening up.
January 2016 is not
exactly a positive month but at least it does not see any explosive
forces and there may be reasonable opportunities for the people of the country.
And as the mood shifts a little in February and March, there
is a chance to renegotiate relationships without direct confrontation.
June to august sees a lot of focus on the country again.
There is change but it can be harnessed rather than just felt as external force
and the energies of the country are for once able to be directed in a
constructive way.
It is, however, a time when there may be some border
problems. Given the correlations between events in the two countries.
There is the possibility of the start of a slow evolution
for the better by the third quarter – but the long term situation is so in-trenched
that change always feels challenging even when it is moving in the right
direction. Faith is key to this period.
The last couple of months of 2016 are more mixed but the government has internal support even
if the external view is of it not moving in the right directions
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