2013
Economically and politically there was nothing especially
notable about the start of the year despite the fact that the expectations were
for some difficult conditions. There were however major floods which led to
landslides near the capital and 37,000 had to leave their homes.
Indonesia was also in the news internationally for the case
of a drug smuggling ‘grandmother’.
The floods and landslides were the start of a season of such
events which lasted into April.
Economic growth in the first quarter was ok but less than
forecast with a slowing trend over the
year
May was a relatively calm month
The economic situation only really began to be of central
focus from July It was reported that in the second quarter of 2013, Indonesian
economy slowed for the fourth consecutive quarter ,including a private
consumption decline.
But
it was the external financial events that were to have the most impact on the
country. Confidence in Indonesia’s economy suffered in August due to a
combination of a slowdown in China, the possibility of US monetary easing ending and most noteably a fear of regional contagion based on India’s economic woes in the same period. , Indonesia
announced a package of comprehensive fiscal and monetary policies as a
response to the pressures in the financial and trade markets.
The
last quarter of the year seems to be more focussed on the economic
outlook. There is a period which
suggests some unrest from the population and there is a likely to be a more
noticeable turndown in growth rates as the cycle consolidates.
A
new national social security system starts being implemented from January 2014, which is hoping to address some of the
longer term imbalances.
Nevertheless
2014 starts with many of 2013’s conditions continuing. There is the underlying
weakness as well as continued policy efforts to effect change. More action to
address economic imbalances can be expected.
February
is a stable month if rather hard for the government,.
March
and April are more unstable – there are likely to be moments when tension
overflows – both in the physical environment and the socio-political one.
May
sees another point of consolidation in the wider economic cycle, but it isn’t a
bad month in general.
Campaigning starts in earnest in June for the election in July. In incumbent
present must change after two terms, so we know that this will be a time of
major transition and the beginning of a new era. There are still economic
challenges to be addressed.
Some of the underlying issues that have occurred throughout
2013-14 are activated again in August, there is likely to be a focus on wealth
and government financing.
This
picture continues into September and October, with once again a noticeable
weakness in economic statistics and social welfare matters are to the fore.
Environmental issues are also likely to be highlighted. There is a point where
the identity of the people becomes important, and there may be a feeling of
loss of control for the government.
November
is better for those in power, with a
sense of calm control. But financing and investment issues are critical
– perhaps caused by external events, and there may be earthquake or related
activity.
These
external conditions continue in December but there is a shift in the mood of
the people around then. They become more nationalistic and less focused on
trade.
There
have been a lot of changes in the year but it will be 2015 when the impact of
these is fully felt.
2015
2015
may well be characterised by petty difficulties
January
and February still see the shakiness that pervaded the last quarter of 2014,
but there is renewed vigour and determination too.
March
and April are mostly positive, there is certainly enough energy to push
forward, even if there may be some residual weakness from the past. There may
also be issues surrounding women’s freedoms.
The
period May to August is however more challenging. There is still a lot of
economic drive but there are more wealth and funding difficulties to be
overcome as well as events that shake up the country’s institutions and
standards.
However
the pronouncements from the leadership are well received.
September
is less eventful with only the background issues continuing.
Then
in the last quarter of 2015, there is another period of energetic advancement,
perhaps accompanied by some excess ; there is an indication of somewhat
frenzied activity at this point – which is never good in the long run – leading
as it does to over- depletion of natural resources and/or overspending.
There
are still funding issues, possibly balance of payments related to address as well as potential for opposition to
women’s rights.
The
last few weeks of the year however see a much more controlled and balanced
evolution in matters though.
2016
There
is a slow change in emphasis as we move into 2016. Some of that energy that was
seen in 2015 is now less free to act openly – this means more regulation in
economic terms, more surveillance of opposition in political ones.
This
might lead to some groups speaking out vociferously against the country’s
direction.
More
dramatic shifts happen around March and April. There are a number of factors
which seem to be undermining the foundations
of the country.
There
is also a high chance of attempted unrest at this time which will be clamped
down.
There
may also be changes in the governing law. Some of the signs mirror those of
1989 when a new Islamic law was introduce
It
is a critical time and comes to a head by May when international relationships
come into focus.
These
themes continue throughout June and July as there is constant challenge to the
status quo. It is not all necessarily bad – it would be a good time for
revolutionising working practices
August
and September see intensification of events. This is a very challenging time –
there could be fighting amongst different factions in the country.
It
looks as if there will be a lot of external attention given to events in the
country at this time. Other issues which may be highlighted in the short term
in September are inflation and tsunamis or other floods.
There
really is no let-up in the evolution of these events. The challenges continue
throughout the rest of the year.
However
October and November do include some moderating influences and even some
positive financial news.
However
what is quite extraordinary about December 2016 is the number of signs that the
whole external image of the country is about to change, it is on the brink but
the events will become concrete in 2017.
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