A different perspective on art this time - raw materials
2013
From the beginning of the year there was evidence that the
picture was changing in India. Some of this was as a result of economic
conditions which had already been establishing themselves in 2011-12, some of
it to concerns about the underlying strength of the business climate as well as
the series of corruption scandals. Added to this the December 2012 rapes had
mobilised the public voice in the country.
Nevertheless the impact of the changing mood was masked at
this stage somewhat by the continued expectations following the BRICS successes
of the last few years.
The issues continued into April and the 12 year cycle that
had brought so much growth was coming to an end.
So there was a cloud hanging over the economy by May, even
though the first quarter showed a small amount of growth. And although the fiscal deficit was more
contained, private spending slowed. Inflation worries remained a concern of the BOI.
Then it came to
wider attention that India’s short-term debt maturing within a year is now
nearly 60 per cent of India’s total foreign exchange reserves while 5 years
earlier it had been only 17 per cent. Much of the exposure had arisen via
Corporate borrowing.
In July it was reported that corruption in India has reached
an all-time high, with over 1 in two citizens saying they had paid a bribe and
with political parties found to be the most corrupt institutions.
The picture was shifting further, but at this stage, perhaps
due to the fact that the RBOI appeared to continue be taking some action ,
meant that there did not seem to be any repercussions for the government.
August however, reactivated
the events of the end of 2012, including both the rape tragedy, but also
serious questions over economic fundamentals. Both mean the people were forcing
the government’s hand.
There is some evidence that there may be protests or
uprisings and that these will be supressed by the government.
2014
2014 begins with more communication regarding economic
matters. The underlying difficulties are continuing, with less growth and the
need to change the way things are managed.
These conditions continue into April, and although some of
the population are not content, the overall position is rather positive.
However this might be that the government is trying to make the populace more
amendable in the run up to the elections.
The May picture is very mixed, perhaps indicating that not
much concrete gets achieved in this month.
There is almost certainly a change in government for June,
possibly with a landslide- and whichever party is elected to power will have a
big mandate. However the positive reaction may be out of proportion to the
impact of they change.
By the end of June there is a great deal of focus on the
public external image of the country. There is opposition to action and
challenges for the leadership. The issues that bubbled away though 2013 have
not gone away and policies to address them must be embedded now if things are
to change for the better in future.
However despite having to confront debt issues the picture is positive for the
government by the end of September.
As mentioned the same matter continue to be relevant
throughout the rest of the year and there is a sign that the people will make
their views felt strongly around September.
2015 begins with a global shift which is felt keenly in
India.
However the overall position is still positive in January
despite what might be some inflationary or other monetary concerns.
The period February to May is a little more tricky, with
consumption affected and a major shock that could undermine the leadership but
appears to actually be positive for them at
least in the short term.
There is a sense of ease, perhaps even passivity at this
time – perhaps there is a relaxation of restrictions.
June sees more the type events that characterised January.
It may also see outbreaks of opposition leading to strikes or violence,
although economic trading shifts are more likely. There is a major theme here,
which pertains to global events and to the value of assets, but also to the
religious and cultural foundations of India.
There also be some big leaps in terms of women’s rights in
the country.
There is some clamping down on personal freedoms in
September and October though to
accompany a swelling mood amongst the population.
The year end with more unsettling events for the leadership.
If it hasn’t kept up with the events of the year it will not be stable enough
to last. We return to the issues of the third quarter but with a new slant on
them which is passionate but not necessarily rational.
2016
2016 begins with another major phase in the events affecting
the government. The picture is mixed in the first quarter so there may be a
number of different attempts at responses by government from communications of broad persuasion to over
enthusiastic ones
The people are liable to be misled in the second quarter, but
if this is uncovered there is once again the threat of unrest.
The government is challenged again but rather than sharp
shocks there is a longer process of power play going on – possibly under the
surface.
Quarter 3 thus sees an even bigger shift, probably created
by or having an impact on external relations.
Inertia, or even disasters such as floods or other events
leading to widespread weakness affect the people.
Things are better by the end of the quarter though as the
problems alleviate somewhat.
There are mixed economic effects in the last
quarter, with winners and losers. And there may be more unrest as these
unfold. With the government still taking
a relatively easy path there is no sense of progress in any one direction.
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