In the period up to and including 2012 there was a
restlessness in the way people feel, but
this was for the most part overwhelmed with a feeling of disillusionment and
lack of direction coupled with the structural economic issues such as mass
unemployment. However it must be understood that Spain is a country where
culturally they are used to restriction after the Franco era, as a result their
ability to deal with the recent challenges is much greater than in some other
nations. Those who compare Spain to Greece fail to take some of these cultural
differences into account. Spain are, in some ways, more like Germany.
2013
The first two months of 2013 showed little change from the
themes of 2012. However there are some signs that things might be beginning to
change.
In the period March to May, there is still a background
theme of non-specific unsettlement. But the impact on the people and leadership
is mixed. On balance though there seems to be some breakthrough and light at
the end of the tunnel.
However June us less positive with the people briefly
affected by the major global shifts taking place and probably causing dissent. There is a slightly
more positive short term economic mood even though the long term structural
debt/property issues remain a problem.
September actually sees a more positive mood generally and
some good news, possibly in the latest statistics. It is a more challenging
month for the leadership though.
The period October to December is surprisingly good; there
is more optimism. The country is viewed in a positive light, and there is a
much better sense of stability as a result of the improved data.
2014
The theme for 2014 is restoring the reputation.
The first four months of 2014 see further good news, and,
although there is still a long way to go, there is a sense of positive change
coming in particularly in government policy. The only risk is that some of the
optimism is premature; there are a lot of problems in the world till and the
country is by no means immune to external effects.
This seems to be borne out in May and June. While the buoyant mood continues, there are some
shocks; media, transportation and other communications might be affected as
might trading matters.
But it does not seem to have too much impact in the longer
run as the people and the government are aligned in July suggesting that the
people believe that the country is on the right track. Of course it just might
be that Spain are going to win the World cup again!
The mood continues into August as there is a potential
upturn in the financial cycle – with more liquidity and a better debt position.
The biggest risk is that the government are too pleased with
themselves in September, and this turns out to be premature.
The picture in October and November is of stability but less
enthusiasm. Whether it is a better economic climate or success in other matters
there is a sense of having a stronger footing.
December is more of a mixed month. There is a possibility of
some difficulties with partner countries, or
heavier commitments to them which might lead to some opposition or `need
for renegotiation.
2015
The 2015 theme is over stretching.
The first six months are characterised by restrictions in
liquidity and technological communications but this is not accompanied by
difficult debt conditions and there is plenty of strength to transform. The
earlier part of the period is more tricky with pressure on communications and
trade again. The latter part of the period is better with a return to optimism.
A key point in a 28 year cycle is
reached in March and suggests that
although the mood is less buoyant than in 2014 the foundations that are being
built are more secure
However May brings some upsets particularly in relation to
partner nations and these may for a time resurrect debate over some of the more
structural issues.
July and August see consolidation of the partner issues from
December 2014, and some unexpected financial events which polarise government
and people.
September is a little unstable, but this is a short term
effect.
The period from October to November sees a return to the
themes at the beginning of the year. And much ado about foreign relations again.
However the overall picture is of consolidation and opportunity for some
growth.
2016
The theme of 2016 is leadership stability.
February through March is again a positive period.
But around April the foreign partner issues disrupt matters
again. The month is more mixed, with both drive for growth and
restrictions meaning that transformation is slower.
There is more opportunity to ensure consolidated stable
growth in July and August and the environment is
generally favourable for the leadership.
However, there are radical events happening in the outside
world that cause the period around December to be characterised by major shifts
in relations. The situation seems unstable but not serious though.
The art, or in this case architecture needs no introduction.
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