No prizes for guessing why I have diverged from my forecast
plan to post predictions on the Korean nations!
The Korean situation is extremely hard to analyse, due to the lack of a defined base on which to forecast. I have used a date representing the start of the independence movement for South Korea and a date of 9 September 1948 for North Korea, but since both countries claim they have the right to the whole territory it could just as easily be appropriate to use the 1919 date for North Korea and the 1945 date for the South. However the dates are the dates in which independence is celebrated in each country so they must resonate to the individual national identities.
Nevertheless, while I am relatively happy that the 9thSept chart works for North Korea, and the 1919 chart is sufficient to predict economic and political activity in South Korea to a reasonable degree, I am much less confident that the 1919 chart is sufficiently distinct to separate South Korea’s role in any conflict between the nations from that of the North. Indeed there are so many parallels between the two charts that at times they almost tell the same story. I therefore accompany my South Korea forecast with a greater than usual caveat emptor
But, nothing ventured, nothing gained. We can only learn by trying.
Let us start with the North.
As will be seem below, there does seem to be a real threat underlying
the usual North Korean sabre rattling. My reading of the situation is that it
will not end well for them but I hesitate to detail the exact process at this
point. I will return to the situation as the year progresses.
Things really kicked off in 2013, it seems that insecurities
about power are the root cause of the latest threats. These have been
reinforced by Kim Jong Un’s need to establish a solid footing at home. Much of
the war threats at the moment seem to be
rhetoric, designed to make the country’s might felt globally.
However there is also evidence that this might turn into all
out attack, if not handled carefully. There is a reckless abandon about the
country this year which needs to be moderated at all costs.
Expect that there will be more displays of power by the
country as April progresses, though there is likely to be less of the sudden
announcements. There is definitely a likelihood of the planned missile tests
going ahead.
The situation looks like it might escalate further in May and
June ( particularly around 10th of both months and the last week of
June. At this point there is definitely a risk that there will be
wholesale action by the NK military
forces. Indeed the whole period from Mid June to Mid July looks
filled with what we could call over-assertive behaviour.
The picture then looks far more muted by September and
October. Although there is still a suggestion of militarism in October it does
not seem to be so overbearing as in the earlier months, the energy seems to be
dissipating.
KJU may well be feeling more confident about his position by
November meaning that outward aggression is not so necessary. However, there
remains a risk that this actually indicates all out war with successes for NK.
2014
While 2014 sees a change in focus, there is no quick
resolution to the issues of the previous year.
There are some challenges for the leader in January and
February, and in the latter part of that period there may be some conflict
between leadership and people – although we must always be aware that in
partitioned countries the signs for internal struggles and cross border
skirmishes are similar.
In April though the new mood becomes more entrenched. Leadership
challenges continue and the country seems to lose direction and momentum. There
may be increased economic difficulties and a general state of malaise
throughout the period to June, as if a cloud has descended. Any rhetoric now
just sounds confused and unsubstantiated
The period of July and August is therefore quiet with no
real sense of direction.
Things pick up a bit in September and October though. There
is more of a sense of purpose and another phase of outward looking action.
The country regains some sense of its power despite the
continued sense of inertia and weakness and a repeat of earlier challenges to
KJU position.
November and December are again quieter. Though the world
might see this as not knowing what is going on there.
2015
2015 begins with a return to some of the conditions and
concerns of the September 2014 period and then to another increase in the sense
of directionless and economic constraints that characterised the period from
April of that year.
The period around March and April appears to be dominated by
more global themes. There is definitely a reduction in any aggression at this
point.
However we might see an unexpected reactivation of the
previous over-assertion around June time.
I don’t expect this to be accompanied by much rhetoric though- it would
just be an out of the blue event.
The situation does not appear to be long lasting though, and
there is some adjustment and backtracking by July.
Another medium term shift in emphasis starts in September,
with the beginnings of action to try to improve the country’s economic and
other problems.
The leader’s position looks positive in October and
November. But there are still many underlying challenges to address. The broader theme of weakness will not abate for some years.
Nevertheless there is some positive spirit by December which
suggests the people are showing resilience in the face of the conditions.
2016
The general background economic conditions continue
throughout 2016.
There is a short period of activity again in January and
February, but this has
mixed results for the leadership
March to April sees
another unexpected push forward, this time perhaps accompanied by some threats.
The next few months
are quieter though, with relatively positive
support for the leader despite ongoing economic inertia and underlying fears.
It is the start of the next stage of the changes which commenced in late 2011.
Now the focus of the country is on building more structures. The radical
independence viewpoint of the nation does not change though.
There is little in the way of significant developments in
September and the last few months of the year see some more surprise actions
but even these are now reducing in strength and impact and more particularly
are becoming more measured. 2016 therefore ends very much in the way it began.
South Korea
As in the case of North Korea, we are seeing long term
shifts in characteristics over recent and forthcoming years. This indicates that the country is changing direction in
subtle but significant and long lasting ways
2013
The year has started with the escalation of rhetoric and
threats by the North. This has led to a climate of concern mixed with dismissal
– SK have seen it all before from NK.
Now, in April, although there is no let up in the level of
threats, there is also a bit of a lull as everyone waits to see what will
happen next. By May we should see some restrictions but the over-arching theme
seems to be more of the waiting game.
There appears to be much more activity in the period June to
August. If we were only looking at the economic situation, I would suggest this
would be a very powerfully positive time for the country. There is dynamism,
energy and a major step forward by August. However, with the risk of conflict
in play, we must accept that the same signifiers could mean engagement in such
conflict.
The overall impression though is of enormous power being
unleashed, and it appears to be good for the leadership .
The mood continues in the last four months of the year.
While there is some difficulty in creating a clear sense of stability, and there is an associated
confusion about what is happening, at the same time there is a huge shift in
the profile of the country. One can’t get away from the fact that this could
mean that the two Korea’s become one. However, this seems unlikely in such a
short time frame, so my guess is that the seeds are sewn now for such an event
to happen by the end of the next 12 year cycle. Economically it is a hugely promising
signal.
The sense of power for the leadership remains through
this period, although the people as a whole may feel somewhat constrained.
2014
The picture in the first half of 2014 is not significantly
different. Many of factors that were in play from mid 2013 continue to hold
sway . There is still an increased
global (economic and political ?) profile for the country, still a focus on the
power of the leadership and still some feeling of restriction for the people.
By June there is a subtle shift. The mood starts to tone
down a little. And while there is still a great deal of energy being
channelled, the effect on the country looks to be substantially positive. The
only serious risk is inflationary – of such configurations bubbles are made.
September is a moderately good month again, with yet more
power being harnessed by the people. Although there is some risk that itwon’t
all be channelled as effectively as it could.
In the final 3 months of 2014 we see things cooling further,
with clear restrictions on the ability of the country’s people to act . As the
year come to a close, there are positive surprises for the leadership but
possibly protests from some groups of people.
2015
The feeling of dissention in some quarters continues through
2015
January and February are mixed, there seems to be difficulty
getting things off the ground and moving forward, even though the leadership is
able to seize some opportunities to progress.
April sees the start of a trickier period, when the country
starts to appear erratic in the eyes of
others.
By June through to August, confusion has descended onto the
leaders, and the most that can be achieved is a temporary consolidation of
position. There is no long term stability in view.
September and October are better but there is again the risk
of dissent and protest.
Yet the population as a whole have the upper hand through this time and have a
sense of wellbeing and pride in their nation.
The last 2 months of 2015 see a return to that erratic image
that began in the spring. The period is busy but very mixed. On the one hand
messages are confused and there is a spread of misleading information and
diffusion of trade. On the other there is again an extremely outward looking
mood with the country having the opportunity to expand economically and
politically in influence. On balance it looks positive but not without some
difficulty in getting policy and action to stick.
2016 is a year of sharp words but a quieter environment.
It starts with a restriction on information from the
leadership and more uncertainly about where things are going
And then February through March see much the same conditions
that existed in November and December 2015.
But in March the picture starts to shift again. And by April
there is likely to be significant power struggles with other outside world. It
is not good for the leadership which finds itself in dispute over direction and
the object of the dissatisfaction of the people in general. However, the
objections seem to be restricted to points of view and not actions.
In any case leadership challenges continue throughout July
and August.
September sees another medium term shift as the new picture
starts to be embedded in a positive way.
The last 3 months of 2015 see a continuation of these themes
as at first there are some difficulties with the rate of change, and then later
an abundance of energy which will mean advances in some policies but with some
objections to others. The picture is mixed, and the position of the government
rather weak, but the country as a whole seems to have more opportunity and the
people to be creating the foundation of the next stage of development.
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