Ireland started 2013 in a serious condition. The fallout from the
2008 financial crisis and property bubble continues to have a severe effect
on the Irish Economy and most particularly the level of unemployment. Given
the bubble nature of the decade that preceded 2008, it is highly unlikely
that the situation will improve in the short to medium term.
There is a shift in focus by 2013 though. On the one hand the long
slow process of unwinding the debt overhang will continue, on the other there
are still shocks associated with property to unravel. Nevertheless the peak,
or rather trough, was effectively reached in early 2013.
At the same time the country is negotiating its place within the
wider world and particularly the EU.
The current period, between March and May is moderate. There are some
surprising statements and a continued sense of not knowing what will happen
next but nothing too significant seems to be occurring.
In the 2 months June and July, there is more happening. On the one
hand there is a challenge to get new initiatives off the ground in such an
unstable climate. On the other there is a renewed sense of energy and
optimism which provides the opportunity to start to repair some of the
damage. It is a time for creative solutions, but it is also a time when
emotions are high which is a risk. And there is still a sense of failure to
contend with which holds things back as well as the very real economic
hardships.
A new mood ( medium term – over a couple of years) starts to grow in
the country around August and September. There is more acceptance of the
economic situation, an appreciation of the core assets of the land – rather
than concern for short term property gains
However the impact of global and Eurozone events continues to be a
disruption preventing a clear direction although not constraining things
completely.
This background issue continues throughout the rest of the year and
the last few months see a return to preoccupation with debt and a sense of resentment.
2014 is a pivotal year from a leadership perspective.
There is opportunity to increase trade in the early months but t is
hampered by the weakness caused by debt matters. There may be pressure on the
Euro at this time.
In March through to May we see economic, and especially currency and
inflation matters causing problems for the country’s economic statistics.
Again we see the debt/currency/valuation as an on-going challenge.
The period June – July is likely to see more concrete action. But the
picture is mixed. The background conditions continue but there is momentum.
Surprises relating to leadership are likely to peak in this
period.
Early 2015 is likely to be mixed, with the longer term problems
continuing and the problems making headway also continuing despite the
motivation to move forward.
March and April may be marginally better, at least they look stable (
within the confines of the long term debt issues)
The summer months are characterised by much more action. Some of this
might be of a difficult nature as there is a suggestion that some events will
come as a surprise and that it will not all be easy for the leadership.
The debt and related financial problems are of course on-going
though. And there is a period of consolidation at best, stagnation at worst
from august to October. Perhaps there are restrictions put in place following
the summer.
Things might get quite heated both internally and in terms of trading
in these months too.
2016 begins with restraint on trade, on communication with partners
and other trading difficulties. The
debt situation seems somewhat more stable though and there is a slight
feeling of optimism in the country at large.
While the people are more coordinated and wanting the same things, by the second
quarter the trading situation is confused. There may be deception and
challenges from developments in currency and other financial markets. It is
difficult to reconcile trade levels with valuations.
In July and August trade with partners is restricted again. Indeed there is a sense
of inertia, perhaps imported from partner nations. The focus seems to be on
the outside world n any case.
By September there is a risk that the leadership will overstep its
authority and that this will lead to further difficulties.
However a key turning point in the economic development is reached in
October despite the continued
background economic and monetary difficulties. There is some stability in the debt crises and this is followed by
an increase in trade and a greater
voice in the wider international arena.
The year ends with the impact of this turning point being embedded. It is a really important
period when the country is likely to be in the news more widely with the people shifting the
balance of power and perhaps also choosing action over diplomacy.
The art by Anna Williamson is not technically by an Irish artist but I think is suitably representative of the celtic culture. http://annawilliamson.com/ |
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