Readers might recall that Greece wasn’t on my original list of
countries to follow, but was added in 2010 following its unique contribution
to the Euro story.
It still does not represent a large country in that context ( though
it is obviously bigger than Cyprus and even Cyprus seems to be able to
command headlines) but events in Greece have repeatedly activated concerns
about the other southern European countries, and for that reason it is an
important piece in the Euro jigsaw.
Greece has obviously gone through a few years of extremely difficult
economic conditions., but there appears to be a shift happening in 2013.
Unsurprisingly the theme of 2013 is leadership as the debt crisis is
managed. The prognosis for such leadership
is good, whether the economic situation is so cheerful is another question.
Certainly there are still more protests to come.
At least the first indications are that the mood changed around
February. Perhaps it was the fact that
the focus turned to Cyprus, but there was definitely sense that circumstances
were changing around this time. Reports around this time were of slightly
improved confidence.
However, there is no miracle and despite signs of recovery April is
seeing reports of the first deflation in 50 years.
But the period June to august is difficult for Greece and for its
partners. The sense of austerity and restriction is stronger and the
deflation that was identified in April seems further entrenched. Although
there are also inflationary conditions in some markets and there are likely
to be more protests because of incomes falling when cost are rising. However
the good news is that the country is travelling down the long and difficult
path in the right direction.
In the last four months of the year on the one hand there is a sense
of a small turning point and some easing of recent conditions, but there is
also continued restraint for many and continued disaffection amongst the
population as a whole. This is likely to lead to a lot of talk , but it is
mostly hot air.
2014 starts with the economy in
a slightly better condition, but it is still fragile and the people
inclined to overreact.
June sees the consolidation of the turning point that took place in
late 2013.
July is therefore a relatively good month with a sense of improvement
in the debt situation and some sense being spoken. But there are still
unexpected issues coming out of the woodwork and there will be for some
while.
The last quarter of 2014 is therefore rather mixed. But again
with a sense that the country has made
a step forward.
January and February 2015 are really rather good with, for the most
part a sense of stability. If there is a risk it is that the stability will
become inertia.
April sees a tricky phase again when global forces conspire to
trigger polarised opinion . The configuration could also possibly be
earthquake related although this is less likely. There may be issues around
the finances of both art and the shipbuilding
A long period of almost 6 months follows when things are changing in
some quite surprising ways. The stability that characterised the start of the
year continues again but there are a number of indicators of radical change,
most likely this will affect the government.
The period around July and September are relatively good times,
however, so any dramatic events are more likely to be in October and are
likely then to involve a shift in the country’s relations with its partners
and the wider world.
The year ends on another mixed note, with some of the disruption of
April repeated but perhaps not so severely.
2016 starts with much the same conditions as December 2015 and is not
especially noteworthy.
But February and March are more interesting. There is a unique
confluence of events around this time which seem to focus on one area of the
Greek nation’s activity. Economically this could mean a renegotiation of
contracts ( e.g debt matters) and partnerships and could result in the
country trying to make a stand about arrangements but on an insecure footing.
A better idea of how this might play out could become clear around April 2015
April and May are consequently quite exciting and may be rather
difficult for the government as it tries to address some of financial
complications.
June through to August sees a continuation of the issues at a much
less intense level.
And August itself is a particularly tough month in terms of
restrictions on the ability to progress.
September is much more eventful with great strides being made and a
sense of cooperation between leadership and people despite the continued
effects of the debt overhang and economic weaknesses.
October and November are months similar to April May this year in
nature
The artist is Yannis Stavrou. With, appropriately, some ships
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