Greece 2013-16


 




Readers might recall that Greece wasn’t on my original list of countries to follow, but was added in 2010 following its unique contribution to the Euro story.
 
It still does not represent a large country in that context ( though it is obviously bigger than Cyprus and even Cyprus seems to be able to command headlines) but events in Greece have repeatedly activated concerns about the other southern European countries, and for that reason it is an important piece in the Euro jigsaw. 
 
2013
 
Greece has obviously gone through a few years of extremely difficult economic conditions., but there appears to be a shift happening in 2013.
 
Unsurprisingly the theme of 2013 is leadership as the debt crisis is managed.  The prognosis for such leadership is good, whether the economic situation is so cheerful is another question. Certainly there are still more protests to come.   
 
At least the first indications are that the mood changed around February.  Perhaps it was the fact that the focus turned to Cyprus, but there was definitely sense that circumstances were changing around this time. Reports around this time were of slightly improved confidence.
 
However, there is no miracle and despite signs of recovery April is seeing reports of the first deflation in 50 years.
 
 May is a month of adjustment with no real trend emerging but with relative stability compared to recent times.
 
  But the period June to august is difficult for Greece and for its partners. The sense of austerity and restriction is stronger and the deflation that was identified in April seems further entrenched. Although there are also inflationary conditions in some markets and there are likely to be more protests because of incomes falling when cost are rising. However the good news is that the country is travelling down the long and difficult path in the right direction.
 
  In the last four months of the year on the one hand there is a sense of a small turning point and some easing of recent conditions, but there is also continued restraint for many and continued disaffection amongst the population as a whole. This is likely to lead to a lot of talk , but it is mostly hot air.
 
 2014 
 
2014 starts with the economy in  a slightly better condition, but it is still fragile and the people inclined to overreact.
 
 April and May are therefore full of heated debate again: the picture is one of polarisation. It is possible that there might be an uptick in the level of trade too. Overall there is more stability although there is still adjustment needed.
 
June sees the consolidation of the turning point that took place in late 2013.
 
July is therefore a relatively good month with a sense of improvement in the debt situation and some sense being spoken. But there are still unexpected issues coming out of the woodwork and there will be for some while.

 
 The position in August and September is also reasonably good. Although the country will not have overcome its debt problems and there may still be inflationary/deflationary matters to contend with, there is an increasing sense of optimism.
 
  
The last quarter of 2014 is therefore rather mixed. But again with  a sense that the country has made a step forward.
 
 2015
  
January and February 2015 are really rather good with, for the most part a sense of stability. If there is a risk it is that the stability will become inertia.
  
April sees a tricky phase again when global forces conspire to trigger polarised opinion . The configuration could also possibly be earthquake related although this is less likely. There may be issues around the finances of both art and the shipbuilding

 

 
A long period of almost 6 months follows when things are changing in some quite surprising ways. The stability that characterised the start of the year continues again but there are a number of indicators of radical change, most likely this will affect the government.
 
The period around July and September are relatively good times, however, so any dramatic events are more likely to be in October and are likely then to involve a shift in the country’s relations with its partners and the wider world.
   
  
The year ends on another mixed note, with some of the disruption of April repeated but perhaps not so severely.  
 
 2016 
   
2016 starts with much the same conditions as December 2015 and is not especially noteworthy.
 
But February and March are more interesting. There is a unique confluence of events around this time which seem to focus on one area of the Greek nation’s activity. Economically this could mean a renegotiation of contracts ( e.g debt matters) and partnerships and could result in the country trying to make a stand about arrangements but on an insecure footing. A better idea of how this might play out could become clear around April 2015

 
April and May are consequently quite exciting and may be rather difficult for the government as it tries to address some of financial complications.
 
June through to August sees a continuation of the issues at a much less intense level.
 
And August itself is a particularly tough month in terms of restrictions on the ability to progress.
  
September is much more eventful with great strides being made and a sense of cooperation between leadership and people despite the continued effects of the debt overhang and economic weaknesses.
  
October and November are months similar to April May this year in nature
December is another month where there is evidence that things can suddenly move forward in big steps. Some of the issues that we’ve seen before in April 2015 and early 2016 recur. And although there are some indications of both stability and opportunity, it is quite likely that the government/leadership could change at this time as the mood of the country is one of fighting against submitting to anyone else. The result is rather more dissipation of opportunities and economically of inflation imbalances than would otherwise be the case.
The artist is Yannis Stavrou. With, appropriately, some ships
 

  

 

Comments