Germany, like many countries, is facing a period of long
term structural transformation at this time. Fortunately the country will
benefit from a resonance to its conservative nature during the coming period.
However there have been some questions over the future of the leadership in the
upcoming elections but the picture should now start to become clearer.
2013
March is a month when change is the dominant theme. But it
is the influence of partner countries which is the most prominent theme.
In April the theme of changes continue with the focus of the
global image of the country.
May is a relatively benign month, although there are some
challenges that will affect the leadership, no doubt in readiness for the
election later in the year.
June is more of a mixed bag really, with a certain amount of
over-reaching- perhaps the country is involving itself a little too much in
external matters, and is perhaps a little too ambitious with trade matters. But
it is also the beginnings of a new 12 year cycle in economic development and
international matters for the country.
The period July and August, in the run up to the elections,
is more challenging. An on-going theme of slow undermining change in the
identity of the country continues. So, generally
the country will feel somewhat negative in the first few weeks, but there is a
sense of new direction by the second half of August, when the leadership
contest is at its peak.
There is no real change in September, although the mood is
more stable. On balance it seems as if Merkel would be re-elected but it is not
clear cut as there is not much difference from an economic perspective between
the policies of the main candidates.
It is possible that there will not be a clear winner and
there might be some difficulty in setting a strategy post election. There are
some global major ( probably, though not definitely, economic) issues which
will also constrain direction in the last quarter.
Although it won’t be till December when the leadership will
find itself under threat in a more noticeable way. This is a difficult period
when the status quo is being severely shook up.
2014
2014 begins with some of the issues moderating a little for
a few weeks.
However there are significant financial issues, with
questions over debt and spending, to
face in the period February to April. This period will once again put the
country at the forefront of international issues. The impact internally is
likely to be a mix – with both radical views and support for the country at
play. On balance the mood becomes more nationalistic.
There is probably more support for the government and better
economic news in May through to July.
However there are some dark views being expressed by some groups.
The situation is much the same in August and September but
there is much more opportunity for the government to achieve direction in ts
policies now.
The period around October and November is focussed more on
financial ( debt/banking etc )issues again, but there seems to be some increase
in the flow of funds which benefits technology and growth.
The last month of the year sees the global focus fall on
financial issues again , but the overall signs for this period are good, with
internal and external support for the government.
2015
2015 sees a number of slow burning but significant themes
for Germany, and a number of opportunities to be grasped which we can expect to
change the way the nation operates for the future.
The first half of the year is dominated by political themes
that echo back to 1983, and Germany’s role as an international l leader and
might cause some difficulties for the current leadership. However the general
mood in the country is mild and
supportive it is possible to accomplish a great deal.
March is a particularly positive month, probably with mainly
god economic news.
The period from April to June, on balance, sees some interesting ideas and positive
developments. There seems almost to be a leap of faith at this time, however
that does not necessary have to be a good thing since this mirrors a theme from
1932 ( but in 1932 it was accompanied by other more radical undertones).
However the period also sees the
completion of a shift in tone in the
country which started in 2013, to a more
outward looking and inclusive and thus less conservative phase in the country
which should have positive outcomes. It is also likely to see the benefit from
being more forward looking and embracing new technologies and methods.
July and August aren’t especially noteworthy months.
Although there is a return to consideration of economic and especially debt
issues.
The last few months of the year consolidate the new position
repeating many of the themes from the early part of the year. There is a sense
of stability and strength. So although there may
be some challenges in December for the leader , these are set within a new more
evolved environment.
2016
April to June us therefore a pleasant time, although the
downside of the dramatic shifts that
have taken place may be some disruption.
The mood continues in July with a positive feel about the
economic environment.
While August and September are quieter, there is still focus on financial matters.
However financial issues remain on the agenda and November
sees some conflict between the new role and the more traditional one.
2016 ends with the focus still on long term
economic issues with the opportunity to consolidate its economic leadership.
A return to the art theme at last. This is by Martin Klimas
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