One would be struck by the major configuration in the chart
that suggests that the image France would be projecting to the world now
is that of a dark, secretive,
undermining and scheming country undergoing a significant deep transformation.
Now while some people might say there is some truth in that , I was drawn to
the news item which says that Paris is to have a major Metro extension – the
country’s capital will have a major underground upheaval. It is a perfect
illustration of the difficulty of forecasters when presented with so many
potential ways a theme can manifest.
Of course far more pertinent is France’s involvement in Mali
since the beginning of the year. I am certainly glad I did not have to predict
this in advance as Mali wouldn’t have been on my radar at all.
While France’s economic situation is not dire ( after a poor
Q4 2012 it expects to grow minimally in Q1 2013), it is suffering its worst
financial situation since the start of the crisis ( something incidentally I
did point out in 2008) and recent opinion polls show the Socialist president's
popularity is falling.
However the mood by April looks good. Expect better
than anticipated statistics and a brief
few weeks of indulgence before reality resurfaces.
The period from May sees a return to the stresses of
economic and other difficulties, with perhaps a few unexpected shocks to
unsettle things further. However it
looks as if France still has sufficient reputation to overcome any financial
setbacks and there is still plenty of funds available to it in the markets.
The period around August and September is tougher. While the
government will still be in a strong position, there are some tough challenges
which will resonate with the French public at this time. It is likely that the
Mali situation or a similar event will escalate.
October is more mixed. There is no let up with the
conditions already in place and there are some further shocks for the
people.
The last two months of the year see France associated
with more restriction and some
limitations on the ability of the leadership to act as they would wish. However
there is also good news possibly even on the financial front.
2014
The beginning of 2014 sees both opportunity and the power to
improve situations but coupled with a mood that dampens the affinity of France
with its history as a republic created through revolution. Although the latter
is a theme that pops up every 7 years or so, in this case it resonates with
something in the global environment and may this have longer lasting
impact.
In July, there is focus on France , and the financial
foundations of the country, but this is unlikely to be too serious as it is
beneficial for the government. We can assume some economic pronouncements on
the Eurozone are made.
October and November see some shocks brought in to the
picture again. And issues that resonate with the history of the country are likely
to take prominence. It is possible there
will be strikes etc. This is also a key turning point in relations with other
countries.
December repeats many of the themes of the previous months
but with a stronger resonance with the people and a greater focus directly on
the economic situation.
The first 3 months of 2015, while continuing some of the
2014 trends, also begins to see a little more stability creeping in . There
might even be some positive financial outcomes/
By June there is a final evaluation of the issues that were
highlighted from October 2014, there seems to be sufficient power at ttime to
overcome most difficulties.
Q3 of 2015 sees
consolidation of the actions taken to date, an abundance of power in the
country which is likely to only be a difficulty is there is too much action and
too much financial ease. The only significant risk at this time is that the
French people feel they are being deceived or not able to influence the agenda
as much as they should. But this affect is likely to be minimal in comparison
with the drive to overcome obstacles being so strong.
January to March of 2016 are more mixed therefore. There is
still a lot of power that can be harnessed, but there is also a need to adjust
the way this is used and to pacify some more vocal members of the population.
April to June sees another mixed period, when there is real
opportunity to move forward and change things for the better, but there is also
dome dissent from some elements of the country.
The sense of unsettling power, coupled with a sense of being
restricted with continue over the summer months
This leads up to another key time in September. The period
marks a time of opportunity and the start of a new period of success for the
French leadership. There is some very powerful change in play but it is
generally received in a positive way.
The last two months of 2016 are eventful but
there is nothing that indicates a major change of mood and there is no clear
direction. The themes of change and deception both continue but there is also a
feeling of satisfaction and success in some areas and there is even some over
exuberance. However the benefits are not
universal and this means that there are still some people who demand adjustment
in policies.
The art is by Fayçal Baghriche
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