China 2013-16

The obvious question in this case is – will China’s position deteriorate or does it have momentum?

2013

 Well, for those expecting a lot of events in China this year, I am afraid you are likely to be disappointed. Whereas the currency and markets may have a great deal of action, the country’s political and economic outlook is favourable. 

 There are some surprises around leadership in late February

And in March there may be some ramifications of this, but there is nothing particularly dramatic in the offing.

The period from April to August is extremely uneventful. There are some issues with the country’s imagine around June-Aug – possibly indications of growth slowing again but this will not be perceived as serious.

There seems to be some degree of optimism around September

And October sees China in a dynamic mood. There might be some focus on the activities of the general population at this time

 The only difficulties might be in the last two months of the year. With some darker elements coming into play in November

And some economic issues to confront in December

 2014

The beginning of the year sees a similar mood to September 2013

However by March things are somewhat more difficult. There is some unpleasant news , and perhaps some more concern about the country’s finances, possibly currency related . There may also be talk of government corruption but the situation is unlikely to be too serious as the people are not unhappy. The other possibility is floods at this time.

 The situation moderates a little by June where there is merely a feeling of adjustment. However there will be some residual effects which will have to be confronted and again the mood might be more sombre.

 August is a much better month. While there are some lingering concerns, there is a revived feeling of buoyancy and faith in the government.

And the balance in September is positive too- there is a sense of drive and belief in the opportunities for the future. This builds to a sense of significant power by October .

 There is another shift in late November though. At this point there is sense of culmination of the efforts put in since 2000 and even back as far as the mid 1980s. The result is that there is a sense of achievement but also of responsibility and worry about the next steps.

 

2015

2015 is a key year in the development of China, when the peoples’ republic becomes genuinely about the people.

This is felt as early as January when there is a an increased feeling of power and energy, but also a growing sense of the need of change and an alternation in the balance of power. This may lead to some conflict between the leadership and the people by February. The mood continues throughout the first half of the year.

There is another peak in activity around June.  There is economic strength but there are issues around the distribution of the benefits. There may even be a need to restrain the actions of some factions and there may be some industrial unrest too. The general impression will be one of increased awareness of how much power the country can harness though.

There is a reduction of the impact of earlier events by Sept but there may well be difficulties associated with the history of one child policy especially as it relates to the split of male and female in the population. There may be more issues around leadership deception.

November sees a more assertive attempt to capitalise on the economic strengths of the country and a resulting stability . However certain elements of the population are still problematic and there is an excess of news on associated events.

 2016

The general conditions continue into early 2016, with obstacles and challengers facing the leadership in the first half of the year

Later on in May there is some magnification of these issues, but also more opportunity for them to be resolved.

As a result in June there is a shift in the mood of the people. They become more of a coordinated collective and  by September they have the ability to make major changes to the way the country is managed.

There appears to be continued leadership challenges throughout this period.

Although not all matters are resolved in the next few months, the image of the country does change by October/November and there is a sense of opportunity and renewed leadership.

By the year end China is poised for a major shift in position in 2017, although in the short term it is exercising restraint inside and out