Review of 2010-11

Back In 2008 I started my forecast with the UK and the remark that my analysis thus far had raised as many questions as it had answered. Over the last 3 years many of those questions have been answered, and my faith in the accuracy of astrology vindicated. We’ll look at some of this as we work our way through these reviews and in my posts in the coming weeks.

I particularly want to focus in the next weeks on the reactivation of the cardinal cross, the eclipses and the outlook for the dollar and currency markets in the second half of the year. But first let's see how I've done over the last 18 months.

UK
I expected more activity in the UK in 2010. Of course things dramatically changed as a result of the election ( which some will criticise me for not predicting but given its legal inevitability that would only be valid if I had predicted it to occur earlier), and though there was a certain amount of dissent during the year especially from students it wasn’t particularly concentrated in the summer. Although one might comments that the rampages by individuals ( Bird and Moat) in the North of England might have channelled some of these energies.

The biggest events seemed externally focussed; volcanoes, BP, weather etc. and I’ll deal again with these broader themes in a dedicated post.

As far as Sterling was concerned, inflation certainly continued apace in 2010, with monthly letters from the Bank of England, but not as much as I expected either. The government has certainly focussed on public pensions though as anticipated.

In Uk and sterling terms I predicted few dramatic developments in early 2011 – just shakiness which more or less sums up the stats at the moment. I did mentioned interest rates as a key focus for 2011 and that story continues to play itself out.

So a case of getting the themes right just not all the causes.

FTSE
I found the FTSE chart very surprising when I looked at in 2008. I looked at it in the expectation of seeing long term lowered value, but it just wasn’t there. I couldn’t see why at that point, only later did I understand the currency situation as it played out through QE and the impact that has on asset values. It is all clear in hindsight- more evidence that astrology works even when the astrologer just doesn’t have the vision to understand its implications.

I noticed in particular that the FTSE didn’t especially pick up the 2010 cardinal cross. Whilst the charts showed some key weak points in March and May and again in September and November these weren’t trends. And so it proved. A drop in July also tallied with the peak of the cardinal cross but not for long.

In early 2011 I expected more of the same with some big trading on events days in March through June. And of course we have had Japan and then the big IPOs to fulfil this prediction. The trend as I expected has been for an overall flat path in early 2011. The ftse 100 lies not far from its April 2010 position today.

I also predicted consolidation and re-evaluation within the index and there have indeed been more shifts within sectors that overall.

The Euro
Well against all the odds – if other commentators are to be believed -we still, at the moment, at least have a Euro. I questioned whether countries would drop out in my 2010 forecast. My view was that the Euro story was part of a bigger currency issue and so it proved. My prediction of difficulties in the first half of the year followed by a more benign situation in late 2010 early 2011 was validated. I expected that problems would resurface by April 2011 and so it proved with Greece and the rest of the PIIGS becoming an increasing problem to date.

I can’t believe I didn’t bother to predict the remainder of 2011 before but went on to 2012. In fact, along with the other currencies the Euro shows a critical point in September through to November, as Uranus transits the Descendant and the progressed moon reaches Pluto. I remain convinced that this Autumn is a critical time for the currency markets. Another point I will return to in coming weeks.

Ireland
I anticipated a mix bag for Ireland in 2010, and into 2011 with some people benefitting while others struggled. And a return to difficult times of severe recession. Pressure on the government was expected particularly in September. And with the severest problems beginning in April/ May 2011.

In fact 2010 was a year of extreme dissatisfaction in Ireland. On 11 May there were protests against bank bailouts – these were followed by other protests through the year. The financial situation continued to be severe and in November in IMF intervened and in late November the EU offered a rescue deal.

The government didn’t change in September though it survived votes of no confidence in June . However an election was announced in November and in early 2011 Fianna Fáil was swept from power in the worst defeat of a sitting government since the formation of the Irish state in 1921. Given that elections need otherwise not have been held till 2012 I consider this pretty reasonable accuracy.

Shame my forecast for the rest of 2011 doesn’t suggest things will improve soon.

France
On reading my original forecast for 2010 I can’t help but think that I was feeling around in the dark. I defined a critical point in summer 2010 with parallels to 1968 but noted that there was a significant amount of liquidity in contrast to recession expected. In fact what happened was the PIIG problems which contrasted with France’s relatively stable position and tended to consolidated its power in the EU.

On the other hand there were some strikes and protests ( this is France, that is normal). Most notable were pensions strikes in September and October with some limited violence. This was only a month or so out from my forecast and well within my 3 month orb for long term forecasts.

I expected early 2011 to be ok too and so it proves so far. France’s arrival on the front pages has nothing to do with internal problems. Quite the opposite their finance minister is being generally lauded.

However I still expect the year to end somewhat differently.

Germany
As for France my forecast indicated contrasting pictures- on the one hand dramatic shifts on the other gentle opportunities. The cardinal cross of last summer was expected to generate significant tensions.

My overall predictions for the 4 year period 2008-12 seem to be on the money as this article suggests.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/14/germany-new-boom-making-stuff

More specifically, in early 2011 I predicted, ‘we might see internal political divisions regarding such external relations where they are seen to reduce national spirit’.

Perhaps I should have written wealth for spirit. In fact Germany, itself weathering the global economic storms quite well as I expected, became a focus of attention for the Greek and other bailouts with some very strong internal opposition from some traditionalist quarters. Merkel’s party suffered regional defeats in early 2011 due to these bailouts ( although in reality it is German banks that are being protected more than anything).

But there is also the increasing immigration issue, and Germans are having to accept this and adapt with among other things Islamic education and increasing numbers of mosques.

The picture for the remainder of the year is harsher. Especially those final three months again.

Italy
With the notable exception of Berlusconi, Italy’s reputation as a wild card in Europe has been somewhat overshadowed in the last couple of years by Greece, Portugal and even Ireland. The former two were not the subjects of my original predictions though Ireland was. Nevertheless Italy is one of the PIIGS and therefore worth a few more moments of our time.

Although Italy was by no means the worst affected by the 2007/8 crisis, plummeting global demand seriously affected the country’s exports, causing their volumes to contract by 19% in 2009 Furthermore with debt in nominal terms of 1.8 trillion euros, Italy has more than that of Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece combined.

I predicted a relatively calm economic start to 2010, but that the picture would become more complex during the year. Although there were some positive signs around April, the recession would continue right through to December. Others’ forecasts were for a small amount of growth for the year as a whole and these were more or less realised. Economic growth slowed more than forecast in the last quarter of 2010 and Italy’s recovery from the global recession has been slower than that of its euro-area partners such as France and Germany.

However I also identified more government issues. In May, throughout the summer and again in the last quarter.

In fact, the Berlusconi sex scandals abated a little for much of 2010, but returned with a vengeance in November, with under age belly dancers and a defence that managed to offend the gay community for good measure. However, the prediction was proved right as in the two months to July , two ministers and a junior minister were forced to resign over corruption scandals. As a result Fini, the co-founder of the party fed up of the Prime Minister’s reputation split with Berlusconi in July and this led to a vote at the end of the year. The government survived the no-confidence motion by three votes in December Still the Teflon coated leader remains in power.

The astrology works again. I have to concede that it gives a clearer picture of political issues than economic ones- but then, in most cases economically it is an ill wind that blows no-one any good.

Now however Italy is faced with continued global financial imbalances, fall out from the Libya situation – a country with which it has historic connections, and a prime Minister who spends half his time in court. On 7 April 2011 the Economist wrote that Italy’s public debt is the sleeping dog of the euro zone’s crisis. Yet my forecast is relatively positive for the economy- though I ask whether the country is the beneficiary of external funding over this summer. I see good financial restructuring – no I don’t know why either so don’t ask. I don’t move the planets.


Spain
I expected that the people would begin to find their voice in Spain in 2010, after tolerating the economic conditions for a couple of years. Nevertheless my view was that Spain has a greater tolerance for economic pin than others. And I expected the impact of the fiscal situation to be mixed on the economy mid year, though less attractive at the year end and early 2011.

In fact the Spanish economy experienced more of the same in 2010 after 2008-9. In June, following the Euro crisis elsewhere, Spain increased austerity measures to reduce debt. The prospect of wage cuts and pension freezes prompted some street demonstrations. Unions called a nationwide strike ion 29 September, against plans to make it easier for companies to hire and fire workers. But a poll in El Pais estimated that only 9% of Spaniards supported the strike. This confirms my general prediction that despite everything Spaniards wouldn’t react as many nations might. Finally, Spanish property sales stats at the end of the year showed that sales fell 48% between the 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2010 – which amounted to the lowest level of Spanish property sales on record

My prediction for early 2011 was for continuation of 2010. I didn’t however predict the events of May- but then they so far have only changed things slightly and are focussed on the young. Local elections in May 2011 have spurred the young – albeit relatively calmly to protest against Spain's 21% unemployment rate and a record 4.9 million jobless.. It is notable that in some cities protests were timed not to disturb residents. Although there have been some violent incidents.

I expected issues relating to leadership and Zapatero has stated that he will not stand again for office in 2012. This supports my original view that there won’t be a dramatic change this year.


Switzerland
The beginning of the year I surmised would be about relations with other countries and sure enough the government has renegotiated its double taxation agreements with numerous countries, including the US, to incorporate the OECD standard, and it is working with Germany and the UK to resolve outstanding issues, particularly the possibility of imposing taxes on bank deposits held by foreigners. Parliament passed the first five double-taxation agreements, including that with the US, in March 2010.

The cardinal cross, I perceived, would impact the country’s Venus and Mars and may lead to a bankruptcy and that the aspects to the Moon would lead to re-evaluation of the Swiss position. There was no major bankruptcy but the Swiss franc became even stronger. This was a bad prediction though.

I suggested that the first half of the year showed little overall direction which seems to have been the case. The government implemented a third fiscal stimulus program in the year and aimed much at new technology. I thought there may be technology breakthroughs in the last quarter and in fact growth in the later part of the year was headed by the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors along with medical technology and measuring instruments plus the watchmaking industry. Switzerland's benefited from their leading international position in research so overall growth in 2010 was over 2%

I also forecast that Switzerland would try to recover some of its image at the end of the year for competitiveness purposes. And the most interesting prediction was for April 2011 and the country’s Neptune return. Neptune moving especially slowly has been bringing these changes for a while.

I quote from a report re Swiss laws.

‘Until now, Switzerland has been the sole remaining country in Europe without a unified, national set of rules governing civil procedure. This will change dramatically with the entry into force of the CCP on 1 January 2011. The 26 cantonal codes of civil procedure and the Federal Act on Jurisdiction in Civil Matters (CJA) are to be replaced by the CCP. The introduction of uniform rules will lead to increased legal certainty since it will do away with the legal fragmentation that has prevailed in this area up to now’.

How is that for a return to the themes of an original constitution? And compensates more than slightly for the non-existent bankruptcy

2011 is mostly expected to be positive and a survey for Q1 2011 showed growth and optimism amongst Swiss companies. However the strong franc is starting to impact Swiss exports. It is those external financial relations that need managing.


Iceland
My prediction for Iceland having been aimed at failed banks, I didn’t extend it fully over the years to 2012. However I expected more of the same and economically that is what the country has.

However it is worth taking a quick peak at the country’s chart for last year’s Volcano especially from 14 April. Although Pluto hovers at the base of the Icelandic chart it needs help to create such an event. The help in this case was provided by a trine to progressed Jupiter and the progressed Moon sextiling the country’s natal Pluto which was at that time being transiting by Mars. A Saturn square activated by the continued Saturn/ Uranus opposition probably added to the drama with some black smoke.

The most interesting thing I note about the Icelandic chart though is that now Uranus sits on its Descendant and Square the IC–as well as its internal rumblings it is Iceland’s external contacts that we should be looking at .


Greece
I only looked at Greece last year, after the event so to speak, but I did briefly outline how I thought things would play out later. When writing in February2010, I anticipated a new flare up the debt problem later in the year and this occurred on schedule with the austerity measures being determined on 1st May followed by German support. On 5 May 2010, a nationwide general strike was held in Athens to protest to the planned spending cuts and tax increases. Three people were killed, dozens injured, and arrested .

The average Greek person has paid the price and not been happy about it. There has been much dissention as I expected.

Unfortunately I was right again when I anticipated the problems continuing into 2011. However I thought that April and May would bring a more positive view and working towards solutions. Well they are trying to work towards solutions but with limited success. I commented that I believed that the damage would already have been done and that the transit of Uranus to Pluto would be limited in impact. This is not so – the worst of Uranus to Pluto is still in process. The astrology is once again spot on – only my judgement was lacking.