Another post, another continent. This time Asia, or at least some big economic players there.

China
My prediction for China in 2010 saw a big focus on economic issues (as the chart was picked up by the Saturn Uranus opposition), but also themes of deception or confusion over economic matters. But Neptune square the MC could also relate to overexpansion which I didn’t mention. Astrology 1: astrologer nil again!


China actually started the year in big boom state with soaring property prices, among other things. Through the year, the Chinese government took repeated steps to cool the inflationary pressures during the year. Beijing /raised the ratio of deposits that banks must hold in reserve with the central bank nine times since the start of 2010, in an effort to limit the amount they could lend. In the second half of the year it increased interest rates 4 times to 6.5%.

I also noted that the people would make themselves heard over the early summer. And this definitely happened as A series of strikes ( started after suicides at Foxcomm but spreading widely) added to the wage pressures. As a result wages have been rapidly rising in all areas of the country due to labour market pressures.

The cardinal cross activated China’s Uranus and I expected a big shift over the period ( though not just the summer of 2010) I assumed to greater development position. China actually overtook Japan as the second biggest economy at this point – a key point in global economy history.

Then, I thought that things would quieten down in the autumn, some instability would remain due to the Uranus transits. Sure enough the Chinese government stepped in with the rate increases at this time.

In the end, China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew a faster-than-expected 10.3% in 2010, official statistics show. Consumer prices grew 3.3% year-on-year, ahead of China's 3% target. But more troubling for Beijing was that the price of food rose 7.2%.

In 2011 I saw a bit of a state of flux – as if the country was waiting for something more concrete .

This seems to have been the case with no clear indications about whether the attempts to control the boom were working. Now at the end of May 2011 there is a sign that the economy is cooling, The big question now is how much economic growth may slow, before the authorities shift their priority from controlling inflation to revving the growth engine.

Another overall winner for me.

Renminbi
It still seems strange to be considering the currency separately as it is more or less fixed to the dollar. However that could change, and not in the too distant future.


In my forecast I forsaw Pluto trining the currency’s Saturn as indicative of futher managed revaluation in the early part of 2010.


In fact what happened was that beginning in January 2010, Chinese and non-Chinese citizens were given an annual quota to change a maximum of 50,000 USD all of which is closely monitored. Neat- and I can be forgiven for not getting this rather complicated version of change.


With the cardinal cross hitting the chart in the summer I thought perhaps the Renminbi might be allowed to float at this time. However there were clearly still currency pressures that would exist at the year end.


There was no float but total cross-border renminbi transactions hit 58.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2010, 13 times the amount of one year earlier and this is attributed to China's continued efforts to make the currency more international while still controlling any attempts at speculation. Another pretty damn good prediction.


In 2011 I predicted continued changes (due to the Uranus aspects to Mars and Jupiter) and that some of the currency pressure would reduce after April.


In fact in early 2011, China took a further step towards increasing its currency’s global role, allowing domestic companies to move renminbi offshore for investment purposes. Mainland companies can now use the renminbi to launch businesses overseas and fund acquisitions.


Furthermore Rumours suggest that Beijing is now in favour of further appreciation and as of May China is considering letting foreign investors to invest directly in Renminbi.

HK$
We can’t consider the Renminbi without the HK$ these days. Again I recklessly produced a forecast for an apparently fixed currency rather than look at something that would move. I thought that 2010 would prove a critical time for the HK$. I extrapolated to suggest that people would be speculating in property and other HK assets if they couldn’t trade in the currency and that has definitely proved the case. Another one of those gold stars for me.


I did not forsee a float here over the summer – just a gentle shift in attitude and expected the year to end with a strong impetus for change.


In 2011 I saw this desire continue and that aspects through April would be incredibly positive for the currency. In April Neptune would square Jupiter – there would be more change in May.


In April 28 2011 The FT reported that ‘Hong Kong citizens are increasingly turning their backs on the US$ and momentum to reject the dollar peg is developing! Sorry FT but you are three years late in spotting that one!


The FT said that HK People are increasingly choosing to hold Renminbi both in Hk and on the mainland. Property purchases swell every day as it is a way of being long on the Chinese currency.


My goodness me where do they find this stuff? Oh wait….. I already wrote it in 2008. And this is my hobby – I have a day job doing something else. Really, sometimes I wonder what people get paid for. A gold star? I think I deserve a large gold bar. Oh wait again – I bought some in 2007 in anticipation of western currency depreciations. Just as well I listened to the planets and not to the economists isn’t it?

Hang seng
While we are on the subject of HK assets let’s look at the shares.


I expected the early part of 2010 to be broadly positive but for some tricky trading conditions in late Spring. I expected the chart to be hit by the summer Cardinal cross, though, with a lot of volatility, but to hold together after a few weeks and that the latter part of the year might see speculation.


The year started well and then the index fell a little. After recovering it made lows in May from which it didn’t really recover till September though there was indeed volatility. It then soared from September to November.


In 2011, I forecast relatively benign start but with Neptune reaching a conjunction with Saturn in March/April although somewhat mitigated I expected the enthusiasm to wane.


2011 actually started well with some downturn in March, recovering a bit in April but falling again into the end of May


Now I actually think everyone must be trading on my forecast as this was so accurate….

Shanghai Composite
Back to mainland China now. I clearly found reading the signs difficult in this case- I hedged my bets saying that Neptune could mean depressed prices or delusion. Not much of a trading guide I am afraid. Though I went for rises on balance.


I thought there may be a rally in March 2010 and lots of trade in April. The prognosis for the summer was very good – I did pick late July as a notable time . However the themes for the remainder of the year were more diluted.


In fact this turned out to be mainly all garbage. [thank goodness I stuck to gold bars and not Shanghai shares]. The Shanghai Composite tended to move as the Hang Seng. So after some jitters in February 2010 it continued ok until May when it tumbled. So far not so bad. But it didn’t start to recover until July and didn’t rise significantly till October. Being in the market over the summer would have been a mistake, though buying in July would most definitely not. It did end the year down again though.

In 2011 I expected Saturn to depress prices in January 2011 and that this would continue into February and March. May I assessed as mixed and down on balance.
This is more in line with what has happened with only March to April seeing rises and even then not to 2010 highs. May has been a down month


It is back to the drawing board on this one. But although I misread the signs here I still stand by the astrology which identifies the timing very well- if only I could balance all the factors properly to draw the right conclusions.

Japan
My forecast for Japan in 2010 started with its continued need for a restructured economy although the picture was reasonably positive. March suggested quite radical changes might be needed and April that the Japanese people would be vociferous in their demands for change.


In the early part of the year the flagship company, Toyota, recalled more than 10 million vehicles in an embarrassing safety crisis. And it was the global media rather than the Japanese people who made a fuss.


In June its fourth prime minister resigned in three years.


I believed the impact of the cardinal cross would be mixed. But that there would be some positive changes from Neptunian expansion and these themes would continue through the rest of the year.


In fact total GDP Growth for 2010 was 3.9%, that might not sound much but it was one of the highest GDP Growth for about 20 years in Japan. However the bag is mixed, Japan's economy has been hit by a drop in domestic demand, car sales have been hit after a number of government subsidies came to an end, and a new tobacco tax affected demand for cigarettes. Not to mention the impact of the Yen on exports.


In 2011 I expected little change in January and February but that March April was a critical point. However I saw that leading to better times in the summer.


Of course we all know what happened in March 2011. And for that alone I think I can get another one of those gold bars.

The Yen
The conflict between issues of fundamental value and speculation that I identified in 2009 was, I expected, set to continue in 2010. There seemed to be a critical time around April and May in the currency markets ( we know of course now that that related to Greece etc).


After a mixed start what happened was a weakening in April May with a flight to the dollar ( remember it wasn’t just Greece, there was BP and there was a Korea situation too).


Despite problems in other currencies the Yen still looked a better bet over the summer. And there was definitely speculative buying predicted for the latter months of the year.


Sure enough, after its blip in April/May the yen continued to strengthen against the dollar until the end of the year ( give or take some November volatility)


In 2011 I expected faith in the currency to remain strong until February but saw Neptune reaching the Yen descendant in March April while Saturn opposite Jupiter transited the MC, a key turning point. The picture was less clear in May but still the Yen probably looked ok.


In reality – the currency held its position in the first two months, experienced first a rapid strengthening blip in March after the earthquake then a fall into April as things worsened. However by May end we were back to pre earthquake levels.


The astrology bears out against all odds here.

Nikkei
Until 2009 end, I’ve not been as happy with the Nikkei forecasts as with the Yen ones, but we’ll see how 2010 went.


I expected early 2010 to continue the themes of 2009. I expected little trend activity into April. I then predicted a lot of trade and speculation in the market from May.


The reality saw some of the benefits of late 2009 eroded in January and February though with a continued trend. However there was then rise into May when it got back on trend. Over the summer’s cross I couldn’t read the result back in 2008 and couldn’t tell whether there would be a boom or not given conflicting elements.


From early May the market actually fell right through into September , By 15%
I took the impact of Neptune and Saturn in the autumn to be definitely negative though. I had suggested selling earlier than this. In fact there was some uptick- although not much until November. My bad.


Then Japanese shares rebounded from the year's lows on buying led by foreign investors, with their recovery having gathered momentum since November following monetary easing by the


Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Overseas investors were major buyers during this recovery on the view that Japanese shares were undervalued compared with those in other developed markets.


In 2011, there was nothing new to report in my forecasts until March, although a better picture than in late 2010.


This was true – the pattern of November and December was followed in the first two months of 2011


I saw a significant shift in March April (that’s 3 Japanese charts picking up that time – must just be coincidence right?) I described it as a pretty spectacular double whammy – I took this to be economic only but in retrospect what better description of an earthquake followed by a nuclear event to fit with the description of double whammy. I stated that we were picking up an event more important than just about the index, and I even noted that it was picking up consumerism and oil ( broaden that to energy in general and you can see how close astrology can get) – I suggested it raised a lot of questions. Quite, though not exactly those I had imagined.


The market fell 20% practically overnight. Since then it recovered half of this lost value but is actually at the same level as December 2009.


I must say I remain perplexed- how could I misread the cardinal cross so badly yet read this more of less unexpected event so well? It clearly can’t be the astrology it must be my interpretation .


I feel like I misread some elements of the cardinal cross and the following months badly across the board especially as regard share prices. A more normal astrologer would have concluded that markets would suffer across the board and then recover a bit. So perhaps I tried to be too complex.

India
I didn’t forecast much notable activity for the beginning of 2010 in India. More of the issues of 2009, when I had expected hardship and a government that did not really have the representation of the people at heart. I had assumed that a Neptune conjunction would lead to the dissipation of practical intentions.


My first major date was April – when I thought there might be leadership or policy direction changes or at least a challenge to the modern India post early 80s. However any coordinated dissent was felt unlikely.


Around this time the Indian government did backtrack on nuclear promises, although whether this qualifies as being such a major policy change is questionable. As we shall see it does have elements that tie to longer term themes though. A cricketing scandal also looked set to turn into a full-blown political crisis In April.


I thought that there would be another shock to the financial system around May but that the immediate term impact would be low and that the impact of the cardinal cross even weaker.


In fact it was around this time April/May that the RBI started to raise rates again – having dropped them to compensate for the global financial problems.


After a quiet few months, I expected that around October 2010 would be more eventful, and that there may be issues that are not been addressed in the economy. I thought this would be economic- but, in fact, from a media perspective, it related primarily to the shambles over preparations for the Commonwealth games. However that does not really cover everything that was happening as the later economic statistics show ( vindicating my prediction).


As I expected, November was mixed. A repeat of some nastier aspects was offset by some stabilising ones. In December there was reactivation of the transiting Uranus to Neptune by Mars.


In fact India’s biggest ever political scandal came to a head Nov. 14 when the telecoms minister was sacked after he was accused of presiding over the rigged sale of (2G) mobile telephone licenses and bandwidth in 2008. Nevertheless the government rammed through some financial bills despite some deadlocks in the following month.


I had also noted that at the year end there was a Uranus conjunction to the Sun of the Bank of India- that would likely mean changes in leadership or direction. Though I didn’t expect the transits to end until the Spring of 2011.


In fact The RBI had upped its rates six times , doubling them to over 6% since March 2010 to normalise a monetary policy that was on expansion mode since the onset of the global financial meltdown.


The problems, I mentioned above, were there all the time; underneath. While GDP growth was great, unfortunately the wholesale price index soared 8.4% and prices of onions, vegetables and other staples rose even faster. The indices suggest they jumped almost 17% in a year. Exports also declined for 12 months in a row. That is not good for a country where people are as poor as India.


In confirmation of my belief that the themes of 2010 would continue into the new year, in February 2011, the Hindu newspaper on March 17 published a secret U.S. diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks that claimed Singh's party had attempted to buy support in a crucial nuclear vote in 2008.


I saw March 2011 as potentially a turning point for the currency and even in the country. But actually rates continued to rise to offset inflation. And the currency continued to fall against safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc ( though not many others).


May 2011 seemed as if it would be mixed with more tests for the government. According to Newsweek the Indian Prime Minister is the world leader “other leaders love”. India Today, by contrast, found that only 1% of Indians consider him their first choice for prime minister.


However I saw a change coming from June and it appears that the rains have arrived early, are expected to be good and that this will dampen ( no pun intended) food inflationary problems. We need some longer trends to confirm some of my forecasts here.

Sensex
In February 2010 I expected volatility, which would continue until May. A slightly less excitable picture would prevail in the months through July however. August was expected to be a bit of a mixture – more dependent on constituents than the overall trend. October’s aspects suggested that the volatility might return but be calmed by regulatory actions before the year end. These actions would play a bigger part in January 2011 together with volatility and discussion about trends. March2011 I forsaw would be accompanied by some big shifts and a positive outlook.


In fact the year began with falls into February and then some spirited rises and falls into May. What I thought might be a cooling effect on values was however one on volatility and there were rises again into July. August was, true to expectations, more or less flat. There were indeed sudden rises into October and volatility through late November when the market fell a little. But it ended the year not quite at its October high but close which surprised me. However my prediction of government influence does hold with all those interest rate rises.


The index then fell rapidly into February 2011, in line with my expectations and with March as a turning point upwards. However the latter didn’t hold past April. It seems the market doesn’t know how its economy goes and the evidence suggests that the true picture is rather fragile.


I am not 100% confident about my chart for the Sensex and with the Brazil country chart it is on my list of ‘back to the drawing board’.

Indonesia
I expected a lot of imbalances in the Indonesian 2010 economy especially throughout the July and August time in 2010. I also expected impact on the Rupiah and ultimately a fall in its currency after some fluctuations.


I felt that some difficulties would raise their heads in the economy the latter part of the year.


2011 I thought would start quite stable but that there would be a lot of underlying instability to compensate for.


I though the currency might recover but questioned its long term viability.

This is what actual happened.


‘Indonesia’s economy grew at the fastest annual pace in six years last quarter, adding to the case for the central bank to raise interest rates further as inflation accelerates. Rising consumer spending is driving the expansion in the world’s fourth-most populous nation, increasing pressure on the central bank to restrain price gains and protect purchasing power. The central bank has refrained from raising rates since 2008 to support the growth push. But growth was revised down because of domestic-related supply constraint issues caused by weather anomalies that hampered harvests and these caused inflationary pressures mainly from volatile food prices. The inflationary food price problem led to the need to abolish tariffs, import rice and to many more falling below the poverty line. There are indeed significant imbalances that could do with being addressed despite the apparent growth.


The currency had a mixed year. Ending pretty much where it started vs the dollar ( but thus depreciating against other stronger currencies) In August 2010 Bank Indonesia proposed to redenominate the rupiah by truncating the last three zero digits.


In 2011 the Rupiah has strengthened almost every week vs the dollar, although it has still continued to fall slightly vs the Swiss franc just not on the scale that the dollar has.


For a country which I feel my way on, not bad at all.

South Korea
I had already noted that in 2010 there was a key time for South Korea around April and May– though I plumped for economic rather than political drama. The effects appeared to carry over right through into September. I expected some challenges to growth at the end of the year.


In fact we already know that the Korea story of the year was political – and focussed on the relationship between the North and South. The timing of this was pretty much perfect for the prediction and overshadowed any economic reporting at the time


I’ve learnt my lesson on this – when it comes to countries expect the worst- for Korea tough aspects probably mean military matters not a hard day at the factory.


As in many of the other Asian economies we have viewed, South Korea grew strongly – if growing is what so much inflation can be called ( that for another day). However, as elsewhere, the situation is a mixed blessing. President Lee Myung Bak has declared “war” on inflation, with the government announcing price controls and the central bank raising borrowing costs for the third time since the global financial crisis. Furthermore even though South Korea’s economy has recovered strongly from the 2008 downturn, the drivers of that recovery have helped big companies more than individuals and families.


As anticipated South Korea’s economic growth moderated in the fourth quarter as quickening inflation added pressure on the central bank to extend interest-rate increases.

In 2011 with Saturn continuing to inflict hard medicine on the chart, I thought that there might be debt problems in February – there was a double hit of transits then.

However, 2011 started better than expected economically . And of course once again that Saturn wasn’t about the money but about N Korea in February 2011.

Having said that SK did bail out some small banks and there were some bank runs in February: don’t knock the astrologer completely. At least prove you can do better. Yes and over 30 countries and as many currencies and markets too. Any takers? No. Thought not.

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