May 2010 review continued - Asian economies


Now lets move on to Asia – Pacific. We’ll keep the political issues for the next post, but we’ll see whether we need to update our economic forecasts.

Let’s start with the oldie. Japan.

I predicted a change from around February and it does appear to have happened. It was announced that Japan's exports jumped 40 percent in April, rising for a fifth straight month, due to overseas demand for cars and high-tech goods .But retail sales have fallen and Japanese consumers are suffering more than ever. Despite the high level of government debt, however, 95% of government bonds are held domestically making it less vulnerable to the sort of problems Greece encountered.

I suggested that people may be especially restless in May, when Jupiter and Uranus squares the natal moon and there may be political resistance to change y with Saturn square the Moon. There has been dissent and departure by groups within the coalition regarding a US military base and tens of thousands of locals are alleged to have gathered in protest in the last month However I though the people would be much more unsettled due to the economic situation- I suppose it is not the Japanese culture to protest.

What about the summer? Japan has Jupiter at 0 Capricorn, and progressed Mercury at 1 degree. However it gets support from Mercury in Pisces and progressed Neptune in Gemini. It seems that the mixed themes will continue. It doesn’t look like there is too much of a trend here.

The yen chart has progressed Sun and Venus in early Libra and progressed Saturn at 3 Capricorn. So the Saturn/Pluto square has already touched it, and this led to a change of direction for the currency at the end of 2009, yet overall the chart has been positive - it also has prog Uranus at 0 Leo. My expectation the May critical time for currencies was born out by the Euro. Yet, as I suspected despite the anticipated fluctuations, the yen remains stronger than at 1 January vs even the dollar – Uranus was trine the progressed Mars. I don’t expect much trend change in the next few months – though there might be some sudden movements.

The Nikkei has followed the other markets, rising then falling in 2010- it is now 10% below its January level. My predictions were fine for the first 4 months but have gone seriously awry in May. Why? Well I could blame a Uranus square ( Uranus being allegedly about the unexpected), but I don’t subscribe to the view that it can’t be predicted. I am more inclined to blame the fact that I completely failed to mention/notice the square between the natal Saturn and progessed Asc in place from the end of 2009 and Neptune creeping close to a square to them (Of course Neptune is always involved when I make mistakes!). However transiting Saturn will stabilise this in the next 2 months. So I do see some positives in the next months though perhaps not as much as I originally anticipated.

China
Japan was the most difficult of the Asian charts. China is much easier.

The Renminbi has been interesting – with talk of revaluation ( it never got as far as I expected to real revaluation) turning to reverse in a flash after the Euro troubles at right on track for the Uranus square ( yes, you see, Uranus is predictable!). Where is it going now? I still expect change in the rate with Mars/Juputer at 3 Cap right under the cross. That Pluto trine the Renminbi Saturn will be picked up by the prog Moon by the end of June –Surely the dollar/Renminbi can’t resist that? Maybe – the critical degree is 5 not 4.

With the peg in place the currency doesn’t not necessarily follow the country. China has continued its growth so much so that regulation on house prices has been introduced. Elsewhere, the Foxcomm suicides have hit the news but must be put in context of company specifics in a country of 5billion people.
However analysis suggests that the latest generation of migrants are finding the challenges tougher and there is growing anger at the perception that much personal wealth is the fruit of corruption, not hard work. Research suggests Chinese people have faith in their ability to improve their own lives often surpassing respondents in capitalist countries, including the US, but this very optimism can lead to disillusionment. This seems to reflect well the difficulty presented by Neptune square the MC- and the Chinese attempt to shut down media reports internally confirms my original expectations.
Although we have the square across the country’s Uranus at 4 Cancer, the natal Moon and Jupiter in Aquarius may be moderating the effect of the Jupiter/Uranus/ Saturn opposition. As I have said, China is sensitive to Uranus in the early degrees of the cardinal signs so I expect events to accelerate from around the June 26 eclipse onwards. As I say, a few suicides is hardly the stuff of China’s past experience with Uranus, so perhaps there are other issues to come. The apparent moderating influence may turn out to be a catalyst. The trouble is, if China are successful with moderating media coverage, I might never know.

The Shanghai composite after an early positive start to the year, has fallen from 3200 to 2600, mostly in the last few weeks: the regulatory intervention I expected, the trend in May I got wrong again. I am attributing this to Neptune again, square the index’s Mars. However I am still concluding that the market will rise again over the July- August period. Interestingly, this suggests more risk appetite which seems to discount the possibility of generalised financial problems elsewhere

Hong Kong
I have no comments to make about the HK$, other than to say I still suspect changes in the coming few years. Note September’s natal Mercury retrograde for this one

The Hang Seng has fallen from 22k to 19.5k since January, most recently over the last 6 weeks – as the progressed Moon has interacted with Pluto at 4 degrees Capricorn. That moment is gone, but the HS has Mars at 0 Cancer. However , Saturn in early Pisces is supportive but a prog MC at 1 Scorpio is less helpful ( quincunx Uranus and Jupiter). I’ll stick with my forecast of this being a bottom though whether the upturn is now or Autumn, I’m not sure.

India

The country’s industries are booming (compared with the Western ones) But there are problems. Having recovered from a hard year last year, hit by the global recession and last year's poor rains which ravaged farms and hit growth, food price inflation is 16% and they are waiting for this year’s rains. The inflation must be the impact of the Neptune progressed Asc. I suspect they will get the Monsoon now as Saturn goes direct and moves away from its opposition to Neptune and that progressed Asc and its square to the prog. MC.

I am less clear about the impact of Jupiter Uranus square the progressed MC this month. There has, in a way, been a question over the impact of Euro/UK focus derived from the expansion of the last few decades – with the depreciating Euro and sterling challenging the outsourcing industries. But there has been no impact on leadership or government though, despite my expectations. It is difficult to unravel conflicting signs – in this case a square to the Prog MC offset by a trine to the natal one.

I still see little action in the early cardinal degrees. Rather I am not now looking at the recent conjunction with Neptune and the prog Asc. opposed by Saturn and picking up the MCs as representing the start of a new long term cycle focussed on internal consumption rather than exports. There is planned investment in healthcare, infrastructure and skills as well as food guarantees for the poor.

The Sensex
index has fluctuated by about 10% in 2010, with lows in February and May, and highs in early January and early April. It really has just followed the global market trends so far. And overall shows little direction. I originally said that lack of trend would continue over the summer and don’t see reason to change my assessment now.


Australia
I really don’t have any thing to add to my earlier Australia forecast. A number of rate rises have fulfilled the Saturn square Neptune, Neptune trine Neptune configurations. Australians are less optimistic which given the ongoing growth in the economy is presumably what the rate rises were introduced to do.

The Aussie dollar has weakened vs the US$ dollar, but that is again more a reflection of the dollar strength.

Indonesia
After a relatively good 2009, GDP growth is forecast to rise to 5.5 percent in 2010. For the full year, exports are forecast to rise by about 11 percent, based on the forecast increase in world trade and firm prices for commodity exports.

So far Indonesia has been doing ok this year. And the Rupiah has kept up with the dollar, more or less. But I expected the Indonesian economy to be affected by the upcoming squares, with prog Venus and Neptune in early Libra. Still, there is one thing I missed before, the Moon in early Sag suggests that the people still aren’t too affected. We’ll see, I’ll stick with some difficulties in the coming 3-4 months but I could be wrong and the country could continue to shine.

S Korea
With an MC and progressed Asc at 29 of the mutables, Korea has been a bit in the news in the last couple of weeks ( as transiting Uranus did its work) but this is about economics – we’ll do international relations problems elsewhere.

Growth Is expected to be more than originally forecast . Things have been going well economically this year and the Won has not moved significantly vs the dollar ( and I have done little work to merit a forecast of it).

I mentioned engineering advances and it appears that ‘ Korea’s profile as a peaceful nuclear power has risen with the announcement of a deal for its first ever export of a nuclear power plant—to the United Arab Emirates. Since that announcement, Korea has reached an agreement to build a research reactor for Jordan and hopes to win a contract to build a reactor in Turkey as well’

And it also appears that SK is currently in talks with China and Japan about economic free trade area.

I shouldn’t laugh but I wrote ‘Technical problems might surface and apparent breakthroughs turn out to have side effect’. Unfortunately news comes this week, as Uranus and Jupiter transit the MC, of a couple charged for starving their child due to an internet addiction :SK is the world leader digitally and apparently internet addiction is becoming a big problem.

The good old cardinal cross picks up SKs Venus at 2 Aries as well as Pluto at 4 Cancer (and Jupiter at 5). It also activates a square between progressed Uranus ( 1 PI) and Mars (3GE). More news on all fronts should continue.

Comments