Bordering on conflict- May 2010 political risks update

Economics is one thing. Writing about controversial political situations is another. An update on my three key risk areas is in order, but I will be brief and circumspect.

India and Pakistan
My view of Pakistan has been relatively correct. My original prediction was for continued internal problems, but little cross border open dispute.
But I was mistaken about the Indian internal political situation in the first half of 2010. The government is intact. However The Maoists, who apparently do seek to overthrow the Indian government, have stepped up attacks recently. In April, they killed 76 security personnel in Chhattisgarh state. Although they deny yesterdays train disaster, it is clear that what has happened is in line with the Uranus transit etc discussed.
I have nothing to add to that at this stage.

Israel and Iran

Always sensitive, I tread on eggshells when I write about these two. However there is little concrete to say. Iran, after its internal issues last year, has been in the background recently, though there have been pushes for more sanctions during this spring.

The chart for the summer seems relatively quiet though. September looks a bit more unsettled. Still one can’t be sure how wide the orbs might be on this one and Mars could trigger events in late June – 1st July or in early August.

Israel’s immediate issues continue to be with Palestine. But it has been stepping up its capacity to fight externally. "This capability can be used for a war on terror in Gaza, for a war in the face of rockets from Lebanon, for war on the conventional Syrian army, and also for war on a peripheral state like Iran," said a Israel spokesman. It does seem to be itching for action. But even Israel has less in its chart in the early cardinals than in the later mutables so we could see very little action even from them for a few months. Although one can’t totally ignore the dates mentioned above, given that the two have survived much worse transits by keeping to rhetoric rather than guns, I am hopeful that we don’t have problems here yet.

North Korea and S Korea
I considered NK in isolation before and only looked at SK’s economy. I did however spot the potential for political conflict in the SK chart.

‘By April the picture evolves a little: Saturn and Uranus make an opposition across the progressed ASc/Des axis and square the progressed MC. Uranus was square this point when NK separated so its an important point for the nation politically’

But in my NK analysis, I was much clearer, I wrote ‘In April there is a suggestion that there will be a slight show of military force- Jupiter opposes the Sun and Squares progressed Mars, picking up that Pluto and Sun too, and with Saturn once again square the Ascendant axis there is controlled tension within and outside’.

I should have noted the connection between the two remarks!

While I completely believe NK capable of the act, I don’t understand why the existence of a missile that they sell to other countries is evidence of NK direct culpability. Clearly I have no understanding of such subtleties. China hasn’t actually accused them, I find that interesting too.

However my reticence aside, further, under NK, I wrote:
‘The cardinal square over the summer of 2010 picks up first the country’s Saturn and then the Uranus/ascendant. This is a very unstable time- when there could be significant aggression by or against NK. ……………….’ Unfortunately, this still holds.


SK have MC at 29 PI, Prog MC at 29 GE, Prog Asc at 29 VI. Uranus has gone over this point but Jupiter is here and Saturn has yet to cross the point. Pluto opposes its Pluto and will be picked up by the coming June 26 eclipse. Neptune hangs around the SK Uranus, amassing force perhaps?.

I doesn’t really help to be right does it? I hope nothing further develops but it doesn’t look too good.


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