I did review my forecasts to the end of August in early September so in general I won’t repeat that analysis, except where it is part of an ongoing trend. So we are looking at what I forecast for September to December 2008, which as we know was a very quiet and boring time in the world financial markets!!
General – In background part 1
My overall forecast was for interventions which would “keep the plates spinning” etc, which in effect they did. Though even I did not expect quite such a Herculanean task in order to do so.
My greatest fault here and in all my analyses was putting a positive spin on the impact of Jupiter and thus failing to see how bad the situation could get with Uranus opposing Saturn and the lunations on Neptune. I should have remembered from personal experience that Jupiter is not always a benefic, sometimes it just makes bad things even worse!
One of my best forecasts was Iceland, but I posted that after the events so can’t prove conclusively when I did the work.
Oil
Another of my greatest successes was also certainly my greatest single failure. I called the top at the time of the eclipses correctly but failed abysmally to identify the subsequent huge decline. A/E
Currencies
In order that I might get out my country and currency forecasts one by one, I did not do currency pairs, but relied on the overall individual forecasts to get a feel for relative strength. It makes the review harder but overall it is possible to see where I was most negative or positive.
USA/US$
I certainly forecast activity from the August eclipse onwards. But I didn’t get the direction right against the Euro in particular, (and to a lesser extent the Renminbi) though I did vs Yen etc. Interestingly I did spot that the Fed would be quiet over the summer –though the US chart was not, though I did not manage to identify this would be because Paulson at the Treasury was doing all the work. I didn’t really write anything about September in the dollar chart, though I was right that the major rate cuts would not take place then, but later. Also the events did not affect any of the longer term trends so it would be easy to miss. I did spot that November was not too bad but that December might see further challenges to dollar values.
B
UK/Sterling
My forecast for the UK was generally bad – so that was pretty much correct. And I did emphasise September in this case.
A
Euro and Euro countries
I identified that the benign effects of recent years had ended and that it might be undermined in August and thereafter ( though again I failed to spot the dollar strength against the Euro), but overall did not expect much action until 2009.
I also looked at France and Ireland in the summer and correctly noticed that France would not be in crisis mode in 2008, and that Ireland would not have any notable changes in policy or public dissatisfaction until around December despite the property price falls.
Overall that is not bad for the Euro forecast. It has been somewhat mixed, with the real impact economic impacts on the Eurozone yet to be identified
B-
Swiss Franc
I did not look at this until October so only a few months of forecast to look at. I did foresee the split between Swiss safehaven status and fears for its banking industry which led to the Franc stopping tracking the Euro so closely in mid October to mid December. I was uncertain about this chart when I did the forecast as I couldn’t see themes clearly but that does seem to be borne out by the mixed impact so far.
B
Japan/Yen
This was my greatest success. Not only did I spot the leadership issues in August, I correctly forecast that stimulus would not be effective but that the Yen would regain its strength of March from September/October on, yet its gains would be less in December.
A
China/Renminbi
I managed to identify that the patterns of the previous few years were changing and that there would be negative financial effects on the people and influence from the rest of the world, and even the inflationary measures. But I totally failed to identify how exactly this would all play out and the extent that it would dampen currency appreciation. I was not nearly negative enough on China as a whole for this period.
D
Hong Kong $
Given the peg my forecast for this in 2008 was merely introductory.
Markets
Although I did my forecasts for each market individually they show a lot of common themes, which were borne out, but in no case did I manage to identify the extent of the falls that were to come.
Dow
I spotted the importance of 15th September in this forecast but what I called merely volatility turned out to be a one way decline. I underestimated the impact of Saturn square the Dow Pluto. I also expected a boost in November , and though that was true in the sense that a bottom was reached in the month, I was talking as if this was from a higher level. Nevertheless I did head my analysis “bi-polar bear” so I must have been picking up the trends in some way.
C+
Nasdaq
I correctly forsaw the two markets continuing in tandem with the flurry of activity mid September and that some stability would ensue during November, but again the magnitude of events escaped me.
C
FTSE
I wrote “Saturn on the Ascendant is never a sign of optimism” for September October- a bit of an understatement and again saw November as a bit of a turning point in terms of stability, which it was in the end.
B+
Nikkei
This is actually funny to read. I correctly forecast that a recovery in the index in August would fail to get off the ground and that there would be continued nervousness to October and that maybe it was because the focus was events elsewhere. All reasonable predictions. But I wrote it off as potentially being a bit dull. Nothing could be further from the truth. So my forecast that things would be better in December seems a bit redundant even if correct.
C-
Shanghai Composite
The Asian markets are a little different because the extent of the declines post August were not as great as those in the year preceding. Indeed looking at a chart of the index for calendar year 2008 the period September to December looks relatively flat! Indeed it does not track the Western markets. As a result I did quite well on this index. I correctly picked a short term bottom in August followed by rise in September . I then forecast a rally in October but it was later than I expected in early November ( though as I have said before these are long term forecasts and accuracy of that degree can’t be expected given the fact that I ignore inner planet movements for trends), I did suggest profit taking in December which would have worked just fine.
A-
Hang Seng
The Hang Seng pretty much mirrored the Shanghai Comp during this period. Although I identified some difficult aspects, I expected no major change in direction, which proved wrong – the market fell in September/October. However I forecast a positive turning point 12 months on from the October 2007 peak which was pretty much spot on when the market turned up in late October 2008. I thus forecast rises to the end of the year but urged caution as the indicators were a little mixed. That proved fairly accurate too.
General – In background part 1
My overall forecast was for interventions which would “keep the plates spinning” etc, which in effect they did. Though even I did not expect quite such a Herculanean task in order to do so.
My greatest fault here and in all my analyses was putting a positive spin on the impact of Jupiter and thus failing to see how bad the situation could get with Uranus opposing Saturn and the lunations on Neptune. I should have remembered from personal experience that Jupiter is not always a benefic, sometimes it just makes bad things even worse!
One of my best forecasts was Iceland, but I posted that after the events so can’t prove conclusively when I did the work.
Oil
Another of my greatest successes was also certainly my greatest single failure. I called the top at the time of the eclipses correctly but failed abysmally to identify the subsequent huge decline. A/E
Currencies
In order that I might get out my country and currency forecasts one by one, I did not do currency pairs, but relied on the overall individual forecasts to get a feel for relative strength. It makes the review harder but overall it is possible to see where I was most negative or positive.
USA/US$
I certainly forecast activity from the August eclipse onwards. But I didn’t get the direction right against the Euro in particular, (and to a lesser extent the Renminbi) though I did vs Yen etc. Interestingly I did spot that the Fed would be quiet over the summer –though the US chart was not, though I did not manage to identify this would be because Paulson at the Treasury was doing all the work. I didn’t really write anything about September in the dollar chart, though I was right that the major rate cuts would not take place then, but later. Also the events did not affect any of the longer term trends so it would be easy to miss. I did spot that November was not too bad but that December might see further challenges to dollar values.
B
UK/Sterling
My forecast for the UK was generally bad – so that was pretty much correct. And I did emphasise September in this case.
A
Euro and Euro countries
I identified that the benign effects of recent years had ended and that it might be undermined in August and thereafter ( though again I failed to spot the dollar strength against the Euro), but overall did not expect much action until 2009.
I also looked at France and Ireland in the summer and correctly noticed that France would not be in crisis mode in 2008, and that Ireland would not have any notable changes in policy or public dissatisfaction until around December despite the property price falls.
Overall that is not bad for the Euro forecast. It has been somewhat mixed, with the real impact economic impacts on the Eurozone yet to be identified
B-
Swiss Franc
I did not look at this until October so only a few months of forecast to look at. I did foresee the split between Swiss safehaven status and fears for its banking industry which led to the Franc stopping tracking the Euro so closely in mid October to mid December. I was uncertain about this chart when I did the forecast as I couldn’t see themes clearly but that does seem to be borne out by the mixed impact so far.
B
Japan/Yen
This was my greatest success. Not only did I spot the leadership issues in August, I correctly forecast that stimulus would not be effective but that the Yen would regain its strength of March from September/October on, yet its gains would be less in December.
A
China/Renminbi
I managed to identify that the patterns of the previous few years were changing and that there would be negative financial effects on the people and influence from the rest of the world, and even the inflationary measures. But I totally failed to identify how exactly this would all play out and the extent that it would dampen currency appreciation. I was not nearly negative enough on China as a whole for this period.
D
Hong Kong $
Given the peg my forecast for this in 2008 was merely introductory.
Markets
Although I did my forecasts for each market individually they show a lot of common themes, which were borne out, but in no case did I manage to identify the extent of the falls that were to come.
Dow
I spotted the importance of 15th September in this forecast but what I called merely volatility turned out to be a one way decline. I underestimated the impact of Saturn square the Dow Pluto. I also expected a boost in November , and though that was true in the sense that a bottom was reached in the month, I was talking as if this was from a higher level. Nevertheless I did head my analysis “bi-polar bear” so I must have been picking up the trends in some way.
C+
Nasdaq
I correctly forsaw the two markets continuing in tandem with the flurry of activity mid September and that some stability would ensue during November, but again the magnitude of events escaped me.
C
FTSE
I wrote “Saturn on the Ascendant is never a sign of optimism” for September October- a bit of an understatement and again saw November as a bit of a turning point in terms of stability, which it was in the end.
B+
Nikkei
This is actually funny to read. I correctly forecast that a recovery in the index in August would fail to get off the ground and that there would be continued nervousness to October and that maybe it was because the focus was events elsewhere. All reasonable predictions. But I wrote it off as potentially being a bit dull. Nothing could be further from the truth. So my forecast that things would be better in December seems a bit redundant even if correct.
C-
Shanghai Composite
The Asian markets are a little different because the extent of the declines post August were not as great as those in the year preceding. Indeed looking at a chart of the index for calendar year 2008 the period September to December looks relatively flat! Indeed it does not track the Western markets. As a result I did quite well on this index. I correctly picked a short term bottom in August followed by rise in September . I then forecast a rally in October but it was later than I expected in early November ( though as I have said before these are long term forecasts and accuracy of that degree can’t be expected given the fact that I ignore inner planet movements for trends), I did suggest profit taking in December which would have worked just fine.
A-
Hang Seng
The Hang Seng pretty much mirrored the Shanghai Comp during this period. Although I identified some difficult aspects, I expected no major change in direction, which proved wrong – the market fell in September/October. However I forecast a positive turning point 12 months on from the October 2007 peak which was pretty much spot on when the market turned up in late October 2008. I thus forecast rises to the end of the year but urged caution as the indicators were a little mixed. That proved fairly accurate too.
Overall I give myself a B+ for this one – getting a turning point within a couple of days when doing a long term forecast is very very satisfying.
Others
Most of my other forecasts took place too late in the year to be worth reviewing. I was pleased with my Sensex assessment though. When I did it I couldn’t work out what would close the market – but close it did.
I am also interested in the Russian forecast as it shows Russia most severely impacted of the countries I surveyed. Currency wise so far that has been so. Now we need to see what happens in 2009. More of the same or a reversal?
On balance then I am both pleased and disappointed. I got the timings right better than I expected and on balance had more successes than failures. But I missed the almost universal market fall in September and the fall in the oil price – the latter is almost forgivable since I did call the top of the bubble, but the former is a completely unforgivable mistake- particularly since I picked up that the charts were shouting Mid September.
Most of my other forecasts took place too late in the year to be worth reviewing. I was pleased with my Sensex assessment though. When I did it I couldn’t work out what would close the market – but close it did.
I am also interested in the Russian forecast as it shows Russia most severely impacted of the countries I surveyed. Currency wise so far that has been so. Now we need to see what happens in 2009. More of the same or a reversal?
On balance then I am both pleased and disappointed. I got the timings right better than I expected and on balance had more successes than failures. But I missed the almost universal market fall in September and the fall in the oil price – the latter is almost forgivable since I did call the top of the bubble, but the former is a completely unforgivable mistake- particularly since I picked up that the charts were shouting Mid September.
Overall then “B-. Some good work but must try harder to make connections between elements of the course-work!”
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