China
Of course China is the birthplace of the main 2020 event. I
did say it would be a year of more drama with shocks to come with longer
consequences. You can say that again.
My forecast for January was odd – saying that huge support
for the Chinese leadership was combined with belligerence. Of course in
retrospect we see the combination of military lockdowns and international
opinion at this time as the seriousness of the virus became clear- contrast the
resentment that the information had been suppressed with the admiration for the
quick hospital building etc.
I then said that the next 3 months would be more mixed
with continuing economic issues as well as some aggressive action (economic
warfare rather than anything more). It is a pretty reasonable forecast as we
have the continued restrictions in country as well as the US/China trade
issues.
I thought that May
and June are merely a continuation but with less drama which appears about
right.
85%
Renminbi
2020 is another year of active trade and exchange.
January did see the expected
continued swings and I correctly noted that there are big forces at play
but they are not pushing the currency in any one direction now –i.e despite
events the currency was not significantly affected.
I thought February would see more of the same (volatility
and adjustment but little trend), and it did.
I also thought that March to May would see more adjustment, especially of interest rates
and other policy measures to contain the uncertainty and this was the case as
the currency fell somewhat ( it does not move very much normally so small trend
movements are noteworthy)
80%
Shanghai Composite
I said that 2020 would be a very serious year when the
country and the market is quite controlled.
I forecast January would see a key turning point and this
happened in the last week. February did indeed see more of the same as the market fluctuated without
clear direction.
. I then said that
March through to June would see big movements of capital which affect
the market and different components in different ways. However I predicted
major increases in value overall when in fact March saw a big fall. The
remaining part of the period has seen gains however.
70% - mostly good but offset by the wrong direction
HK$
I didn’t have much to say here – obviously January and
February 2020 did see a greater intensity in global pressures on value.
I also thought March to June would see this escalate
further. There was some minor strengthening But now events re China are
creating the restrictions I expected.
70% - not a particularly bad forecast just not very
extensive
Hang Seng
Although the market did dip a little in late January overall
the expectation that the 2 early months of
2020 would see confusion and may a tricky period for investors, the
general trend would be for relative stability and continued support for the
index and this overall was so.
However I said March to
June would be more mixed, but again there is support and the index fell
but then held its value in April and May.
I made the interesting comment that running the index is
more problematic than holding it now. With coronavirus followed by China’s
interference it does seem as if running anything in Hk has been difficult these
last few months.
more or less back where it started but I should have seen
the major move mid March.
65%
Japan
January was just expected to be a continuation of 2019 which
was right.
I thought that February would be somewhat better, despite
the ongoing issues, but in fact the economy was on the brink of recession and
the leadership approval at a low. But I
also thought though that things would be very unsettled at this time. Obviously
the virus created an unsettling situation
I thought that March would see a major breakthrough, and the
government having to make some concessions and the country very much in the
global eye. At this point the country looked vulnerable to a major outbreak and
was subject to criticism but introduced restrictions which were generally
adopted. The Olympics in the end had to be cancelled.
I expected April to
June to be a period of reassessment and adjustment generally and it does seem
that way as cases fall and the country opens up again somewhat.
80%
Yen
Once again I predicted 2020 as a year of big currency
movements. With January 2020 seeing some upside for Yen investors. In fact there
was no a great change overall either way – though it marginally strengthened
over the month.
I thought that February
would be more difficult, with
debt restructuring and interest rate changes and major action by the central
bank. The currency fell, then recovered at the end of the month. There were no
interest rate changes though there was the first emergency package because of
the virus.
I thought that March to June would see this escalate
–and the Yen strengthened rapidly in
early March but fell back by the month end before settling down slowly over
April and May. Further fiscal actions were taken.
70%
Nikkei
I said that January and February would see more volatility,
and although I thought that this may well be accompanied by big rises, the clearest thing is the change of direction
in prices now and sure enough the market which had been steadily rising for a
few months suddenly fell in February.
I thought that March to June would be a mixed period and
that some weakness is possible, but far
less volatility and more trend now. Having reached a bottom Mid March the index
started to rise again and volatility started to decrease as it did so.
85%
South Korea
I forecast that January and February 2020 would be
interesting with difficulties for the government. I incorrectly attributed this
to global financial issues rather than a
global virus though. Korea was one of the first countries affected. But I did
predict that the people would be are broadly supportive of policies and this
was most definitely the case.
It is interesting
that I then said March through to July is even more positive and can overcome any issues. It has been a leader
in beating the virus – despite periodic new outbreaks
90%
North Korea
I expected continued
aggressive or military action in Janaury and February – and a new hardline
military leader was appointed and
continued resistance to renewing talks confirmed this.
I thought however
that the leadership benefits from propaganda and be enabled by events. No doubt
the internal claims that the country is not affected by the virus have enhanced
the leader’s image.
I did not forecast the apparent disappearance of KJU – but
since it seems to have been a non-event in retrospect that is not so
surprising.
I did say that May to July would be a period where the
leader seemed to benefit from huge power
but not without cost to external relationships and this could be nuclear
related –and this appears to be exactly what is happening at the moment with
KJU taking of nuclear deterrant.
80%
Australia
After the fires of 2019 I thought January and February would
see a shift in focus for the people but with positive expectation mixed with
tricky issues for the country . The fires were under control by the end of
January, though there were floods to contend with instead.
However I thought that it would be an excellent time for the
leadership though, particularly the early part of the period and in reality the
reverse was true as the Prime Minister’s approval plummeted then
I thought that March to June would continue the tricky
themes making adjustments due to large forces outside its control!! Couldn’t
have described it better.
And I also said that later it appears to be a time when the
country is generally seen in a positive light and this has been true as
Australia have managed the Covid crisis much better than many countries
75% - would have been more if it wasn’t for that approval
rating
Iran
Iran was the next virus hotspot.
I thought that January and February would be intense with more “assertive” language and a
challenging time. The year began with the country accidentally shooting down a
jet and engaged in conflict ( words anD missiles) with the US. And then the coronavirus
arrived in Iran for February.
I thought that resources might improve during this period,
but sanctions and economic restrictions continued – although the stock market
soared.
I thought that March to July when focus was on the people
and their desire for freedom. This is in retrospect too generic – although no
doubt they are thinking of less restrictions due to the virus it tells us
nothing about the wider country situation.
65% started well then lost its way
Italy
Swiftly on the heels of Iran the virus settled in in Italy
It must be said that once again I nailed it with the most
innocuous comment “2020 is a key year for the country – of course it seems to
be a key year for many countries, but in Italy the theme relates to the way the
country has been and is run much more
than elsewhere.” The focus was very much on Italy and its administration
through the March health crisis.
I expected that
January and February would see
big changes at leadership level but they aren’t created by out and out
conflict of any kind. This was only half right – the government were struggling
to maintain a majority because of issues relating to their election promises
for change.
But then I said that March and April see the themes
continuing with more optimism. Which clearly wasn’t the case – there was little
time to do anything other than deal with the crisis.
However I did identify financial obstacles. I also said
there may also be some seismic ( literally) events that need attending to. Not
literally but certainly metaphorically confirming my more general assessment of
the year.
65% - I am disappointed. I think I was nearly there but just
didn’t nail it
France
January 2020 was relatively quiet in France.
I then said February and March are more challenging. “There
is a situation with other country(ies) which is at odds with the direction
France is moving leading to a bit of a stalemate”. Of course once more I did
not see a virus but the fact that I mentioned other countries and the fact that
I mentioned stalemate ( which is pretty damn close in nature to lockdown) I can
be proud of. But it does underscore how hard it is to read something when there
is an unknown unknown.
Yes again to April to June seeing the international
situation escalate somewhat. However the mention of lack of diplomatic
solutions was a red herring, we will have to see what opening up the country
does for the rest.
80%
Spain
January was not so important as expected for Spain .
I did say that February and March would be a period when the leadership will face some
obstacles, (although it is not one where there is likely to be a change of
leader). Though I can’t claim to have foreseen the lockdown here.
My comments for the later period are rather about the longer
term, and are not yet measurable
70% - not enough detail again
Germany
Of course2019’s leadership issues were key to the start of
the year. But I said by February though the focus shifts back to financial
matters – although this is not entirely true the focus of criticism did reduce.
I then said that March to July is a long period when there
are real global political issues relating to protectionism and nationalism and
which seem to involve the country setting the pace. Of course I did not
identify the underlying virus issue but the rest is spot on.
85%
Euro
Although I thought that
January would have its challenges I thought Euro leadership would be positive – there was
certainly some positive news , but I thought there may be more attempts to
manage rates which did not happen.
I think it enough to say that I said that February would be
a confusing months for traders – just look at the $/Euro chart for February and
early March.
I thought March to June would be noteworthy with global debt issues prominent and
although there were threats to the
value, there were some supporting
factors that suggest that there are grounds for optimism. The large
fluctuations of the earlier period have reduced and the value is on average
holding despite everything.
80%
Switzerland
Not too much to say about the early part of the year in
Switzerland.
I was not however right that March to June could risk that
the people will vote through some radical changes now, not all of which are in
the longer term best interests as the referenda for May have been cancelled.
And it is possible that the initiatives from now will indeed have consequence
albeit not voted on by the people.
I did also mention
that the government would find itself vulnerable and unable to lead properly –
the unintended consequence of the virus actions.
Still one of the weaker forecasts
50%
Ireland
January was quiet in the run up to the February elections.
I thought that despite developments and exciting news in
February, the overall conditions would be
similar to January. The result of the election was a 3 way race and
although the previous government had acknowledged defeat, they remained as
caretakers.
I correctly said that March to July would be the first part
of an almost year long change. I thought
there would be a sense of inertia within government and changes would be fast
and furious but outside their control.
Nicely, though completely serendipitously,
summing up the combination of coalition forming and coronavirus events.
85%
UK
The Uk though is an exception.
I started my forecast
saying that I expected 2020 to be a year with a change at the head of the Royal
family. This so far has not proved to be the case exactly but one can’t ignore
the impact of Harry and Meghan’s decision on the family as a whole.
I also noted that
though it should have been an election year, it was quite possible we
will have had an election earlier in the period- which was a bit of an
understatement really.
I thought that January would start with difficulties, not
just in the UK but globally. Another understatement. I noted that there was a lot of f trade
relating to the UK, possibly due to property market difficulties but of course
it was ( finally) Brexit.
However I thought that February through to April would be mixed. With the focus less on
nationalistic matters and more on royal ones. Initially this was true but
obviously by mid March the questions were over the virus.
Now comes a comment that is fascinating. I said “There is
also another period of deception and misinformation, although this is likely to
be the best thing for the nation as a whole” and “Expect rapidly changing conditions”. It
made no sense when I wrote it but it does now
Nevertheless I got May partly wrong as I assumed the Euro
cup would go ahead, although of course the mood has changed and become less
serious as the month progresses.
80% - some good calls but some weak
assumptions
Sterling
Sterling did indeed start 2020 as 2019 ( post election) ended
with gradual falls and of course there were policy ( Brexit related) changes
afoot.
I noted that February and March would see more of the same
trends, but more focus on debt matters
which by late March it certainly was. Though Debt has been easy to raise so far
at least – there was a time in March when the currency took a real dive vs the
dollar at least.
Then I said that April to June , saw more debt being focus
of the people with policies to manage the currency and restrictions. The
policies were more about funding the economy but basically this was correct too
85%
FTSE
I expected the beginning of the year to be an overall positive, if not entirely rational,
direction and until mid February.
However I said February and March would be as much about the trading itself than the
value of the stocks. But of course what I saw as technology proved to be something
quite different and the value was severely hit.
But I then said April to June still looks positive. I said that I was finding it hard to believe
that people will still be buying stocks so consistently at this point but it
looks like they will. While the market has not recovered they really still are
buying and it has gone up 20%
85%
Greece
I really didn’t read this one right at all saying there was
unlikely to be a worse time to be the leaders in Greece than in early 2020. In
fact things were looking better than in a decade.
But I was right that in March there would be a completely
new environment to contend with.
I was sort of right re April and May. The situation is mixed
and of course coronavirus has created a distinctly difficult situation for the
country/people, although not as bad as in many places and there is indeed hope of economic improvement as the country
comes out of lockdown.
But I also said there is
once again an attempt to unseat the government/leader which doesn’t seem
to be the case at all.
40%
Iceland
I thought that January and February of 2020 are months when
the people are likely to raise most objections and there were strike
votes planned
I thought that Iceland would be only indirectly affected by
events now and there may even be a boost
for the government. There were no cases until end of February but the risk was
good for the government.
Obviously I was correct in saying that March to June would
be a period when people aren’t quite sure what is going to happen but that the
country could harness now to make
progress and it has certainly contained the virus by now.
70 – ok but a bit lacking in depth
.
Indonesia
Moving back to Asia now
My focus for Indonesia in January and February 2020 was (
correctly as it seems) more local . I expected opposition resistance to
government policy which was definitely true.
I also expected some tricky de-stabling matters – there is nothing that
appears obvious other than of course the initial response to the virus threat.
I thought that March to July is similar, with bigger
financial obstacles and the situation
would make the leadership vulnerable to
being overturned, or at least needing an internal shake up. This is more or
less true, the virus has created a need for more debt and the government’s weak
response has been criticised. Although local elections have been postponed it
is expected that the results would not be supportive.
65% - although I was right on some specifics I don’t think I
really grasped the overall situation
Rupiah
I thought that the
currency in January and February 2020 would
not be strongly impacted by events which was indeed true – there been
very little movement in the period. I was also right to expect an interest rate
change ( which happened in February)
However I thought March onwards would be much the same .
There was certainly another interest rate change and also the expected
volatility and overall it does look like the currency will end up
75% - good forecast just not enough of it
India
I saw January as the
beginning of turning point, with possible impetus outside the country. The new budget was
presented just at the beginning of the next month so it will certainly be a
turning point and of course external events were about to change things too.
I expected February and March to be dramatic, with unexpected instability and of course the
virus crisis led to a lockdown of the 1.3b people in March and huge movement of
migrant workers. There was no need for any actual earthquakes
I was floundering bit
when I came to the April to June prediction . I could see it would be very
difficult for the people but without the understanding of the Virus, I could not pin down the events, . Given this
it was a great attempt I also
predicted financial upheaval which of
course has been a consequence.
80%
Rupee
I correctly thought that January and February would be more
mixed but with a turning point in the value of the currency – this actually
happened right at the end of February.
There were no interest rate changes in these 2 months
though.
I thought that March and April would be again mixed with
stabilising influences offset by
questions over fundamental value. However I underestimated the significant fall
in value in early March ( arguably
though this was part of the February event) although I was right about
volatility.
I was right that May would see this continuing and that
there would be changes in rates and other actions by the bank.
65%
Sensex
I completely blew the January and February forecast for
this, saying that it would not be flat and uneventful months. But it was.
At least I correctly forecast a big shock for investors in
March to May- saying it could be a one off or more likely the start of a shake
up phase that lasts into 2021.
50%
Pakistan
January and February 2020 were expected to see the
focus on the outside world . Otherwise things continued much as 2019
still. And I nailed it when saying there was a sense that things are not
entirely controllable.
I expected the problems to continue March onwards with
external relations more polarised. I forecast the people and government would be over-whelmed. The
coronavirus has indeed made other matters worse, and Pakistan has had to ask
for more aid, added to which they then had a plane crash and there were also
the suggested floods as well. Definitely
overwhelmed and difficult..
85%
USA
Now let’s go to where the action is as I write.
When I wrote “2020 is characterised by a very unstable image
for the country and by continued financial difficulties. But the focus has
moved away from the leadership itself” I didn’t understand it – how could Trump
not be always the focus, but of course although he is still tweeting for all
he’s worth, the population are more worried about the virus and now the protests
than him.
I also said the US may some protection these January and
February it is not likely to escape
difficult debate …… or a sense of helplessness.
It is certain that the status quo will be disrupted. Virus virus virus-
easy in retrospect.
I then said March and April are harder still. The country
seems to be running headlong into fundamental conflict at this time. Of course I did not expect the enemy for
these two months to be invisible. I also thought debt would be important- we
now have much more of it and by the end of the period more short term financial
restrictions are the result.
In May I predicted “a sense of instability although opportunity
to change for the better”. Which is just WOW. I thought
the people should take care over these few months…..
95% one of my best in ages
US dollar
I started with “ the world faces a broader crisis in 2020”.
I said that January does look to be a better month for the
dollar, perhaps shocks elsewhere make it more attractive. There is lots of
currency trade. But perhaps it wasn’t so attractive though it certainly held
its strength.
I thought that February and March would bring challenges and
new developments and actions to reduce
monetary expansion may start in earnest despite misgivings. This was both right and wrong – the actions
were the reverse – flooding the system with funding.
I correctly deduced that April and May would be more of the
same,.
I also mentioned trading swings – though not the exact
timing which was late March.
70%
Dow
Again I noted that 2020 is generally a difficult year and
expecting component changes and trading
glitches but still some positives.
I said that investors would be asking “Where the **** do we
go from here, at the beginning of the year and the index was flat for most of
the first two months, though I expected
problems earlier than there were it was late Feb by the time they kicked in.
I thought that March through to [MAY] would see constant work to ensure that the index does
not become unmanageable with mainly just
lack of direction.
Not bad 75%
Nasdaq
Now this contrasts with my Dow forecast. I said “there is
still an underlying theme that suggests growth in 2020, however it is also a
time when there are huge global pressures”.
I correctly said that January seemed to be a month of heavy
trade and investor confidence despite a challenging background
February and March I thought would see more trade, though I
expected glitches rather than viruses (
wrong sort of virus!) and I thought
that uncertainty would increase and
there would be huge external pressure! Although the signs are not all bad, I
thought that it would result in some significant selling!! Nailed it!!!
Even better I said April is a key turning point in
sentiment. And “ Any movements in value will be huge and trade will continue to
be high volume and erratic”
Biggest market moves of a decade and I called them. Also
note the difference between the Dow forecast and Nasdaq- not easy to get that
right- so many people talk about the market/markets as if they always move in
tandem not just usually!
95%
Canada
I thought that Canada seems mostly to be one step away from
all the major action. I said that there would be some pressure on the people
but if anything this just makes the stability more noticeable.
I thought that nothing in January and February looked
unmanageable.
I then said that March to July would see a permanent long
term change in the country’s economic prospects which of course correlates with
initiatives to help overcome the Covid crisis.
Overall Canada has not been the best at dealing with the
crisis but its has been far from one of the worst
80%
Mexico
I thought that January and February 2020 would be a critical
time for the country and a combination of recession and record violence made
the period very difficult. However I thought that the impact would be from
outside and not affect the people whereas it quite clearly did, although of
course it cannot be denied that external events were about to take over.
I thought that March onwards would see changes from outside
trickle down, with major international funds flows highlighted and the people more restless, with a shift in
focus to the international arena for them which is quite frankly difficult to
argue with !!
65%
Mexican Peso
I said that 2020 would be another kettle of fish altogether.
I thought there were some positive
indicators ( the currency strengthened slight at first)but that there were also
shocks with possibility of significant weakness. The currency fell in late Feb
to mid March significantly.
I thought that March onwards would see the themes continuing with a mixed
picture which sums up April and May fluctuations very well.
80% - could be more but not enough detail
Brazil
I expected January and February to be moderately good for
the government. But I am not convinced that was the case, there certainly seems
to have been opposition to some of his policies.
I saw March onwards as being focused on the people in
general with pressure on the leadership, which we can’t argue with. I also thought
that there would be people who are not prepared to accept the situation
and prepared to stick their heads above the parapet and say so quite
vehemently and sure enough two health
ministers resigned in disgust at Bolsanaro’s attitude.
However I thought that there were clear signs of progress
being made and I don’t think we can conclude that. Brazil forecast fails again.
50%
Real
Once again I forecast that the whole of 2020 would be rather volatile.
But that January and February are not particularly
so, however, especially when compared with elsewhere. I thought that it would
be a good time for the currency though not especially noteworthy. It wasn’t
great – the currency did fall but not significantly.
I then forecast that March to July would see volatility reach a peak. I said it was s
difficult to detect a discernible trend at this time as there is so much
happening. But that there might be a one
off devaluation is proposed. Obviously there was no devaluation but there was
an equivalent fall – whereas many other currencies fell in March only to
recover partly – the Real has continued to plummet as the government messes up
the health crisis.
75%
Argentina
I said that while in January and February 2020 Argentina did
not seem to be at the eye of the [international] storm, it would see the financial
conditions that characterised 2019 continue with detailed adjustments and the result may be
hardship and possibly pushback from the people. Obviously what happened was
that country did not yet have a Covid problem but the financial situation from
2019 did continue and the country came to the brink of default.
I definitely made an error in saying that in March to June would
see less restriction, but was probably correct that the people were aligned with the government over
the virus
So far though there is little positive economic news but we
aren’t at the end of the period yet.
65%
Argentine Peso
I predicted that January and February would see currency focus elsewhere. However I expected big movements
in the currency but there were none –
though of course there were big movements in the governments financial plans
these were not reflected in the exchange rate. Perhaps after such big falls in
the previous years the situation locally was stabilising.
I then thought that the position would be accentuated in
March onwards, and although it was generally a difficult time, I saw it as been a generally highly positive
for the currency. This is of course both very wrong vs the dollar as the currency has continued
to fall but also interesting because compared to other emerging currencies (
e.g. the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso)
it has been a much more stable option.
45% used to do much better on my Argentine forecasts
Venezuela
I predicted that 2020 would be the beginning of 12 months of
huge change in the. I though that January and February would see the beginning
of this.
I thought that March onwards would be less intense than the
first two months and again now without some disturbing upheaval and that
financial flows would be better.
But April 17th
“Venezuela suffers its worst crisis since Maduro took office. The U.S. has a
price on Maduro’s head, a fleet of warships patrols the waters around the
country, the coronavirus pandemic rages, gasoline shortages threaten food supplies,
and a lack of liquidity makes it nearly impossible to resolve the crisis.
Venezuela is caught in the middle of an international power play by the United
States, Russia, and China ( wikipedia) and in early May there was an alleged
incursion to overthow the government”.
The added complication of coronavirus and the low oil price
has added to the problems.
The details I forecast were therefore not realised though
the overall picture I drew was much closer to reality.
60%
Bolivar
Once again I said it is all happening in 2020!
I thought that January and February 2020 would see a great
swing in the position, the last stage of a 12 year cycle. Whereas actually the
currency was relatively stable vs the last few years. I suppose in a way that does tally with the forecast.
However I then said March
onwards continued the theme with the possibility of huge swings in value though I was not clear which direction this
would take. The currency has fallen again due to the oil situation which has
reversed the benefits of late 2019 early 2020.
40%
Saudi Arabia
Moving back to the Middle east and some of the countries
that are on a lter virus trajectory
I thought that January and February would see big pressure
on the leadership and challenges to the country’s foundations. That was an
interesting forecast as Saudi was forced to close its shrines in late February.
I thought that despite any strong arming the people would see positives and for
the most part as elsewhere people are accepting of restrictions. Of course the
actions of Saudi also contributed to the oil price falls.
I thought that March to June would see the people in the
mood to protest but that has not been the case – although economic difficulties
are enough to create it. I also said that much could be achieved if the
energies are harnessed in the best way and recently there have been efforts to
improve human rights.
70%
Israel
I expected the
country in the limelight this
year. I thought that January and February would still see pressures on the
leadership and a continued sense of deception or confusion for the people
. And sure enough the investigations
into Netenyahu continued
I also thought that things would be shaken up – and there
were decisive actions re the settlements
I expected the situations to
escalate in March to July. On the
one hand I forsaw large power issues- confirmed by the elections and by the
early lockdown decision taken- all of which did benefit Netanyahu who is once
more leading the government.
85%
Russia
I thought that January and February 2020 would be the start of a year which is full of
excitement and drama in the country.
I thought that the leadership would feel under threat and
challenged – but the actuality was slightly different as the government all
resigned in mid January in response to Putin’s plans to change future
successors powers. It was certainly rather dramatic!
I thought that March to June would see better support for the leadership but responses
might get totally out of hand. This is consistent with the arrival of
coronavirus in the country and the associated measures.
I also mentioned that there was likely to be further radical
changes in prices ( oil being the main factor) and there may also be some feeling of helplessness
as recessionary conditions may bite in some areas all of which is true
80%
Rouble
Although I was right that 2020 would be a key year for the
currency, I really didn’t get the direction at all.
I was uncertain about January and February selecting gains as more likely – actually the
currency briefly strengthened insignificantly before falling back below its
December level
In March to June I correctly forecast big international debt
and banking movements but I said this would favour the Rouble which in reality
fell significantly in March and has not yet recovered,
25% ugh
Turkey
I thought January and February would be a very intense time when a lot can happen;though
I thought this likely to relate mainly to economic matters . The economy was
important as at that point ( before the virus) there were signs that the
recession was over. I also said the
other possibilities can’t be ignored and issues relating to fighting re Syria
were in focus at this time.
I then predicted that March to June would see a change of
pace and an uncertain time and one where the leadership may once more feel the
challenge of being pushed to the brink. This fully correlates with the arrival
of the coronavirus which looks like it
will destroy that economic upturn completely
70%
Lira
Again my ( by now) generic statement that 2020 is a
particularly key year for the currency.
I thought that January and February would see pressures from
the outside world causing major falls in
the currency- actually although the currency did fall it was not a large one
merely a continuation of the trend
from mid 2019.
I was however right about March onwards. I said that there
seemed to be a vast amount of funds moving now- enough to undermine whole
markets and economies. I thought that economic shocks would lead to a
continuation of January and February trends, but that there coudl be a big
turning point in these 4 months. This was on the money will a big fall in March
though to May but a turning point from early May.
90%
South africa
I correctly ( though not terribly surprisingly) said that
January and February 2020 see challenges to both the financial position and the
leadership ( related to financial position and long term fundamentals) and sure
enough the government was being criticized both for not being decisive and for
any decisions.
I said that March to June would continues the theme, but now
it is much more dramatic. Of course the added complication of the virus makes
thins even more difficult there..
I did also say the indicators suggest that this is good for
the people in general and in some ways it may have been with more money
available and lockdowns probably helping reduce violent crime ( by 60-80%)
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