FTSE 2017-2020

 
Unlike the UK chart and Sterling my performance on the FTSE all share ( note that predictions are for the all share and not the FTSE 100) was mixed, though I correctly forecast the difficult start to the year as well as the volatility around May /June, but I underestimated its resilience in the autumn.
But I should give myself more credit really: although I forecast big falls in early 2016, I specifically said they would not be like those in 2008. Rather than try to expect perfection from what are very broad forecasts ( as previously noted expected average accuracy is within 3 months)  we should be building on the positives. So where are we likely to go next?
The weakness of early 2016, based on global trade etc,  is now history as we have other things to worry about ( Brexit, Trump). Surprisingly the markets have reacted only positively to the latter, normally such uncertainty ( and love or hate him you can’t deny the uncertainty) would lead to stagnation or volatility. 
 
2017
January and February 2016 aren’t therefore too bad at all, there is support for prices and on balance I’d expect the markets as a whole including the FTSE to be pretty flat at this time.
There will be lots of position readjustment going on in the background.
March to May in the UK is obviously going to be dominated  by the Brexit trigger. Although I don’t expect any significant falls at that time ( there is evidence for optimistic buying as well as support on the downside ) I do think there could be some surprises leading to significant volatility.
From June to August the picture is more mixed. I’m seeing a similar picture to the US, where the focus is on detail and possibly glitches. There may be some days when trade is restricted and question over the suitability of the whole index.
September sees a continuance of the uncertain conditions. However the index could receive a short term boost then as investors are seeing relative value in the market.
October and November are much trickier. Investors are questioning fundamentals. Despite there being a huge dollop of great expectations perhaps stoked by  the media there are also some who are more than keen to sell.
On balance I expect rises now, but they aren’t without a lot of questions about whether they are justified.
This mood continues into December and although the early  part of the month is positive, the latter part may see a pull back.
2018 
January and February 2018 are similar to the end of 2017. There is still some concern but for the most part this is a good time for the index/market and I would expect increases in the level. 
Similarly in March and April , when we could see a lot of trading. There may be slightly more volatility than in the previous 2 months but overall the direction seems to be up.
May to July is a trickier period. But a key one. The focus though is on constituents rather than the whole.
I expect very little trend now.
In August to October things are more challenging. While there is no sign of noticeable falls, there will be problems. I expect technical of information type issues.
Then in November and December the mood shifts again. Although there is less volatility than previously, there is more focus on the market. Opposing forces seem balanced, hiding a fight between underlying strength versus growth stocks so that a is lot going on with not too much overall direction.
 
2019
 
January and February 2019 see more of the power play between the two types of stock.
Interestingly, although I don’t see much movement in the overall index at this time, I think trade will be hefty as investors shift their exposure.
The impact of this may lead to some dips but no substantive falls.
If trade increased in the early part of the year, this is nothing compared to March through June. Everything is magnified including trading volumes. The big question is about inflation, ( including exchange rates) and how this will impact the market. There are some pretty powerful factors which suggest potential bubbles but there are also offsetting issues pulling values down.  Certainly a time for trade, we’ll need to be closer to the date to be sure of the net direction.
July through to October sees more of the same, but now it is clearer that it is volatility that will dominate.
There is certainly a lot of market excitement throughout the whole period.
Then in the last 2 months of the year that seems to increase, it looks like there is a lot of buying.
2020
While the mood of 2019 continues into the next year, 2020 starts with a slightly different tone. Events elsewhere are likely to be determining trading . Still there is still an overall positive, if not entirely rational, direction.
February and March are as much about the trading itself than the value of the stocks. There may be questions about the technology.
April to June still looks positive. I am finding it hard to believe that people will be buying stocks so consistently but at the moment I am not seeing anything to suggest otherwise.
July to September is a tougher period. This time there may actually be falls as the market is re-evaluated. This is an unstable time.
October and November are full of drama and volatility. Questions about overvaluation remain, but some are still buying. Others, however have  doubts and are holding back. The situation is filled with unexpected trades that will transform the index and market.
The drama still hasn’t ended in December. Volatility dominates and investors are all over the place. This is a double whammy effect. There is a sharp shift in mood, though, which will not fully manifest trend-wise until 2021.
 
Picture:By Thomas Rowlandson (1756–1827) and Augustus Charles Pugin (1762–1832) (after) John Bluck (fl. 1791–1819), Joseph Constantine Stadler (fl. 1780–1812), Thomas Sutherland (1785–1838), J. Hill, and Harraden (aquatint engravers)http://www.georgeglazer.com/prints/aanda/historic/londoninv/londoninv.html" rel="nofollow">[1]
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