The Shanghai composite peaked in October 2007 prior to the
financial crisis in 2008 and now stands at only half the levels it reached
then.
2013
The index has, along with all the major markets, risen
between November and February. However it has dipped in the last week
And the month as a whole has not seen much of a rise
April is less dramatic with a consolidation of any gains.
However there is the beginning of a new mood in the market which could be the
start of a long term trend. This will take some time to develop though so at
this stage investors should be looking for indicators of what that long term
influence will be
The next couple of months promise to be more mixed, with no
discernible trend. There should not be too much pullback with the market
continuing consolidation.
July and August see a return to the themes of April
The year ends with no change to the underlying situation but
with more interest in the market from the international community.
2015
There is likely to be a rise in the index as 2015 starts.
This is partly due to momentum which has been building all year and partly due
to the new interest from the wider investment community. Not all the indicators
are positive, however, and there is continued volatility, but the balance seems to be in favour of
credibility in the market rather than fear of its risks.
More volatility seems to be the picture in March to May.
Again there are global influences at play that are affecting the market at this
time. However despite all the uncertainties, there still seems to be a belief
in the opportunities here.
The period around June and July is quieter with a reduction
in the fluctuations and no discernible trend
The next noteworthy time is December. Again we see
indications of external influences on the market, but this time they are likely
to be less enthusiastic. It might not be a loss of faith in the index, but
rather a concern with other matters than means that there is a reduction in
interest in it.
The first quarter of 2015 probably sees nothing new
happening. The market is still absorbing the events and changes of the previous
2 years . There is a chance that there might be substantial speculation at this
time, but the signs are not 100% certain and it could also be that there is little
direction in prices. There is more likely to be a boost in the period around
March and April than in the first two months.
Although there are background favourable indicators ,then
come a few months when the market is restricted again by international
matters. It isn’t really till September
that trade will again receive another boost. By the end of that month there
should be much more interest in the market again and more volatility.
The last few months of the year see a return to the conditions
of January to April. However, although the indicators remain mixed, the net
effect is more likely to be negative at this time, with doubts and restrictions
dominating. By now, those longer conditions will have established themselves
and the new view of the index will be embedded. It will be performing a very
different role to that in 2012 when this forecast began.
The beginning of 2016 is calmer again. There is positive
sentiment but it is unlikely to be destabilising and the market will probably
just hold its value through January and February
March, however sees a return to some volatility and perhaps
even some speculative rises . However there are also forces at play to restrain
such increases and so a clear trend is unlikely to develop before May.
In fact it is likely that things will have quietened down a
little by June. While all the background influences still remain intact, they
are operating at a much lower degree and so leading to less excitement
regarding the index; merely just some pleasant positive feelings.
While there might be a little more excitement in August and
Sept, on balance the calm continues.
And even October which is a more upbeat month still has a
feeling of calm about it.
Indeed it is not till around December that there
is a clear change of mood. At this time there is potential for huge volatility,
although it may be tempered a little by conditions elsewhere.
Comments