Japan 2013-16

 

It would be difficult to find a chart more different from the ones we’ve looked at already than the Japan chart. While those chart’s show increasing tensions from the global configuration at the moment, much of the work in Japan is past for a while at least. Indeed, the most prominent factor is currently one of action. And this could hardly be a better indicator of how the country has started 2013, with bold plans to stimulate the economy and its arguments with China.

Japan has a number of key characteristics:

A resonance to the global oil based consumer economy of the 20^th century

A tendency to hide its feminine side

Ability to harness technological change when certain conditions apply

Excitability, quick to anger and react to external forces

 

 2013

In early 2013, despite the revival of a drive for action, there are still some obstacles, that will continue the inertia that the country has experienced for a little while longer.

Things are quite stable around march time, although behind the scenes there are some changes – which might particularly relate to the role of women in Japanese society and Japan’s acceptance of its feminine element – this is a theme which will continue in the background over the next decade until it finally reaches resolution in about 2022

 In April to June the focus turns back to the external international trading environment, but there is little evidence of much impact from internal changes yet.  However there will be increased emphasis on the need for action again by June.

But really, there isn’t much to talk about over the following few months as it is not until December that some turning points are reached. At this point we will start to see some lessening in the on-going inertia that the country has experienced ( although the country will continue to reflect some of the negatives of the advanced mass market economies as this is built into its DNA) and there may be some increased protectionism and nationalistic issues arising.

 

2014

As 2014 progresses we should see the beginnings of slow restructuring in the Japan economy and particularly its internal debts which relate to the savings of its population.

The year also starts with some difficulties for the leader

By March there is likely to be a clearer shift in the attitude of the people.

But it seems that the main action at this time in elsewhere in the world and there is continued uncertainty how this will impact the country.

In the following months to Sept, there is a re-occurrence of the themes discussed in  December 2013.  Any issues will be more entrenched on this occasion. The key time for any notable events would be Aug/Sept.

 We should be aware that there is some potential for earthquakes again around Oct time. The situation does not look too serious though, at this point, although any indications should be noted as the themes will repeat in 2015/6. There are some more leadership difficulties in play at this time too.

Indeed the year might end with a leadership change ( but not a particularly dramatic one- just part of the continued adjustments that the country has experienced for some while now)

 2015

Finally we start to see some events in the frame over the next 2 years, that will change the Japanese economy more radically. The people are ready and the impact of this will fall gradually into place.

In the early part of the year, however, we see some of the issues from 2008-2012 being reactivated – a consequence, it seems, of events elsewhere again. Some of this continues throughout the first half of the year

 In March things are closer to home, with a repeat of the Oct 2014 rockiness- again this could be geological or merely economic. This appears to be the most serious time in Japan over the 4 year period with the country, Yen and Nikkei all showing negative indicators.

The theme continues for some months and is particularly acute around June time. Things are really beginning to get shook up- literally and metaphorically.  We should expect to see the beginnings of technological shifts among other things as japan changes its approach to the economic difficulties of the past decades by embracing innovation

 After a brief couple of months respite the process starts again in September, but is now more about changing the leadership.

The year end with the completion of many of the issues from the last 2 years and the increasingly impetus for radical change.

2016

January 2016 starts with a different emphasis. Now the impact of the global configuration that has been dragging on elsewhere comes to Japan in a more concrete way.

 It becomes noticeable in February, with what again could easily be earthquake related activity or some other sort of threat. It could be economically, although such a dramatic and sudden influence is unlikely to be of internal economic origin; it is more in the nature of external shock. However there is a possibility of technological advances too- but these will be both positive for the economic developments but negative for existing technology and industry too. Certainly there is significant instability at this time. However there are some stabilising influences too around March, so this will mute the effects somewhat.

The picture continues throughout the first half of the year. This is a very important time for the country. There is a real sense of Japan pulling together in action: leadership and people, to overcome any challenges and to grasp the new directions.

 By June the situation becomes calmer and the next few months are without significant direction, probably until around Sept/Oct and even then we don’t return to the disruption of the earlier months until November and December.  There are some real opportunities for positive change here , even though such change will be disruptive. And, because the instability is magnified, this time there is accompanying delusion or disappointment or possibly sadness associated with the events.