On to the Americas now, starting with the country that still hangs on by its finger nails to the title of world economic powerhouse.

USA
The great thing about forecasting the US is that it is easy to check what happens, whereas other countries struggle to make the UK mainstream media unless there is a revolution or an attack from Andromeda, the US is reported on relentlessly.

I predicted that 2010 for the US and its currency would continue the themes of 2009 at first, until May. I expected something to happen and speculated whether it was internal unrest ( I didn’t think so – although the rise of the tea party pretty much matches the themes) or an external event that united the country. As we know the event was actually in late April and involved oil exploration. The well was capped in July and declared dead in September. And it united the nation against BP in England, even though my analysis at the time showed the focus was Houston.

I think, given that I was predicting 2 years out, in general terms, as part of a much bigger project, I can give myself good marks for this one. Obviously if I had taken the time to investigate the flagging of this time period in the US more fully I could have pinned the nature of the event down.

The one point I missed was that the dollar effects weren’t tied to the BP spill, but rather to the longer economic trends. In fact, although the dollar reached a temporary high in May against the Euro, due to the Greek situation, in Yen terms it had only recovered marginally and has been declining all the way since. The Swiss Franc chart really sums up the situation, as does the gold one. The discussion of last summer was whether to carry out more quantative easing, however as the Guardian put it in Novmber 2010, ‘the results of the [mid term] elections make it very difficult for the US to pursue the first best policy to keep its economy recovering: further fiscal expansion, for a time’. I might disagree with this prescription but not the hold on it.

I had predicted that by November 2010 the pressure would lead , if not to government change, at least to policy change. I was however a little naïve in my interpretation of what the impact might be. Taxes on rich people/? In America? I must have been smoking something when I suggested that. Or perhaps I was unusually trying to be optimistic and save the world. To be fair Obama, did want to restore the capital gains rate to 20%, as it was in the 1990s, and allow dividends to be taxed like income, (potentially boosting rates for wealthy taxpayers to nearly 40%), but ended up extending the tax cuts made by his predecessors and adding a few more ( although fortunately not on the scale some would have liked). Anyway the debt continued to rise and the dollar to fall: just a coincidence of course.

I predicted that the liquidity expansion would continue into Spring 2011, and so we have it. While there is no new round of QE interest rates remain non existent. Late April 2011 the US committee that oversees interest rates announced that it was carrying on with the policy of keeping rates low but would end its huge programme of buying back government bonds. It has also been mired in debates over its debt ceiling.

I made the mistake of thinking that as the US chart looked better in 2011, this meant that the situation was improving – whereas, of course, the significant manifestation in 2010 was the BP spill which indeed is over. The longer term issues continue.

I am not sure why I didn’t focus more on the Fall of 2011; perhaps because it was only later having looked at many charts that it became clear it was signficant. Saturn reaches the US natal Saturn again this summer. Pluto again opposes the country’s Jupiter in October as Uranus sits at the base of the US chart. It suggests more debt issues. In the Dollar chart Saturn opposes the stellium in Aries from August and in December it conjoins the Neptune/Jupiter inflation conjunction in the chart. A 30 year event and dating back to the beginning of the mega credit/debt cycle that started in 1982. At the same time the progressed Moon crosses the ascendant – or what I call the Renminbi point. Looks like we are in for some fun.


Dow
My main comment about the Dow in 2010 was that the aspects formed to it by the cardinal cross were for the most part positive. The chart did react to the cross – with short term lows in July and September but this was nothing significant. There was, as expected, another tricky spot around November, but not as much as I anticipated.

Then I got it wrong. I did not expect continued rise into the first half of 2011. Since May 2010 ( indeed since November 2010) the Dow has increased from 11,000 to 12,500. It seems that the impact of Uranus/Jupiter on the chart’s Mars was greater than the Saturn conjoining the Ascendant. Perhaps Saturn was limited in its effect due to its retrograde motion and perhaps the trine to Pluto offsets the Venus conjunction, I really don’t have all the answers to this one. From March it is easier to see as Saturn has been stationed out of the picture.

On the other hand, the focus on the markets in 2010 was on something else entirely; how they operate and especially the May 6 flash crash, and the months of investigation and testing that followed. Now this matches the Saturn on the Ascendant perfectly. The market image was under scrutiny. It just seems that this wasn’t enough to put off investors. Actually, on balance, this sums up the aspects of the cardinal cross very well; another lesson by astrology for the astrologer.

Another manifestation of Saturn has been volumes. As high-frequency traders moved away from the stock market there has been lower volatility and volume. The combined average daily trading volume in the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market in the first four months of 2011 fell 15% from 2010, to an average of 6.3 billion shares a day. Trading activities has been declining throughout 2011.

Back to prices; Jupiter has recently been trine the Dow Jupiter and Uranus will leave Mars at last. This does look like a temporary top. Saturn reaches the Ascendant again in September, I suppose we will have some pull back then. I’ll stand by my significant speculation prediction for the year end though.

Nasdaq
The Nasdaq didn’t really diverge that much from the Dow trends in 2010. I didn’t seem to have made any fixed predictions for the direction of this index in 2010, merely highlighting the offsetting factors. My timing was pretty much the same too. And I did comment that by December we could expect ‘regulatory influences to slow things down’ a pretty good sum up of the curbs introduced by 10 December.

I did however expect more action in the Nasdaq in 2011. Suggesting a significant rise in value from the early part of the year and continuing probably till October. I thought that the trend would be accentuated in April and May as well and then held back. So I was much, much, more accurate for this index and don’t feel any need to update my predictions for the future.

What is interesting though is the recent Linkedin IPO. Not a Nasdaq IPO yet typical of the type of company that the Nasdaq is known for. This IPO I think symbolises what has been happening in both markets – it is the type of stock that matters and the repeat of bubble conditions that I anticipated, the fact that it affects the Dow too is not so surprising given the mix of components.

I am therefore happy about my predictions for a potential return to some of the 2000 bubble conditions even if I could have distinguished my indices better.

Canada
I predicted positive themes for Canada around March 2010, continuing into the summer. Although I expected the country to be caught up in the impact of events elsewhere. Throughout the year I saw positive signs for technological growth . However I expected recessionary matters particularly re house prices to resurface from September onwards leading to extreme cautiousness by the year end.

The reality was that Canada started the year hosting the winter Olympics which gave it a positive shot in the arm for a while. The economy grew at a 6.1 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.

The G20 met in the country in June at which point it was reported that Canada was the envy of the developed countries. The housing market was hot and three-quarters of the 400,000 jobs lost during the recession had been recovered. It had had to raise interest rates a little.

The result was a slightly less stella second half, though still not much to complain about. The housing market began to cool especially in volume terms. Year on year sales were down 15% at December. There were price declines in September to November as some of the bubble gas was sucked out. Severe weather also hit in December.

In 2011 I saw restrictions with partners but overall strength from the country, and new government or policies around March. On the other hand there seemed to be excess liquidity problems but overall developments were positive. A key turning point was expected in April.

In fact the assets bubbles continued in the first part of the year. Canada was suffering as I expected from excess liquidity with inflationary issues prevalent, though the strength of the currency was complicating the overall picture. An election was held on 2nd May ( a little later than I forecast) and whilst the same government remained in power its strength increased making its policies easier to implement.

I’m happy with my Canadian forecasts for the past and future and am interested in that niggling Neptune influence which hangs around still.

Mexico
Mexico was another country that I expected to start 2010 in a positive way. The peso was expected to be volatile and I predicted some intervention around April. The government was not expected to be doing so well at this time however.

The summer was expected to be harder. The country was expected to suffer from effects on established industries and wealth. The peso emphasis was on other countries. Overall a bit of mixed bag of change but with both winners and losers was anticipated.

Relations with partners were expected to decline late year.

In 2011 I expected a big change in governance style around February or March; even a new regime. But April suggested government strength, and the focus continued to be relationships in to May.

This summary of the year 2010 confirms the forecast. GDP posted positive growth of 5% in 2010, with exports leading the way, while domestic consumption and investment lagged. The administration continues to face many economic challenges, including improving the public education system, upgrading infrastructure, modernizing labour laws, and fostering private investment in the energy sector. The mixed bag effect is confirmed by the finance ministers comment that higher oil prices don’t benefit Mexico to the extent of other exporters as they dampen US industrial demand. Mexico is seeking to sell more goods to Latin America and Asia to reduce its dependence on the U.S.. There was a significantly positive outlook.

Relations with the US did deteriorate but later than forecast, in early 2011 when the Mexican president condemned the US support for the drugs war as woefully inadequate. Although the direct cause were the wikileaks which did start at the end of 2010 and did impact of Mexico’s broader reputation internationally.

The Peso as expected reflected other countries’ stories. Against the dollar it strengthened, the year 2010 ended with an appreciation of the peso versus the dollar by 6.1%, but against the Swiss franc it fell, against the Euro there was fluctuation. The Mexican government in September 2010 enacted a new law which basically restricts the use of US Dollars for almost all purchases inside of Mexico.

So far in 2011, excluding the drug issues mentioned above, the government has been getting in gear for 2012 elections and is promoting economic success rather than focus on the drugs war. There was reshuffle by the President early in the year with this in mind. Nevertheless my original view that there seems to be a fluid picture – no clarity on the future – is borne out by this focus on re-election or change.

All in all a reasonable forecast.

Brazil
So far Brazil has the dubious honour of being the country I have forecasted least well. Let’s see what happened in 2010-11, bearing in mind that my predictions so far don’t exactly form a solid basis for the next round.

The results are interesting.

I predicted in the country chart, a year that started with disputes and disinformation. While I can’t correlate the timeline here, there are critics of Brazil who claim that there is misleading information about statistics, but then that could apply anywhere.

I expected the government to be a little reckless around April and it appears that the government ramped up spending last year ahead of October presidential elections a move that was criticised as financially imprudent by some and is now resulting in budget cuts. My best Brazil economic forecast event so far.

I thought that there could be demos over the summer to September, although of course I had not noted that there was an election in the offing. I did not predict a change of government at this time and there wasn’t. There were minor protests about dams but these are not of the nature I meant. A c- for that bit.

In September, I said Jupiter was to conjoin the Brazil Pluto emphasising debt issues. This is when the election occurred. In fact it just seems to have consolidated the Brazil position further ( although debt did rise due to the extra measures mentioned above)

November I saw as having some stabilising issues but also a repeat of themes dating back to early 2009 at least. I expected some restrictions in liquidity or withdrawals in December 2010. Things did quieten down a little in the last three months and in December, The central bank made banks hold onto more of their deposits instead of lending that money out in a bid to cool inflationary pressures. Much better predicting.

In 2010 stats reveal that Brazil’s GDP was boosted by a 10.1% growth of manufacturing and 6.5% agriculture and livestock, domestic consumption (60%) was crucial for GDP expansion together with overall investment that increased 21.8%. Overall the economy actually grew at its fastest for 24 years in 2010, although that might be partly due to the pre- election measures, it obviously reflects genuine growth too. And though I might have got many details right I missed this continued trend in the country.

Early 2011 I thought looked positive but with evidence that some delusions might be overthrown. The new president came into office on 1 January 2011. In March 2011 the Central Bank hiked the basic rate to 11.75% to combat overheating of the economy and the government ratified its decision to cut budget expenditure by 30 billion US dollars. Other than the budget cuts it’s not really possible to say yet what is happening with the new President in charge.

May2011 was to be a key turning point though the effects of this are for later. Although it was announced in May 2011 that there will be measures not to ban imports but to boost national industry in such a way that it can consequently help to reduce imports”.

So overall I did a better job but still not to the standard of other countries.

Brazilian Real
The 2010 themes for the Real were positive according to my expectations. Uranus on the Ascendant in February, liquidity and the potential for a turning point in its value in May.

In fact Brazilian central bankers have raised the country’s benchmark rate 325 basis points, or 3.25 percentage points, to 12 percent since April 2010 to calm inflation. Bingo!

A new long term trend was expected to begin in the summer supported by some very strong aspects. More increased value was expected. And more trade in it in August September October. Most of the aspects were positive again.

There has continued to be speculation in favour of the Real which has appreciated versus the dollar again ( though by less %age wise than in 2009) but not versus the Swiss Franc however. The issue does not seem to be the rise of the Real , rather it is the fall of the dollar. Nevertheless I feel I did ok here.

In 2011, the forecasted Real appeared to show strength around February, ( this does in fact show as a spike in the Swiss franc chart!!!!!!) but with less speculation. The key turning point in May showed up in the Real chart too. The finance minister has recently commented that currency inflows are returning to more normal levels.

All in all the Real forecasts seem ok, even if the Brazil ones still need some work.

Venezuela
With Saturn stationed on the Ascendant, overall the themes were for parallel instability and restriction. A strange combination but one that seems to have played out as expected.

The prediction for early 2010 was for some frenetic activity but not especially bad outcomes. May suggested radical action. The summer’s aspects emphasised disinformation and lack of economic direction.

In reality, in the first half of 2010 Venezuela faced the prospect of lengthy nationwide blackouts when its main hydroelectric power plant - which provides more than 35% of the country's electricity - nearly shut down.

Venezuela's economy was the fourth largest in Latin America in 2010 but it contracted 1.4 percent in a second year of recession. GDP grew a tepid 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier. Slow growth is exacerbating Venezuela's decades-old problem of double-digit inflation, and real buying power has shrunk rapidly. Twelve-month inflation through February was 28.7 percent, one of the highest rates in the world.

The benefits to Venezuela of being a commodity nation were noted during the period of the cardinal cross. And so it proved despite everything else. Venezuela has avoided hyper-inflation thanks to its oil income, which allows it to import a large amount of consumer goods.

My forecast for September 2010 suggested leadership problems, perhaps caused by physical events and these leadership difficulties would continue through December. In fact Government-mandated wage hikes of up to 30 percent are common, but labour unrest is on the rise among both public and private workers .
In December 2010, the National Assembly passed a package of five organic laws designed to complete the transformation of the Venezuelan economy in line with CHAVEZ's vision of 21st century socialism. These laws likely will be implemented in 2011

In 2011 the restrictions were expected to continue. With some tough months due to a Saturn influence. But not to be wholly difficult. Surprisingly the aspects for the next few months were relatively good right through to June.

In reality Venezuela began 2011 ‘wrestling with macroeconomic imbalances resulting from the government's unorthodox economic policies, a housing crisis, and a continuing electricity crisis’ but the currency action mitigated this for a while. Venezuela's economy expanded 4.5 percent for the first quarter, pretty much on planetary schedule.

Bolivar
At the time of predicting, I noted there were a few aspects to the Bolivar chart in early 2010 but not of too great significance . And it mirrored the country with a key point in May.

In May, 2010, Chavez closed the unofficial foreign exchange market - the "parallel" market - in an effort to stem inflation and slow the currency's depreciation. In June 2010, the government created the "a new system to replace the "parallel" market.

The cardinal cross barely touched it. The chart showed Saturn transiting the Moon in September suggesting stability and/or restriction. Some volatility of a positive kind was evident in November and the December chart showed significant restriction in December.

In December 2010, CHAVEZ eliminated the dual exchange rate system and unified the exchange rate at 4.3 bolivars per dollar.

The focus was expected to be on the Bolivar in early 2011 as it diverged from the country chart with February likely to lead to a re-evaluation internationally. The chart was to be again hit by Saturn from April.

In January 2011, Chavez announced the second devaluation of the bolivar within twelve months.

For a country which I have never visited, which is to say the least unique in economic and leadership terms and often poorly reported on I think I deserve a gold star for my attempts here.

Argentina
After some tricky moments in their summer I expected that February 2010 would see everything ok with the world in Argentina. A very brief time in May was expected to be followed by a calm June July and August. The only tricky element was October. And in fact things were just expected to continue to be pleasant right up to some budget reviews in December.

In 2011 the predicted positive themes were to continue all the way through to June.

Argentina started the year 2010 with a debt renegotiation. Although touch and go for a while the negotiation was successful and economically the country hasn’t really looked back. Although the ex-president and husband of the current one died suddenly in October.

Argentina's economy expanded by 9.2 percent last year, driven by strong consumer spending, high global prices for its grains exports and growing demand for manufactured goods in neighbouring Brazil.

As usual I am proud of my astrological identification of Argentina as a good bet, and even more so when the FT on 22 May published an article entitled ‘Argentina is a risk worth taking’.

However, in deference to those who have been negative on Argentina while I have been positive, it is noted that high inflation has been a weakness of the Argentine economy for decades. In December 2010, inflation was believed to be running at more than 25% annually, the highest level since the 2002 devaluation and this will eventually create problems, it just hasn’t done so yet.[

Argentinian Peso
Mirroring the tricky January 2010 country chart the Peso chart showed a more favourable position in February. There were some negatives expected through July though. I expected to see something picking up the dollar after the cardinal cross and a pretty good end to the year overall.

In nominal terms, the peso weakened 3.4 percent over the 12 months vs. the dollar to end of 2010 but remains at a similar level vs. the dollar than in 2009, it has not depreciated at the same rate as internal inflation has risen. It is interesting to see that it still tracks the dollar quite closely, in a way that Brazil and Mexico do not. Still, I would have bet on more overall strength based on the forecast. Depends I suppose whether one looks for stability or appreciation as good in a currency. ….

Themes were expected to come to a head in March 2011, with positive influences through July. We’ll see how this plays out.