I want to start this forecast with the words I wrote for
September to December 2016 back in early 2013.
“While the background themes are substantial and negative,
there are short term ups and downs over the period and again the focus on the
effects of the American dream. There may even be a delusionary faith that it
can be easily resolved.
In November, which should… be election time, shows a little
bit more stability. There is sign of the public choosing a change – but whether
that is just a change in the individual which must happen anyway or a change in
the party is less clear.
2016 ends with continued debate, the people feeling that
they have been deceived and restrictions on action ( possibly preventing
protests) or sit ins”
2017
So here we are, as I write this, one week after the
presidential election and in, potentially, a very different world, but one that
does not look unlike the one I forecast. I think everyone wants to know where
we go from here.
But before we do that, it is worth noting that some of the
newsworthy issues from the pre-election period are going to crop up again and
again in the next 4 years
The most noticeable shift, that we immediately see is that
the image ( if not the reality) of the country is of one that is more divided.
And that shift just happens to coincide almost exactly with
the inauguration of the new president. And, although there is an intangibility
( deception/illusion/disillusion ) around the new leader, it also signals quite
clearly the start of a 30 year new cycle for the effectiveness of the country
as a whole. There is a definite feeling of change in the air and the mood is
relatively positive. Everyone is watching inside and outside the country.
However, some of that mood is quickly reversed in February
and March, where there a reminder of the financial problems over the last
decade and it is all too easy to resort to attacks of rhetoric ( and even stamp
ones feet and walk out) rather than to attempt to resolve issues. There is
continued confusion around the leadership and a feeling that policy will not be
effective unless this gets better.
There is also the risk that the ongoing problems undermine
the countries strengths both military and economic.
However, despite, or perhaps because of the confusion, there
is nothing really concrete achieved at this stage.
Even early April looks like a period of mixed direction. The
illusion/disillusion/ and/or “false news” ( depending on perspective) remains
and the concern regarding potential policy direction is reactivated. But later
in the month there is a clearer sense of direction, but also a risk of open
conflict.
There is also risk of communications difficulties, possibly
technological ones- perhaps a return to the question of hacking. There are
shocks and some surprising announcements.
The problem of identifying the truth when there is an excess
of idealism and hot air is something that characterises much of the year.
Regardless of this, however, there is still some optimism in
May, but it is tempered by reality as we revisit some of the challenges of
October /November 2016.
And there are some explosive tendencies that may erupt.
There may be disputes over financial matters and shocks relating to budgets and
resources, public sector services and/or women.
These issues mean there is still potential for protest and
upheaval in June. In fact this month a number of issues tend to pull
together to make life challenging for
the country. Part of the issue is that the people are quite fired up now and
inclined to respond more actively than usual.
However there is enough support for the leadership and
enough bluster on tap to carry through this period.
July and August is not markedly different with the
difference of opinion over the leadership still festering. There is still a
cloud over the real person- to some that is a sparkly rose coloured mist, to
others it is grey and dank fog. As a result, there may still be some unrest to
be dealt with; even normally passive/co-operative people and partners may be
prone to aggression at this time. This
may manifest at both a country and international level.
It looks as if the leadership may be more settled into the
traditional mould by September, even if that mist/fog still makes policy
development slow.
But that does not mean that the surrounding conditions are
more settled. Indeed there is a very risky phase in September. However,
we need to consider the financial charts
to determine whether the problems are debt and budgets and/or recessionary ,
and to consider other countries before we attribute all problems as internal to
the US. We must not exclude natural disasters from the picture either.
Despite more communication or technology challenges in
December, the month is generally more stable than the rest of the year and may even
end on a relative high for the leadership.
2018
The early months of 2018 seem quieter. Although the jury may
still be out on the leadership there is more acceptance and there appears to be
some financial discipline or restriction that creates stability and some hope
that policies can be accomplished. Of
course financial restriction can also mean budget constraints and there are
still unresolved matters from 2017’s saga, but some of the resentment seems to
have dissipated.
Perhaps it is the calm before the storm, as there is a
global shift in sentiment that becomes evident around May.
Yet in the US, there is a
definite milder tone in May and June. On the other hand, one cannot rule out
inflationary pressures so we must look to the dollar chart for more information
on that.
July, sees little change to this,
although there is once again some evidence of financial discipline. Perhaps the
two themes are related.
August is rather an odd month.
While there are no changes to the themes of the preceding months, there is a
sign of a short sharp challenging event. Is this an internal dispute, or attack,
or is the US the initiator? I’d almost
be inclined to suggest the latter as other conditions are more benign. However,
there is a hint that the people are going to face ongoing restriction in the
coming years so it might be financial.
August is, however, certainly the
month when the policy castles in the air of the last 2-3 years finally get some
foundations laid. Maybe it’s that Mexican wall!!
It seems the people are drawn
into the ongoing financial restrictions by October and November. And once more
there is a sense of underlying disruption, which given the conditions could
also quite possibly be financial in
nature – trouble servicing the debt?
And as in 2017 the leadership appears set to end the year
under the same sense of insubstantiality and ineffectiveness that has
characterised much of the two years. There’s no challenge to that leadership
though really- and that in itself suggests all is not well financially.
2019
Those likely financial ( budgets vs debt) difficulties
remain as 2019 starts . And there is a background theme of aggravation
throughout the year, although this won’t mostly result in out and out conflict.
It is more like a grating edge. In terms of financial matters it means policy
will have to be adapted- what worked before won’ t work as well now.
Nevertheless January starts with grand gestures, and
probably inflationary influences, which increase inequality. The US is very
much in the global view now.
These might result in some restriction to government
activity though this won’t continue in the same form in later months.
Although the people are still rather agitated this won’t
manifest in any concrete or indeed constructive way.
February to May is a mixed period. Conditions are changing
rapidly and seem to be building up to both further financial disruption but
also to some sort of restriction on dissent.
Although the themes continue in June, it is all in all a
much milder month. And could even at times be described as constructive,
although expectations and inflation are still inclined to be rather too great
and efforts to control dissent can be rather heavy handed.
The period is also the beginning of a 2 year phase which
focuses on transforming currency,
banking and may be also pharma cos and mass media.
But nagging problems remain in the background and there is a
return to the concerns of last August and also how to bring matters under
control. This time the effect is longer lasting. There is definitely a feeling
of restriction amongst the population. And in some ways the leadership now also
faces restriction and a difference of opinion with the people. Nevertheless ,
there are still others who are supportive.
There is a chance to make progress now, but it is up against
all of the above issues
September, though, sees a long term shift the financial
situation of the country. A change to the picture that has existed since the
early 90s. Property and probably interest rates could be affected.
There are still opportunities for positive change and growth
but they are still likely to take second place to the continued pressures ( financial or otherwise). And
there are still inflationary pressures.
There appears to be no let-up in the debate between the 2
main parties and beneficiaries/loses from the financial developments and
economic policies. There could very easily be more protests, even open ones at
this time.
By November, it is noteworthy that the conditions which have
created a continued faith/despair in the leadership are ending as the mist
lifts and reality for good and bad manifests. The challenges and restrictions
on the people are only beginning though.
More ( relatively short term) financial shocks follow, yet
once again “an ill wind that blows
no-one any good” and so there are still some beneficiaries. However some
constructive financial changes can happen now, even if they represent a
disruption to the status quo.
And the end of December may even be positive financially as
the outcome of renegotiations are realised.
2020 is characterised by a very unstable image for the
country and by continued financial difficulties. But the focus has moved away
from the leadership itself.
January and February are likely to be hard globally; though
the US may some protection these two months it is not likely to escape difficult
debate and impact on day to day matters or a sense of helplessness. It is certain that the status quo will be disrupted.
March and April are harder still. The country seems to be
running headlong into fundamental conflict at this time. The last time one of
these significators was in place the US were involved in the 1991 gulf
war. There is certainly at the least opposition
to debt and to accumulated wealth.
By the end of the period more short term financial
restrictions are the result.
The restrictions continue into May, as does a sense of
instability although there is some opportunity to change for the better.
It is noteworthy that at least one of the conditions present
now correlates with that of the WTC 1993 bombing. So the people should take
care over these few months. But debt and interest rate/exchange rate matters
are equally valid manifestations, so the indicators may just be pointed to a
major reset of this.
The is no let-up in the conditions in June, though there
does seem to be less outright conflict.
July and August seem to continue the themes of the last few
months and indeed may have more significant consequences for the broader
population.
September and October represent the beginning of a turning
point of sorts. The difficulties are not exactly over but they will be
stabilising but this only comes after an outburst of anger.
November really does see the beginning of a change.
Restructuring and rebuilding faith are the themes but from a difficult place.
December sees the last of this difficult phase as a new
approach to government and finance is in development.
There is finally some consolidation and cooperation between
various perspectives , though the need for another fiscal tightening still
exists.
2021 really looks like the start of a new country, but one
where there is a lot of work to be done.
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