Switzerland 2017-2020

Readers will know that I don’t enjoy writing about Switzerland as not enough happens to make it worthwhile. However that is not a reason to give up- if one doesn’t make the forecasts one will never spot the time that something does happen.

The only point of interest is financial policy ( interest and exchange rates).With Switzerland having far less debt per head than many western nations, having significantly reduced banking secrecy arrangements and with a much more frequent tendency to ask the public via referenda, there is certainly little to say as 2017 begins.

 

2017 

 

Indeed I don’t expect any thing to significantly change in January and February.

There is an ongoing theme of breaking away from the past,  doing things a new way , and this will be particularly noticeable in the early months of 2016. However there is nothing to suggest much difficulty for the leadership or the people.

This remains the case in March and April although there is evidence that changes are gradually becoming more insidious. There may be some challenges regarding partner nations at this time.

May to July will see a continuation of the themes. Once again there is nothing that sticks out as having a major impact on government or people yet. On balance it is quite a positive time.

August and September while still characterised by these breaks with past methods, still have the people and government on the same page.

October becomes a little more interesting. The spotlight is on relations with other nations and this is accompanied by the beginnings of a long term (40 year) shift the ambition drive and military approach in the country.

Despite some restrictions in this period the overall mood is still fine.

December sees some surprising economic decisions, perhaps brought on by the recent shifts in international relations. However there is nothing to suggest that Switzerland is particularly negatively affected.

 

 2018

 

January to March 2018 is again relatively stable.

There are still clearly some economic issues ( perhaps relating to banking flows) to be managed but when the focus is on the country, as now, the general view is still fine.

April and May see issues of communication and exchange come to the fore. At this time there is a bit of a double whammy in terms of long term change and although there is no evidence to suggest that this will give rise to any local dissent it could be an time when the country is drawn into wider debt or other issues.

June to August is then a time when a lot happens. The people are very motivated and conscious of being misled so this might give rise to some unsettled actions. But more likely this will be channelled into work and achievement for the country. There is a real chance to make progress now.

September and October still maintain a relatively calm situation.

 There is still plenty to suggest that the leadership of Switzerland will be able to take a wider lead at this time.

November and December are again months where long term changes continue.

There may be some surprise announcements ( perhaps relating to interest or exchange policy) and perhaps some inflationary concerns which are enough to make some people over-react.

2019 

 

 The first two months of 2019 are a little more difficult. As changes continue, we see a disconnect between two elements of the population and although the government is stable enough not to be vulnerable now it does create some upset with its large policy shifts.

March to May therefore sees the people at odds with government policy. There may be a tendency to protest although there does not see to be enough momentum for this to other than limited in scope.

June to September is a period when little concrete happens , but government is subject to a lot of conflicting debate.

October sees another shift- this time in Switzerland’s place within the global economy.

Some disconnect between government and people still exists, but there is huge momentum carrying forward changes now so any objections are in vain.

December 2019 is for the most part a  positive month. Although there are some obstacles the overall theme is one of positive evolution.

2020

 

January 2020 we have spoken of elsewhere. Here it seems to have the effect of causing roadblock In changes.

However there is definitely enough goodwill to see the country through any external turbulence.

 

February is a time of adjustment but despite the challenges there is definitely some powerful momentum.

March to June are months when a great deal can be accomplished but there is a risk that the people will vote through some radical changes now, not all of which are in the longer term best interests. This has an effect on the government which finds itself vulnerable and unable to lead properly.

July to August sees the people start to take on a more nationalistic mood and also to make their present felt more widely.

I am not seeing anything happen that suggests changes to the leadership though, merely  that there may be some changes to the foundations/constitution agreed now.

September to November is really a follow on phase from the previous one.. But now there is more likelihood on actual protests.

However the bulk of the indicators are positive and there is nothing to suggest a difference of opinion between government and people now.

Finally December 2020 is a time of transition globally but really the impact on Switzerland is relatively minor.  We will assume that the indicators are implying a consolidation of economic energies but it is also possible that this implies massed marches or other activities.