Generally and in
the context of the last 8 years, Spain’s 2016 was not too bad economically.
Although politically it was a mess until Mariano Rajoy was reappointed Prime
Minister on 29 October as head of a minority government. Hopefully now it will
settle down for a couple more years.
2017
It certainly
seems that way in January and February of 2017. Although there are clearly
ongoing issues with unemployment etc and there are reasons to expect some brief
tricky spell the overall prognosis is stable.
March to June
sees the country focusing on external debt issues again but there is no
suggestion that this will not be resolved.
There is some risk of external shocks, but overall things
shouldn’t be any worse than 2016.
July to September is again a long period of relative
stability. There may be some challenges for the leadership ( possibly both
literally and metaphorically).
It is a brief expansionary phase
October and November are similar. Again there is some
difficulty for the leadership, although the people are adapting well to changes
and events. It may be a time when independence movements make a bit of a fuss
again.
However the period is interesting not for the short term
events but for the subtle change that ends an economic phase which started
around 1992- there may be some impact on the EU in the longer term.
December ends the year in much the same way as it has
continued. Once again the country is slightly vulnerable to external events and
there may be noticeable restriction or austerity for the people, but there is
still some optimism.
January and February of 2018 are a little more unsettled.
There may be some protests, probably in relation to debt issues which once
again seem to be key
However it is hard to see this being a big problem as there
is a huge surge of positive sentiment in the country around this time.
March sees continued restriction but it also seems any disruption
dissipate.There is continued background positive sentiment.
It is once again a tricky time for the leadership- there is
again a risk of resignation or challenge.
May and June are somewhat different though. There seems to
be continued positive sentiment and relatively stability but maybe some concern
that there is not enough drive within the country to reach debt targets etc.
There is now increased focus on what can be done to change the structural
economic problems and it is possible that the reality is some of these are
insurmountable.
In July through September there is nothing really new. And
again all the background issues are somewhat mitigated by the upbeat
sentiments.
October and November see the focus on austerity and debt
again but no resolution to longer term problems and dissatisfactions.
By the end of November there is a shift away from the positive mood towards a focus first on
trading and other partners and also a large attempt to address the long term
problems.
As a result December is a month when there are mixed feelings in the people and more
insecurity for the leadership.
Nevertheless there is nothing too unpleasant to face.
2019
January and February 2019 are key months when the various
themes of 2018 culminate at the same time. It is another unsettling time for
the leadership, though a good time for the people
However, despite ongoing conditions, the conditions seem to offset each other and
there are no long term developments.
March and April see the people in a more unsettled mood and
inclined to upset the status quo.
There is a reminder of economic difficulties and this is
likely to lead to a bigger push for change.
Although there may be a lot of focus on Spain in May and
June, the events are brief.
There is some attempt
at cautious expansion.
July to September is better for the leadership and another
phase where it is possible to improve the debt and financial situation despite
ongoing recessionary conditions. There is much more drive and determination
than usual.
While financial and debt matters still remain important in October
and November, this is in a relatively positive way. These 2 months however see
some of the earlier drive dissipated again. It is definitely a transitionary
period when the country is watching events and waiting for the next steps.
December sees issues relating to trade and currency in the
forefront of the people’s mind.
Once again there is
an unsettled feel to things and there may even be a critical moment relating to
debt repayment.
January 2020 doesn’t really bring anything new to the
equation. However it does bring outstanding things to a head. It isn’t a
terrible time though. It is likely other countries are bearing the brunt of
events and Spain only a knock-on effect.
February and March
are much the same but there is more impetus for improvement rather than
merely a feeling of financial wait and see.
It is however a period when the leadership will face some
obstacles, although it is not one where there is likely to be a change of
leader.
April to June are interesting; representing another one of
those phase shifts. This is another 30 year shift and the country is likely to
seek more extravert and attention seeking leaders from now on.
It is quite an exciting time with more emphasis on the need
to change the leadership and to address those long term structural issues.
But not much progress is really made between July and
November although there does seem to be a huge step forward in relation to debt
structures and repayment.
But the real feeling is one of pent up excitement in
anticipation and expectation of changes to come.
December, however is much more dramatic, when everything
changes.
A new coordinated economic approach is likely to be
accompanied by a new government and new
leader, setting the country up for a complete change in the coming decade.
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