2017
While January and February 2017 are mixed rather than
severely difficult, there are still problems. This appears to relate
particularly to the hard currency, where something of an aggressive
transformation seems to be going on. Some restriction is possible.
The fact is that there are background forces which continue
all through the year which are seeking to put pressure on the currency. However
the conditions for this pressure to be a success vary throughout the year.
There is quite a lot of trade in the currency generally in
this period and any improvement in Euro values is highly unlikely.
March to June is a better time when sentiment for the Euro
is more positive. That is not to say that it is good though. Much of the mood
of the previous few months remains and there may be short bursts of selling.
However there does appear to be a floor and enough strength to see the currency
through this period.
August and September 2017 aren’t really months when much new
happens. It is one of those times when there are opposing pressures,
significant volatility but no direction.
Issues relating to interest rates and physical currency are
again important.
In October and November there is still instability but the
overall picture is better.
It might be a time when there is a slight rise in the Euro
value.
December is a month of transition and a return to
instability but on a smaller scale.
2018
In January through to April the focus is mainly on two
things; first on physical currency and/or interest rates again and, later, on
volatility and restrictions on the underlying trade in the currency.
May and June are quieter, but there is a noticeable shift in
mood globally from driving things forward to consolidating what is already
there.
From July to October there is a key time for the Euro. There
are difficulties but also a concerted effort to keep the currency zone intact.
September and October is consequently a positive time for
the currency.
November and December are months when transformation is
easier and more positive. Changes in leadership align the currency better with
the investors and people. Volatility is
much reduced though not eliminated. Nevertheless there are debt issues to be renegotiated.
2019
2019 is another important year where developments relate
more to interest rates, hard currency and general growth.
It starts with
January and February looking much like the last 2 months of 2018 but with more
active trading.
It is still an ok period generally, though it make be
difficult for those doing the coordination.
March through to June, however, gets tougher. The background
conditions referred to before have continued but are now more openly
acknowledged. The result is misinformation and confusion regarding the value of
the currency resulting in some actions to reduce selling and an increased
participation in currency trade from the population in general.
Despite the very unstable global currency environment, the
Euro seems somewhat protected at this time.
July and August are curious months, where there are signs of
adjustment; perhaps there are actions to manage the direction of trade not just
in the Euro but in other currencies. It certainly does not seem like any
discernible real trend can be established now as inflationary pressures and
monetary constraints offset each other.
From September to November there is a huge amount of what appears to be
policy activity. Everything is about the rates and the hard currency the
pocket. The picture is highly expansionary, though there don’t seem to be signs
of extreme inflation yet. But the core issues seem to be about the exchange of
money on the street rather than that of the bigger global value picture.
And in December, although we still face those background
issues, there is a sense of optimism about the currency and a medium term
turning point is reached.
2020
Reached in time for 2020 and what will be a very interesting
year globally for currencies and for the value of the Euro in particular.
Despite the challenges of January, there is positive
leadership and more attempts to manage rates etc.
February is even more interesting. There are deep seated
value issues to be addressed and as a result there are likely to be more
restrictions on the currency’s trade. It is a confusing months for traders.
The period March to June is a noteworthy step in the
currency’s history . Global debt issues are prominent and are a threat to the
value, but there are some supporting factors that suggest that there are
grounds for optimism.
There does seem to be a threat to the Euro ideal now though.
There are no changes to the overarching conditions in July
but there is a return to the more restrictive conditions of February. Change is
happening and there is a need for reinvention.
August through to October see another critical point
reached. Now there is much clearer inflationary pressure and the Euro leaders
are forced to make some radical changes to get things back on track.
November sees no let up in the challenges, though there is
less emphasis on the related changes. In all probability trade will be subdued
as investors await the outcomes of previous actions and decisions.
Then in December we move into a new world. A new era for the
European ideal and a new approach to policy.
However the weakness in direction caused by the wait and see
attitude continues.
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