Saudi Arabia 2013-16


 
More art on money and its themes from Saudi - and proof that Arabic countries too can produce stunning modern art as well as traditional
 
Readers will recall that my forecasts for Saudi Arabia from 2008-12 were remarkably brief. This was an indication that not a great deal would happen within the country itself.
 Obviously 2013 has almost passed and not much of note can be said to have occurred this year either. But now we get to see whether the same is true for the years 2014-16. The signs are that things are going to get a bit more exciting, although not immediately and to start with the mood will creep up gradually.
 2013
Let’s step back to the beginning of 2013 first though.
Things still looked relatively mild despite all the middle east background issues, the country’s benefit from its oil and relations with the US  meant that  it remained insulated.
In any case it brokes little opposition at all times and the month saw decisions to drive out illegal foreign workers who violate the Kingdom’s residency and labor regulations. The move also targets illegal coverup businesses.
 The most exciting news from the country in the spring, though, was the rise in a new Sars type virus there.
The period did see some minor unrest as strikes by workers unions occurred in April, particularly in relation to rules re the international workers
In May there were disputes over passports for large numbers of migrant workers  By the end of the month there were queues of them trying to leave. There were also more worries about the SARs like virus.
 The concerns were enough for the country to issues warnings in June around visits to holy sites. More significantly Saudi also offered it support to the new Egyptian regime.
In august it was announced that Saudi had raised its alert levels in relation to the Syrian situation although this situation dissipated a little following the Us/Russia agreements. Indeed the beginnings of a short term shift occurred  at this time.
By October  the country was sharing concerns with Israel due not just to the US change of heart over Syrian  but also to its shift in its relationship with Iran. Like Israel Saudi fears losing its position of power if the international community develops a broader base of ties in the region. 
The other issue prominent at this time was that of women’s right to drive.
The end of 2013, however sees a much more benign environment, as the hassles of the year go on the backburner for a short time.
2014
 
But 2014 will see the start of impetus for more changes. In the first few months there could be more issues re worker rights but more importantly is the start of a completely new situation regarding the position of women , something that is a change not seen in the 100+ years of this incarnation of the country. Of course it will take time to be fully realised- but this marks a key shift.
April and May are mixed months, no doubt with the threats of the broader regions becoming more important again, not to mention refocus on the US relations.
June and July might in fact see some internal power struggles- not a usual situation for the country. Of course the king is old so perhaps it is less about power issues and more that he will be unwell at this time.
In August issues turn more to the challenges of the broader international environment again.
But in September they revert to consideration of internal leadership matters.
October and November look to be very stable months, a return to the core strengths of pre-2013
December looks to be all about the women. There is no evidence of any unrest, merely a change in support levels– which is welcomes by some, less so by others. 
 2015
2015 starts with another big, big change in the country’s position, there is a more or less permanent weakening of the more authoritarian elements. With the issue of leadership again highlighted, one wonders whether there is a new leader at this time.
March is another breather month , where there are little new challenging conditions.
But April through to June is quite different. A return to matters pertaining to women’s position sets the theme, but it is merely a taster of some major changes to the image of the country. The good news is that there is broad support for the leadership from the population at this time.
More challenges are evident in July and August. There is a need to adjust the pace of change and there are some temporary dis-satisfactions to contend with.
There is likely to be a high prominence given to the women issue again
September sees a much less stable environment, there is a risk of the leadership throwing the baby out with the bathwater in its haste to address security and image issues. The people start to be more split on the direction things are moving.
The last quarter of the year, however, is the one that brings everything together and sets the tone for 2016. The position is not wholly bad – indeed there are some real opportunities now. But expect all of the following to be important: energy and oil prices ( given the forecasts for the US that year this is not surprising anyway), women’s position, internal leadership and by the end of the year we can expect some matters pertaining to re- securing international ties  and keeping control internally
2016
 
The themes of 2016 are continuations of 2015.
 The phase is one of adjustment as new power ( both in terms of physical energy and leadership) bases must be established. There are wealth effects to this too, which will come to bear later. A lot of balancing between hard-line approaches and openness is necessary during this time. Another theme inevitably is that of faith issues which may be  weakening the path forward.
Expect yet another step into new territory from May, when the country is likely to become more communications focussed and more inclined towards trade and exchange. However this is not without some attempts at controlling the ability of the people to choose.
As  a result there may be some surprising challenges to the monarchy position. A lot of adjustment is needed to ensure the continuation of the power base.
July sees no real change in these themes, with more unsettled leadership conditions
August and September see a reprieve though and the ability to make all round progress. The matter of belief systems although becomes a themes which lasts throughout the second half of the year.
October is similarly a month conducive to harnessing power more constructively – there is consolidation of the new leadership as well as the benefits of financial power.
But November is more tricky again. There are two clearly contrasting elements – one which is holding back the desires of the population and one which supports them. It is hard for the leadership to reconcile these two but there is a definite opportunity to make dramatic progress  in reconciling them now.
 
2016 ends with the focus being on the people rather than the leaders. There is a huge impetus for change, although there are some major restrictions that effect anything that is too radical at least at this stage. What is clear is that under the surface the adjustments are significant

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