More art on money and its themes from Saudi - and proof that Arabic countries too can produce stunning modern art as well as traditional
Readers will recall that my forecasts for Saudi Arabia from
2008-12 were remarkably brief. This was an indication that not a great deal
would happen within the country itself.
Let’s step back to the beginning of 2013 first though.
Things still looked relatively mild despite all the middle
east background issues, the country’s benefit from its oil and relations with
the US meant that it remained insulated.
In any case it brokes little opposition at all times and the
month saw decisions to drive out illegal foreign workers who
violate the Kingdom’s residency and labor regulations. The move also targets
illegal coverup businesses.
The period did see some minor unrest as strikes by workers
unions occurred in April, particularly in relation to rules re the
international workers
In May there were disputes over passports for large numbers
of migrant workers By the end of the
month there were queues of them trying to leave. There were also more worries
about the SARs like virus.
In august it was announced that Saudi had raised its alert
levels in relation to the Syrian situation although this situation dissipated a
little following the Us/Russia agreements. Indeed the beginnings of a short
term shift occurred at this time.
By October the
country was sharing concerns with Israel due not just to the US change of heart
over Syrian but also to its shift in its
relationship with Iran. Like Israel Saudi fears losing its position of power if
the international community develops a broader base of ties in the region.
The other issue prominent at this time was that of women’s
right to drive.
The end of 2013, however sees a much more benign
environment, as the hassles of the year go on the backburner for a short time.
2014
But 2014 will see the start of impetus for more changes. In
the first few months there could be more issues re worker rights but more
importantly is the start of a completely new situation regarding the position
of women , something that is a change not seen in the 100+ years of this
incarnation of the country. Of course it will take time to be fully realised-
but this marks a key shift.
April and May are mixed months, no doubt with the threats of
the broader regions becoming more important again, not to mention refocus on
the US relations.
June and July might in fact see some internal power
struggles- not a usual situation for the country. Of course the king is old so
perhaps it is less about power issues and more that he will be unwell at this time.
In August issues turn more to the challenges of the broader
international environment again.
But in September they revert to consideration of internal
leadership matters.
October and November look to be very stable months, a return
to the core strengths of pre-2013
December looks to be all about the women. There is no
evidence of any unrest, merely a change in support levels– which is welcomes by
some, less so by others.
2015 starts with another big, big change in the country’s
position, there is a more or less permanent weakening of the more authoritarian
elements. With the issue of leadership again highlighted, one wonders whether
there is a new leader at this time.
March is another breather month , where there are little new
challenging conditions.
But April through to June is quite different. A return to
matters pertaining to women’s position sets the theme, but it is merely a
taster of some major changes to the image of the country. The good news is that
there is broad support for the leadership from the population at this time.
More challenges are evident in July and August. There is a
need to adjust the pace of change and there are some temporary
dis-satisfactions to contend with.
There is likely to be a high prominence given to the women
issue again
September sees a much less stable environment, there is a
risk of the leadership throwing the baby out with the bathwater in its haste to
address security and image issues. The people start to be more split on the
direction things are moving.
The last quarter of the year, however, is the one that
brings everything together and sets the tone for 2016. The position is not
wholly bad – indeed there are some real opportunities now. But expect all of
the following to be important: energy and oil prices ( given the forecasts for
the US that year this is not surprising anyway), women’s position, internal
leadership and by the end of the year we can expect some matters pertaining to
re- securing international ties and
keeping control internally
2016
The themes of 2016 are continuations of 2015.
Expect yet another step into new territory from May, when
the country is likely to become more communications focussed and more inclined
towards trade and exchange. However this is not without some attempts at
controlling the ability of the people to choose.
As a result there may
be some surprising challenges to the monarchy position. A lot of adjustment is
needed to ensure the continuation of the power base.
July sees no real change in these themes, with more
unsettled leadership conditions
August and September see a reprieve though and the ability
to make all round progress. The matter of belief systems although becomes a
themes which lasts throughout the second half of the year.
October is similarly a month conducive to harnessing power
more constructively – there is consolidation of the new leadership as well as
the benefits of financial power.
But November is more tricky again. There are two clearly
contrasting elements – one which is holding back the desires of the population
and one which supports them. It is hard for the leadership to reconcile these
two but there is a definite opportunity to make dramatic progress in reconciling them now.
2016 ends with the focus being on the people
rather than the leaders. There is a huge impetus for change, although there are
some major restrictions that effect anything that is too radical at least at
this stage. What is clear is that under the surface the adjustments are
significant
Comments