Italy has some very long term structural issues to face.
These are difficult but not unsurmountable. It will probably never again have
the chance to transform that it does at the moment. However the question is can
a country born with such weak foundations ever really overcome the obstacles
without power external influence as well.
2013
The full force of the difficulties to be overcome was
evident in the run up to the February elections. The people for the most part
did not support the works on Monti to stabilise the country’s finances and
looked for an easier life.
As a result of the election debacle, Italy’s credit rating
was further downgraded on 8th March. There are some opportunities to
change, particularly in relation to foreign trade and relations at the moment but
there is insufficient freedom to act.
April sees the beginning of a new phase for working with
other countries to improve the rate of change. But the month as a whole probably fails to meet expectations due to on
going inertia which shows no sign of letting up throughout 2013.
The period around May is insignificant, with the issues
around garnering sufficient power to act being uppermost. There may be some
good economic news but this may prove misleading.
The period around July and August is more positive. While still suffering from
inertia, the balance of opportunity and practical but cautious decision making
is likely to be at its best at this time. Of course Italy usually closes down
for most of this period – this suggests that it might just do better without
any government at all!!
September and October are marginally more positive, there
might even be some positive developments financially, although the core issues
remain unchanged.
By December there is again the opportunity to harness the
motivation for change but once again it is restrained by the desire to cling to
the ways of the past.
The main theme of 2014 is conflict ( probably strikes etc
given that we are talking about Italy!) undermining the ability of the country
to move forward.
That said, the beginning of the year is quite reassuring,
despite the continuance of the embedded sense of inertia. There is just the
right amount of change to have a positive financial impact.
April is a month with potential, but probably too many
upsets to achieve anything useful. It is a likely time for the strikes
previously mentioned.
May to July is much better. There is still a dampening
effect which makes big changes unlikely, but there is also a helpful background
climate which means that the government might briefly be able to make some
headway.
The situation gets tougher again by September. Although
there are opportunities, these are offset by
more disruption and the size of the financial obstacles. As a result the
ability to achieve anything concrete is compromised again.
October though is much better, with some of September’s
negative influences in abeyance.
November and December
are more difficult, however. There are difficulties for some parts of the government ( although other
factions might prosper) and as a result there is political and economic inertia
again.
2015
There is an excess of motivation to achieve things in place
by February and even some alignment between the leadership and the people. But
there are real economic restrictions that prevent much headway still.
On balance May is better though.
Throughout July and August, there is again a period where
there is simultaneously a huge drive to grow and push forward tempered by the
desire to cling to the past.
November is more mixed again.
And December sees another major milestone passing- where the
country reaps, in the global arena, the rewards and punishments for its
policies of the last 30 years. Given
Italy’s failure to update it structures over the period, it is likely this will
be a tough period. But December is only a taster of this with far deeper
effects being delayed until 2016
2016
In March to May, there is a return to some of the longer
term issues. There are obstacles to
moving forward and a return to earlier inertia. There are global difficulties
impinging on Italy again and although this provides some motivation it does not
look as if the balance is right at this time.
Inertia relating to short term finances and reputations
seems to dominate in June and July.
As mentioned in late
2015, we see a re-visitation of that 30 year cycle around August and September.
The picture is mixed, although there does appear to be some opportunity to
develop and some positive financial factors at play. The greatest risk seems to
be that the country will take the line of least resistance again financially.
Oct and November are quieter in comparison, with more conflicting
signals about the ability to change.
December , however, comes with a sense of action. Rather
than direct obstacles, the past is a positive restraining factor on a powerful
drive to move forward this month and suggests the people are clamouring for
action.
In the case of Italy it is almost seems as if it
is 2 steps forward and 1 /2 steps back over the period so it is worth
summarising what has changed if anything over the 4 years. There will have been
a very gradual evolution, although blocked on many occasions, changes will have
been made and more will be made in the coming few years. Given
the conditions of its history, it has made headway slowly over the four years
and more importantly is set up for positive further changes.
As Italy's contribution is design rather than art these days, I've showcased some Murano glass in as its artwork
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