Monday, 8 December 2008

India and Pakistan: political forecast to 2012


As I write this on 30 November, it is almost a month since I did the bulk of the work on the Indian charts that I needed in order to post my forecasts to 2012; but I remained uncertain whether I had chosen a “good” chart for the country. However the tragic events of the past few days have convinced me that the chart does have validity: well, at least as much validity as any of the available charts for the nation.

While the subsequent two posts will address the economic conditions in India in the coming years and the likely direction of the Sensex index, this post will deal only with political issues. It will identify the risk periods in both India and Pakistan’s charts, highlighting if and where they occur simultaneously, and might lead to confrontation between the nations, rather than internal political and terrorist problems within the countries.

As mentioned the Indian chart does show some potential for upset at present. The natal chart has progressed Moon square Uranus this month, suggesting upsets for the people. There is also a close quincunx between Mars and Jupiter, potentially meaning that periodic outbreaks will always tend to destabilise this nation. The natal planets are at 20 degrees of their signs, and the current Jupiter Uranus Saturn configuration is activating this with transiting Jupiter conjoining Mars. Now while Jupiter transits Mars every 12 years and makes even more frequent aspects, it is given extra strength by the other two planets.

Although this is a post on political matters, we cannot ignore the impact of the Jupiter/Saturn/Uranus/ configuration and the current global economic conditions, and the fact that it is Mumbai, an economic centre that has suffered and not Delhi. Indeed a relocation of the chart to Mumbai shows Jupiter actually on the IC at this time.

It is interesting to note that the configuration also picks up the Jupiter in the Pakistan chart- but worth also noting that the aspects are not exact this week and were more significant a few weeks ago, when the focus was on the activities around the Afghan border and was talk of imminent financial crisis in the country- it does not seem to be directly connected to this week’s events. A progressed Moon square Mars aspect has also passed already. However Jupiter aspects to Pakistan’s natal and progressed Sun were active during the week but this only indicates focus on the administration and nothing more.

As we move through December Jupiter will cross the IC of the Delhi chart by the middle of the month, possibly leading to political consequences from the current events. On 13th December Pluto will oppose Pakistan’s Mars, – this period looks difficult for both countries.

The last week of the month also has Jupiter sextile the Pakistan progressed Jupiter and opposite the country’s Moon, it is the anniversary of Benazir Bhutto’s death and may lead to some mass rememberance by supporters.

2009
The continued impact of the Uranus Saturn opposition continues throughout the early months of the year and in India Jupiter reaches a square to the Sun/Pluto opposition in early February at the same time as the opposition is exactly aspecting Mars. It would not be surprising if this were to be a particularly difficult time for the government, especially the final week of February when Jupiter squares the progressed Mars.

At a similar time Jupiter transits the Midheaven of the Pakistan chart opposing its progressed Mars which suggests outright challenge to leadership, which could conceivably come from inside or outside the country. March sees Jupiter continuing the theme as it transits the Pakistan stellium opposing Pluto and Saturn.

However in India, I believe the focus shifts to purely economic matters at this time. The only apparent non-economic manifestation of the Uranus conjoining Neptune and the progressed Ascendant might be floods or spiritual themes such as “miracles”.

In Pakistan, though, May sees the beginning of an Uranus square – hard aspects such as this happen every 21 years, and this is the final incoming square in the first cycle since the country’s creation. Expect some big shifts to begin and to continue through the summer.

In India the focus continues to be economic throughout the summer.

The next major events are in the latter part of the year. Saturn transits the Indian progressed Descendent and opposes Neptune in early October, whilst this may indicate the impact of recession on India’s partners and thus on its own economy some sort of government or external restrictions may be in effect. Violence is not particularly indicated though.

However in October /November 2009 the Pakistan progressed Moon squares the Pluto Saturn conjunction and Saturn squares Uranus before going on to aspect transiting Pluto and square the country’s Mars, this is likely to lead to a reactivation of or repercussions of the May Uranus square followed by a military crackdown at this point. Early November looks especially tricky as Mars transits the IC and activates a slow moving conjunction between progressed Mars and Mercury.

It does not, however, suggest any aggression between the two nations, indeed the indications are that what we see here is all about what is happening in the rest of the world and how that plays out in a local context.

2010
With the themes of May through to December continuing into February 2010, we won’t see much new in this context until later February or March.

Pakistan is likely to continue to undergo a difficult time as Saturn square Pluto resonates to the countries Saturn Pluto conjunction. In February/March the square will also activate the country’s progressed MC at 5 degrees Aries, suggesting dark times.

In late February Pluto forms a quincunx with the Indian chart’s progressed Saturn. The progressed Saturn position is a key point in the chart, picked up in the independence/Pakistan chart and the Republic chart. With Pluto making an aspect, albeit a minor one, we can expect attempts to undermine the Indian administration. It is notable too that the progressed Sun at 11 Aries is picking up the natal Saturn and Moon – another critical degree in the country’s chart. Furthermore at the end of February Jupiter opposes the Moon, suggesting the potential for mass action, which would not be significant by itself but will be when coupled with the other themes.

By April Uranus makes a square to the Indian progressed MC, indicating attempts to overthrow the leadership by the end of May when Jupiter conjoins Uranus on the progressed Ascendant.

In Pakistan, at the same time Saturn returns to its square to Mars, and Mars again reaches the country’s IC and related stellium, repeating the theme of military crackdown from the latter part of 2009.

Although the cardinal cross is within orb of these points, it is not exact and the impression is that much of the difficulty will already have occurred prior to July /August in Pakistan. In May the Jupiter Uranus conjunction and Neptune both activate the Pakistan progressed Jupiter, suggesting possible floods or spiritual outpourings, but little impact on the political environment and the remainder of 2010 is characterised by a depressive but not disruptive climate.

There is no indication of much change in India, either, over the rest of the year despite or perhaps because of the fact that the cardinal cross is at its maximum elsewhere. Indeed there seems to be holding pattern throughout late 2010 and early 2011.



2011

Although the first months of 2011 are subdued in India, more happens in Pakistan. Transiting Jupiter squares Mars, which suggests upsets and possible violence again. This is compounded by Pluto in square with the progressed MC and further activated by Jupiter again in the last week of February. This is quite an explosive combination. In March when Uranus reaches a square to Mars, there are likely to be unexpected outbursts.

In April and May Pakistan shows a likelihood of further economic problems which are likely to reflect on the government, and the charts suggest that these problems are the dominant theme through the middle of 2011 in that country.

In India, in May of 2011, there is a tricky patch while Uranus transits the progressed Moon and when a conjunction of the inner planets including Mars transits the Indian Pluto Sun opposition as Neptune squares the country’s Uranus and Jupiter crosses the Descendant. Such a combination suggests possible attack. Difficulties continue through June and July as Saturn stations opposite the progressed Sun and are highlighted when Jupiter transits 6/9 degrees Taurus in July to mid August. The latter transits repeat as Jupiter goes retrograde in September October.

After an uncomfortable but not disruptive six months in Pakistan, in October there are some indications that the country will face more upsets as Uranus squares Mars again and Pluto returns to square the progressed MC reactivating the problems of the early months of the year, and continuing them into 2012.

In India the picture is quite different by this time. In December Saturn crosses the Indian Ascendant, completing a cycle beginning in 1981, but this is likely to relate to the development of major corporations in the country rather than the direct political situation.

2012
Some levels of disruption and restrictions on the ability to govern remain in Pakistan in early 2012. By April there is a very challenging picture with Saturn stationed on the country’s progressed Sun – suggesting that the government is under significant stress, further emphasised by the now close-to-exact Pluto Uranus square transiting the progressed MC. This suggests that the country may be undergoing a complete breakdown in government at this time. It is not all bad though- there are no difficult aspects to the progressed Ascendant, so the situation is unlikely to involve direct external conflict. The only exception to this is in April when Jupiter passes the Ascendant.

In any case, the themes in Pakistan do not seem to be especially reflected in India. Admittedly in February when Jupiter completes its final transit of the Indian Pluto opposition it repeats the themes of July – Oct 2011, which might suggest some knock on effects. But, when Saturn stations on the Indian descendant around July, this is likely to reflect economic rather than political impact: a fact that is emphasised by transiting Pluto trining the country’s Pluto ( remember its source in the East India company) during the year.

By December 2012, Saturn reaches the Indian Sun/Mercury conjunction, and although there are likely to be leadership associations with this, it again suggests that it is concerns with reorganising the corporate sector that will occupy them rather than any other influences.










Sources
India chart: 1 November 1858, Delhi, (midnight GMT)- see notes below

Pakistan: 15 August 1947, Karachi, 0.00 local time. N Campion, Book of World Horoscopes

A note about the charts

I am gradually beginning to establish a principle for country charts. My preference is for an earlier chart over a later one, so if there is a chart for when a country starts to exist with defined boundaries that is the one I will use even if that country is subsequently occupied by another nation.

This means that as a general rule I won’t use independence charts – unless the nation really did not exist in its own right beforehand. The separation by independence of a part of a nation will lead to a new chart for that nation but not for the original nation, which, although redefined, will still for the most part retain continuity of national spirit.

I may use republic declaration charts, rather than the prior monarchy charts if these have more reliable data and represent a sufficiently significant moment in coalescing the national feeling of the nation and its relations with other nations.

In the case of Pakistan I have therefore used the independence chart as, until this date, it was not a separate nation from India. The subsequent declaration of a republic made little difference to this.

However I do not use the same moment for India. I have, in fact, not used any of the charts generally used by other astrologers for this. I have chosen the earliest chart I could identify. India was essentially formed gradually from a number of states through economic means in the 17th & 18th centuries by the East India Company. However in 1858, following uprisings, England removed the powers of the EIC and took control over the nation itself. Whilst not representing a time when India was independent, this moment is a good one for defining when India became one politically rather than economically. The decision was taken in August 1858 but was to be legally effective 1 November of the same year, (thus at midnight UK time), proclamations were made on that day in different cities at presumably different times, so the most useful time is the midnight UK time relocated to Delhi or where applicable to the other state capitals.

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