tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-52814381595980891082024-02-18T19:03:30.397-08:00Fortuna 2020Economic and political risksArtemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.comBlogger225125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-90953665830388961062021-08-31T23:11:00.004-07:002021-08-31T23:11:29.417-07:00The new website is here<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUY5LNI1x6mi9SBSm5BR6TVl7xlXIjU3kVPdCPMzQ-I-U1V3WrfA-o__66J1sOzk8fOJL4fOhTMwUFLiLPHhYdStL8ui7Jm8g7VP3aVPeQQorCR9PjuPzXLML7aBPB1HctarebEX5uBxQ/s55/Optimesia+sign+off+rgb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="48" data-original-width="55" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUY5LNI1x6mi9SBSm5BR6TVl7xlXIjU3kVPdCPMzQ-I-U1V3WrfA-o__66J1sOzk8fOJL4fOhTMwUFLiLPHhYdStL8ui7Jm8g7VP3aVPeQQorCR9PjuPzXLML7aBPB1HctarebEX5uBxQ/w320-h279/Optimesia+sign+off+rgb.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Good day everyone</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">After many years of this project, we are now moving to a new home.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="http://www.optimesia.co.uk" target="_blank">OPTIMESIA</a> - Forecasting political risk and financial opportunity with astrology<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This blog will remain as a archive of the project with only very occasional updates</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p>Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-59342432827978182732021-05-18T11:28:00.003-07:002021-05-18T11:28:59.670-07:00Covid - an astrological exploration<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPuPky5tU7TCaeLdEqYocj-sGGcTtGH4S2MUEqpcbbY3rYypaN_SGPkgODBYdftgzMKoLQ1pECuX-IPmDY4OjDn4v972KdptMriQw66zdAJf0FE5CAzM842C-T6vMnoVR4lvgV_dTpzuE/s960/covid19-illustration.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="960" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPuPky5tU7TCaeLdEqYocj-sGGcTtGH4S2MUEqpcbbY3rYypaN_SGPkgODBYdftgzMKoLQ1pECuX-IPmDY4OjDn4v972KdptMriQw66zdAJf0FE5CAzM842C-T6vMnoVR4lvgV_dTpzuE/w400-h266/covid19-illustration.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So
back in November 2020, I thought I would take a look at the Covid picture. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I
started really optimistically thinking,” oh great the Saturn Jupiter
conjunction is coming up at 0 degree Aquarius, surely that will mean a change
for the better” <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I
had every intention of completing this analysis and posting it before the end
of November. At that time everyone was taking about how great Christmas with the
family would be<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Unfortunately,
the more I looked at the picture, the more depressed I became and I decided to
hold off from putting a damper on everyone’s spirits. There was no point. One
of the lessons of astrology is “What will be, will be”.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Anyway,
we’re six months on now and more philosophical about the gains of vaccinations
and the losses of new variants, so I thought I would revisit my work out of
interest rather than any great desire for a positive answer.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Let
us start with the history. There is uncertainty about the first identified case
but some evidence in Chinese media that one was identified on 17<sup>th</sup>
November 2019. So here is a chart for noon that day.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></div><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzxGhfD7EEqHvOHiRmBKHi6e2PNZUcUDAUjvEaIvBGLyLpuBJZyXFSEhzNZTrr12Pfg-e7a6uMQjHDvMzRuGTNneiWVhiBx3j43Zd5G01Ut_s47g9aKjcs60dBMysSx9-JyFJ6XMxLa94/s563/cov1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="563" height="359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzxGhfD7EEqHvOHiRmBKHi6e2PNZUcUDAUjvEaIvBGLyLpuBJZyXFSEhzNZTrr12Pfg-e7a6uMQjHDvMzRuGTNneiWVhiBx3j43Zd5G01Ut_s47g9aKjcs60dBMysSx9-JyFJ6XMxLa94/w400-h359/cov1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p> </o:p></span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We
are not surprised to see the Pluto Saturn conjunction in this chart, of course
it sums up the response to the pandemic and oppositite the Moon representative
of the people in general.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We
also see that the Moon is trine Neptune suggesting spread and trine Mercury
retrograde signifying both the virus and its hidden nature.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Other
factors in the chart are the wide opposition between Mars and Uarnus. Mars is
sextile Jupiter in Sagittarius . As I mentioned Jupiter is important as it relates
to the lungs as well as the liver. Here it is in its own sign which normally
suggests things are coming up roses, but we mustn’t forget it also magnifies –
in this case it is magnifying the inflamation. And of course Sagittarius is
half man half beast – the perfect place for a virus to jump species.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">If
I had to put a date on when the virus made its escape it would be early
September of 2017. When Mercury and Mars were in a stellium in Virgo and
the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moon was with Jupiter, but that’s
just astrological speculation.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p> </o:p></span>We
need to stick to the known facts in order to look forward.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></div><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBkeiVlXGdhmehzMGEijjAzqu9HBokClBBGE3O9uuJdlSYDKnlK1NZbaHosM0OBjIIb0BxEL0p_mVEtayf1dWRGLqZgHz9C4cNRTF84G9VlzGy_Ku9pKyCUTntt-yAlCSdfxCdhp1toVQ/s546/cov2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="546" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBkeiVlXGdhmehzMGEijjAzqu9HBokClBBGE3O9uuJdlSYDKnlK1NZbaHosM0OBjIIb0BxEL0p_mVEtayf1dWRGLqZgHz9C4cNRTF84G9VlzGy_Ku9pKyCUTntt-yAlCSdfxCdhp1toVQ/w400-h370/cov2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The
first thing we notice is that Saturn by transit has reached the 17Nov Pluto and
the Moon has progressed to oppose it.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now
Mercury and the Sun are in Capricorn with Jupiter and about to start to spread
the news through governments and organisations across the globe. The Moon is
now in the same sign as Neptune<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Mars
is still in Scorpio at this stage. One sign away from its original position.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We
won’t go through the details of the whole of 2020. We know that the virus
spread rapidly in the Western nations in the spring when Jupiter Saturn and
Pluto were together and activated by Mars. We also know that as Saturn went
into Aquarius and Jupiter retrograde actions were taken and the virus was
subdued at least in some places for a few months. Now with the triple
conjunction activated again<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it is back
with a vengeance.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It
is worth noting though that on March 11<sup>th</sup> the WHO ackowledged that
there was a global pandemic. On that date the Sun separating from Neptune was
at 21 Pisces and Jupiter was at 21 Caprircon. The progresed Moon was by then
opposite Pluto and trine the origianal chart’s Sun ( I think we can probably
deduce from this that the Sun is WHO in this story)<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But
obviously when I started this, what I was interested is was the story of how we
got here but the prospects for an end to it.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I
was convinced that what we needed to see was planets changing signs and the end
of that nasty Capricorn conjunction.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The
progressed Moon had already changed sign in August 2019 and that has not helped.
We needed more concrete movement.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We
could at least see a change in December when both Saturn and Jupiter move into
Aquarius and conjoin on 21/22 December. Hopefully that change is good (
relating to treatment or vaccine) and not an evolution of the virus. This was
when my heart sank- what if the change was a new strain?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">And
of course as we now know late December was when the talk of new varinants began
( though it is notable that some of these wee already established in the montsh
prior to December.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But
I also concluded that even if there weer positives to be had in December we
must accept that the virus in some form is likely to be around until Pluto
leaves Capricorn and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Neptune moves into
Aries in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2024.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I
thought that interesting times to look out for are likely to be:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">May
2021 Uranus opposes the 17Nov Mercury.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jan
2022 Progressed Mars changes sign into Scorpio<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Feb/March
2022 When Jupiter reaches 17 Nov Neptune<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Well-
no one can now doubt the May 2021 date!And this validates the chart somewhat.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But,
on reflection though we need to be more dispassionate about this. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The
fact is that diseases don’t always just turn up for a few months and disappear in
the way Sars did in 2002/3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The plague
was around for centuries and indeed still exists. Smallpox was around for
centuries until its eventaul eradication a few decades ago. Aids has now
existed for 40 years or more and alathough it was firstidentified at the last
Pluto/Saturn/Jupiter conjunction most definitely did not disappear when those
planets moved along a sign. And of course we have the common cold which is a
permanent fixture albeit usually a mild one.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We
can’t just assume that Covid will leave when Pluto moves into Aquarius, though
perhaps we can conclude that the effect of its spread will reduce when Neptune
leaves Pisces.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The
fact is we cannot rule out the possibility that Covid is a product of a wider
cycle – e.g. the Pluto Neptune cycle. On that basis it could be around in some
form for <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>decades or even hundreds of
years. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Maybe
we were asking the wong question. Perhaps the right question is to go back and
consider each country again and see its challenges and opportunities without
too much concern for whether it is a virus or leadership or demographics or economics
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that creates those challenges and
opportunities.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But
at least if we want to further consider Covid’s evolution we do have a chart
that seems to work. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-64955753366601991962021-05-16T05:22:00.001-07:002021-05-16T05:22:35.023-07:00A sense of completion: Review July - December 2020<p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMUlKdvwSSJinJXVCWek3w28NMbccWSE3l5B33d4b5fdVUntkDSx61MW0vfbQmTTzWIqdo6KanWKdegimH6Ii6zxN3TRgoIApeRWQAdKIgdzskPROdUMyha6-g2ZOSZFr1eN5p1Q0Ext4/s691/thats-all-folks-7172-1920x1200.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="421" data-original-width="691" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMUlKdvwSSJinJXVCWek3w28NMbccWSE3l5B33d4b5fdVUntkDSx61MW0vfbQmTTzWIqdo6KanWKdegimH6Ii6zxN3TRgoIApeRWQAdKIgdzskPROdUMyha6-g2ZOSZFr1eN5p1Q0Ext4/w640-h390/thats-all-folks-7172-1920x1200.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Review : July to December 2020</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Well, it isn’t the end of this blog of course but at last we
come to the end of the road in my forecasting project. When I started this 2020
project in 2007 I knew that I would end at a critical time, I just didn’t
appreciate then the nature of that time, it has been far more challenging
globally and personally than I expected.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I also did not appreciate what a major commitment I was
taking on. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I don’t regret it but I did learn that one of the factors in
determining good forecasts using astrology is the extent to which the astrologer
is committed and engaged in their work. The early years were a pleasure, I
enjoyed the analysis and the writing and I think that showed. By 2016 when I
was compiling the last 4 years, I just wanted to get it finished – a lot of the
joie de vie had left my writing and I found myself less in the zone as I did
the analysis. Good astrology still slipped through at times (!) but overall I
am not so proud of those last set of forecasts. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nevertheless it was worth it. I
feel that I have demonstrated the potential of astrology to foresee economic
and political events, sometimes with quite extraordinary accuracy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I hope that this will form a solid
underpinning for the work that I plan to do going forward. I have already
compiled my 2021-24 forecasts – though of course they are not part of the
project and won’t appear here- and am all ready to begin setting up my website.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">More soon about that, in the meantime let’s get back to
those last reviews.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The second half of 2020 is a difficult period to do the
usual review for countries and currencies ( though stock markets can be tracked
as usual). The problem being that Covid dominated all news and separating Covid
from other economic and political events is hard when they just weren’t
reported globally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This puts a limit on
the upside to the marks I can reasonably give for my forecasts this time. It is
not that they are incorrect, just that they are difficult to pin down due to
the Covid focus. However I was pleased to see that there really was a
correlation between the timing of the Covid peaks in different countries and
difficulties highlighted in my forecasts – so the system continues to work even
if it is harder to assess.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">UK<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I didn’t do great for Jun-Aug- although I identified
disruptive influenecs I thought things looked good – they were better but
definitely not good. Sept-Dec I focused on Brexit at the year end but given I
wrote this in 2016 my timing was perfect. I did see the focus on the people in
the last 2 months which relates to the Covid situation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sterling<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">FTSE<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I correctly forecast an unstable period from July-Sept with
some falls. Also the variation in Oct-Nov when there was a significant shift in
trend. And in Dec though I correctly noted that the main effect would be in
January.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Euro<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I wasn’t really right about July – the currency was managing
relatively ok as there were problems everywhere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was certainly a tough time Aug-Oct
though anything other than inflationary at ground level ( monetary easing a
different matter). November was indeed similar but more wait and see. And in
December again the absolute picture was correct but in fact the Euro’s relative
position was middling.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">65%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Germany<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Not much to say really – I correctly saw that the situation
would continue for the rest of the year. Including key announcements such as
the vaccine at the year end.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">France<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I correctly saw Jul-Oct as being the same but more
moderated. And also that December would see flaws revealed as cases rose and
the difficult vaccine situation began.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Italy<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Once again I saw the situation moderated but with the same
themes in July to Oct. However I had much greater change happening in November
– government shifts did not really happen until January 2021. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">60%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Spain<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">And again<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I did not
see real changes in July to November but I expected a complete change in December
when there was none. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">60%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ireland<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I noted that Ireland would not feel entirely in charge of
its destiny in the latter half of 2020. And as well as Covid there was the
situation relating to the UK/EU which created just such a situation. And I
nailed the timing in December ( once again I was writing in 2016 so this was a
bit of a coup)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Greece<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I though the summer would see disruptive influences but
general positivity. And of course Covid hit the travel industry but Greece was
relatively protected from actual cases. By November I saw pressure on the
leadership but calmer – I am not sure this is particularly true ( though I am
limited in what information I can find). December I said would be the start of
new financial arrangements and sure enough the country sold bonds for the first
time since the 2009 crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Switzerland</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Once again close enough and for once I predicted something
different for the country – protests in the Sept-Nov period. And indeed there
were some related to Covid restrictions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Even though I said little else that deserves marks for the
normal quiet country -80%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Iceland<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Not much of substance in my forecast – which sort of sums it
all up really. Hard to mark but an absence of events is an event so<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">US<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I said<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">“July and August seem to continue the themes of the last few
months and indeed may have more significant consequences for the broader
population.” Covid spread wider across the nation <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">“September and October represent the beginning of a turning
point of sorts. The difficulties are not exactly over but they will be
stabilising “ The run up to the election and Covid <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">“an outburst of anger” – in fact this is probably more to do
with the outbreak of Covid in the White House.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">“November really does see the beginning of a change.” My election
prediction dated December 2016!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">“December sees the last of this difficult phase as a new
approach to government and finance is in development….. 2021 really looks like
the start of a new country, but one where there is a lot of work to be
done.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Pretty much nailed it -95%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">US$<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Volatility did occur in July- Oct but not as much as I
expected. November and December were better with some rise and there was a
turning point at the year end. However there were no big reorganisations etc. (
aside from the change of government).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">65%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Dow<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">July the index was flattish as predicted. Aug-Oct saw
fluctuations but in the end no direction, however I expected more activity and
some hit to values. A rise in November to an all time high ( or as I forecast
“completely new territory” was followed by a flat December though not as
depressed as I suggested.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Moderate overall but extra points for November <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>85%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nasdaq<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">My forecast for July-Nov<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>was for erratic swings and selling. We got the erratic but not the
selling- there was certainly no rout at all.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">December I correctly thought would be positive<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">65%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Mexico<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Certainly true that the government has to contend with the
ongoing ( Covid) situation in July-Sept but the people did too. Not sure there
was a peak in October/November but it was true that things did not moderate in
December<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">65%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Peso<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I though that August and September would see the currency
protected and it was more or less flat vs the dollar at least and benefitted
from rate lowering ( the deliberate actions I mentioned).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I said October and November could be accompanied by changes
to rates or even physical currency. There were no rate changes but two new
notes were issued $100 and $1000. December was not particularly interesting
however.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Brazil<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I forecast August and September a sense of gradual stability
returning to the people day to day and to some extent that was true ( if you
ignore the pandemic then you get day to day normality albeit at a cost) . But
then I said “October and November see at least some signs of final economic
resolution to some issues. It is not a bad time and relative to many places is
quite calm”. But this really wasn’t the case – though I suppose to some extent
the government was pretending it was!!!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I also thought a lot of the pressure is off the country by
the year end but although things were better it is hardly that positive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">40%<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I always flunk
Brazil<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Real<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Correctly forecast that volatility would continue, albeit
more moderated between August and September. But there was less drama than I
predicted in October and November, And although there was a turning point
in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>December there was no big shift in
value.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">60%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Venezuela<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Difficult to establish real situation but I said October and
November see the situation reaching a peak as in so many countries and this was
true of all S America.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I thought December would be<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>rather different. I said “the new environment is characterised by
restriction for the people and the start of a new economic position but that
means hardship for those holding on to the status quo. There is some
possibility<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that everything has to end
in unpleasant ways in order for the new environment<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to flourish”. In fact Maduro was reelected
despite the ongoing activity of Guaido including direct Covid funding etc. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">50% - lack of clear picture makes it hard to mark this<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Bolivar<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I correctly saw August and September being much like the
start of the year. But said that October and November could be the months when
things finally get resolved and a new equilibrium is reached. This could hardly
be said to be the case but I suppose it was getting there as more and more
people stopped using the currency and switched to Crypto etc.. Still fell 95%
in year but less than 2019.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I also said that December seems to be mainly a relatively
positive month, with the year end seeing a final shift as the currency finds
its balance. And while no big changes happened in December in early January
2021 allowed the use of foreign currency for daily activity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">60%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Argentina<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As expected August and September continued the trajectory
with no real new developments. I said October and November would be intense but
also potentially positive months for the people despite ongoing issues of
inertia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Certainly Covid was at a high
rate but started to level off. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I then said that while the 2020 trends don’t end in December
they are drastically reduced and this leads to some shocks for the people and a
moderately tricky period. The shock stook the place of new taxes to pay for the
pandemic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But I blew it saying the year end itself would be noticeably
uneventful when compared with other nations. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Arg Peso<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I thought August to September<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>would be somewhat more moderated but this
wasn’t especially the case – the currency decline was quite even over the whole
year. I thought October and November would continue this so to some extent that
was right. December was better but a stretch to say positive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">However overall 2020 was definitely NOT the currency’s
year!!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">30%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Japan<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Japan didn’t do too badly covid wise from July to August which
menat it was economically in a better position and the people are more amenable
as forecast. September to November was not generally better though it was
better than most countries<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">December was not as significant as I expected though the
situation did change with Covid increases but more growth.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70% <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Yen<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As expected July to Sept saw little change. But October and
November were not much different while the forecast expected bigger shifts.
December to some extent was a new environment with a turning point.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nikkei<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">July to October were positive but not exceedingly so due to
the pandemic and in line with the forecast. I thought November would be about
fear and although Covid was ticking up there this barely caused a dip and
overall the index rose. I also thought December would be pivotal and it was
mostly flat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">55%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">China<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Correctly saw that things would be more moderated from
july-Oct with no shocks. November did see changes that would take things to a
head – the vaccine campaign and US election. December I summed up well – the
country being never so powerful but with questions over directions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Renminbi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I correctly saw the currency doing better than others in the
period June to November. And that December would be a flat wait and see month.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">90%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Shanghai Comp<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I was correct that July to October would see no let- up in
the themes , with investors sentiment driven. But I had expected November to be
characterised by one final push in terms of capital flows and market trends but
the overall index movements weren’t significant then ( though internally they
may have been).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>December as predicted
saw the position strengthen <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">75%<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">HK$<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I said that July to October sees a mix of actions to balance
things, including rate changes, possible revaluations and re-defining of pegs
etc. In fact the government intervened successively to maintain the peg.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I thought that December could be the moment a new
environment starts operating but this was not so, however it was the time that
the country started discussions about digital currency. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">75%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Hang Seng<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I expected July to September to be more mixed and some
destabilisation and there certainly was volatility as well as focus on new
companies. October and November I expected a boost, and this was so. December was
also positive as I expected as concerns over China regulations were overcome. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Indonesia<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Covid cases rose during July to September and there were
attempt to form an opposition coalition as the government seemed focussed on
economy not Covid<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">. </b>This was in line
with my exepectation that the government was trying to align its position. I
thought October and November would bring thins to a head with protests and sure
enough there were trade union strikes etc. Decemeber I though would see things
in the same vein though there could be changes – and in fact there was a
cabinet reshuffle in response to the challenges.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Rupiah<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">July was the end of the volatility period expected. August
and September were unstable and did not form a trend – I said that it would be
difficult to stablish a stable value which more or less the same. The same for
October and November but this time the currency did show some trend with the
currency strengthening. I though that December would be a relatively quiet
month lack real direction and the currency was flat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">South Korea<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I expected August and September to be a little more
difficult and indeed cases started to rise. My comments re October and November
were about the history of corruption etc and indeed the formation of the
corruption investigation group fulfilled this. I thought that December in
contrast to many places, would have achieved its goals by the year end and with
only a contraction of 1% the country was close to the top of the developed
league.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">90%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">North Korea<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I thought August and September would be like January and
February, but more moderated and the country announced a new missile. In
October and November I thought that the focus of the immense power seems to be
mainly on resource and economic matters with little to suggest conflict of any
kind and this was the case ( Probably due to Covid etc but impossible to say).
I thought that<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">December would be all about radical economic changes with a
lot of adjustment and resource challenges result and although it is difficult
to confirm this the actions of Q1 2021 seem to confirm those challenges.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70% ( cautious due to lack of info)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">India<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I said that in July to September there may be real
challenges for the leadership now as the people are not supportive and this is
a big opportunity for opposition and sure enough the opposition was stronger
and there were protests. October and November were less problematic than I
feared and the leadership was not<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>overturned. I thought that December would end with one final big bang and
although there were more protests the economy was better and the country now
the 5<sup>th</sup> largest.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Rupee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As exepected July to September saw no change in the themes
of the year. There is not enough information to confirm speculative activity,
possibly attacking the currency though there were some falls. I was correct
that October and November would be much the same <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">December, I was correct would be quieter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">75%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sensex<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">July to September was not nearly as volatile a phase as I
expected though it wasn’t suitable for long term large investment. October to
November were expected to see some stabilising factors, which make this period
more constructive and the market did rise. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">December however was not the fog that I expected ( except
for me) but a quieter time – perhaps hiding that fog in inertia?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">50%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Pakistan<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">No monthly analysis for this one, just a general comment
that the period continued to be difficult as expected with school bombings,
burning temples, international questions about human rights ( I questioned the
external relations at this time) and some rumblings of possible opposition to
government.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">65% - could be higher difficult to tell<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Russia<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I expected that June to September would belike January and
February again not a good period. This seemed to be the case with
constitutional reform making the country more of a dictatorship and the alleged
poisoning of the opposition. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I forecast that in October to November, the situation would
be very challenging for and by this time Covid cases were rising steeply. Then
though I thought December would see the situation pared back considerably, but
not eliminated and cases were flattening as the vaccine was introduced. I don’t
think that thee was especially abrupt change at year end ( though once again I
struggle to find out anything but Covid news)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Rouble<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I expected an upside to the currency in July to September but
in fact it continued its trend weaker.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">However I though that October and November would see the
final stage of the position with oen more push and this was true. And December
was indeed calmer with little gains or losses.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">65%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Turkey<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I was sort of in the right ballpark for July to September. The
whole year really has been critical with creeping government changes, The
period was better Covid wise as was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>October and November. But as mentioned the
government was pushing forward its policies despite this being of worry to the
people. Economically there was some recovery.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">And for December I said “While the core issues that have
dominated the year remain, there is a change of mood by the end of December.
The people are feeling out of kilter with the direction of travel” the picture
continued but with Covid cases rising and this having an impact.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">65% mood right but difficult to pin down actual dates.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Lira<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As forecast August and September were more like January and
February with declines in the currency value. I thought that November could be a
period of some noticeable positive surprises with the currency staging a come
back. This was true in November as the economic news turned the trend. By
December I didn’t expect any major increases but some sense of relief that the
worst may be over and the currency had established a more positive trend
against the dollar at least.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Saudi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I predicted August and September to be a major turning point
and Covid peaked at this time and the oil price turned a corner too. I thought
that October and November would be similar months but more determined and this seems
to have reflected the mood. I expected December to herald a new constitution or
agreement which didn’t happen though the whole year involved many peace accords
with other arab states and Israel the one with Saudi did not materialise.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">60%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Israel<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I thought that July to September could be just the usual
level of challenging with difficulty to find accord between the groups including
the Palestinians. There were certainly protests and issues re Covid cases in
Gaza etc. I thought that October and November might see things coming to a head
in this country with disruption between various parties. It is difficult to
assess. There were difficulties with Palestinians but <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>also resentment from Orthodox jews re
restrictions. On the other hand there were the various accords with other
nations. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But I also said “although the issues remain in the
background (<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> and are likely to be
reactivated to some extent in Spring 2021)</b> by the year end things will have
moderated somewhat. This was very prescient. I also said “there may be a new
foundation or government formed around now” and while that wasn’t the case the
Knesset dissolved due to budget disagreements.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">75%<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Iran<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I expected surprises to continue into August and September, as
events, local or global,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>picked up pace.
In fact this was a tiem when there were a series of explosions at key
industrial sites attributed to Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">By October and November, I said things coming to a head globally
and here is no exception as Cobid cases there rose again though as I expected not
as much as in some other countries. I thought December itself could seem like a
month on the edge, as the environment changes and this, though somewhat vague
did sum up the situation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">70%<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Canada<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As expected July August and September were relatively quiet
months with fewer Covid cases.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">October and November saw cases rising again leading as
predicted to more of a focus on the government again with some disconnect
between the people and the leadership although brief. The government survived a
confidence vote. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">December was forecast to see Canada is relatively sheltered
and to some extent this was so.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">80% particularly due to the govt situation.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Austra</span></b><b style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">lia</span></b></p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I forecast that August and September would see the people
still able to feel optimistic and with lower cases than many developed nations
this was true. October and November I said would still be ok for the people,
though the leadership once more needs to be nimble at adapting to sudden shifts
or change will be forced on it externally. Again a fair assessment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">December sees the tricky conditions that characterised the
year continuing and there were some outbreaks e.g, leading to closure of Sydney
beaches though much of the nation was carrying on as usual. I also said “by far
the most interesting part of this picture, though, is what isn’t happening. The
end of the year looks totally calm”. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">South Afric</b>a<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I said “August and September see a return to the mood early
in the year. It is a time when inflation may be very high” – in reality it was
Covid that was high- though inflation was moderately so then.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I thought that October and November would see huge momentum
for change, and a mixed financial outlook with both positive changes but also
continued inflationary ones.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And less
good for the people as<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a whole though.
If anything it was a quieter period Covid wise and economically better than
earlier in the year with the manufacturing index at a 2 ½ year high.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But I said December would be more moderate though<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>still continuing the same theme when cases
actually rose. However I did note that there could be new announcements at the
year end and this was the time of the identification of the local new variant.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>75% mixed successes</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p>Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-19058659420811940362020-10-27T08:33:00.003-07:002020-10-27T08:33:47.661-07:00The US election 2020<p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKUZKAAvcu1NYetEC0ES0TQrRTIltoxQqXmT5C_Noya2hYrCy2kigcgrH0T-OY5rUMiAFzD_Y42kiWJ_-Xe9TQ6pFEl-OL7LYr5gO9iNwVu11CCI0o0jnOhhKWa6y-IHkbDLOigJmxy6U/s713/us+election+2020.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="626" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKUZKAAvcu1NYetEC0ES0TQrRTIltoxQqXmT5C_Noya2hYrCy2kigcgrH0T-OY5rUMiAFzD_Y42kiWJ_-Xe9TQ6pFEl-OL7LYr5gO9iNwVu11CCI0o0jnOhhKWa6y-IHkbDLOigJmxy6U/w450-h320/us+election+2020.jpg" width="450" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Regular readers will know that I don’t usually bother to
predict US elections, I like to focus on countries as the country chart will
continue regardless of who is leader. Sometimes the country chart does show a
big shift especially when there is a sudden change of leader but it is more
important to see how the dynamics within the country play out economically and
politically than it is to see who is leading at any time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, this election is fascinating everyone so I thought
I would have a look. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Obviously then I am faced with the question of which charts
to look at. Much has been written elsewhere on which election day chart to use
and whether the inauguration chart is more important. Some people have also
considered the chart of the potential VPs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have decided to concentrate on the two presidential
candidates and the inauguration but I also plan to look at a chart for early on
the morning of 4<sup>th</sup> November as I think this should show the mood
after any results. I am also going to look at the charts for the Republican and
Democratic formal parties, although with caution as these are not timed charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>US Country chart</b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But, first, let’s look at what the US chart might be
suggesting. Most astrologers of the US agree that the next few years are likely
to be difficult as the country reaches its first Pluto return ( Pluto returns
to its position in the Independence chart). The whole period seems to contain
rumblings of unrest and what may well be economic challenges though 2022 seems
the worst of the coming 4 years. But this tells us little about the incoming
President as we all know the country is already very divided.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">More useful is to look at the journey of the US sun over the
4 year term. And this is interesting. Aspects to the sun and progressed sun are
far less prominent than they were in the first few years of Trump’s term ( 2020
has been a bit of an exception as he has been a victim of circumstance rather
than an initiator). Also during 2017-20<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>all significators suggested a country divided over the leader himself.
2021-24, on the other hand show the leader as less important. That doesn’t mean
that the country stops being divided merely that the President is not the focal
point any more.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Furthermore there is an interesting sign in December of 2023
almost as if there is shift in the leadership- could this be when a VP takes
over – certainly with both current candidates this could happen. Such a change
is not accompanied by any particularly hard aspects so one assumes it would be
by agreement.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">On balance, although not totally conclusive,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>these future developments suggest the leader
is more likely to be Biden than Trump. If it is Trump he will be less prominent
in his second term.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now let’s see if looking at their charts suggests the same
or a different conclusion.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Candidates vs election</b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is little to be gained from spending too much time on
the underlying charts of the candidates – Trump has been President, Biden has
been Vice President so potentials in the charts have already been fulfilled. It
is more useful to look at the transits and progressions to these charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">However reading these charts is not easy. Both have
negatives and positives in relation to the charts of the election and the
inauguration. Not entirely unexpected – it is a serious job and gaining it
won’t be all sweetness and light. So what are we looking for?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the election (actually post election day) chart I think it is
the mood we need to look at, the Moon and Mars in particular as well as Jupiter
for success. Yes the Sun and Saturn will be important when the individual
assumes office but when you’ve just found out you’ve won you are probably back
at the basic instincts of victory and feeling good. We should also look at the
chart angles.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">When it comes to Mars we can see some differences. Biden’s Mars
is at 12 Scorpio and his progressed at 7 Capricorn. Uranus is trine his
progressed Mars<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and the Sun is conjunct
his natal Mars. Both are positive indicators. There is also an interesting “
double whammy” with transiting Mars trine his progressed Sun.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In Trump’s chart we actually see a moderate opposition of
transiting Mars to his progressed Mars. We also see that the major Capricorn conjunction
and specifically Saturn is quincunx his natal Mars.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This isn’t entirely bad as his natal Mars is
very strong and both transiting Mercury and the Moon are moderately supportive
too. But on balance it seems the competitive planet favours Biden.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So, next, what about their Moons?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Trump’s moon is opposite his Sun Uranus NN and sextile his
Jupiter, progressed Venus and progressed Mercury. Immediately after the
election we see that the transiting Moon opposes his Moon picking up all those
planets. On balance this seems positive for him. His progressed Moon , however,
is approaching a square to this configuration and more seriously is closely
opposed by Neptune. That may well presage disappointment .<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Biden’s natal moon is at 0 degrees Taurus and not heavily
aspected in his chart. His progressed Moon, however, will be conjoined with his
progressed Venus square his Saturn and quincunx his Pluto as well as sexile his
progressed Mars. Transits on the day make little connection with his natal Moon
but Uranus will sexile his progressed Moon/Venus though this does also mean a
square with Pluto. While not universally positive there is also a lack of that
nasty Neptune.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">However it should be noted that Neptune is doing a long
transit to Biden’s IC not usually<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a sign
of career success at all but this may just be an indicator of the campaign to
discredit him through his family ( Hunter).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Finally Jupiter, which<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>turns out not to be so helpful. Biden has Jupiter at 25 degrees of the
cardinal signs and progressed Jupiter at 16. Trump has Jupiter at 17 of the
cardinal signs and progressed Jupiter at 24. Little to separate them then
though Trump’s Jupiter is favourably aspected by the transiting Moon while
Biden’s is not. We know Trump is lucky so maybe this could swing it his way.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So to be honest adding up all the pros and cons it is
difficult to call the result based on these charts alone.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Another matter to look at is Mercury changing direction on
the election day. It is retrograde and turning direct in 2020 as it was in 2000
when the famous recount happened. But in 2000 what made it extra interesting
was that by the end of the day after the election Mercury had already changed
signs and moved in Scorpio. In 2020 it will be changing direction at 26 degrees
of Libra and will not reach Scorpio until 10<sup>th</sup> November, a whole
week later. It’s the same but different! ( In 2012 it was turning retrograde instead
and did not change signs until 14<sup>th</sup> November and is thus a bit of a
red herring).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It may be that a result is called then overridden or that
there is a delay in determining the winner. If so I’d guess that Trump thinks
he’s won and then in the final reckoning it turns out he’s marginally lost.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Candidates vs inauguration</b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But perhaps the inauguration can help us. This time we are
not looking for winning or emotion but for power, identity and communication;
so the Sun , Mercury and perhaps Saturn (given that Jupiter is not a useful
differentiator). Obviously the outer planets will be in similar positions to
November so we ned to focus a little more on the inner ones.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Let’s first talk a little about the inauguration chart
itself. All such charts have the Sun at 0 Aquarius on the MC, but this one has
the Sun conjunct Jupiter and Saturn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
Pluto dangerously close to that MC. A nasty little Uranus Mars Moon conjunction
hides in the wings behind the Ascendant as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To say this is setting up for a challenging
Presidency is an understatement. I don’t think there is an astrologer around
that disagrees on this point. The event itself may be challenging too though if
the Covid situation continues it may well be held on-line which would certainly
cover the novel sun conjunction.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So the first thing we see in Trump’s chart is that there is
a trine between the inauguration chart mc/Pluto and his MC. Obviously this has
already played out in the previous inauguration but it is a positive indicator.
However his natal Sun and Moon do not make such a good aspect and this is
accentuated by a square from his progressed Moon. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We also see that the inauguration Moon is trine his
Ascendant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s a big plus.Or it would
be if it wasn’t also opposite his progressed Ascendant. And the latter is key.
It has moved into Scorpio. His circumstances are changing. A fact reinterated
by a North nodal return on his Uranus. This does not suggest things will carry
on as they have before. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We also note that Mercury opposes his progressed
Mercury<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but his natal Mercury is
positively aspected by the Mars Uranus configuration, as is his progressed Sun.
More changes? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Certainly if Trump is being inaugurated it is a very
different presidency.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Of course, Biden’s chart for the inauguration is equally
complex. First we see that the Pluto MC is conjunct his progressed Mercury and
opposite his Jupiter as well as sextile his Sun and Mercury. Added to which the
inauguration Mercury is conjunct his progressed Sun. It almost sounds as if he
could be making a speech.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But of course it isn’t so simple with the Mercury and
progressed Sun also being quincunx his MC ( which we know is opposed by Neptune
at the moment). And just for good measure the Node is square that MC.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">On the other hand we see that the Mars Uranus conjunction is
trine his progressed Mars and sextile his progressed Venus and Moon. And the
transiting Moon ( which is square the sun – definitely representing the
President in this chart) is conjunct his Moon. Yet all that could just mean he
embodies the people who aren’t supporting the president.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a conundrum!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b> Parties vs election</b></span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So can the charts of the Parties tell us anything more
concrete? I am treating them with some scepticism as although there are foundation
dates they are untimed and only partly represent the real origins of the two
parties.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nevertheless they both include significant synastry with
midday 20 Jan charts so I think we can use them. This time I will stick to the
post election chart, so it’s back to our friends Mars, Moon and Jupiter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">One of the first things to note is that the Republican party
have a Jupiter return<a href="file:///C:/Users/Optimesia-AW/Documents/us%20election%202020.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.
Almost everyone will tell you how great Jupiter retuens are (though I’m popping
my cynicism cap on ) but the reality is that there was also a Jupiter return in
2008 and 1996. Add in a dash of Pluto and Saturn transit and we can’t rely on
that one to pay dividends this year either. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">When we look at the Moon however things are a lot better.
Mars at election time is stationed trine the Republican moon and forming a
grand trine with its progressed Venus as well as a sextile to its progressed
Saturn. This definitely suggests the mood of a win.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But we’d expect this to be backed up by nice transit to the
Republican Mars and instead there are none. Perhaps the mood is not a win but a
common feeling of anger?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Interesting
that it will be activated on inauguration day…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">What about the Democrats? The triple conjunction of Pluto
Saturn and Jupiter picks up this chart in a big way. It is conjunct the
Democratic Uranus, opposite both Progressed Saturn and progressed Sun and
square the progressed Moon a well as approaching a trine to the Moon. It is a
key year; what’s news?. The square to the progressed Moon is not a particularly
good sign but the rest does not have to be negative ( bearing in mind that by
progression the Sun is trine the natal Moon). So it’s a mixed picture. Dramatic
but mixed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Turning to the Democratic Mars we see that the transiting
sun is conjunct the Mars Jupiter conjunction sextile Neptune and trine Saturn.
That looks promising until you realise that it will be to some extent every
election. And this time we see transiting Mars square Neptune and Saturn. It’s
another mixed bag. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">This time the Sun in the charts may also be important as it
represents the leader.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in the
Democratic chart it is mixed and in the Republican it is mildly positive but
not especially noteworthy. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">No one single one of these charts is conclusive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So we can conclude it is close – but we know that really. We
also know that it is possible to win the popular vote but not the Presidency
and that it is possible that recounts may be required.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So based on all the analysis it doesn’t look like there is a
clear winner on 3<sup>rd</sup>/4<sup>th</sup> but that Trump at least probably thinks he
winning. I expect it goes down to the last counts and Biden just pips it on the
basis of the inauguration chart comparison and the US chart which both suggest
that we will have a different kind of Presidency and that Trump’s situation is
going to change.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But I wouldn’t put money on this either way.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: endnote-list;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><!--[if !supportEndnotes]--><hr size="1" style="text-align: left;" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="edn1" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Optimesia-AW/Documents/us%20election%202020.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> <span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span>
I also note in a slight digression that the party have recently had a Neptune
return and are now approaching a Uranus return as well. Regardless of the
outcome of this election the Republican party are actually going through a
period of fundamental change and while to date it might have been relatively
gentle it is likely they need to find their direction again and the next few
years might see some of the biggest disruptions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-45161151537191639122020-10-20T11:21:00.000-07:002020-10-20T11:21:45.722-07:00Evolution by crises: Good or Bad?<p> </p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDQh612-7UGnwNj34k6TDIqgqW_9xdqz4Y3Bepk21mKJehIlfk7StIgfv2PHavpEXpWwWqCmddjLuezAMVTord4WD0wC6xfFHPqOf7_El5qoLRG1SXWSw2SFyw8F4Py9vk_V7VJTM9pvg/s540/humpty.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="304" data-original-width="540" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDQh612-7UGnwNj34k6TDIqgqW_9xdqz4Y3Bepk21mKJehIlfk7StIgfv2PHavpEXpWwWqCmddjLuezAMVTord4WD0wC6xfFHPqOf7_El5qoLRG1SXWSw2SFyw8F4Py9vk_V7VJTM9pvg/w400-h225/humpty.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Evo<span style="font-family: verdana;">lution by crises:
Good or Bad?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">With the dramatic events of 2020 at the forefront of all our
minds, it is a good time to reflect on what critical changes like this mean,
both in the astrological sense and in practical ways.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I’ve talked before about other astrologers who are more
positive and optimistic than I am. Indeed I heard a few of them speak at a
conference in Baltimore only a year ago. While all agreed that 2020 would be a
dramatic year, many of them saw opportunity and, in some cases, hearts and
flowers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You can imagine what I thought
of that! <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Often in these situations the more spiritual among
astrologers see change as a potential for the raising of consciousness, for
overcoming societal conflict and resolving the long standing problems of the
human race. It is a beautiful <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>vision but
it rarely manifests so simply. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed,
if it did, humanity would have, long ago, ascended to another plane as 21<sup>st</sup>
century western thought does not have a monopoly on transformative awareness<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But I am far too cynical and my negative assessments are no
more a valid response than is an expectation of imminent world peace.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We definitely have in 2020 a potential crisis point
astrologically ( the Pluto Saturn Jupiter conjunction)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and the outcome of crises may indeed be
positive in some cases so why is everything not coming up roses as some
suggested it might? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Well, first, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the
optimists are not wrong; they are merely underestimating the length of the
journey <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>which groups or nations must
travel as before they can start to overcome the darkness as well as the fact
that we are all, whether nation, person or planet , at a different point in our
travels.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There isn’t just one cycle operating. There are multitudes
of interconnecting ones. Each nation, each economic sector taps into a
different one. Indeed that is the very premise of astrology as each individual
or nation or organisation has its cycles encapsulated in their birth-chart.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">At the beginning of the pandemic, here in the UK, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the news was full of all the sacrifices being
made by people for each other, all the little kindnesses and the devotion to
duty. But soon it became apparent that for every individual who was selfless
there was one who was completely and entirely selfish: breaking the rules,
littering ( and worse) all over the place, abusing those trying to do their
jobs and defrauding both individuals and the taxpayer. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Worse has been the situation in countries
where the response to the virus has been overly politicised. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Clearly though there are many who are indeed on a path
towards enlightenment there are at least as many for whom 2020 is the year that
their worst traits are magnified.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Secondly, despite the fact that all the news is full of the
negatives, there <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">are</i> also beneficiaries
– both in the short and long terms-and in both the spiritual and the practical
realms. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Things are bad but some people are
reaping dividends. We just hear less of the stories that confirm the optimists’
perspective and more of the ones that reinforce my cynicism. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Finally, there is the reality is that for individuals the universe
is not a closed system . While the astrological cycles continue unchecked, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for each of us a cycle’s key point is also the
deciding crisis from which some will not recover <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The camel doesn’t survive the last straw- his
back is irretrievably broken, Humpty Dumpty can’t be put back together
again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We don’t get back to the point we
started. In economic development we don’t unlearn the control of fire or
benefits of the wheel and we don’t return to the use of horse and cart after
discovering the combustion engine.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Some sadly have died from coronavirus, some businesses will
never recover. For these individuals there are no happy endings even though, as
a whole, the world may indeed become more enlightened.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Economic trends and the
coronavirus<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">While some economic and political cycles will indeed reach a
critical point in 2020 or in 2021, many have still a long way to go and some
are in their infancy. Covid, representing the 2020 conjunction, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>has accentuated some of these.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Governments don’t have any skin in the long term trend game –
as long as they can keep things sufficiently in check through a few years of
their power to enable them to be returned to office they don’t care what
troubles are being stored up for the future. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So nothing changes until an external event
creates the necessary crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">For three decades now ( since the Uranus/Neptune/Saturn conjunction
of the early 1990s) technology has been changing the face of or society. At first
it was just how we communicated but since the advent of Amazon and its ilk we
have seen radical changes to the way we purchase <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>retail products. There has been a gradual shift
away from the high street and the malls. Obviously the technology companies
have revelled in this while local and national governments have worried about
the impact on jobs, taxes and property markets. Policy changes have been
minimal tinkering.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But anyone who thought that 2020 might lead to a switch back
to high street stores has been in for a disappointment. Covid has brought about
the opposite. In the UK at least, high streets have been emptied, retail and
hospitality chains have gone into liquidation and a whole new bunch of
customers have discovered the benefits of on-line grocery shopping. While some
of the changes will turn out to be temporary, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>many are permanent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The impact of this has not yet fully flowed
through the economy and the impact on often highly indebted commercial property
owners has hardly began. This will in turn have a knock-on effect on Local
authorities relying on business rates to provide its services. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Similarly, due to falling hardware prices, telecommunications
advances and internet connectivity <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it has been possible for many years to conduct
large chunks of most office jobs from almost anywhere with a good signal. But
companies have resisted such changes to their control over their wage slaves<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In this case Covid has not so much accelerated a trend but
created a whole new way of living for many.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And once again we must ask what will be the long term impact on
urban/office areas, property markets and local government <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>budgets.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">On the other hand, so called “Technology” companies, already
on upward trajectories for the last few decades, have generally benefitted from
the 2020 crisis, but while I don’t see this trend reversing at a grass roots
level, at a stock market level some of the valuations have become ludicrous.
That cycle currently diverging from the others will meet its nemesis at some
point too. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And once more I don’t see any
attempt to mitigate the obvious downsides that will occur.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is no going back to the way things were. New solutions
must be found. Unfortunately governments will remain resistant to offering
creative solutions to longer term economic change. In this case 2020 is merely
sewing seeds for a future economic<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>crisis. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Furthermore ,the impact of the Coronavirus on economies
across the world is well documented. Governments have had to reach up into
their magic money trees to help businesses and individuals survive what are
“unprecedented” times. This has accentuated the already questionably high debt
position of many of those nations . There have been few countries that have
been plunged into debt crises this year but it can only be a matter of time and
the appropriate future points in global and national astrological cycles when
the whole edifice collapses.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">National pressures<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As examples here we can consider Lebanon and Belarus<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In Lebanon a single event ( the docklands explosion) had the
potential to tip an already simmering situation into a new scenario. The
government resigned and there was potential for a new administration and an
international bailout, negotiated by the French, if certain conditions could be
met. However the various factions in the country have not been able to come to
agreement and the country continues its seeming inexorable decline. There is a
chance to take the country down a new and possibly better path now but that isn’t
happening- <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>what is for sure is that
whatever the outcome it has already shifted to a very different trajectory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Belarus is<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>another
country where there is significant dissatisfaction with the leadership. However
in this case the result so far has been the consolidation of power by the
leadership with crackdowns on the protests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It may be that the opposition will garner enough strength to overcome
the government peacefully but it is more likely that life will get more difficult
before it gets better – we may have to wait to the next crisis point in a cycle
for things to change there.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>USA</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Another country where the 2020 crisis conjunction is causing
things to escalate but without any sign of resolution is the USA. We were
already in a cycle of increasing polarisation of the right and left that dates
back almost 3 decades and has led to increasing difficulty for administrations
to pass even the most sensible of legislation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But we are also dealing with much longer cycles -The Black Lives Matter protests
are the culmination of the events and prejudices of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>centuries rather than decades.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">These protests, initiated for genuine reasons, have brought
all sorts of other unrelated groups out of the woodwork. On the one hand
extreme, in some cases white supremacist,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Right Wing groups, and on the other some so called supporters of the
Antifa movement who seem closer again to anarchy ( extreme libertarianism) than
the left wing socialism the name suggests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Whether you agree with some of the more extreme examples or not, they
are a product of previous cycles and formed in response to previous smaller
crises.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are a product of the incremental
development and governance of the nation that is the USA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So in the US we have
a moderate amount of disparate <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>civil
unrest at the moment. Civil unrest may be a way of the people making their
voices heard but it can also be a whisker away from civil war. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Astrologically, though with certain provisos<a href="file:///C:/Users/Optimesia-AW/Documents/astro%20various/Evolution%20by%20crises.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>,
I think we are close to a tipping point in the USA that will manifest in the
next few years as Pluto returns to its position at the time of Independence.
This will inevitably have an economic and market impact as well and because of
the vulnerability created by high debt levels perhaps then undermine the
historic financial strength of the dollar. We will look at this in more depth
in a future post.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Climate change,
resource usage and environmental threats<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">A much bigger crisis lies in the wings and has taken a bit
of a back seat in 2020. There was even a brief point during the coronavirus
shutdowns where satellite images showed reduced pollution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However that has been more than offset by
increased plastic use as part of virus protection.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We’ve seen also the impact on oil prices and briefly some
commodities.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">On the other hand there is little attention paid to the rare
elements that are being used up in some sectors.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Overall we have not really even begun to address<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the complex economic and political questions
of this area<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But I don’t believe that 2020 is the year of crisis for this
area. Yet it is clear from the attitudes of both leadership and people that
crises will inevitably follow at some time in the future. I am not sure we can
avoid them but I will still spend time, at some point, considering the
astrology of when exactly those crises might occur.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">And the last word
goes to Covid<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Something to think about here. The Jupiter /Saturn/Pluto conjunction
has brought <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>something we think is our
worst nightmare. But in fact, although it is very contagious, it is rather mild
for many people. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Look around you now at this crisis point and see how
everyone is behaving. Are they taking it seriously, or are they blasé? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For this may be the only such test that the
universe will throw us, on the other hand it may just be a trial run for a
greater test in the next decade or so. It is already possible to see who would resist
any impositions in a future pandemic and thus who may or may not survive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The crises will keep coming and we must adapt to survive- we
must never just accept that we will be fine if we do the same as we did last
time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">A crisis may be final but as the optimists home, it may just
be a time when we realise the error of our ways and at least start to amend our
behaviour so that at the next point in the cycle we may be better fit to deal
with whatever is thrown our way.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="mso-element: endnote-list;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></div><!--[if !supportEndnotes]--><hr size="1" style="text-align: left;" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="edn1" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Optimesia-AW/Documents/astro%20various/Evolution%20by%20crises.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""></a><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-12945383333972571122020-09-09T03:20:00.002-07:002020-09-09T03:20:47.102-07:00I can't breathe<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><br /><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"></span></strong></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<strong><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBIMac4_6lQ5YuiUSblV1SskRpdJNL3lv9vu5aJvEvD5SdaQadCLDPeCDF2Z0vMezdN0MrN8_5J7cMnk1A7384QQdEgCB7fucZYRt3dI2Xb_aD8ecP7c0zPIaTOzGVNh9TwNrBUyv5VzU/s1600/redirect-27.png" imageanchor="1" style="background-color: #073763; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1155" data-original-width="1155" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBIMac4_6lQ5YuiUSblV1SskRpdJNL3lv9vu5aJvEvD5SdaQadCLDPeCDF2Z0vMezdN0MrN8_5J7cMnk1A7384QQdEgCB7fucZYRt3dI2Xb_aD8ecP7c0zPIaTOzGVNh9TwNrBUyv5VzU/s320/redirect-27.png" width="320" /></a></strong></div>
<span style="background-color: #073763;"><strong><o:p></o:p></strong><br /></span>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="background-color: #073763; color: black; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A<span style="color: #cfe2f3;">s I mentioned in my 6 month 2020 review, I can’t
claim to have identified the symbolism for the coronavirus pandemic despite
concluding by a process of elimination that a virus was a likely event.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Of course, the conjunction of Saturn Pluto and
Jupiter was going to be significant. And Saturn and Pluto together are rarely a
bunch of laughs- so one could reasonably forecast dark events; restrictions,
destruction, losses, fear, civil disruption and even death. However Pluto and
Saturn together alone don’t suggest pandemics. Added to this triple conjunction
was the transit of Mars through that conjunction in the early part of the year.
Mars does rule infection and inflammation but, by itself, isn’t going to cause
a pandemic. The sextile with Neptune might suggest globalisation of any effects
but once again we are missing the specifics not to mention the fact that
Neptune and Pluto are in a long term sextile so aren’t by themselves going to
suggest anything that isn’t continuous already. Where is the symbolism for the
virus affecting the lungs and wider biology.<o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Furthermore, the inclusion of Jupiter in the picture
that confused matters for me. Jupiter rules all things positive and expansive,
and some people even saw it as negating the impact of the Saturn Pluto effects.
Jupiter can, on the other hand, just make things bigger- so there was always
the possibility of major upheaval, particularly in markets but that wouldn’t
normally be associated with a pandemic. <o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I wouldn’t have revisited the question (as there is
no credit to be given for hindsight) if it had not been for the death of George
Floyd and the associated Black Lives Matter protests which were accompanied by
his last words that struck a cord about the theme: “I can’t breathe”<o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As I have myself had the delight of the conjunction
on my Ascendant and progressed Midheaven this year and have personally
experienced my own “ I can’t breathe” manifestation ( significant asthma
brought on by a(/the?) virus), this interested me enough to get me digging out
my books.<o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Since I knew that neither Saturn nor Pluto had
associations with breathing in particular, I decided to start by looking up the
medical associations with Jupiter.<o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">And this was the quote that caught my eye.<o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong><span style="line-height: 115%;">“The illnesses of
Jupiter</span></strong><span style="line-height: 115%;"> include
all afflictions that are connected to the circulation of air and blood in the
body. These include corruption of the liver, lungs (and illnesses involving the
rib cage), and blood circulation (including the heart and veins).” <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.skyscript.co.uk/astrology_jupiter.html">http://www.skyscript.co.uk/astrology_jupiter.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So there we have it. Jupiter in this case wasn’t the benefic,
it was the channel or pathway to the human body and specifically the lungs (and
increasingly experts have noted the involvement of the blood and circulatory
system in the illness too). A virus (probably signified by Mars) which
otherwise might have gone nowhere,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>attacked the lungs (Jupiter) of people making it difficult (Saturn) for
them to breathe and was spread rapidly through 20th/21st century globalisation
( Neptune) across the world causing fear ( Pluto), restrictions<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>( Saturn) upheavals in the markets<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>( Saturn Pluto Jupiter) and deaths ( Pluto
& Saturn).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As I said, easy in hindsight.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But only easy beforehand if you know all your
planetary medical associations which I am ashamed to say I didn’t! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: #073763; color: #cfe2f3; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">There is of course a great deal more to say about both Covid
and about the underlying conditions that have given rise to the Black Lives
Matter movement but they need to be addressed individually later when they can be given the serious attention they deserve.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-83933323121020880022020-09-02T11:42:00.004-07:002020-09-02T11:46:00.221-07:00Rewriting the stars<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: "verdana";"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh76tfk1zPcdoYKr-ovgSvIjI0qa75MR8e3PjdOpak3Ahx4QhaKYFOE4u5eO_MlCnO2P5WXwcyUytDXyBIN9EhCOrLJJl0GNFeQYQTsH3yfnEuhEahcgIRSFrV7KAwpdLrKKtqCznxGUKY/s2048/cbb5f53c9be5120f0887992633f048af.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1229" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh76tfk1zPcdoYKr-ovgSvIjI0qa75MR8e3PjdOpak3Ahx4QhaKYFOE4u5eO_MlCnO2P5WXwcyUytDXyBIN9EhCOrLJJl0GNFeQYQTsH3yfnEuhEahcgIRSFrV7KAwpdLrKKtqCznxGUKY/s320/cbb5f53c9be5120f0887992633f048af.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";">No one can rewrite the stars…<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">….It's not up to you</span></div>
<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span><br /></span>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">It's not up to me</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "verdana";"><span style="color: white; font-size: 12pt;">When everyone tells us what we can be</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";">
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">How can we rewrite the stars?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Say that the world can be ours</span></div>
<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN"><i>Pasek and Paul from the
Greatest Showman</i></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana";"> </span></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";">For the first time for a while I’m bringing the astrology directly back
into my posts; well, at least the principles rather than the practical prediction.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">Personal astrologers are often asked how astrology works. And it is
usually a loaded question, full of righteous scepticism; the implication being
that astrology is a load of nonsense and the astrologer is, at best, deluded,
at worst, a charlatan. Whatever the attempted answer the questioner will continue
to believe that the poor deluded astrologer will one day wake up and smell the
free will.</span><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">But as the song lyrics above suggest, perhaps we have a lot less free
will than we might like to hope. You don’t need to believe a word of any
mumbo-jumbo to recognise the words “ it’s not up to you, it’s not up to me,
when everyone tells us what we can be”.</span><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">
</span><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">We don’t have to believe that “Hell is other people” to know how much we
are constrained by our family, friends and our wider society.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">That is the environment of the personal astrologer though. For the
economic and political astrologer the situation is slightly different and
frankly even worse. Sometimes, as I am doing today, we find ourselves asking
does any individual really have a significant influence on the path of world
developments or are we all just cogs in a big machine, some brighter, shinier
and more noticeable than others perhaps, but in the end no more or less
effective? Never has there been a time to address these questions but in 2020
when Covid-19 has seemingly made so many of us victims of circumstances outside
our control.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">But we will talk more about Covid elsewhere, this post is about wider
issues.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">Take Donald Trump for example (yes, please do). He’d like to think he is
President of the US due to his own brilliance, but even his most avid
supporters contend that he is the product of decades of flawed economic and
political behaviour on the part of his predecessors and the wider governmental and
corporate networks. I would, in fact, support that contention, though I would
most definitely not suggest he is the right solution!</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">But it is not just him. In the last few years, prior to the catalyst of
economic destruction that is Covid, here in the UK we saw the collapse of two
listed companies, Carillion and Patisserie Valerie. In the former the problems
seem to have been bad decisions and deals, in the latter the problems were a
bad business hidden by fictitious accounting. On the surface quite different
situations, but both involved individuals who were under pressure from the
environment they operated in: to show growth, to appease their stakeholders, to
satisfy government departments , regulators, lenders, consumers, employees. In
the end we can see that the outcome was pretty much inevitable even if it
appears superficially that it was down to person M making decision R on day Z.
Organisational cultures don’t just matter they determine.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">So it’s back to the deterministic astrology then.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">When I say that something is likely to happen, in France or Mexico or
Turkey, it is not an event that comes out of the blue like a random meteor (
although arguably we should be able to see if one of those is about to strike
too, or at least the impact -pun intended !), it is the product of decades,
even centuries, of decisions, changes and even inventions and most of all of
group cultures, be they political, national, societal, or corporate.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">Therefore, today’s climate of capitalism, debt and oil supported democracies,
environmental concerns and populations addicted to consumerism, prescription
and illegal drugs and more and more credit is not just the result of government
policies or capitalist greed but of the actions of all of us and our ancestors.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">So where is it leading?</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana";"> </span></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";"><br /></span></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">As I’ve mentioned before I see the end of the Pluto Neptune sextile as
the end of the 20</span><sup style="font-family: verdana;">th</sup><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"> century consumption/oil/credit boom.</span><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">To mix our metaphors horribly, the Western
debt and consumption snowball cannot continue to grow, at some point the last
straw will break the camel’s back.</span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Optimesia-AW/Documents/astro%20various/No%20one%20can%20rewrite%20the%20stars.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 12pt;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span></span></a></span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/Users/Optimesia-AW/Documents/astro%20various/No%20one%20can%20rewrite%20the%20stars.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 12pt;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="color: white; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></span></a></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">So does that mean we are all on an unstoppable trajectory? Where we are
today is certainly a product of all our yesterdays, But perhaps we can make a
difference; change the destiny of not just ourselves but of whole communities,
corporations and countries?</span><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">Change those
ingrained cultures that determine our collective fates. Where we are today is
still a product of all those yesterdays but where we are tomorrow is also the
product of the decisions we make today.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">Yet, I am afraid my feeling, as I look at the overall results of this 12
year old project, is that things are hurtling inexorably towards the worst
conclusion. This astrologer is not deluded, merely very depressed!</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">However individuals are not programmed just to accept their fate. While
we remain uncertain of the future, we can, at least in theory, try to change
it.</span><span style="font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">So, whether you are someone who believes astrologers are deluded and is
determined to prove my predictions wrong, or you are a believer in astrology
but prepared to embrace the possibility that there are paths to follow as a
society that are as yet not part of our consciousness, my challenge to you is
to prove astrological determinism wrong by changing the cultures in which you
operate and thereby change our collective fates.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">If so, you may prefer to reflect on the final chorus of the song</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";"><br /></span></div>
<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">…It's up to you. And it's up to me</span></div>
<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span><br /></span>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12pt;">No one can say what we get to be</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: "verdana";"><span style="color: white; font-size: 12pt;">And why don't we rewrite the stars?</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana";">
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Changing the world to be ours…….</span></div>
<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: white;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Optimesia-AW/Documents/astro%20various/No%20one%20can%20rewrite%20the%20stars.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">Part of the reason will be the collapse of a pyramid. In no arena is the
fact that we are all cogs in a huge wheel more apparent than in this
pyramid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">We all like to think we would recognise a Ponzi
scheme if one showed up at our door, yet we are all quite innocently living in
the biggest one ever. Of course this one isn’t a scam as such just product of
societal development. The word pyramid is the clue, though we are not talking
here about them in the context of Egypt and the Pharoahs, but in terms of population
pyramids. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">We’ve all seen the pictures of the classic
population pyramid. But in the Western world they don’t look like that
anymore.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are increasingly
population rectangles.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "arial" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt;">Of course we don’t just have Western populations,
we’ve got Asian ones and perhaps African ones to support our consumption. For
the moment. But not forever. Just because centuries of western growth has been
gained by “enslaving” ( literally or effectively) other groups doesn’t mean
that it can continue indefinitely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
fact that we have reached a dangerous level of overall population is also a
factor in the world drawing closer to the end of this phase,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-34731982714513004442020-06-05T13:01:00.003-07:002020-06-05T13:01:36.208-07:00January to May 2020 review introduction<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0pUtdKblG93y-7ecpj7BNGFXYZQm0TtK65do_DeZCrWQ1gZJYj2i9prhFmdF9hyphenhyphenY8YBeptWRbkOZUkzRBZdvVK3Vkq3Z2JmFIPdr2rmSfPwuzRRd9VfOQo4Uo5vuarAha4aNMESQFGDg/s1600/1044998_10151995220824619_1732831381_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="640" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0pUtdKblG93y-7ecpj7BNGFXYZQm0TtK65do_DeZCrWQ1gZJYj2i9prhFmdF9hyphenhyphenY8YBeptWRbkOZUkzRBZdvVK3Vkq3Z2JmFIPdr2rmSfPwuzRRd9VfOQo4Uo5vuarAha4aNMESQFGDg/s400/1044998_10151995220824619_1732831381_n.jpg" width="266" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So now we move on to the more interesting period. But that
most definitely requires a bit of introduction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It was patently clear when I wrote these forecasts in 2016
that something major was going to occur in 2020. However, used as I was, to
look for economic triggers, I failed to find the trigger for 2020. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I returned to the question time and again in 2017-19, reading
others’ forecasts ( many of which confirmed that something big was in the air
but not what) and even attending conference lectures in the hope that someone
would say something that might just point me in the right direction. Other than
( for the most part) being very negative about the period, they did not.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">What really bothered me was that based on my chart I too was
going to be affected. So finally during a conversation last summer I said the
only thing I could think of was a virus, we debated the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>correlation between the configurations that
were coming and the significators for a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>virus and agreed it wasn’t necessarily obvious at all. So I can’t claim
to have predicted it using astrology – only by a process of elimination.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nevertheless, I did plan to write it up as a possibility.
But the Universe was not having any of that. It made absolutely sure that I was
so busy from September to January that I had no time to publish my thoughts. I
find that both fascinating and rather disturbing. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There was another post that I failed to publish last year,
because I was unhappy with my conclusion: the post was about the possibility of
changing fate. I now feel I can finish it but not with the original conclusion
at all. My new conclusion : some things will happen and absolutely no one can
stop them. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So anyway back to the details. I have dealt with each
country separately as usual though I have reduced the detail a little where it
adds little to the review and I have ordered them broadly according to the evolution
of the virus in this case, though I have mostly kept regions together. I have
posted the detail separately – see post below that precedes this one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">That’s it for the update – the next post will deal with some
thoughts on the next 6 months<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-29408288386878235062020-06-05T12:56:00.002-07:002020-06-05T12:56:41.022-07:00Review January to May 2020<div style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9RPcWyw1EhSCCPvyVwbLOEX_KtQl8FsmGMiOOjnqcCe2F4QQAPZ1zeQL7_EdG12MDJJpy1ZjYrivKE0RAQaCmQZV1TIX2rof-Mq1XL2LwO7O4H_FcL15vfvgK3tTIHbjBQRSUHcyvOjY/s1600/corona.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9RPcWyw1EhSCCPvyVwbLOEX_KtQl8FsmGMiOOjnqcCe2F4QQAPZ1zeQL7_EdG12MDJJpy1ZjYrivKE0RAQaCmQZV1TIX2rof-Mq1XL2LwO7O4H_FcL15vfvgK3tTIHbjBQRSUHcyvOjY/s400/corona.png" width="400" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">China<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of course China is the birthplace of the main 2020 event. I
did say it would be a year of more drama with shocks to come with longer
consequences. You can say that again.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My forecast for January was odd – saying that huge support
for the Chinese leadership was combined with belligerence. Of course in
retrospect we see the combination of military lockdowns and international
opinion at this time as the seriousness of the virus became clear- contrast the
resentment that the information had been suppressed with the admiration for the
quick hospital building etc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then said that the next 3 months would be more mixed
with<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>continuing economic issues<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as well as some aggressive action (economic
warfare rather than anything more). It is a pretty reasonable forecast as we
have the continued restrictions in country as well as the US/China trade
issues. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>May
and June are merely a continuation but with less drama which appears about
right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Renminbi<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2020 is another year of active trade and exchange.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January did see the expected<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>continued swings and I correctly noted that there are big forces at play
but they are not pushing the currency in any one direction now –i.e despite
events the currency was not significantly affected. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought February would see more of the same (volatility
and adjustment but little trend), and it did.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also thought that March to May would see<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>more adjustment, especially of interest rates
and other policy measures to contain the uncertainty and this was the case as
the currency fell somewhat ( it does not move very much normally so small trend
movements are noteworthy)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Shanghai Composite<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that 2020 would be a very serious year when the
country and the market is quite controlled. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I forecast January would see a key turning point and this
happened<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in the last week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>February did indeed see more of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the same as the market fluctuated without
clear direction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">. I then said that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>March through to June would see big movements of capital which affect
the market and different components in different ways. However I predicted
major increases in value overall when in fact March saw a big fall. The
remaining part of the period has seen gains however.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">70% - mostly good but offset by the wrong direction <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">HK$<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I didn’t have much to say here – obviously January and
February 2020 did see a greater intensity in global pressures on value.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also thought March to June would see this escalate
further. There was some minor strengthening But now events re China are
creating the restrictions I expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">70% - not a particularly bad forecast just not very
extensive<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Hang Seng<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although the market did dip a little in late January overall
the expectation that the 2 early months of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>2020 would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>see confusion and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>may a tricky period for investors, the
general trend would be for relative stability and continued support for the
index and this overall was so.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I said March to<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>June would be more mixed, but again there is support and the index fell
but then held its value in April and May.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I made the interesting comment that running the index is
more problematic than holding it now. With coronavirus followed by China’s
interference it does seem as if running anything in Hk has been difficult these
last few months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">more or less back where it started but I should have seen
the major move mid<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>March.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Japan<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January was just expected to be a continuation of 2019 which
was right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that February would be somewhat better, despite
the ongoing issues, but in fact the economy was on the brink of recession and
the leadership approval at a low.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But I
also thought though that things would be very unsettled at this time. Obviously
the virus created an unsettling situation <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March would see a major breakthrough, and the
government having to make some concessions and the country very much in the
global eye. At this point the country looked vulnerable to a major outbreak and
was subject to criticism but introduced restrictions which were generally
adopted. The Olympics in the end had to be cancelled.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>April to
June to be a period of reassessment and adjustment generally and it does seem
that way as cases fall and the country opens up again somewhat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yen<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Once again I predicted 2020 as a year of big currency
movements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With January 2020 seeing<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>some upside for Yen investors. In fact there
was no a great change overall either way – though it marginally strengthened
over the month. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that February<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>would be more difficult,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with
debt restructuring and interest rate changes and major action by the central
bank. The currency fell, then recovered at the end of the month. There were no
interest rate changes though there was the first emergency package because of
the virus.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to June would see this escalate
–and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the Yen strengthened rapidly in
early March but fell back by the month end before settling down slowly over
April and May. Further fiscal actions were taken. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">70% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nikkei<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that January and February would see more volatility,
and although I thought that this may well be accompanied by big rises,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the clearest thing is the change of direction
in prices now and sure enough the market which had been steadily rising for a
few months suddenly fell in February.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to June would be a mixed period and
that some weakness is possible, but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>far
less volatility and more trend now. Having reached a bottom Mid March the index
started to rise again and volatility started to decrease as it did so.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">South Korea<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I forecast that January and February 2020 would be
interesting with difficulties for the government. I incorrectly attributed this
to global financial issues<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>rather than a
global virus though. Korea was one of the first countries affected. But I did
predict that the people would be are broadly supportive of policies and this
was most definitely the case.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is interesting
that I then said March through to July is even more positive and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>can overcome any issues. It has been a leader
in beating the virus – despite periodic new outbreaks<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">90%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">North Korea<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>continued
aggressive or military action in Janaury and February – and a new hardline
military leader was appointed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and
continued resistance to renewing talks confirmed this. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I thought however
that the leadership benefits from propaganda and be enabled by events. No doubt
the internal claims that the country is not affected by the virus have enhanced
the leader’s image. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I did not forecast the apparent disappearance of KJU – but
since it seems to have been a non-event in retrospect that is not so
surprising.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I did say that May to July would be a period where the
leader seemed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to benefit from huge power
but not without cost to external relationships and this could be nuclear
related –and this appears to be exactly what is happening at the moment with
KJU taking of nuclear deterrant.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Australia<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After the fires of 2019 I thought January and February would
see a shift in focus for the people but with positive expectation mixed with
tricky issues for the country . The fires were under control by the end of
January, though there were floods to contend with instead. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I thought that it would be an excellent time for the
leadership though, particularly the early part of the period and in reality the
reverse was true as the Prime Minister’s approval plummeted then<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to June would continue the tricky
themes making adjustments due to large forces outside its control!! Couldn’t
have described it better. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And I also said that later it appears to be a time when the
country is generally seen in a positive light and this has been true as
Australia have managed the Covid crisis much better than many countries<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">75% - would have been more if it wasn’t for that approval
rating<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Iran<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Iran was the next virus hotspot.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that January and February would be<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>intense with more “assertive” language and a
challenging time. The year began with the country accidentally shooting down a
jet and engaged in conflict ( words anD missiles) with the US. And then the coronavirus
arrived in Iran for February.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that resources might improve during this period,
but sanctions and economic restrictions continued – although the stock market
soared.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to July when focus was on the people
and their desire for freedom. This is in retrospect too generic – although no
doubt they are thinking of less restrictions due to the virus it tells us
nothing about the wider country situation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">65% started well then lost its way<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Italy<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Swiftly on the heels of Iran the virus settled in in Italy<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It must be said that once again I nailed it with the most
innocuous comment “2020 is a key year for the country – of course it seems to
be a key year for many countries, but in Italy the theme relates to the way the
country<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>has been and is run much more
than elsewhere.” The focus was very much on Italy and its administration
through the March health crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>January and February would see<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>big changes at leadership level but they aren’t created by out and out
conflict of any kind. This was only half right – the government were struggling
to maintain a majority because of issues relating to their election promises
for change.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But then I said that March and April see the themes
continuing with more optimism. Which clearly wasn’t the case – there was little
time to do anything other than deal with the crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I did identify financial obstacles. I also said
there may also be some seismic ( literally) events that need attending to. Not
literally but certainly metaphorically confirming my more general assessment of
the year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">65% - I am disappointed. I think I was nearly there but just
didn’t nail it<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">France<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January 2020 was relatively quiet in France.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then said February and March are more challenging. “There
is a situation with other country(ies) which is at odds with the direction
France is moving leading to a bit of a stalemate”. Of course once more I did
not see a virus but the fact that I mentioned other countries and the fact that
I mentioned stalemate ( which is pretty damn close in nature to lockdown) I can
be proud of. But it does underscore how hard it is to read something when there
is an unknown unknown.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yes again to April to June seeing the international
situation escalate somewhat. However the mention of lack of diplomatic
solutions was a red herring, we will have to see what opening up the country
does for the rest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Spain<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January was not so important as expected for Spain .<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I did say that February and March would be a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>period when the leadership will face some
obstacles, (although it is not one where there is likely to be a change of
leader). Though I can’t claim to have foreseen the lockdown here. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My comments for the later period are rather about the longer
term, and are not yet measurable<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">70% - not enough detail again <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Germany<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of course2019’s leadership issues were key to the start of
the year. But I said by February though the focus shifts back to financial
matters – although this is not entirely true the focus of criticism did reduce.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then said that March to July is a long period when there
are real global political issues relating to protectionism and nationalism and
which seem to involve the country setting the pace. Of course I did not
identify the underlying virus issue but the rest is spot on. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Euro<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although I thought that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>January would have its challenges I thought Euro<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>leadership would be positive – there was
certainly some positive news , but I thought there may be more attempts to
manage rates<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>which did not happen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I think it enough to say that I said that February would be
a confusing months for traders – just look at the $/Euro chart for February and
early March.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought March to June would be noteworthy<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with global debt issues prominent and
although there were<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>threats to the
value,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>there were some supporting
factors that suggest that there are grounds for optimism. The large
fluctuations of the earlier period have reduced and the value is on average
holding despite everything.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Switzerland<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not too much to say about the early part of the year in
Switzerland.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was not however right that March to June could risk that
the people will vote through some radical changes now, not all of which are in
the longer term best interests as the referenda for May have been cancelled.
And it is possible that the initiatives from now will indeed have consequence
albeit not voted on by the people. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I did also mention
that the government would find itself vulnerable and unable to lead properly –
the unintended consequence of the virus actions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Still one of the weaker forecasts<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ireland<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January was quiet in the run up to the February elections.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that despite developments and exciting news in
February, the overall conditions would be<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>similar to January. The result of the election was a 3 way race and
although the previous government had acknowledged defeat, they remained as
caretakers. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly said that March to July would be the first part
of an almost year <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>long change. I thought
there would be a sense of inertia within government and changes would be fast
and furious but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>outside their control.
Nicely, though completely serendipitously,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>summing up the combination of coalition forming and coronavirus events. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">UK<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Uk though is an exception.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I started my forecast
saying that I expected 2020 to be a year with a change at the head of the Royal
family. This so far has not proved to be the case exactly but one can’t ignore
the impact of Harry and Meghan’s decision on the family as a whole.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also noted that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>though it should have been an election year, it was quite possible we
will have had an election earlier in the period- which was a bit of an
understatement really.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that January would start with difficulties, not
just in the UK but globally. Another understatement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I noted that there was a lot of f trade
relating to the UK, possibly due to property market difficulties but of course
it was ( finally) Brexit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I thought that February through to April <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>would be mixed. With the focus less on
nationalistic matters and more on royal ones. Initially this was true but
obviously by mid March the questions were over the virus.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Now comes a comment that is fascinating. I said “There is
also another period of deception and misinformation, although this is likely to
be the best thing for the nation as a whole” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and “Expect rapidly changing conditions”. It
made no sense when I wrote it but it does now <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nevertheless I got May partly wrong as I assumed the Euro
cup would go ahead, although of course the mood has changed and become less
serious as the month progresses.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80% - some good calls but some weak
assumptions<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Sterling<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Sterling did indeed start 2020 as 2019 ( post election) ended
with gradual falls and of course there were policy ( Brexit related) changes
afoot. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I noted that February and March would see more of the same
trends, but more<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>focus on debt matters
which by late March it certainly was. Though Debt has been easy to raise so far
at least – there was a time in March when the currency took a real dive vs the
dollar at least.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Then I said that April to June , saw more debt being focus
of the people with policies to manage the currency and restrictions. The
policies were more about funding the economy but basically this was correct too<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">FTSE<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected the beginning of the year to be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>an overall positive, if not entirely rational,
direction and until mid February.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I said February and March would be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as much about the trading itself than the
value of the stocks. But of course what I saw as technology proved to be something
quite different and the value was severely hit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I then said April to June still looks positive. I <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>said that I was finding it hard to believe
that people will still be buying stocks so consistently at this point but it
looks like they will. While the market has not recovered they really still are
buying and it has gone up 20% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Greece<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I really didn’t read this one right at all saying there was
unlikely to be a worse time to be the leaders in Greece than in early 2020. In
fact things were looking better than in a decade.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I was right that in March there would be a completely
new environment to contend with.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was sort of right re April and May. The situation is mixed
and of course coronavirus has created a distinctly difficult situation for the
country/people, although not as bad as in many places and there is indeed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>hope of economic improvement as the country
comes out of lockdown. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I also said there is<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>once again an attempt to unseat the government/leader which doesn’t seem
to be the case at all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">40%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Iceland<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that January and February of 2020 are months when
the people are likely to raise most objections and there were<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>strike<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>votes planned<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that Iceland would be only indirectly affected by
events now and there may<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>even be a boost
for the government. There were no cases until end of February but the risk was
good for the government.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Obviously I was correct in saying that March to June would
be a period when people aren’t quite sure what is going to happen but that the
country could<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>harness now to make
progress and it has certainly contained the virus by now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">70 – ok but a bit lacking in depth<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Indonesia<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Moving back to Asia now<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My focus for Indonesia in January and February 2020 was (
correctly as it seems) more local . I expected opposition resistance to
government policy which was definitely true.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I also expected some tricky de-stabling matters – there is nothing that
appears obvious other than of course the initial response to the virus threat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to July is similar, with bigger
financial obstacles and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the situation
would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>make the leadership vulnerable to
being overturned, or at least needing an internal shake up. This is more or
less true, the virus has created a need for more debt and the government’s weak
response has been criticised. Although local elections have been postponed it
is expected that the results would not be supportive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">65% - although I was right on some specifics I don’t think I
really grasped the overall situation <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Rupiah<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the
currency in January and February 2020 would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>not be strongly impacted by events which was indeed true – there been
very little movement in the period. I was also right to expect an interest rate
change ( which happened in February)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I thought March onwards would be much the same .
There was certainly another interest rate change and also the expected
volatility and overall it does look like the currency will end up <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">75% - good forecast just not enough of it<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">India<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I saw January<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as the
beginning of turning point, with possible impetus<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>outside the country. The new budget was
presented just at the beginning of the next month so it will certainly be a
turning point and of course external events were about to change things too.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected February and March to be dramatic, with<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>unexpected instability and of course the
virus crisis led to a lockdown of the 1.3b people in March and huge movement of
migrant workers. There was no need for any actual earthquakes <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was floundering<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>bit
when I came to the April to June prediction . I could see it would be very
difficult for the people but without the understanding of the Virus,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I could not pin down the events, . Given this
it was a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>great attempt I also
predicted<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>financial upheaval which of
course has been a consequence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Rupee<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly thought that January and February would be more
mixed but with a turning point in the value of the currency – this actually
happened<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>right at the end of February.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There were no interest rate changes in these 2 months
though.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March and April would be again mixed with
stabilising influences<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>offset by
questions over fundamental value. However I underestimated the significant fall
in value in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>early March ( arguably
though this was part of the February event) although I was right about
volatility.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was right that May would see this continuing and that
there would be changes in rates and other actions by the bank.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Sensex<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I completely blew the January and February forecast for
this, saying that it would not be flat and uneventful months. But it was.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">At least I correctly forecast a big shock for investors in
March to May- saying it could be a one off or more likely the start of a shake
up phase that lasts into 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pakistan<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2020 were expected to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>see the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>focus on the outside world . Otherwise things continued much as 2019
still. And I nailed it when saying there was a sense that things are not
entirely controllable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected the problems to continue March onwards with
external relations more polarised. I forecast the people and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>government would be over-whelmed. The
coronavirus has indeed made other matters worse, and Pakistan has had to ask
for more aid, added to which they then had a plane crash and there were also
the suggested floods as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Definitely
overwhelmed and difficult..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">USA<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Now let’s go to where the action is as I write.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">When I wrote “2020 is characterised by a very unstable image
for the country and by continued financial difficulties. But the focus has
moved away from the leadership itself” I didn’t understand it – how could Trump
not be always the focus, but of course although he is still tweeting for all
he’s worth, the population are more worried about the virus and now the protests
than him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said the US may some protection these January and
February<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it is not likely to escape
difficult debate …… or a sense of helplessness.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is certain that the status quo will be disrupted. Virus virus virus-
easy in retrospect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then said March and April are harder still. The country
seems to be running headlong into fundamental conflict at this time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course I did not expect the enemy for
these two months to be invisible. I also thought debt would be important- we
now have much more of it and by the end of the period more short term financial
restrictions are the result. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In May I predicted “a sense of instability although opportunity
to change for the better”. Which is just WOW. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I thought<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>the people should take care over these few months…..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">95% one of my best in ages<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">US dollar<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I started with “ the world faces a broader crisis in 2020”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that January does look to be a better month for the
dollar, perhaps shocks elsewhere make it more attractive. There is lots of
currency trade. But perhaps it wasn’t so attractive though it certainly held
its strength.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that February and March would bring challenges and
new developments<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and actions to reduce
monetary expansion may start in earnest despite misgivings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was both right and wrong – the actions
were the reverse – flooding the system with funding.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly deduced that April and May would be more of the
same,.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also mentioned trading swings – though not the exact
timing which was late March.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Dow<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Again I noted that 2020 is generally a difficult year and
expecting <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>component changes and trading
glitches but still some positives.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that investors would be asking “Where the **** do we
go from here, at the beginning of the year and the index was flat for most of
the first two months,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>though I expected
problems earlier than there were it was late Feb by the time they kicked in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March through to [MAY] would see <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>constant work to ensure that the index does
not become unmanageable with <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>mainly just
lack of direction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not bad 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nasdaq<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Now this contrasts with my Dow forecast. I said “there is
still an underlying theme that suggests growth in 2020, however it is also a
time when there are huge global pressures”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly said that January seemed to be a month of heavy
trade and investor confidence despite a challenging background <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">February and March I thought would see more trade, though I
expected <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>glitches rather than viruses (
wrong sort of virus!)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and I thought
that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>uncertainty would increase and
there would be huge external pressure! Although the signs are not all bad, I
thought that it would result in some significant selling!! Nailed it!!!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Even better I said April is a key turning point in
sentiment. And “ Any movements in value will be huge and trade will continue to
be high volume and erratic”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Biggest market moves of a decade and I called them. Also
note the difference between the Dow forecast and Nasdaq- not easy to get that
right- so many people talk about the market/markets as if they always move in
tandem not just usually!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">95%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Canada<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that Canada seems mostly to be one step away from
all the major action. I said that there would be some pressure on the people
but if anything this just makes the stability more noticeable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that nothing in January and February looked
unmanageable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then said that March to July would see a permanent long
term change in the country’s economic prospects which of course correlates with
initiatives to help overcome the Covid crisis. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Overall Canada has not been the best at dealing with the
crisis but its has been far from one of the worst<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mexico<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that January and February 2020 would be a critical
time for the country and a combination of recession and record violence made
the period very difficult. However I thought that the impact would be from
outside and not affect the people whereas it quite clearly did, although of
course it cannot be denied that external events were about to take over.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March onwards would see changes from outside
trickle down, with major international funds flows highlighted and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the people more restless, with a shift in
focus to the international arena for them which is quite frankly difficult to
argue with !!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mexican Peso<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that 2020 would be another kettle of fish altogether.
I thought there were<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>some positive
indicators ( the currency strengthened slight at first)but that there were also
shocks with possibility of significant weakness. The currency fell in late Feb
to mid March significantly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March onwards would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>see the themes continuing with a mixed
picture which sums up April and May fluctuations very well. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80% - could be more but not enough detail<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Brazil<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected January and February to be moderately good for
the government. But I am not convinced that was the case, there certainly seems
to have been opposition to some of his policies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I saw March onwards as being focused on the people in
general with pressure on the leadership, which we can’t argue with. I also thought
that there would be people who are not prepared to accept the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>situation<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>and prepared to stick their heads above the parapet and say so quite
vehemently<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and sure enough two health
ministers resigned in disgust at Bolsanaro’s attitude.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I thought that there were clear signs of progress
being made and I don’t think we can conclude that. Brazil forecast fails again.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Real<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Once again I forecast that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the whole of 2020 would be rather volatile.
But that January and February<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>are not particularly
so, however, especially when compared with elsewhere. I thought that it would
be a good time for the currency though not especially noteworthy. It wasn’t
great – the currency did fall but not significantly.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then forecast that March to July would see<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>volatility reach a peak. I said it was s
difficult to detect a discernible trend at this time as there is so much
happening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But that there might be a one
off devaluation is proposed. Obviously there was no devaluation but there was
an equivalent fall – whereas many other currencies fell in March only to
recover partly – the Real has continued to plummet as the government messes up
the health crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Argentina<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that while in January and February 2020 Argentina did
not seem to be at the eye of the [international] storm, it would see the financial
conditions that characterised 2019 continue with<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>detailed adjustments and the result may be
hardship and possibly pushback from the people. Obviously what happened was
that country did not yet have a Covid problem but the financial situation from
2019 did continue and the country came to the brink of default.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I definitely made an error in saying that in March to June would
see less restriction, but was probably correct that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the people were aligned with the government over
the virus <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So far though there is little positive economic news but we
aren’t at the end of the period yet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Argentine Peso<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted that January and February would see currency focus<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>elsewhere. However I expected big movements
in the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>currency but there were none –
though of course there were big movements in the governments financial plans
these were not reflected in the exchange rate. Perhaps after such big falls in
the previous years the situation locally was stabilising.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then thought that the position would be accentuated in
March onwards, and although it was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>generally a difficult time, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I saw it as been a generally highly positive
for the currency. This is of course both very wrong<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>vs the dollar as the currency has continued
to fall but also interesting because compared to other emerging currencies (
e.g. the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>it has been a much more stable option. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">45% used to do much better on my Argentine forecasts<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Venezuela<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted that 2020 would be the beginning of 12 months of
huge change in the. I though that January and February would see the beginning
of this. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March onwards would be less intense than the
first two months and again now without some disturbing upheaval and that
financial flows would be better.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">But April 17<span style="font-size: small;"><sup>th</sup>
“Venezuela suffers its worst crisis since Maduro took office. The U.S. has a
price on Maduro’s head, a fleet of warships patrols the waters around the
country, the coronavirus pandemic rages, gasoline shortages threaten food supplies,
and a lack of liquidity makes it nearly impossible to resolve the crisis.
Venezuela is caught in the middle of an international power play by the United
States, Russia, and China ( wikipedia) and in early May there was an alleged
incursion to overthow the government”. </span></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The added complication of coronavirus and the low oil price
has added to the problems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The details I forecast were therefore not realised though
the overall picture I drew was much closer to reality.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Bolivar<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Once again I said it is all happening in 2020!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that January and February 2020 would see a great
swing in the position, the last stage of a 12 year cycle. Whereas actually the
currency was relatively stable vs the last few years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I suppose in a way that does tally with the forecast.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I then said<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>March
onwards continued the theme with the possibility of huge swings in value <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>though I was not clear which direction this
would take. The currency has fallen again due to the oil situation which has
reversed the benefits of late 2019 early 2020. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">40%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Saudi Arabia<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Moving back to the Middle east and some of the countries
that are on a lter virus trajectory<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that January and February would see big pressure
on the leadership and challenges to the country’s foundations. That was an
interesting forecast as Saudi was forced to close its shrines in late February.
I thought that despite any strong arming the people would see positives and for
the most part as elsewhere people are accepting of restrictions. Of course the
actions of Saudi also contributed to the oil price falls.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to June would see the people in the
mood to protest but that has not been the case – although economic difficulties
are enough to create it. I also said that much could be achieved if the
energies are harnessed in the best way and recently there have been efforts to
improve human rights.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Israel<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>country<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in the limelight this
year. I thought that January and February would still see pressures on the
leadership and a continued sense of deception or confusion for the people
.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And sure enough the investigations
into Netenyahu continued<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also thought that things would be shaken up – and there
were decisive actions re the settlements <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected the situations to<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>escalate<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in March to July. On the
one hand I forsaw large power issues- confirmed by the elections and by the
early lockdown decision taken- all of which did benefit Netanyahu who is once
more leading the government. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Russia<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that January and February 2020 would be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the start of a year which is full of
excitement and drama in the country. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that the leadership would feel under threat and
challenged – but the actuality was slightly different as the government all
resigned in mid January in response to Putin’s plans to change future
successors powers. It was certainly rather dramatic!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to June would see <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>better support for the leadership but responses
might <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>get totally out of hand. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is consistent with the arrival of
coronavirus in the country and the associated measures.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also mentioned that there was likely to be further radical
changes in prices ( oil being the main factor) and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>there may also be some feeling of helplessness
as recessionary conditions may bite in some areas all of which is true<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Rouble<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although I was right that 2020 would be a key year for the
currency, I really didn’t get the direction at all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was uncertain about January and February <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>selecting gains as more likely – actually the
currency briefly strengthened insignificantly before falling back below its
December level<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In March to June I correctly forecast big international debt
and banking movements but I said this would favour the Rouble which in reality
fell significantly in March and has not yet recovered,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">25% ugh<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Turkey<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought January and February would be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a very intense time when a lot can happen;though
I thought this likely to relate mainly to economic matters . The economy was
important as at that point ( before the virus) there were signs that the
recession was over. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I also said the
other possibilities can’t be ignored and issues relating to fighting re Syria
were in focus at this time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then predicted that March to June would see a change of
pace and an uncertain time and one where the leadership may once more feel the
challenge of being pushed to the brink. This fully correlates with the arrival
of the coronavirus<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>which looks like it
will destroy that economic upturn completely<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lira<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Again my ( by now) generic statement that 2020 is a
particularly key year for the currency. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that January and February would see pressures from
the outside world causing <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>major falls in
the currency- actually although the currency did fall it was not a large one
merely a continuation of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the trend
from mid 2019.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was however right about March onwards. I said that there
seemed to be a vast amount of funds moving now- enough to undermine whole
markets and economies. I thought that economic shocks would lead to a
continuation of January and February trends, but that there coudl be a big
turning point in these 4 months. This was on the money will a big fall in March
though to May but a turning point from early May.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">90%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">South africa<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly ( though not terribly surprisingly) said that
January and February 2020 see challenges to both the financial position and the
leadership ( related to financial position and long term fundamentals) and sure
enough the government was being criticized both for not being decisive and for
any decisions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that March to June would continues the theme, but now
it is much more dramatic. Of course the added complication of the virus makes
thins even more difficult there.. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I did also say the indicators suggest that this is good for
the people in general and in some ways it may have been with more money
available and lockdowns probably helping reduce violent crime ( by 60-80%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-29729059779153763922020-05-22T07:41:00.000-07:002020-05-22T07:41:33.229-07:00Review July to December 2019<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2019 Review July – Dec</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyHeuN8iUqiEDUeLX7FUlvfB2b21ECq6AqOrZl-LyuRZjyPAR6oRH6IZ_nIkpbqpwXCRzaqM4ugMUU0GT6mzUlM8noLk9gKawqyfp_2aH6gZF9xLucZd486xSG6fdbFDoEe7qbsp8hlNM/s1600/P1000104.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1067" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyHeuN8iUqiEDUeLX7FUlvfB2b21ECq6AqOrZl-LyuRZjyPAR6oRH6IZ_nIkpbqpwXCRzaqM4ugMUU0GT6mzUlM8noLk9gKawqyfp_2aH6gZF9xLucZd486xSG6fdbFDoEe7qbsp8hlNM/s320/P1000104.JPG" width="213" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Finally back with a lot to catch up on. It has not been an
easy 12 months for me- not unexpectedly of course – I do look at my own chart –
and this has meant that I have lacked first the time and latterly the energy to
even review my old forecasts leave alone write new content. Hopefully I will
have more of both going forward.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">First lets deal with the less interesting matter of the
review of the second half of 2019. Not some of my best forecasts, I was definitely getting restless by this point in the project</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<strong>UK<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There was certainly transformation in summer 2019 as Boris
Johnson took over as Prime Minister and the Brexit no deal became more likely.
Things were relatively stable mainly due to the time of year and although there
were some negative economic statistics it was relatively stable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The country certainly revisited the debates of
January/February in September and October with Brexit and parliament peroging
in the news. And <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>announcements re the
Royal family turned out to be Prince Andrew’s connection to ( the by then dead)
Epstein<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">November was indeed moderate as everyone waited for the
election. And sure enough the December election resurrected the Brexit issues
and related instability.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not perfect but on right lines and some good calls 75% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">UK STERLING<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">July and August were calm as expected – though a low was
reached there was some change of sentiment.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However there was less change than I expected in the
currency in September to November – and there was even some ground gained value
wise. There was no ctual change in the Governor but the new one was announced.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">December was certainly a culmination of events, and did mark
a turning point again and of course the election led to more trade.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Again not bad but not good enough for an A 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">FTSE<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
July through to October <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was indeed more of the same with the index not
really showing any real direction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected more buying in the last 2 months – this was the
case though not as much as I expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Another reasonable effort 80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Euro<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I did not forecast much action for July and August and
although there was some activity it was not significant in the overall trend.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Policy activity was forecast for September to November and
sure enough the ECB restarted net purchases under the Governing Council’s asset
purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And in December, I correctly foresaw a sense of optimism
about the currency.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not bad at all 85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Germany<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The prediction of protests ( limited) turned out to be at
election level with the central parties losing ground in September state ones
and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>October and November<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>did see this unsettled phase continuing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that December would be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>critical for economic and political future
development and the farmers protests coupled with the weakest GDP figure since
2012 confirmed this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Okish, maybe lacked substance 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">France<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I didn’t predict too much change fro France at this time-
assuming that thinsg would be less testing and to some extent this was true
with moderate economic stats..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The country ended the year with a small growth in GDP .<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ok, but nothing special 70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Italy<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although I predicted heated debate in July to September I
did not specifically see the government crisis- however the overall feel to the
period was correct.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected the next months to be about the people’s view and
indeed the “Sardines“ movement took hold protesting against the far right and
the momentum of this had really taken off by December confirming my predictions
overall.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Quiet good 85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Spain<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After failing to get a majority the government did improve
its standing from<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>July to September <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and the economic situation was moderately ok
that quarter. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I saw October and November as a waiting period – and this
proved true as another set of elections were scheduled and held in November<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However the situation in December was more moderate than I
anticipated with no particular critical point although there are worries about
the coming years and the population/debt trends.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Okish again 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Greece<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I stated that June to August was the beginning of radical
change when the leadership is likely to be overturned and the country become
more independent.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
There was an election in early July which did indeed lead to
a change of government<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although there was no obvious change in the relations with
Europe and the Euro – part of the new governments plan is for more economic
independence. I also saw the country harking back to the past and interestingly
the government wishes to reject the PR method of voting in a return to pre
1950s.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I saw November as
milder and although debt was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>still an
important consideration. it would be as confrontational as the last few months
have been and this was more or less true.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I was too negative in my prediction for December <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>even though I was right that there was some
hope that change will bring better times .<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Saved by the change of government but otherwise mediocre 65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I<strong>reland<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Although I got some of the themes right for the political
situation I assumed the issues were internal when in fact they were Brexit
related..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Interestingly this did tie with my prediction that September
to November would see the people in a feisty mood but not opposed to the
leadership.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was correct that December would be exciting as it sees
changes on a wider scale that will impact the country over the next decade as
the UK election meant Brexit border complications would become a reality.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Another 70% then<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p>Switzerland<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I predicted that October would see another shift- affecting <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Switzerland’s place within the global economy.
That may be so in the long run but the short run the shift was in the split of
parties in the election – although<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>there
was no change in the government green parties gained. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said December 2019 is for the most part a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>positive month. Although there are some
obstacles the overall theme is one of positive evolution. It is Switzerland
after all, dramas are not too big!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Moderate 65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Iceland<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
My<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>predictions for
Iceland were a big vague and don’t seem to really tally with anything I know (
although there may be local policy decisions that I don’t know about). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am unimpressed with this 20%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">USA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
July and August were ok – but the financial situation (
markets aside) wasn’t as positive as before. Divisions continued within the
population. There were many anti gun rallies – and a number of mass shootings.
Trump was accused of racist remarks about some democratic<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>representative not to mention the beginning
of the impeachment hearings. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My forecast
wasn’t<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>especially specific for this
period<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but reasonably captured the mood.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Whether September saw <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>long term shift in the financial situation of
the country is impossible to judge but ( again market aside) the stats were
starting to cause concern. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I correctly
deduced that interest rates would be affected – there were 3 drops in as many
months, and that the housing market was cooling.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I wrote what is in retrospect a rather cryptic comment
that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“by November, it is noteworthy that
the conditions which have created a continued faith/despair in the leadership
are ending as the mist lifts and reality for good and bad manifests” and of
course this was the end of the impeachment investigation and the beginning of
the proposal to impeach with the first vote in early December. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And I was correct that December would be positive
financially as the stats were significant ly better by then.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A good forecast 85% ( almost merits more but being critical
here)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Us$<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
It was true that the fundamentals were being challenged in
August to It is a mixed period for the Feb leadership<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: #242d43; font-family: EuclidWU; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Trade tensions between the US and China and heightened political turbulence
across the globe continue to rattle financial markets and recession warnings
are strengthening. The fear of a slowing global economy is sparking flight into
long-term treasuries as investors lack confidence in the near-term economic
outlook. US Treasury yields tumbled, with the biggest inversion between the
short and longer yields since March 2007. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: #242d43; font-family: EuclidWU; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI";">As expected t</span>he last two months of 2019 were somewhat quieter. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ok but not really good – 60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Dow<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I correctly forecast that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>June to October 2018 would see a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>let up with enough support to prevent big
falls and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>overall not much direction.
Indeed July to mid October <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>were pretty
much flat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected more focus on the market in November though there
was more buying than I predicted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I think it is also true that December was difficult in terms
of knowing where to invest next though once again I underestimated the
addiction to the market and to Fed actions. It was correct to state that the
focus was on relative components as tech once more dominated old school stocks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ok but not outstanding another 75% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nasdaq<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I was right about June to August – better but uncertain –
rises in June gave way to lack of direction by the end of the period and sure
enough<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the overall index ended August
pretty much where is was in March.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was right about the next few months too – there were gains
right the way through to December<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This was generally a good forecast 90%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am glad of this because I know when<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was looking at these years it was with the
expectation that Saturn/Pluto would signify problems- but I didn’t fall into
the temptation to ignore the actual chart even when my gut was saying the
opposite – being able to overcome your biases is crucial. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong><o:p>Canada</o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
With a small economic expansion in Q3 there was as I
expected not too much to worry about..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted re-election for October based on a relatively
sound economy and although the majority was reduced this proved to be so.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I expected little change in December although I thought
there may be some small change to rates and there wasn’t.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Still all in all pretty good 90% - once again it is the
ability of the model to predict changes of leadership which is consistent.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Australia<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">I thought that
the July to September period could be more difficult for the people. And the
winter in Australia was not positive economiically. “Wages are stagnant. Wealth
is falling. House prices are down. Consumers aren’t spending. Businesses aren’t
investing. Interest rates are at record lows and </span></span><a href="https://theconversation.com/rba-update-governor-lowe-points-to-even-lower-rates-121690"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">may be heading for zero</span></span></a><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">. The federal government and Reserve Bank
seem locked in an arm wrestle over whether fiscal or monetary policy should be
used to generate more stimulus. Unemployment has stopped going down. Overseas,
storm clouds are darkening.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also mentioned that there were signs of explosive themes.
As it turned out this related to the beginnings of the fires that raged until
the end of the year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I also correctly thought that it might cause falls in value
of the currency<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and that the pattern
would continue into October and November.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I am not sure that December could have been called a quiet
month though, particularly in the East due to the fires. Perhaps otherwise it
was the case but even so I feel I should have seen the themes continuing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Good but some weakness 85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>South africa<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Not too bad a forecast for July to September . I said it
would see more economic power to the people and the new government were
certainly trying though the opposition rejected some measures. I also correctly
( but lets face it unsurprisingly) said <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that continued focus on long term issues and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>potential inflation would mean the impact of
that would be mixed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October and November continued to see a mixed situation –
indeed there was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a mixture of calls for
austerity and calls for stimulus.<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> <span lang="EN-US">I also mentioned communications and the government
were playing up the prospects of the national treasury’s economic strategy
paper. Alhough the reality of the situation is the country is constrained by
debts etc. It is true that there was some optimism amongst the people – whether
misplaced or not</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I expected December to be quieter and after poor stats for
Q3 it might have been but I also said “ There is some restraint relating to
longer term structural… freedom,”issues and the country was suffering even
greater power cuts at this time. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not bad but lacks precision 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mexico<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I predicted that July to September would be a period where economic
statistics and availability of resources were fluctuating so no one trend dominates
and this seems to have been the case. The stats for the third quarter were flat
and I correctly deduced that October and November would continue this. However
I thought that the government would still be seen in a good light but that is
harder to judge as although still supported by his voters others were more
disappointed by the lack of progress.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I did say that there was a risk of significant conflict for
the people around late November/early December and there were protests by the
opposition whilst the government celebrated its first anniversary.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I expected the end of the year to be quieter and it was
though it is difficult to judge whether it was more difficult for the
leadership<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Another ok but not stunning forecast 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><strong>Mexican Peso<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I was pretty much right that July to September would be a
period when the currency will probably end up much where it started.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And again I was pretty much right about October and November
being <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>relatively calm months. And
December was indeed a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>quiet month. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I said that near the year end significant increase
in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>money supply could lead to some
weakness and this was not the case as the Peso ended December marginally better
than it started it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Nevertheless pretty good 85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Argentina<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I stated that July to September would not be a period when
much progress is made but that great progress may be made behind the scenes. I
am not sure this was true- what was clear was that the election primaries
showed progress for the opposition but this would not be realised until October.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There was certainly focus on debts as expected but I said
that October and November would be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>an
extraordinarily positive time for the country and for the government. Clearly
for the existing government it was not and for once I failed to see a change in
leadership. Whether it is good or bad for the country is debatable. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">December was indeed more difficult <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with Argentina failing to make debt payments
and the reality of the economic situation for the new government was becoming
apparent.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not great though not atrocious 50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Argentinian Peso</strong> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
July to September certainly saw the expected <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>return to the trends of 2017-8. Though I
spotted that it would be in focus I did not however see the sudden decline in
August. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that October and November and into December, would
not buck the longer trends, but might have a short term boost of some
sorts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was no trend reversal but
things did steady out a bit. I said although we aren’t looking at major rises,
this might be a good time for the currency and I suppose relative to
2016-summer 2019 it was!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was too optimistic about the detail but did have the right
idea about the trend 80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
B<strong>razil<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that though the budget and economic situation was
mixed for July to September , there are many positives to be taken form this
period and indeed the economic forecasts were raised as things appeared to
improve.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was more or less correct that October and November would
see many of the issues resurfacing- although and elements of opposition, I did
not expect it to literally Lula being released. It far more appropriately
described the objections to the Amazon deforestation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However I thought that it would be a good
period for the people and moderately ok for the government and the economic
situation did appear to continue improvements.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I expected December to continue the themes and this was the
case.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Better than I usually do on Brazil but nothing special 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Brazilian Real<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I sais that July to September would be a time of little
direction and small shifts rather than big trends or even significant swings –
this was not really the case for the latter part of the period when the Real
did fall by over 10%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I was closer in October and November saying I
expected are milder months- it was relatively positive though not actually
positive. And indeed December was more in line with the positivity seeing some
small gain I said that it would see the trend dampened <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as traders wait to see what 2020 will bring
and that seems to have been the case.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not my best but at least better than chance 60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">V<strong>enezuela<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I was correct in predicting that July to September is once
again dominated by the opposing forces with little headway and that those
demanding change would be the focus of attention with other nations as the US
increased sanctions in August.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly predicted that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>October and November would see the issues relating to the leadership
continue saying “ It is almost impossible to have a stable parliament now”
Although I also said he people would be somewhat more content – I think perhaps
that should have been more resigned to the situation although some reports
suggest things were better than the year before.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Obviously we can’t say at this stage whether the year end
marks a 25 year turning point – we need some years to assess this but it does
seem as if by the end of 2019 the picture was becoming stronger and perhaps so
was one group.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></o:p> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Quite pleased again with Venezuela forecast 85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Boliva</strong>r<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I stated that July to September would see another key point
when the fundamentals are re-evaluated. In fact the change was a switch more
and more to dollar denomination in businesses – and far less pressure from the
government to prevent this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that October and November could therefore <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>herald a new financial environment and the
feeling is that this was the case, things were starting to stabilise because
there was less dependence on the local currency.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I saw December as being<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>the final stage of this part of the story of the currency’s fortunes and
indeed only one of the Bolivar sobrero notes from 2018 was accepted by then. It
is certainly the end of the era.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Much better 90%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Japan<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I forecast that the opportunities in earlier months
would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>continue in July to October, and
there was some uplift in economic expectations around August. The Japanese
government also pledged $1b to cyborg technology that month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I thought the period could be destabilising for the
people and this was evidenced by the increase in consumption tax decided in
August and effective October and the pardoning of some 500000 petty criminals
by the new Emperor. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
As expected November did not see much change. But I also
said emotions may run high and there may be major opposition in relation to technological
matters at this time which does not seem to be borne out at least based on what
I can discover.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>December may be quite difficult with opposition
to the leadership who may have taken too big a step in their attempt to change
the structural issues. Japan announced it would <span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>spend nearly $120 billion to stimulate its
slowing economy and this was criticized s adding to the debt. It was true that
by this point the economic situation meant the leadership was at its least
popular since elected.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Moderate 60%</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p>Y<strong>en<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I correctly thought that May to July would be a bit of mixed
bag<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and I said that the latter part of
the period is one of adjustment but high levels of currency trade and the
movement was sharper at the end of July.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly saw that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>August to November would see change in sentiment as the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yen fell vs the dollar.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
December wasn’t as calm as I expected but the currency did
end the month where it started. Though there was sharp movement going into
2020. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nikkei<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
AI thought the end of July would be particularly sensitive-
there was a fall but not as great a movement as I might have anticipated.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought the period August to October would be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>about technology and not value but the index
did rise 10%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I did think that November and December would be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>about value with volatility and re-adjustment
of positions . I said to watch the currency but it was the government stimulus
package that determined the market in the last month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Not great really, probably no better than chance 50%</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></o:p> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> <strong>China<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I thought that although the themes would continue in July
and August, there would be some let up in intensity. There were certainly
continued issues re Hong Kong and re US trade but China insisted on downplaying
matters. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted September and October would see more shocks <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but that these would be merely eh next stage
of what has already happened. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China
became more active in trying to end the chaos in Hong Kong and in October the
US hit China with bigger tariffs and the country’s economic situation was at a
decades low. I thought however that the Chinese leadership would still be
strong and positive throughout this period and this was so as it retaliated
with threats and counter measures.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that November and December, would see rapid
changes economically and there was a sudden uplift in many indicators. It is
difficult to assess the mood of the people though vs my expectation as this
information is not available.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought there was likely to be big financial announcements
at the end of the year<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but the real announcement
was not financial December 31<span style="font-size: small;"><sup>st</sup> virus one.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A just above Average 55%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Renminbi<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I thought that July to September would see a <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>more moderate situation but with<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>severe instability, adjustment and rate
changes and that the negatives would win out. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There was in fact more activity than I expected with a fall
in value early August which was only partially recouped in September.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I expected trading to reach a high in October November and
certainly the London market Rem trading did. Although it seems like a generic
statement “More news and rate changes, and a string of events and decisions in
China and overseas impact on the level of the currency” certainly summed up
this period <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">December saw more of a month of adjustment, with the policy changes
I expected causing some slight value recovery.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However my reference to interest rate changes was not borne
out.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Maybe 70% but only just<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Shanghai Comp<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I expected July through to September to see more inertia and
more fear with some positive economic news to lift spirits briefly. The index
responded accordingly falling into Mid August and recovering slightly by
September<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October and November, reflected the predicted <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>worry <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with a downward trend. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
But although December did end the year on a very worried
note – that wasn’t reflected in the market until mid January. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The emphasis on technology over other stocks was correct
globally though.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Okish but December incorrect 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">HK$<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rate changes were
expected to be very likely May to July and happened at the end of the period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought August to October would see a slight lull in the
trends and there was little movement although there was another small rate
change.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
And November and December did see a definite change in the
tone of the currency environment as well as another rate change</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></o:p> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Difficult to score this one as not much really happens but
not bad re rates 80%</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></o:p> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Hang Seng<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
July to September <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>did
see shocks especially<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>early August but I
expected <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>some protection in the form of
a stabilising influence and this seems to have been the case for the rest of
the period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I don’t predict Hong Kong as a country so I am pleased that
the themes showed up in the market chart.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I said “The final quarter of 2019 is key, although there will be
difficulties for some investors, and indeed for the index proprietors here
seems to be enough to prevent either melt up or melt down even in the face of
some “interesting conditions”” Not bad either as a description of the HK
climate at that time or the index value.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">95%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> I</o:p>ndonesia<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
My election comments are not relevant as it was held in May.
There is evidence that there is stronger opposition amongst the people than in
the first term and there was a very low key ceremony to confirm the new term in
October. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that December would be more positive and that relative
to many countries, Indonesia looked comfortable and this is certainly the case
with sustained moderate growth but perhaps not enough gars roots change <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Not so great 50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Rupiah<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I didn’t predict much change in the trend for July to September
but I did expect some volatility. In reality this was no more or less than
preceding months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I though October and November would be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>rather quieter, and more positive. While this
was true I<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>still feel<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I didn’t fully capture the mood.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly thought December would sees this continue.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I was right about the interest rate <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>adjustments <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>through the period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not particularly impressive 60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">South Korea<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Matters continued but as expected more moderated in July to
September. e.g trade war with Japan. The economic picture had deteriorated
somewhat. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>October and November did
see the situation and negotiations continue and may have been better as I
suggested given the slight improvement in Q4 growth. The resignation of the
Justice Minister confirms the expected mood among the people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">December as expected was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>quieter month with future economic plans the
focus as predicted and more tolerance due to the slight stats improvement.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Meh 65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> <strong>North Korea<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I thought that July to September would be more moderate with
a lull in the mood as other economic and power matters take precedence in the
eyes of the world. This was both true and false- NK certainly wasn’t the focus
although it did undertake a series of missile tests and even so did agree to
restart talks with US.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October and November did see a return to the earlier
picture. Talks with the US stalled<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and
as well as continuing the tests above new missiles were tested too. KJU
racheted up rhetoric with US and Japan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that December would remain unstable with <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>radical and contrary behaviour now and KJU
announced that there would be no de-nuclearization after all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Fairly good 85%, maybe even higher<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>India<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I predicted July to September would see a return to some of
the undermining mood of the pre -election years and indeed the economic
indicators were very poor and causing concern.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am not sure that
there were more outbreaks of aggression than usual but Modi caused dissent by
revoking Kashmir’s status leading to a lockdown<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that October and November may be more obviously
unstable with upsets to the normal routine. On top of the Kashmir situation <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maharashtra" title=""><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Maharashtra</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
had<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> a political crisis.</span><span lang="EN"> </span>It did sort itself out by the end of the period as predicted
but still represents a concerning underlying theme. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">December was probably less eventful that the early parts of
the year. But with the loss of control of a 5<span style="font-size: small;"><sup>th</sup> state there was
definitely<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>undermining of the leadership
. People also protested about the new citizenship laws.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I also said despite this though the year may end on a
highly positive note. Highly positive is too strong but the December indicators
were better than expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty good 85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Rupee<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I said that July to September would <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>see the challenges<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>go away but would be more moderated time with
less volatility and no big trend movements. In fact early August did see a one
off shift in value and there was slightly more volatility than I thought.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that October and November <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>would see <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>continued optimism despite
value/technology/tax shocks and might even still be a positive time, but I was
wary. In reality there was volatility but no trend these two months. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
And although December started <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>positive<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>it did not end so. Admittedly I hedged my bets a bit but I was still off
on this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not very good 40%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Sensex<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I thought the early part of July to November would be the
most positive sentiments- but that later on in there was more discrimination in
what they were buying. Really<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it seemed
to be almost the reverse- though I did not predict big movements and there
weren’t any<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">November was flat as predicted . But I predicted December
would be more active with possible falls. In fact it was just more of November.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A mixed bag 50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pakistan<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
The Kashmir situation had a knock on effect on Pakistan and
confirms my prediction for July to August.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was on the right track re August to November expecting a mood
of adjustment rather than aggression and this proved the cases. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that December would be more of the same except an <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>increase in the difficulties for the
leadership in implementing matters. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
this is true – the country struggles with its debts and special interests.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ok 70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Russia<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I thought that June To August is somewhat easier on the
leadership than the previous 3 months- and although there were some protests
there was a lull at policy level – the financial issues were clearer – with GDP
growth noticeably slowing. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t see
any confirmation of any international matter sof significance for the period
though.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I can’t really say anything about September to November – it
seems to have been the opposite of what I predicted other than the fact that
the leadership stayed strong and there were communication issues as Russia took
steps to control its internet access and there were rate changes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought December would be rather less significant for the
country on the global stage, but I expected matters <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>related to rates and oil prices at the year
end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was another rate cut and
significant discussions regarding oil output as well as the Saudi Aramco share
focussing attention on it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not my best 50%- But the difference between forecast and
actual in the one quarter just made me realise even the normal forecasts that
don’t seem so great are not that bad!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p><strong>Rouble<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
June to August was a time of volatility as expected but with
no real overall direction<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was unable to predict a direction for September to
November . I referred to inflation but what was really happening was the series
of rate changes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was not much
change in overall value- which suggests without those changes we could have
seen rises in value<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I did expect the currency to be more attractive in
December<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and it was. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p>Okish what I did predict but didn’t commit to it all 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">T<strong>urkey<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I had thought incorrectly that July to September, would be
the run up to the election which obviously was no longer the case. But I did
point out that it was a time when the government might be vulnerable although
it was actually the end of June when the re-run of local elections showed a
decline in the government’s fortunes this did have ongoing ramifications.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
And <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I did say that
there may even the potential for some positive surprises and the economic stats
were better than expected ( though it must be said that they had been very bad
so it is relative)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that October and November on balance would see
more positives than negatives now and the leadership has a brief reprieve until
2020 and indeed there was some uplift in economic expectations and fall in
inflation reported<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was definitely right that December would be a quieter
month, but I said that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>longer term
forces working to change the status quo within the country and there was
evidence of this as old allies of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Erdogan formed a new party.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">70% - very good for some parts but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>election situation meant some was irrelevant<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lira<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I thought that July to September would be mostly a
continuation of the themes of the first half of the year but with negative bias
rather than the positive May June ones . But I did think that some expansive
sentiment might offset slightly but not <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>alter the trend. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In reality there was a downturn in value in
early August but other than that the period was mixed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I thought October and
November would be no better, and that it was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>probably a particularly bad time for the
currency. It wasn’t as bad as all that though there was slight fall in October.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
An I thought December would see a continuation of the themes
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with some investor paralysis and
certainly the currency saw a further slight fall.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80% Ok re direction but not magnitude<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p>Saudi<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
July to September was as predicted a more moderate time
though there is no doubt the leadership continued to exercise their power with
force throughout as expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that October and November, would be l about radical
changes and disruption to the foundations and some restrictions were lifted in
October and the Aramco offer process started in November. But as predicted it
was not all straight-forward or as the BBC described it reform and repression
go hand in hand.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
December obviously had the Aramco offering itself accounting
for the announcements prediction but also I thought there may be something <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>involvement in hacking or other technology or
communication problems and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Twitter said it had suspended thousands of
accounts linked to a manipulation effort stemming from Saudi Arabia, in the
latest crackdown on </span></span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/15/disinformation-the-online-threat-to-protest-in-the-middle-east"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">state-sponsored
propaganda</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> efforts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty good 90%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p>Iran<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I expected June to September to see the people really
unsettled, but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>also sees another phase
where the government consolidates the country’s power. I said once again this
may relate to other nations-and a crisis developed in the Persian Gulf between
the US, Saudi and Iran over tankers etc. I am not going to attempt to determine
what was true merely that the situation confirmed predictions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I thought October and
November would see a continuance of the unsettled mood within the country which
was the case, I also said there would be clearer opposition to some of the
leadership policies and in November there were significant protests after fuel
price rises. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I also said that December is the beginning of the final
period characterised by sudden outbursts of communications – Iran announced its
crackdown had killed some protestors. But this was only the beginning as 2020
will show. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But the latter part of the month was quieter nationally and
internationally as expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">80%</span></strong></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Israel<o:p></o:p></span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I was correct that June to august, while continuing the
tricky and not especially pleasant phase wasn’t particularly eventful
either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I thought that September
to November would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>pick up the pace. I
thought there may be a risk of backlash causing the leadership to have to make
adjustments. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact it was more than
this with Netanyahu failing to form a government still. There were also clashes
in Gaza.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
As predicted December was quieter, but with a further
challenge to the leadership as more elections will have to be held although
control within the main party was restored<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p>85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-48288121359585287442019-06-04T11:06:00.002-07:002019-06-04T11:07:11.671-07:00Review January -June 2019<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgID_y0B5cS1bsRC4sg7y4oiZwHtiLKB5stOyt4EpGFJOJR0A50Bhuz9W1JlX2vslt5bSya3YYVCHxBC00JzkVSFpGUG37Igc6ikaN5KXVQwl-8ca47tCJJXbFURYyU4nKUevyj4cJKUjw/s1600/P1010099.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1067" data-original-width="1600" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgID_y0B5cS1bsRC4sg7y4oiZwHtiLKB5stOyt4EpGFJOJR0A50Bhuz9W1JlX2vslt5bSya3YYVCHxBC00JzkVSFpGUG37Igc6ikaN5KXVQwl-8ca47tCJJXbFURYyU4nKUevyj4cJKUjw/s400/P1010099.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Time for a review
again</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I am struggling
now with this project and glad it finishes in 2020. I shall have to resist
anything that makes me want to look at 2021 and beyond.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Personally these days I prefer to sleep
rather than write.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I seem to be affected
by the constellations more than the countries are at present!<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Yes, I feel , despite Trump being <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>front page news in UK papers this week, that
nothing really concrete has happened yet and that although there are some themes
across the globe there is as yet no obvious trigger for the 2019-2020 picture I
expected. Perhaps things are not what they seem - like in the photo</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Although, that is what I felt when<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was compiling my forecasts back in 2016- -
unlike 2007-8+ there seemed to be no obvious focal point. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have even been to a couple of seminars in
2017 and 2018 in the hope that someone would say something that would cause it
all to fit together in my mind. But that hasn’t really happened.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a shame that I cannot foresee the exact
way things will play out, but in some ways it is a relief – I have found it
hard to reconcile the desire to make an impact on the world with the fact that
everything seems to play out as predicted whatever one hopes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Anyway back to the present and those reviews, I won’t be
repeating what I said in the forecasts, if you want to know the details read ‘em:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UK<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I nailed this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
next key period is August to October.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>95%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Sterling<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad although I ‘ve not seen any key policy decisions re
the currency. 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">FTSE<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Ok- There are bubbles offset by poor performers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">EURO<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Mediocre; 55%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Germany<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad, issues with leadership swing it to 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>France<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I have done well with the trends in France since Macron was
elected, although not every little detail is covered.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Spain<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Ok – I didn’t say much, 55%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Italy<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I said even less. Though things do seem to be somewhat more
positive there so 65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Greece<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is a goodie – despite the fact that economically things
have not been as bad as expected – the government trajectory has<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>followed my plan!!!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Ireland<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">OK- much of the uncertainty in Eire is the knock-----on
effect from the Brexit consequences for the NI border. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Switzerland<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Yawn 55% ( If that seems high, think again – imagine if
Switzerland had turned into Greece financially – then I could score it 10%!)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I<strong>celand<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Average – not much happened – difficult to score more than
60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">USA<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I nailed the early part of the year <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“restriction to government activity” for debt
reasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the fact that not much as
happened since.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>90%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Dollar<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad – not the talk of alternative forms of currency (
see Facebook)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- 80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Dow<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Nah- I didn’t really do very well with this. 30%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>NASDAQ<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not really – though perhaps overall not as bad as for DOW,
50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Mexico<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad. Trade issues and border issues continue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Mexican Peso<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad either – pretty much got direction right 80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Venezuela<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Pretty much nailed it ( although it is just more of the
same) but many might have expected a new leader by now and I noted both support
and challenge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Bolivar<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Since the currency is so devalued and since the country is
toying with crypto and as the political matters dominate the news– it is
difficult to tell whether this was correct or not. We will see. 50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Brazil<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not so good. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I still suck
at forecasting Brazil). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I didn’t really
get the leadership change in 2018 so early 2019 does not really describe situation.
But economically it is much closer. 60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Real<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I hedged my bets on this one but was more or less right
overall especially regarding inflation impact. 70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Argentina<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not sure about this. Things remain financially problematic<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but not as dramatic as last year. We will
see. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe 50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Peso<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Pretty good. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Noted
the change in rate of depreciation. Again we will see. 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Canada<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Australia<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Nailed the lack of change in the government and the poor but
not catastrophic economic position 90%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>S Africa<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad at all, given the political situation from 2017 on .
This is another one that requires more time. 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><o:p><strong>China</strong></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad. The US trade “war” is more or less described. 85%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Renmimbi<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Yes. Not perfect but pretty good. 80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Shanghai Comp<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Yes for Jan/Feb. Correct on trend for Mar-June but missed
some volatility. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>HK$<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Rubbish. 30%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Hang Seng<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">More or less- good for first quarter- moderate for 2<span style="font-size: small;"><sup>nd</sup>.
80%<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Japan<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">OK. Didn’t say enough really. 70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Yen<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Overall ok. Balance but didn’t get first couple of months
trend right. 65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Nikkei<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Another weak forecast. Whilst not entirely wrong it can’t be
given more than 40% <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Indonesia<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Neither a poor forecast ( the longer term trends are right
and that there was no leadership change) but failing to nail some of detail.
65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Rupiah<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad, Compared to the bigger trends, the volatility call
is correct 75%<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana";"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana";"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>South Korea<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Economically it has been a difficult period making it difficult
for the leadership. As expected there were budgetary changes ( to boost
spending) . Not bad 80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>North Korea<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Mixed signals in early months. Tick. Aggressive rhetoric in
second quarter. Tick. No outright aggression yet though. 90%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>India<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The whole period was election dominated and I called it
pretty much exactly right ( although I didn’t expect such a resounding victory)
90%<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Rupee<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">ok- but not clear cut enough 70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Sensex<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Beginning of year right. Next quarter wrong. 50%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Pakistan<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Continues to be difficult and although there was no sudden
leadership change yet the potential remains. 65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Russia<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Ok- polls support my prediction that the leadership is
having a harder time. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sanctions , problems
with an oil pipeline to Europe etc. But things are not terrible. Another 75%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Rouble<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Although there was the volatility I expected. It was not as
significant in size as I forecast. I failed to find an overall trend and turns
out there wasn’t one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>70%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Turkey<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">OK – No great enlightenment. 60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Lira<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Nah- not quite rubbish but short on accurate detail. 40%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Israel<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Ok. Though it has (outwardly at least) been mostly about the
leadership, 60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Iran<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Not bad. Certainly there have been resource challenges due
to sanctions and latterly there has been an effort to discredit the leadership
from outside. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>80% maybe more.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Saudi <o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Less in the limelight than last year!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Forecast pretty good but nothing concrete
enough for a high score. 75%<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">All in all probably my worst effort so far ( despite getting
some shining results in a few key countries)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-77771011625660154252019-01-11T12:56:00.001-08:002019-01-11T12:56:40.679-08:00November and December 2018 review
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana;"></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Another country, another historical astrological reference: this time an observatory. So much knowledge in the past, lost or demoted - when it is so, so valuable.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And now the review for the last 2 months of 2018. This won’t
be too detailed as for many countries my wording was continues much the same
and actually for many places that was the reality. So this time we’ll just
focus on the highlights. Overall though it was a short period I scored quiet
highly.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p> </o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>UK –</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> I forecast a serious leadership challenge for December.
I rest my case.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<strong>Sterling<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty much nailed Sterling too as it was variable but
relatively range-bound for much of these 2 months and there were issues
relating to the Governor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<strong>FTSE<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Ftse forecast was fairly accurate too. Although December
did have an overall downward shift the main emphasis of the 2 months was flat
but lots of trade.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Euro<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Not sure about my Euro forecast though. Certainly vs dollar
not a lot happened in the period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
C<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Germany<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Not sure how I did with this<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
There is an ongoing trend in Germany of polarisation between
far right and others which<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is
occasionally newsworthy and the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>economic
situation was noted as less upbeat but perhaps not as prominent as I forecast.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>France<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
France on the other hand I nailed with there is still a risk
of objections taking a more militant tone during the early part of this period
at least.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Spain<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Spain was relatively quiet as expected<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but I did note that December was a time of mixed
feelings in the people and more insecurity for the leadership and Catalan
issues were newsworthy again<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p>A-</o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Italy<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Again pretty much spot on with the deficit issues vs
Brussels causing continued issues but no disasters as yet.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Greece<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
The situation in Greece was better than I expected ,
however<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>survey in December sums up the reality:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #4f4f51; font-family: kasaBbatosb; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Although Greece exited the harsh
bailout programs after eight years this August, 63 percent of respondents
expect the country to remain under strict surveillance for many years, and two
in 10 Greeks said they believe that a fourth bailout program will be signed
soon</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Watch this space.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">C<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Ireland<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
The main focus news wise was not on the Republic so much as
the border and impact of Brexit. Overall the Ireland prediction was reasonable.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Switzerland<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I did forecast some change in Swiss economic situation
although I thought inflation when it was more the slowing economy. Nevertheless
for a country where nothing usually happens this was a win on my part.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Iceland<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Like Switzerland there is evidence of economic challenge
although whether this confirms the forecast is debateable.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>USA<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I won’t analyse my forecast in
this case I will just quote from it<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; tab-stops: 120.85pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">“It seems the people are drawn into
the ongoing financial restriction….s and once more there is a sense of
underlying disruption, which given the conditions could also quite possibly be
financial in nature……the leadership appears set to end the year under the same
sense of insubstantiality and ineffectiveness that has characterised much of
the two years. There’s no challenge to that leadership though really- and that
in itself suggests all is not well financially”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Yep. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; tab-stops: 120.85pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Us$<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I was unhappy about the prospects for the dollar at this
time. And certainly investors were unsurprisingly better off holding Yen.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Dow<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I kind of got this right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>With “November and December have more drama, with some shocks and
surprises. There are still questions regarding fundamental values but there
looks like a upward move before the year end.” Although maybe I should have
made more of the downward impact of the shocks before the year end uplift.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Nasdaq<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Overall I got this<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>right though again I didn’t emphasis the downside enough. I got the restrictions
in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>November/December and the trading
volumes and of course the overall bubble <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and indeed the short term picture dominating
of the longer term one though <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Mexico<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Not so good with a statement that cross border issues would
abate, they didn’t although they became an internal US issue so in one way they
did<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">C<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Mexican peso<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
More or less yes. Certainly active in mid period .<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Venezuela<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Pretty much right. Not much to say. Oil did rise for a while<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Bolivar<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Difficult to say whether I was right about this yet but the
huge hyperinflation was only a fraction of that expected by IMF <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A-<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Brazil<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
The country did get extra exposure due to the reputation of
its new leader. Another watch this space<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A-<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Real<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Yes, pretty much – a decline but not without some
boundaries.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B+</span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Argentina<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
The final 2 months were more mixed. We shall see.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></o:p> </div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<strong>Peso<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Right on<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
A<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Canada<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Interestingly Canada’s most significant event of the period
seems to have been the Huawei arrest. Economically the country was ok. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I thought a lot may be swept under the carpet. It remains to
be seen<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Australia<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Sort of right. The economy slowed ( in areas I highlighted)
but situation still ok<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">C+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>South africa<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I can’t really assess this forecast – there is so
little<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>information about progress
there but it seems as if the government is making some.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">C. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong><o:p> </o:p>Japan<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yes – especially the continuation of Abe’s government <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
A<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong> </strong></span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>
Yen<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yes – <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
A-<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nikkei<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
More or less yes, notably the December bounce back<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B+</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<strong>China<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yes – mainly due to US issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
A<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong> </strong></span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>
Renminbi<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Generally improved as expected and notably situation shifted
in december<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Shanghai Comp<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
More or less. Certainly a lot of trade in stocks generally
at this time and trends in Composite ore pronounced. Plus issues related to
specific companies in spotlight.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>HK$<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Rate change December followed Fed<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Hang Seng<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Forecast was “ …and November when there seems to be a major
tension between the direction of value of the individual components” yes big
fluctuations and tension between overall gloom and big IPOs. “December is a
month of more excitement” and yes more big fluctuations followed. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A-<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Indonesia<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Certainly right about current government popularity ( in
advance of 2019 elections) <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Also about challenges ( corruption, religious issues)
including the attest earthquakes and tsunamis which undermine structure.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
A -<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Rupiah<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I said “December is another difficult month to call. There
are still restrictions to manage the currency which will hold the value down,
but there are also forces that suggest it could continue to rise.” Fluctuations
led to an overall flat result<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A surprising A<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>South Korea<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I thought that the period would lack direction and this was
so with some indicators negative and others not so bad. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There were developments in the relations with the North<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
B-<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<strong>North Korea<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As expected North Korea was not much in the news as it was
less<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>probe to drama at this time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>India<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I struggled<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>abit
with<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>my India wording for these 2 month,
but actually ( as I was there at the time) it summed it up nicely. Many of the
issues were between government and RBOI<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>leadership. Fascinating how this shows up.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A-<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>rupee<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
The resolution of issues turned out to be the resignation of
the Govenor<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
The Rupee did rise but interest rates did not<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A-<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<strong>Sensex<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>am quite surprised
I<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>got this right given the activity in
many markets. But between beginning of November and end December the Sensex did
indeed rise though not without fluctuations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
A+<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Pakistan<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
The issues in Pakistan at this time were the blasphemy
protests. But the forecast wasn’t accurate enough<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to score highly. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong> </strong></span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>
Russia<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Russia did indeed continue as earlier in year and yes there
was oil price adjustment<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A boring B+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Rouble<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
There was tension between the improved oild price at the
year end and the impact of US sanctions.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The rouble fell in December but rose as 2019 began.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
D<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Turkey<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Turkey benefitted generally from its role in the events of
October. So the last 2 months were moderately ok.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Lira<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Pretty much right. Better but not much change. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A-<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Israel<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Although my Israel forecast can’t score too highly the
themes were right. Continued aggression was tempered rather by Bibi’s
situation, The US being rather distracted by other events and the changing
dynamic following October’s Saudi<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>escapades.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B+<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Iran<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
There were ongoing economic protests due to the sanctions
etc, although I was right to say there were not direct challenges to the actual
government. Time is required to understand the trends.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Saudi<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I finished my forecast for Saudi with the words “On balance
an unsatisfying end to the year”<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yep!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-10884655056180771312018-11-05T05:26:00.000-08:002018-11-05T05:26:11.810-08:00Review April 2018- October 2018<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Review at 31 October 2018 ( Warning - LONG POST)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The picture this time is of me, accidentally embodying the Zoroastrian god. Don't ever ignore the signs or underestimate the universe</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Clearly some months have elapsed since my last post. Once
again life has been hectic and I apologise. In any case it does give me the
chance to review a larger chunk and to comment on some of the more recent
interesting events, Saudi, Iran, Brazil’s government and Italy’s <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>economic strategy are the ones that spring to
mind.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>UK<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although it is difficult to assess the remark about long
term (30yr) changes in April<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the
inflationary pressure prediction was confirmed due to the oil/energy price
increases. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that June through to August would be a time when
there is opposition to the leadership and that there would be some very
challenging undercurrents. There was certainly opposition to the prime minister
though there was perhaps less impact from the people than I would have
expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My overall forecast was for some progress but being bogged
down in details which well sums up the Brexit situation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty accurate overall<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>£<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">May was as forecast mixed. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>June to August were predicted to be are more
eventful and a difficult one for Sterling investors and sure enough against the
Euro and dollar for example the currency declined throughout this period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I expected that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>September and October <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>would be challenging the value of the
currency, but in fact the currency made some recovery at this time though this
was more a reflection of challenges elsewhere than benefits to Sterling. There
was the expected volatility though.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Forecast Ok but not as good as I would have hoped<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>FTSE<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I forecast increased values in April, which was the
case,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but a less clear period to July
with focus on constituents and little trend,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>again correct <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said in August to October things are more challenging.
While there is no sign of noticeable falls, there will be problems and this has
been the case though my forecast of tech issues has been realised more in terms
of tech valuations that known incidents.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty accurate again.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">E<strong>uro<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I did less well with the Euro, there was less pressure on
its foundations than I expected in the period meaning although the values were
maintained in the summer there was less pressure and as a result more decline
in the early autumn than I expected, though overall we are talking small
movements anyway.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mediocre forecast<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>France<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March and April would see country and
leadership aligned but although Macron’s support remained higher than previous
incumbents<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it was declining f<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">rom the high of 62 percent in May 2017 to
44%.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought the greatest theme over the summer would be the
beginnings of changes that represent the end of a long cycle. Certainly there
were issues In relation to the European budget and it is too early to confirm
whether I am correct that this is part of a longer term issue.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Average – better than chance but too early to tell on the
wider stuff<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Germany<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected March to May to be <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>more mixed but there would be questions where
the country is heading.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I saw <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>real
dissatisfaction, but I attributed this mainly to debt or banking matters and it
seems the issues are more complex. Accoriding to Bloomberg (2 October) <span style="color: black; font-family: BWHaasDingbat;">globalization and changing technology
are threatening to bring deep structural changes to the tradition-bound
country, where not everybody has benefited equally from the upswing, and an
influx of refugees in 2015 flushed nationalist sentiment into the open</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also saw October as not significant although unsettling,
perhaps missing Mrs Merkels longer term decision, although understandable as
there is no actual change yet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ok. Again longer terms stuff is difficult to assess<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Spain<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I saw background positive sentiment in Spain through to June
and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>indeed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>economically things were better and the
Catalan issue receded further for the time being.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a tricky
time for the leadership- and sure enough there was a vote of no confidence in
May.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that the longer term economic outlook might be
questionable though and there were signs that the recent rapid growth might be
peaking.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty good.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Italy<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said in my forecast that April and May would see the
beginning of a new very long term phase ( decades) and the Guardian said in May<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="st1"><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The result: two lost </span></span><em><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><strong>economic</strong></span></em><span class="st1"><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"> decades in which living
standards have stagnated, which is why </span></span><em><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><strong>Italy</strong></span></em><span class="st1"><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"> ... was
prevented from recapitalising its banking system, and the </span></span><em><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><strong>Italian economy</strong></span></em><span class="st1"><span style="color: #545454; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">
stagnated for a decade.</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said that the two months themselves would be quite
difficult, and one of the most confrontational times of the 4 year period. Right
on schedule there was a new political crisis ending with a new government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And of course there were the expected strikes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that although the country would remain edgy,
things would calm down a lot by June and July and this was the case and as a
result I was right that August and September would be better.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that in October and November there would be a real
effort to make economic changes and the chances of success are better. There have
been clashes with the EU and even though things have calmed down a bit Italy is
in danger of going down the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>spend (in
contravention of the rules) and be damned route. So the short term may look betterbut
the medium term and longer term look like they could be one of the 2019-20 problem
triggers<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A good forecast.
Italy rarely disappoints!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Greece<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was right about more protests in April May. Though they
seem to have been more peaceful than I might have expected. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I though that July to September would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>just<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>see <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a continuation of the themes
of the year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Unsurprisingly, I was right that there would be a lot of
concern about long term recessionary conditions but the end of the bailout in
August was otherwise quite uneventful. I still have to wonder what is going on
behind the scenes financially.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that by the end of the 3 months to September there
may be renewed enthusiasm at government level and to some extent that is so. However
let’s see what the next months bring.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Reasonable forecast but not great.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Ireland<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly expected the period to April to be positive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I did say that May to July could see some
dissatisfaction amongst the population <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but this really wasn’t noticeable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that there would be some surprising economic
shifts later in the period and the growth forecasts were recently <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>doubled.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">OK but nothing special. Always difficult to forecast not a
lot happening,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Switzerland<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As usual I forecast little worth mentioning for Switzerland
and it continued to pootle along albeit more moderately in the latter few
months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Average prediction<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Iceland<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Overall I predicted a moderately positive period for Iceland
too with little really to say.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And in fact<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">After a period of robust growth, Iceland's
economy is slowing down according to an economic </span></span><a href="https://www.arionbanki.is/english/markets/research/research-more/2018/04/23/Economic-Outlook-Caution-fragile/"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">outlook</span></span></a><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> for the years 2018” but all is ok.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Average again<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>US<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected April <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>through Juneto be somewhat <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>more harmonious <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but some of the challenges of
September/October 2017 ( typo in original said 2016) to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>return. There were issues relating to the
ongoing investigation and a resurgence of issues re Syria/ME but nothing too great.
There was alos opposition to the separation of immigrant children in late June,
but overall a less difficult time. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; tab-stops: 120.85pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected July to see little
change to this but some evidence of financial discipline. This was when tariffs
on China came into effect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; tab-stops: 120.85pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought August would be a
rather an odd month. I said “while there are no changes to the themes of the
preceding months, there is a sign of a short sharp challenging event. Is this
an internal dispute, or attack, or is the US the initiator?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’d almost be inclined to suggest the latter
as other conditions are more benign. In fact the US re-imposed sanctions on
Iran, removed security clearance from a previous CIA director and two Trump allies
( Cohen and Manafort) were guilty of financial crimes. But the overall climate
in the country did remain calm.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; tab-stops: 120.85pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For October and November I had
a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>sense of underlying disruption. I
though the conditions might be financial in nature – trouble servicing the
debt? In fact they have been mainly violence related not to mention the
hurricane in Florida or the awkward Saudi situation. And tomorrow is the mid-term elections. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; tab-stops: 120.85pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This did
however obscure the fact that the deficit rose 17% to the highest level since
2012 so I was right, I merely got my news priorities wrong!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Moderate- nothing wrong but could have pinpointed things better </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>US$<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that April would see the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>dollar at best as depressed and so it proved
– the period around March and April being a bottom in the index.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I thought that June to August would see more
leadership challenges and even less faith in the core value of the
currency.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact the dollar made some
recovery in this period. However we must remember that this was after a rate
rise in May. Maybe I wasn’t so far off the mark.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For September I said there wasn’t much change <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“ a lot of policy work going on, adjusting
interest rates, trying to reassure investors etc.” and lo and behold we had
another interest rate rise. And as I said “to some extent it seems to be
working” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I expected more difficulties in October yet despite the
deficit there have been no shocks to the dollar index. On the other hand the
markets have shifted and gold risen so there is something happening.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Difficult to assess forecast : maybe better than a first
seems the case.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Dow<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought there would be a switch of mood<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>over the summer. And while I didn’t suggest
selling I thought that it just felt like the market would lose its way a little
over the summer. This was a good assessment, although values continued up there
were increasing doubts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I thought that the period to September could see
some falls and that wasn’t the case. Though it did top out by September.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that October would also see falls though and this
time I was right with a 5% drop over the month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Moderately ok forecast<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Nasdaq<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I forecast a return <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to glitch and switch ( in index components)
territory in March to May. I said “There is<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>quite a challenging situation which might lead to suspension or
restriction of trading briefly. But it doesn’t last long as we see a return to
optimism quickly.” On 25<span style="font-size: small;"><sup>th</sup> April<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The New York Stock Exchange suspended trading in the shares of five
Nasdaq-listed companies including Google-parent Alphabet and Amazon due to a
what it referred to as "a price scale code' issue. Possibly as a result of
a tech upgrade. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I love it when a forecast comes together!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a mixed
bag in June through August. Perhaps because of the time of year, there does not
seem to be any particular direction then. In fact the index did rise a bit but
given previous momentum this was a good call.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I didn’t get October right as although I could see
difficulties with the image of the market I thought that public confidence
would remain high and there would be rises. In retrospect I may have been right
in terms of what is happening- professional investors leaving while public buy
but I can’t deny that I got the overall value trend wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Doing great then fell at last hurdle!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Canada<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Perhaps it was too extreme to state that there might be
divergence between people and leadership – this is Canada after all- but there
was certainly less enthusiasm for the leader. However more noticeable is the
reduced affinity with the US and how that may create divergence within the
country. The trade issues with US are particularly concerning…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The period was definitely a turning point in housing ( and
thus debt etc) and the prices stagnated.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">June and July, although seeing a cooled economy, was better
than expected <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in line with the more
relaxed mood predicted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that September and October would see the people
somewhat unsettled and perhaps feeling deceived in some way. There could be
adjustments to communications and to rates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Financial issues would continue to raise budget questions but not to be
too challenging. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It seems that issues relating to energy/carbon taxes<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>are dominating and causing problems for the
leadership as well as matters relating to banking data. Things are no so rosy,
but neither are they too serious. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ok – but details weren’t specific enough <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Australia<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought March to May likely to be<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a particularly good time for the leadership.
There would <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>still be a significant
amount of optimism and drive. Certainly the economy continued to growth and the
government won by elections etc. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said that- floods may also characterise this period
and in March a state of disaster was declared in Queeenland due to flooding<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>then in May there were also heavy rains in
Tasmania<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Despite the general strength of the government I commented
that “Changes within parties may also alter the emphasis within government.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The timing was a little later than I expected
with the split in August rather than June but the prediction remains valid as
it identified what is quiet an unusual political situation .<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly thought that June to August would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>still see much that looks positive depite
issues relating to extraction ( the mining sector continued to be in a trough) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and the countries identity continuing <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>( racial issues continued to be more of an
issue)as well as the continued support for the government ( generally yes,
despite the change at the top). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that September and October would see the people of
the country take centre stage. In fact there is increasing pessimism about the
end of the long economic<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>growth trend.
The feeling is that it is the disruptions within government that are making the
future direction uncertain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Forecast overall quite good but not as much focus on the
people as I expected.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>South Africa<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought March to May would be a better time in most
respects for both the people and the government because adjustments within the
leadership to improve the foundations of the country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And of course the change in head in February
made this correct.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought June to August would continue the trends. However
I thought that the economic indicators would improve. However GDP declined<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and the unemployment rate has risen
noticeably throughout the year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that September and October would be similar but the
leadership have renewed dynamism to harness change in the economy. To some extent
this is the case as the problems are being discussed but whether this will lead
to anything positive remains a moot point.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Forecast <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>average- a
bit better than change but not much.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Mexico<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The economy in March to May appeared broadly to be ok though
later growth was revised down in line with the confusions that I suggested.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But more significantly I noted the likely impact of US
policies and related restriction of people etc and in April there were refusals
for migrants crossing which by June had become the US separation of families
policy that was ultimately reversed. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said that there might be a brief spell of severe
difficulty for the people, perhaps relating to the drug cartels or other
threats ( no surprises). The whole of the first half of the year saw 1000s
dying but this period was noticeable for the deaths of over 100 politicians in
the run up to the election.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that June to August would see a shift in emphasis
for the people and the new president in July supports that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I thought there may be upsets to industry and
other economic activity and oil and industrial output fell.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected major turning points at the end of September but
this is obviously one of those cases where we need longer to confirm that such
points have occurred.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Good predictions re US border, average re economy<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Peso<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought March to May would be better value wise. As
uncertainty was lifted for a while. This proved true for all but the end of May
( so within bounds of forecast accuracy)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I though that June to August may be one of the better
times with a small upturn in value. But the currency actually fell prior the
election. It did however recover after the election through into August, so
only the exact timing was out.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However as I expected September and October, saw the old
conditions resurfacing, with the currency falling especially in October.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Good but timing could have been more precise.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Brazil<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to May would see the issue of
leadership corruption and weakness return- and in fact there was much talk as
Lula planned to stand for election again and there was much dissatisfaction
with the acting president.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also didn’t see much progress economically even if there was
the odd snippet of positive news. The economy was ambling along after showing
its best performance for a few years but by end of June forecasts had been
revised down again.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that September and October looked tricky again for
the leadership –and Lula was banned from standing in the election.. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I thought that there was no clear indicator of
change and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that likely the president
will continue but perhaps weakened further. But Temer the acting president was
not standing so some change was inevitable and there was a decided shift the
right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I did see <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>evidence of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>economic measures improving <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but this seems probably to have been optimism
about the new leadership rather than anything concrete. We shall see.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Forecast ok, but not great<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Real<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I though March to May Real values were mixed and difficult
to assess. The currency weakened slightly but not significantly over the
period. However there were few of the short term swings I expected. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected June to August to be more extreme with some shocks
and likely a key longer term reversal. There was certainly more volatility
especially in August and with a sharp fall at one point.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But in September and October I thought it likely that
positive expectation will overcome much of the negativity. There was a
significant reversal of the August fall and late October saw the best position
since April although still on the downward trend line as I expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty good prediction.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Venezuela<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">March to May was as expected a critical time. The election
was held but under as many clouds as I expected. As anticipated there were some
dodgy tactics including arrests which led some opponents not to mention vast
amounts of the international community to reject the result. However Maduro was
re-elected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It is not surprising then that I saw the following period as
a continuation and a tug of war between two possible directions of leadership. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I did think there may be some short term good
news economically, although in reality this turned out to be just the new plan
giving a brief hiatus to the continued financial problems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also, unsurprisingly, correctly expected September and
October to be more of the same <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Bolivar<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted that March to May would see the Bolivar downward
trend continuing but that there may be some surprises. And this was true, as
the currency declined Maduro announced plans to create a new one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I saw this becoming concrete in June to august with a
fundamental change to the currency. This happened. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While I said that September and October would show hints of
the future, the picture is still emerging and we will know more by end of year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Another good forecast – few marks for continued devaluations
but lots for the timing of the changes<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Argentina<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected March to May to be relatively positive for the
leadership and economic news and this was the OECD report at May<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">The gradual
reduction of the high fiscal deficit is being accelerated to restore
confidence. Recent structural reforms, such as a tax and capital market
reforms, a new competition law, improvements in administrative procedures and
lower trade barriers in selected sectors are welcome steps to strengthen
inclusive growth. Further reforms to foster the integration into the global
economy, enhance competition and improve access to quality education could
build on this progress.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I suspected there would be difficulties too.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected currency effects in June to August ( and referred
the reader to the Peso forecast), this proved to be totally on the money.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then highlighted<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>September
and October as key turning points<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with
fast changes and so it seems to have been proved.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> Another good one</span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Peso<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I went for significant inflationary tendencies for March to
May and this turned out to be spot on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that June to august would likely be the most fundamental
period of the 4 years for the currency. By the end of August the Peso had
dropped to a record law.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought September and October are similar though somewhat
moderated and there may be interest rate adaptations and debt ( funds flows).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was an understatement as rates rose to
60% to attract investment. This appeared to work in stabilising the Peso as I
anticipated but it remains to be seen what this will do in the longer term.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Excellent forecast. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>China<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected May to July to herald a change of pace and
although growth stats remain strong there was sign of less aggressive growth.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that some economic shocks<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>( possibly external) may manifest perfectly
timing the US tariff announcement. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also expected some misinformation about or deception by
the leadership, and a risk of problems spilling into aggression albeit mild-
“aggression” was the term actually used for China’s activities in the South
China Sea at this time<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My forecast for August and September was to continue the
theme of May to July, with “ the economic issues and perhaps the balance with
the US needing attention”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the tariff
situation escalated.<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> A further
tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods went into effect on September 24,</span><sup><span lang="EN" style="line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war#cite_note-Reuters1-5"><span style="color: blue; font-size: small;">[5]</span></a></span></sup><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> to which China responded with tariffs on
$60 billion of US goods.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October I thought would see a “key turning point” and on the
one hand stats<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>showed an economy weakening
much faster than expected, on the other<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>relations with Japan saw a shift actually described as <span style="color: #33302e; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; line-height: 115%;">a “historic turning point”. Don’t you just love this stuff!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #33302e; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; line-height: 115%;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #33302e; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">An excellent forecast <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Renminbi<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected little action in the value of the currency March
to May and sure enough it was more or less unchanged.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that from June to September we’d be back to more
challenging conditions, which would not be good for the currency. And again
right on target it fell.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It is too early to say whether the last quarter will play
out on target too.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Another good one<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Shanghai Comp<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought April to June could see a risk of a significant
undermining of value. There was certainly a downward trend most noticeably in
June.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">An although the trend did continue I was right that July to
September would be calmer. There was the stabilisation in that period I
predicted..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Again it is too soon to know whether the final months will
turn out as expected but trading volumes have risen as I suggested.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty much a China full house prediction wise this time<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>HK$<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For March and April I predicted a lack of direction and
speculative actions. The currency traded in range.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought May to July would bring real instability and
concern about the peg. Actually the currency continued to trade in range.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I also said the situation would be critical around
August and September but faith would hold things together. And that the<span style="line-height: 115%;"> Hong Kong dollar would be on the
move as pressure mounts on local interest rates</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="background: white; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">On 20<span style="font-size: small;"><sup>th</sup> September the HK dollar hit its
highest level since late February <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">* Traders see spike
rooted in expected Fed, and local rate hikes soon <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">but<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">* HKMA said HKD,
money markets are operating in an orderly manner<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Another well timed forecast overall<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Hang Seng<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that April to June would <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>see the beginning of a new long term phase for
the index and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>initially this would seem
broadly positive,. The index<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>stabilised
and even had some upside until the last half of June.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">July to September<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was
a very mild period though the values fell rather than rose it indeed wasn’t<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>dramatic.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that October to December could see a return to the
frantic pace of late 2017 and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>there is
much more momentum ( down) in October. We’ll see what happens in the next 2
months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Forecast: Good, though not as good as China<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Japan<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Japan had a decline in GDP in the early part of 2018, this
is not due to the issues that dog other countries but to the declining and
ageing population. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So yes there are financial concerns and yes they are interesting
times I have not found specific evidence to support my prediction that May and
June would see the disconnect between the people and leaders continuing though.
Though it has been true that relations with other nations dominated. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">“The growth rate, for the second quarter<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was well ahead of the country’s long-run
trend, and suggests the Japanese economy is still in a phase of sustained
economic expansion despite deepening labour shortages and the threat of a
global trade war.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Again I have not found specific evidence that July to
September sees the people shift to being more dynamic and trying to address the
structural concerns. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I was right that there were <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ongoing budgetary adjustments and attempts to
create a shift in structural issues. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">the Bank of Japan recently downgraded
inflation and economic growth forecasts through fiscal 2020, putting its 2
percent inflation target well out of reach for the foreseeable future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">OK forecast. Another case where we are looking at long term
trends in a short timescale so difficult to assess.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Yen<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As expected March and April were more or less flat value
wise.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although there was a blip in late May as suggested I am not
convinced it merits a confirmation of my prediction . The period May to July was
indeed mainly stable however. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">August to October was indeed similar to March and April but
there was no noticeable increase in value at the end of October. The challenges
for the central bank were real but there was no rate change in October.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Forecast marginally better than chance but not great.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Nikkei<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was right about the positive trend from March to May and
there was volatility. Whilst there were no technical glitches as such there
were issues around cryptos. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However June to august did not see big gains in values.
Rather it was late September early October that showed the bigger gains albeit
short lived. Nevertheless my overall broader prediction for the year, that
there would be continued support for the index value even if there are no trend
gains has proved right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Moderately ok. Good on wider picture, poor on the detail<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Indonesia<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Economically things were reasonably positive in the period <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>March to May , but politically my forecast was
for a shift in the mood ( of inertia). The people are energised and although
this is broadly positive it could give rise to some pressure to change faster. There
is concern that things are drifting. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then I said June to August would continue this
and it would not be all plain sailing with continued failure to manage
dissident factions and issues relating to development.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In actuality this is From “The Conversation” on July 9th<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In Indonesia today, reform has stagnated. …….As well as the hardliners,
today these include enormously wealthy oligarchs, tenacious survivors of former
dictator Suharto’s regime and elements of the armed forces. These disparate
forces that together form Indonesia’s revisionist and populist right have
little in common and often compete with one another. However, they also create
expedient alliances from time to time, motivated by a common desire to roll
back at least some of the democratic system initiated by <i>Reformasi</i>, the
reform era. Together they can sometimes intimidate or outflank progressive
civil-society leaders. Governments, local and national, seem uncertain about
how to respond to these challenges, and vacillate between inaction, opaqueness
or endorsement of reactionary policies. As a result, 20 years on from <i>Reformasi</i>,
the spirit of reform that drove democratisation seems distant.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although I stated that September and October would be much
calmer months, there was clearly a tsunami that has a significant impact.
Economically though things were more positive than expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although I missed some events my overall themes are good<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Rupiah<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that March to May there would be confusions about
direction and the uncertain environment will probably keep values in check. The
currency was basically flat in this period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said that there was a chance of inflationary
conditions which would lead to significant management by the government and
there was<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a noticeable rise in interest
rates.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that july and August are similar in tone. With small
interest rate changes and this proved the case. I struggled to read the
resulting value trend but was sure that there would be one and there was a
noticeable decline in the currency’s value. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly forecast more interest changes for September/October
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but though that the mood may be more
positive. The currency has flattened.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In some ways a good forecast but lacking some important
information on direction. Could have made some nice bets on interest rate changes
though..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>S Korea<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected a more tricky time than all of the previous year
in many respects.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">South Korean exports declined in April for the first time in
18 months I said that March to May could <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the country entering a new phase which might
be unsettled and the leadership may be ( perceived as) weak. I expected this to
continue through the period to October with a focus on budgets and resources..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought there may be issues regarding NK or other
countries by August - October<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">These are recent quotes which confirm the analysis <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Public support for South Korean President Moon
Jae-in has plummeted. Peaking at 83 per cent following his agreement with North
Korean leader Kim Jong Un to end the Korean War, his approval rating has crashed
to 49 per cent — the lowest since he took office. The biggest reason for this
drop is South Korea’s weakest job growth in nearly nine years: <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">and<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">South Korea has announced a fresh set of measures to boost
economic growth and create jobs by offering financial support for smaller
companies and a fuel tax cut to spur consumption. The administration comes
under growing pressure to revitalise a stalled economy and weak jobs market.
South Korea’s export-driven economy is threatened by the worsening trade war
between the Washington and Beijing as well as China’s slowing economic growth.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consumption has been
held back by high household debt.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Forecast – very good
, important to see the change in overall sentiment<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>N Korea<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I expected March to
May to be a period of change. However I thought that might be a worry for other
nations when in fact the attitude of the leadership was much more open to
negotiation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It is difficult to tell whether I was right that the
leadership might be perceived as weak, it is possible that internally that was
so, externally it certainly seemed as if he was more accommodating. And
obviously everyone was asking if it was for real?!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said that there was evidence of big developments,
changes to strengthen the economic position. I did not expect the various
summits ( South Korea, China, and US on June 12th) that occurred but they
presumably have made economic trade easier.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I did say the grandstanding would be likely to continue and
there was a point when he said he would call the whole thing off!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As a result it is true that September and October were more
positive months and N Korea was pretty much out of the news.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty good overall, but missed the crucial co-operation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>India<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to May would see things improve
slightly with a change of mood generally leads to more support for the
leadership, although there are still pockets of objection or protest, which was
demonstrated by this article<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Modi has completed four years in office but there is
widespread disappointment among the Indian people with his performance as their
prime minister. There is a strong perception that Modi spent most of the last
four years either in state election campaigns, on foreign tours, or giving
scores of moral lectures on state-run television, radio, and his own online
app.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The economy grew well in the quarter to June<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but a survey found about seven per cent
decline in the percentage of people expressing satisfaction with the Modi
government over past two years, but that a majority supported. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I forecast that In June to September despite a feeling of
stagnation within policy and economic circles, there would be enough structure
and budget to maintain stability and economically the country did continue to
grow and Modicare was launched. But I also said September would sees some
outbursts though and in New Delhi Sept 5 Thousands of farmers and labourers
protested against what they called the anti-people policies <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pretty good overall. Even<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>some correct details. If anything forecast could have clearly separated
economy more.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Rupee<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected the currency to be undermined somewhat in March
to May but the decline was less than I expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It is difficult to assess the longer term turning point mentioned
at this stage.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said the situation would be more moderate in June to
September, and this time the picture was in line with my expectations but there
was no rise in the value of the currency.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>has seen more
of the volatility I expected but perhaps less of the wider trend.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A mediocre forecast – not much better than chance<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Sensex<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted the trend on the earlier months would<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>reverse in March to May and this was so. There
was volatility as expected but again as expected<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with not too much impact <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I said that June to September would see a trend dragging
the index down. Investors may be a bit disillusioned now and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>might even not respond to the good news. This
was wrong at least for Jly and August. September did see another turning point
however.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">We will have to wait for December to see whether the last 3
months accord with my forecast.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Rubbish really. No point in nailing the turning points if
the direction is wrong!!!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Pakistan<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted a long term shift in power as a result of the
elections though I said it would not be radical. I also said that July to
September<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>indicated that there is some
sort of change as the people, as a whole,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>become more cooperative and prepared to adopt government initiatives.
With the new government ( certainly a change in long term patterns but probably
not radical at least at first) and a corresponding change of mood.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said that there was still the ongoing issue of international
matters to contend with particularly in September. In fact it is the need to
raise financial support which has been the prime international matter <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Protests re changes in blasphemy laws may well prove
November problematic as forecast too<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Moderately good prediction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong> </strong></span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Russia<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I forecast that there is little evidence of focus on
leadership change for the election and assumed there would be only marginal
changes made. And of course this being Russia Putin carried on!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said that global financial/banking matters become
more important and the period coincided with more sanctions. However
economically the country continued to benefit from the oil price.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I forecast June to August as relatively calm and with this
coinciding with the World Cup which went so much better than generally anticipated
I get extra brownie points for this. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said September and October continue this calm, although
there may be some weeks where the events of 2017 are touched on (issues re
Syria/Israel were reactivated as was the Skripal mater albeit an early 2018 one)
. The economic benefits of oil were further harnessed in this period..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Overall – pretty good. On the basis of the good forecast for
Russia and other resource countries I took out an oil contract in 2017. So
pretty pleased all round on this one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Rouble<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that March to May was a periods when anything can
happen and expected large sudden movements in value. There was a rapid fall in
the value of the currency in April. But I forecast an upturn <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After the April event the currency remained relatively unchanged
through to August. I has said June to August is more moderate in tone. There is
too much uncertainty for investors and locals alike to create any great sense
of direction. There is also less volatility than in the previous three months.
I expect the picture to be relatively unchanged for this quiet p<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">e</i>riod. At least that was right!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">September to October I predicted another period of mixed
outcomes and volatility. But the initial August breakout was a decline. However
September did reverse this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Excellent on timing. Less good on direction.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Turkey<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to May would see focus on the currency
( see Lira analysis) which was certainly true. I also predicted that June to
August would be slightly more unstable, as events shake up the status quo
somewhat, and the financial problems definitely had an impact by this time
undermining the growth earlier in the year not to mention economic and
political spats with the US . I didn’t notice that there were elections in June
but then I am not sure anyone did as there was no change at the top. In fact I
said on balance things still seem rather positive for both the people and the
government. The latter is definitely true but less so the former.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I predicted September
and October really just see a continuation of the previous 3 months, perhaps
with slightly more expectation. Of course Turkey have been caught up with the
Saudi thing but it isn’t really a matter for the Turkish people only the
government so wouldn’t show up much in this chart.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also thought that wider events would have a knock on
effect on Turkey over the coming few years. We will see…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Lira<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I totally nailed the negative mood on the Lira from March to
May , the currency fell quite consistently. I particularly thought that the
latter part of the period would be bad but that July and August would be less
intense ( still negative). I was wrong about this the greatest falls were
August.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I was right when it came to September and October. And
a reprieve where investors may well be encouraged to buy the currency. However I
underestimated the size of these movements.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Overall a good forecast, though some details could have been
better<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Iran<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The economic position was moderately improved<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>by March to May<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>confirming that it was less intense than some
of the previous months ( e.g the earlier protests) but I still foresaw
challenges and, encouraged by a concerted Israeli campaign, Trump started his
drive to reverse the nuclear agreement. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said that around the summer there would be a change
in the way the country communicates- changing from the short sharp comments
which antagonise to longer speeches and this has indeed proved to be the case. I
thought this period be a more even tempered phase and the economic conditions
look rather mixed both of which were true.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And in September and October<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I said that a gradual change to more measured communication would arise.
This is probably true although as before we can’t judge longer term things yet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that in the shorter term however there may be some
sudden big announcements which shake things up. And of course this was the time
that Trump’s new sanctions and total withdrawal started to bite.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My final remark was rather odd but in retrospect rather perspicacious
- I said that at the end of the period, there is some opportunity to make
progress in developments or propaganda matters – which of course the Saudi
situation has made possible ( although the highly suspect and likely set up
Danish event to some extent negates that)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Overall, petty pleasesd with this one.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Israel<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that March to May could see protests and more and
that it was likely to be quite an unstable time for the people as a whole. Once
again there may be a temptation to harness force to attack others. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was the ongoing Palestinian situation of
course and o<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">n 30 March 2018, a
six-week campaign composed of a series of protests was launched at </span>the
Gaza Strip, but also direct combat between ( alleged Iranian) groups in Syria
and significant retaliation by Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I said this may well create a bigger backlash than
before and among other objections, <span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Israel's
use of deadly force was condemned on 13 June 2018 in </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_resolution_ES-10/L.23" title="United Nations General Assembly resolution ES-10/L.23"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">a United
Nations General Assembly resolution</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As I predicted June to August were mixed months, when the
dissatisfaction did<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>continue but there
was less actual confrontation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also said that there may be financial issues to contend
with, though I’m not sure the arrest of the leader’s wife for fraud was what I
expected. The head of the central bank also stepped down not convinced by
government policy<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected that things would be much the same in September
and <span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">on<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>17 September, missile strikes that hit
multiple targets in the Syrian government-controlled </span>western </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria" title="Syria"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Syria</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> were conducted by the
</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Air_Force"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Israeli Air
Force</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is difficult to
establish how this is affecting the government though.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Growth announced in September was lower than expected but I
expected it to be a transitionary time economically and politically.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Overall pretty good predicting for a reliably predictable
country<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p><strong>Saudi Arabia</strong></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Naturally, I have left, the currently most interesting
country, Saudi till last but I must confess I am somewhat disappointed in
myself.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly thought March to May would be quieter months.
Though there were reports of Mohammed bin Salman, being<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>shot and injured<b> </b>this did not appear
to have much impact on the leadership in general.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said some changes<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>might relate to women’s matters<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>and in<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> June The Saudi Arabian
government lifted the ban on women driving, which is the country's most
progressive form of women's rights to date.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">June to August comes
with a sense of drama. I thought oil and terrorism would be key. Oil certainly
- the country called off its plan to list Aramco for the time being at least
and there was a terrorist incident in the country in July. But far more
significant was the ongoing situation in Yemen. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On 6 July, Yemeni forces fired a domestic
ballistic missile at a "strategic economic target" in Jizanin
southwestern Saudi Arabia. On 9 August, a </span></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dahyan_air_strike" title="Dahyan air strike"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Saudi-led airstrike attack</span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> on a school bus in
Yemen killed 40 young school children and 11 adults. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was prescient though I said rather cryptically that were
indications of a major shake –up in the country’s foundations but it doesn’t
quite manifest now. So something in the air but nothing concrete at this stage.
Perhaps that was right<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although I thought that events would be moving faster by September
and October I did not predict anything significantly different and said that
October could be positive. Obviously totally missing the main event- though to
be fair the impact on the actual leadership ( so far) and the Saudi people in
general has been minimal. And I did predict a trickier time from November.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Prediction broadly good but missing a key event so not
perfect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-73359461231693761452018-06-17T05:46:00.001-07:002018-11-05T05:05:08.779-08:00World Cup 2018 - Introduction and Groups<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
<br />
Edit ( November 2018)<br />
<br />
Well, I never got round to looking at the World cup or anything much over the summer. Have to wait 2 years for the European one then!<br />
<br />
I'll leave the text below as a reminder that my ability to procrastinate for England far exceeds the ability of its team to win football trophies<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
I can't believe we are already in another World Cup season.<br />
<br />
I haven't had a moment to look at any predictions for this. I hope that I will be able to do so when we get to the round of 16 and through to the final, but my calendar is stuffed and that may not be possible.<br />
<br />
However as ever it is time to declare my biases<br />
<br />
First the Netherlands aren't in it so that makes it easy. Though I am now torn between supporting Spain, Argentina and Iceland! <br />
<br />
Second, there are an awful lot of teams for which I don't usually do analysis. This makes it difficult and time consuming for me.<br />
<br />
Third there are a number of teams I don't expect to progress. I won't be looking at their charts at all<br />
<br />
So my non astrological predictions would be:<br />
Group A<br />
Russia ( on basis of home advantage)<br />
Uruguay<br />
<br />
Group B<br />
Spain <br />
Portugal<br />
<br />
Group C<br />
France <br />
Australia<br />
<br />
Group D<br />
Iceland<br />
Argentina<br />
Though neither Croatia nor Nigeria can be ruled out here<br />
<br />
Group E<br />
Serbia<br />
Brazil<br />
Though Switzerland also have a good chance<br />
<br />
Group F<br />
Germany <br />
Mexico<br />
All these are good teams but in the end if you are in the German group you need to lower your expectations<br />
<br />
Group G<br />
Belgium<br />
England ( sadly I shall have to put up with English Media hype for a bit longer)<br />
<br />
Group H<br />
perhaps the hardest of all to read. Probably <br />
Poland<br />
Colombia<br />
but anything could happen<br />
<br />
If I have a few minutes I'll be concentrating on the groups that are tougher to assess.<br />
<br />
<br />
As regards the final 4 I'm struggling a lot more than I was in 2014. I still think Germany will do well again and that Brazil may well get knocked out at Round of 16. But between England, Belgium, France, Spain, Argentina and Mexico it is harder to guess and will depend on the exact group results and who plays who. Russia will probably do better than rankings suggest but I can't see them winning. Iceland could also progress to Quarter finals but probably not further.<br />
<br />
It is definitely all to play ( and predict) for this year.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-45555035996607365052018-04-16T10:02:00.000-07:002018-04-16T10:02:10.599-07:00Review January -March 2018<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Introduction<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">4 weeks ago, I thought<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>it was time for an update; this time for the period December 2017 to
March 2018. Now I thought that would be a very straightforward exercise as it
was never a time when really dramatic events were forecast for our chosen
selection of countries and markets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And, indeed, the first thing that can be said is that,
overall, the forecast pretty much nailed the relative calm of the period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Something that is often overlooked in the
quest for success in predicting major global events is the ability to predict
not a lot happening…..like most of the time in Switzerland!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However, due to the fact the period was not so quiet
astrologically for me personally, I didn’t manage to finish my review by the
beginning of April. And the last week has been rather more dramatic due to the
Syria scenario. So now I’ve had to revisit a few countries to see whether I
need to update my review for those events.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Having said that, everything happened in a short period of
time and these forecasts, especially the country ones ( markets being more
sensitive in the short term) are designed for longer trends and unless large
numbers of the population are affected the events will not show up .<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we were to look at day to day forecasts it
would be a different matter.- but we don’t do that because I have a life! So I
have to be cautious when assessing what I could have been expected to forecast
and what was too short term for that.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In any case there were other places where a moderate amount
of things did happen so let’ s look at the detail and see how we did..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">UK <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Certainly my summary of the conditions from December to
March ( when the focus on the details of Brexit just won’t go away) was accurate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although the economic conditions ( retail bankruptcies) seem
at first sight to be recessionary rather than inflationary – it is the inflationary
pressures of exchange rates that are the issue here. And interestingly<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2 facts support the suggestion; the above
inflation pay rises being offered to NHS workers and the prospect of interest
rises<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of course some things have made headline news such as the
“Russian poisoning” saga but these will barely show up the nation’s chart as so
far they have directly affected very few people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">p.s. I would have expected some impact from the impact of
the Syria events<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>on the government to
show up. However there is so much ongoing pressure that it is hard to extract
this short term event. Even looking at the UK chart for the past weekend
doesn’t reveal anything other than ongoing pressure on the leadership.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Sterling<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The currency definitely continues to encounter fluctuations
due to the Brexit uncertainties but there are factors affecting other countries
such as the US that impact too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Still
the currency has overall weakened in the period as expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It is too early to judge whether the expected focus on
Sterling trade throughout all of 2018 will materialise<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">FTSE<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was wrong about the FTSE though, the direction in early January
was correct but from then of the index has languished.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong> </strong></span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Euro<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It is also difficult to assess the Euro forecast on the
basis of just two months- although there is no doubt that interest rate
expectations continue to dominate.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Germany<o:p></o:p></span></b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of course my best forecast for Germany was that there would
be lack of policy direction post election and once again the forecast for Jan
to March was not specific enough to measure – we need to look at the year as a
whole.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">France<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The forecast correctly identified the positive mood
regarding economic progress. But I urged caution and there are certainly areas
of dissent that need watching evidenced by farmer and other protests.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></b><div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></b></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Italy<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></b><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I anticipated changes in Italy in the last 2 months of 2017
and the parliament was dissolved in December. I saw somewhat better conditions
in January and February and the opportunity to transform in March. In fact the
economy is better ( but only compared to itself but not other countries) and
this has led to a change in the balance of power in the March elections. I had
March as “curious” a good explanation of the strange voting outcome. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Spain<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am quite pleased that although I forecast the independence
pressures in the late summer I had correctly anticipated things being quieter
and more positive by year end.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I saw positive sentiment for the first three months of 2018
and indeed the economic indicators have improved. I thought that even protests
would have a positive vibe as indeed the recent women’s day ones have done.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Greece<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected a gradual recognition of continuing problems in
Greece. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In fact the economy there has grown for the 4<span style="font-size: small;"><sup>th</sup>
successive quarter and its debt has been upgraded. However analysts tend to
agree with me that the debt overhang is still too great and the August date
looms. I still expect this to cause a noticeable shake in global financial
matters.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ireland<o:p></o:p></span></b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ireland continued to do well as expected. My concerns about
the uncertainties over future direction turned out to be issues regarding the
Irish border due to UK Brexit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This dichotomy continued in the early part of 2018, though
the view seems to accord with mine that Ireland’s economy<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is now maturing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Switzerland<o:p></o:p></span></b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As expected Switzerland continues to be fine.; A US survey
ranked it 1<span style="font-size: small;"><sup>st</sup> globally once more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As usual there is little to be said.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></b><div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></b></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Iceland<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></b><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Overall as forecast the economy continues to go well. But
environmental concerns are once more under the spotlight – with both climate
change and bitcoin energy drain in the news. As I’ve said before I see Iceland
as the coalmine canary when it comes to the environment.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">USA<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted a somewhat quieter time for the US in Jan and
Feb, and to some extent that was true. The talk of new tariffs and interest
rate rises also confirmed the financial stability forecast.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I thought that March April would bring a return to
Sept/Oct 2017 and with more changes in the top team etc this seems to be the
way things are going.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">p.s. When I wrote the above a few weeks ago I was surprised
that the sabre rattling than occurred in the August –October period had not
recurred. But,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>lo and behold,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I needed to only wait a couple of weeks for
events to confirm this expectation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></o:p></b> </span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Us$<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that Feb/March might see inflation or some
pressure on the dollar. While this is not obviously apparent, the increases in
interest rates are indicative of an underlying issue- who will buy the
wonderful debt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We continue to see the
scenario gradually develop.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Dow<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I called the Dow well for the quarter. While it is too early
to confirm the bull has died we’ve definitely reached a top of some sort.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></b><div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nasdaq<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I nailed the Nasdaq too. Despite the toppish nature of early
2018, some tech stocks go from strength to strength while others ( Facebook)
have taken a battering. Overall the index, as predicted, remains more bullish
than the Dow.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mexico<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Mexico situation continues to be ( or at least continues
to be reported as) less unsettled than I expected. Though the US did issue a
warning re travel to one area. The release of an arrested cartel leader also
bodes badly going forward.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The issue of negotiation of NAFTA remains key for the coming
months and perhaps a drag on the economy. And there were reports that relations
were frosty after a call between the leaders.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While things are not as bad as I predicted I still feel
there is more to come. And Trump has increased military presence on the border
in lieu of wall building.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Peso<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While in early January the Peso showed some weakness it did
not last as long as I expected. My prediction for March being better is closer-
we wait to see whether the next few months confirm this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Despite another short term element of volatility there is
definite support for the currency now. Policies seem to be working.<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Venezuela<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>January
and February, to be a time <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>when the
efforts to improve the trading and budgetary position are tried but little was
achieved leading to increased conflict. This as the Bolivar prediction demonstrates
was the case. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There are increasing problems with Venezuela’s migrants
disrupting and being victims in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>neighbouring countries such as Colombia <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Since there is a leadership contest in May we await the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>final outcome, though things are going much
as I anticipated so far.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Bolivar<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said “The likelihood is that more changes to the currency
may be necessary” and this month three zeros were knocked off the
hyperinflation Bolivar. That is not to mention the cryptocurrency action that
does nothing to improve stability.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Brazil<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Brazil seems to be proceeding much as I expected. Not too
bad ( slight GDP expansion after a time of contraction) but with continuing
corruption investigations and accusations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong> </strong></span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong></strong></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong> </strong></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Real<o:p></o:p></strong></span></strong></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As expected the currency feel in the first two months<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although it has stabilised a bit, also as predicted, in
March.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Argentina<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The economy has grown more than expected in the last year
but the country’s deficit grows. A mixed position as expected. And the
disconnect between government and people I forecast has been reflected in a
series of strikes and protests from truckers to bankers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Arg Peso<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was wrong about the currency in January – it fell rather
than rose- though by March it appears more in line with my expectations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Still, disappointing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Canada<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I called Canada ok. The economy is tailing off – although
after the last few years thi sis not necessarily a disaster. It depends whose
opinion you read whether it is weak or solid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I think it is pretty much on track for my forecast.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Australia<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Just wow. Where did I get the idea that Australia politics
would touch on women’s issues in 2018.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yet it has, I quote from the NY times:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="story-body-text" style="margin: 1em 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Australia’s
boys-club political culture appeared in recent weeks to receive a healthy dose
of #MeToo disruption.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="story-body-text" style="margin: 1em 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">First… the
lord mayor of Melbourne, resigned after two members of the City Council accused
him of groping them. Days later,… , the deputy prime minister, stepped down
after he confessed to an affair with a staff member and was then accused by
another woman of harassment.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But the economic position is not bad at all and so the
government remains optimistic.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Things won’t really become clear till later in the year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">South Africa<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">From somewhere I gleaned the sense that January and February
2018 would continue the themes of late 2017. But with some slightly more
positive news around as things are better for the leadership and moderately ok
for the people. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And sure enough the
continued pressure on the leadership led to Zuma being pressurised to
transition power to Ramaphosa in a moderately civilized manner. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But I expected financial resource disruptions to continue
and this is true with both direct financial issues and the impact of the
drought figuring even though growth stats were better than expected. The picture
by late March looks optimistic, but we are not out of woods.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">China<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There was little concrete in my forecast for the first few
months of 2018 in China. Perhaps the most interesting and in a way accurate was
the reference to surprising announcements- although I didn’t anticipate these
would involve visits by North Korean leaders<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Renminbi<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></b><div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My forecast is a little out on timing – though within my
margins given that these are long range forecasts- the strengthening I expected
occurred in January and the levelling out in February early March. But overall
the direction was correct.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Shanghai Composite<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I forecast big swings in the first few months of the year
and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>this was correct. I also made
reference to technology- this has certainly been proved right but where as I
thought it would relate to internal technology matters it has much more to do
with market technology questions globally.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Hong Kong $<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected the pressure from 2017 to continue and this is so
with the currency reaching its lowest level vs the dollar in 33 years. I
expected speculation – it isn’t reported but I am probably correct on this too.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Hang Seng<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My forecast was for the index to mess around a bit but end
the quarter where it began and hey presto!. I rest my case!!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Japan<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was correct that recessionary /structural conditions
continue despite policies And I correctly note that there may be issues
relating to relationships with other nations as Japan feels it has been ;eft
behind in the NK situation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Corruption matters also confirm the demand for changes, even
in relation to the government, <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It is harder to assess whether I was right re steps in the
right direction technology and development wise. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Yen<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although the currency appreciated in the first couple of
months of 2018 ( against the $ at least) and there has so far been more
volatility in March. However I didn’t think this would be the focus and I was
right. The BOJ policy on debt issuance also changed in January, another area
where I touched on the core issue.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></b><div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></b></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nikkei<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></b><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected January and February to be mixed and end much
where it started. However, although the pattern did follow that, there was<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>net drop by the end of February. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">March looks like confirming the expected trends for the next
few months- as mentioned in my other market commentaries, technology is the key
but not in the way I expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></b><div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></b></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Indonesia<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></b><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My expectations for more of the same in Indonesia in the
early months proved right including increased low key unrest (deriving from the
mix of different groups). I expected with elections coming closer that this
will continue.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Indonesian Rupiah<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I correctly forecast some falls in the currency in January
and February<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and it looks like March is
also confirming my prediction.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">South korea<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The winter Olympics meant that as I predicted, the
government and people were as one in the period. However I qualified this with
the belief that it did not change some of the <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">March to May sees the people in an expansive mood- but not
necessarily a positive one. Financially the country is entering a new phase
which might be unsettled.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>North Korea<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I rather recklessly forecast that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>January and February 2018 would perhaps see
less aggravated behaviour from the country and so it proved- although of course
the underlying concerns remain.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As do the economic sanctions which make things challenging.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I am not quite on the right page with March (
although in a three month period to May a lot can happen) I was right that it
would be a period of change! But I thought that it could be the beginning of a
phase where the leadership is perceived as without clear direction or <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>weak ( perhaps ill) or more deceptive than
normal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Obviously that is not the case –
although one could argue that the current actions suggest a softening of
position. Certainly there are the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>big
developments I anticipated ( to strengthen the economic position). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said that it “ may possibly mean more maverick behaviour.
It won’t be clear exactly what is happening. “ And, arguably, while on the
surface accord looks to be the current <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>direction, no one <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is really sure! <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">India<o:p></o:p></span></b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Reading my forecast for the first few months of 2018 is not
particularly enlightening. Probably affair summation but not significant
enough<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to be able to confirm it at least
from the UK.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Rupee<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My forecast makes no sense – on<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the one hand I saw the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>currency’s value being undermined but then I
said that values would see a boost – although I did think this could be in tax
revenues which makes more sense in the context.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In any case it is far too early to confirm whether this
period is the long term turning point I predicted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Sensex</strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana;"></span> </div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I forecast a turning point in the long run trend in January
and February and sure enough this seems to have happened. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I need to relook at this one soon.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Pakistan<o:p></o:p></span></b></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected violence to escalate from the start of the year,
but this has not been the case ( there are still events but less than 2016 or
2017).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However, interestingly economically there have been 2
devaluations this year. So there is drama of a sort.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In any case these 3 months were just setting the scene as I
felt that it was all leading to a shift away from the main parties of the past
come the elections. We will see. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Now on to the more interesting areas. I’ve put Russia and
Turkey in the group with Saudi, Israel and Iran this time as to me there is an
important interlinkage – and indeed there are meetings between Russia, turkey
and Iran this week:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Russia<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was mostly right about what I said. The economic situation
( oil prices) have been better and the election was perhaps the non-event of
the millennium with no change in the hold over power.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I missed some of the global focus on the country –
with the ongoing US farce and the UK poisoning leading to expulsions of Russian
ambassadors across the developed world <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nevertheless I am curious. I said that there could be
misinformation and obfuscation and I think that one should be very cautious
about jumping to conclusions – the astrology was saying there was something
else going on here and we need to keep that in mind before we believe
everything we are told by any party.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">p.s. So the Russian disputes have escalated with the Syrian
scenario.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But once more we must exercise
caution. I think we do not have the full picture and it may well be that we are
all being serious misled. The question being “if Russia is isolated who
benefits?”- the answer is of course in what they can veto and the extent they
are likely to be acknowledged or ignored- at present the latter is most likely.
So we need to focus on what<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the likely
consequences are of that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Syria is a
small fish in this regard but gives us an indication of exactly which<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>government is likely to benefit the most.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></b><div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></b></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Rouble<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></b><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I thought that January and February would be mixed. I saw long
term underlying weakness with little upward trend in value although occasional
boosts would be likely. A good description of the chart for the period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The expected March to May volatility has not yet manifested.
But the conditions definitely support nervousness in investors.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Turkey<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I predicted 2018 to be a year of surprises relating to the
economy, resources and women.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I was right that the leadership remains supported (
regardless of external views)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However I probably underestimated the economic position
which seems better than expected – although with exports at a record high the
trade deficit remains<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a problem.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Turkish Lira<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I expected that January and February would see some
strengthening of the currency. I was wrong. However, there was a noticeable
lull in its decline over exactly the right period so I am quite pleased even
though I was not totally accurate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I then said that March would see the return to decline and
so it has proved. So I am overlal pretty pleased with this one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Saudi Arabia<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">When I look back to 2018-12 and how lacking in events this
country was ( I compared it to Switzerland) it is hard to believe now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Obviously the year continued 2017 events as I expected-
continuing issues with Yemen etc,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the
ending of the imprisonment stage of corruption sweep, strengthening
relationships with the US and even Israel and the changes for women ( slow but
steady)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The predictions are pretty good so we will see how this all
pans out longer term.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>israel<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am not sure that January and February 2018 brought any of
the predicted positive surprises regarding the Palestinian issue. But otherwise
I was spot on .<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I said “On the other hand there may be general
dissatisfaction<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and once more a tendency
for the leadership to overstep its remit. …March to May could see protests and
more. It is quite an unstable time for the people as a whole. Once again there
may be a temptation to harness force to attack others” Unfortunately this has
proved to be the case with the retaliation against the Palestinian protests and
involvement in actions in Syria as well as continuing to beat drums against
Iran. I was also right to see things backfiring as an Israeli jet was downed,
though I believe that there may be consequences to come for the country as it
tries to action its agendas.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I also saw some threat to stability of the leadership which
turned out to be corruption issues. Fair play to the Israeli government they so
seem to trying to be just like everywhere else!!!!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>Iran<o:p></o:p></strong></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As expected January and February 2018 were really just a
continuation of late 201& with protests that started in December continuing
well into January.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I though that events could make the leadership less stable
and that there was more evidence now of external relationships being involved
than in 2017. As well as Trump’s rejection of the nuclear deal and consequent
sanctions, Iran has been more in the news regarding the ME ( in relation to
Saudi’s burgeoning relationship with Israel<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>and its support of Syria) all of which seem to put the country in a less
secure position than last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The picture is however, only in the early stages of
development. I expect things to unfold further as the year progresses. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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</div>
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Artemesiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11733410961054441252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-69284593247359299492017-11-06T11:20:00.000-08:002017-11-06T11:20:04.997-08:00The world in November 2017- Dangerous fireworks or damp squibs?<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt6F6hLTuL32Y8qCWXxuM37BWtWbOTkWGbpg12UUznUHpQVSQ9pGTiG-iRX5XfDMit3lw0ZBH67-sRxhuaQw6ZabMtMgt4kcvvW9JxpKiWOjPRfmSJp6YaZaGezJmMXDD0ueHz9pr5ZMk/s1600/firework.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="450" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt6F6hLTuL32Y8qCWXxuM37BWtWbOTkWGbpg12UUznUHpQVSQ9pGTiG-iRX5XfDMit3lw0ZBH67-sRxhuaQw6ZabMtMgt4kcvvW9JxpKiWOjPRfmSJp6YaZaGezJmMXDD0ueHz9pr5ZMk/s400/firework.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p>Well, hello again. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
And for those of you who read all my forecasts at the
beginning of the year and correctly deduced that if all the resource nations
were going to do well and yet there would be problems in key <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>middle east countries, it would therefore be a
good idea to buy oil; congratulations.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Given that some areas of the world continue to look "interesting", I thought I would provide another update; to see whether those interesting events will progress into full shows or just fade away.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is not a full review though, it is just an opportunity <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to report on the more significant developments
of the last month or so.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The first of these is Spain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ignoring the economic remarks and concentrating on the political, I said<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">July to September……… there
may be some challenges for the leadership ( possibly both literally and
metaphorically), ……… October and November are similar. Again there is some
difficulty for the leadership, although the people are adapting well to changes
and events. It may be a time when independence movements make a bit of a fuss
again.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Really? Well fancy that. I’ll just take the extra brownie
points then.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Things have got a little bit quieter on the Venezuela and N
Korea fronts in the last month. However in both countries we are looking at
long term changes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Venezuela is facing a potential debt meltdown which will
further trigger the situation. I expect events within the country to continue much
as I originally predicted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In N Korea I was right to forecast that despite all the
sabre rattling there would be no outright confrontation to date.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But I still expect the situation to become
more tricky by the year end.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The real story, however is right where I expected it to be (though
some elements are perhaps 6 weeks later than I suggested).: Saudi Arabia. That
doesn’t however mean that my forecast timing is wrong ( it is only a couple of
weeks outside my confidence interval), because events of the last week make it
clear that things have been brewing for some time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In any case my November December forecast
said<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">November and December
see the continuance of the themes, there is some progress re women but this
might be obscured by the sense of agitation in the country now. There may be
sudden shocks regarding the leadership.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And, not only has it once again become apparent how
significantly Saudi is caught up in the Yemen problems, but the resignation of Lebanon’s
PM and curious announcement, together with the US visits to Israel and Netanyahu
to London, all suggest a questionable direction of travel. The Saudi, Israel, Iran
triangle is most definitely highlighted. The apparent sudden arrest of many
Saudi elite this weekend just confirms my prediction and my view that the whole
area is teetering on the brink of a crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There are only two other areas where I feel there may be an
increase in negative focus in the next two months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The first is Mexico. I have predicted some drama; likely
internationally focussed. In all probability this relates to the proposed wall;
there are central American farmers protesting on the border already. The
situation is likely to deteriorate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The second is Greece.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I expected some disagreements with partners by now, I thought perhaps
with <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>EU and/or Turkey. In fact the more
recent news is that the country’s position is looking more positive ( although
Greece has engaged in a bit of a spat with Spain). Maybe I am wrong ( I am not
infallible). However what the forecast makes clear is that the 2017 year end
trends are only the beginning of a greater issue in mid 2018. So perhaps this
is a case of the real situation not being public.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">My forecast for the next two months was:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">November and December
see a change of mood, with heightened emotions amongst the population. It is
another phase of working out the differences between 2 factions, one wanting
independence and the other preferring the status quo.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although as I write there has been a small incident of shots
outside the socialist office, there is nothing that seems to confirm my
forecast. But as so many times before I won’t change my mind yet, we’ll just
wait and see by the year end.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
</div>
Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-10249591363028173852017-09-14T14:30:00.003-07:002017-09-14T14:32:40.142-07:00Blockchain, Bitcoin and the future of currency<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTLaJ9q8vyZEyy2ns6b6Pn9fYarCIaE5Vyoa38Jn6GfstoudQZnM2CEp_wB-Wj5WwC3e0kxg6mtGaMdytesTXQHsp-xL3W9lcL2HIFh1JrKYq47ZAAepbXIV4XZZiki-WTOjJ2LmfLRY8/s1600/bitcoin-chip-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="323" data-original-width="500" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTLaJ9q8vyZEyy2ns6b6Pn9fYarCIaE5Vyoa38Jn6GfstoudQZnM2CEp_wB-Wj5WwC3e0kxg6mtGaMdytesTXQHsp-xL3W9lcL2HIFh1JrKYq47ZAAepbXIV4XZZiki-WTOjJ2LmfLRY8/s400/bitcoin-chip-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">[Note: This is a very long post. I considered splitting it
into parts but in the end felt it was imperative to keep the whole picture
together.]<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Introduction<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Aims<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Consider the technology and philosophy behind
block-chain and more specifically bitcoin and its relatives. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Look at the astrological charts for some key
dates in the history of the technology<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 36pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Use this information to make some forecasts of
where the currency values are heading.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Technology<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">I don’t propose to give a full account of the technology
here, I am not a block-chain expert and there are many who would do it much
better. There are links at the end of this post and Google is your friend.
However there are a few key points to note.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Block-chain and bitcoin may be new but many of the
technologies it uses existed before 2008; namely the encryption methods that
allow anonymity, the internet itself which facilitates the distributed
recording and validation, and even the creation of referenced blocks. However
it is the combination that gives the technology its potential.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Note, I refer to the technology here and not Bitcoin or even
“cryptocurrencies” in general. Because there are potentially many other uses of
block-chain that do not involve the creation of a currency. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And indeed investment in these may well be
worthwhile, though rather like the original internet I suspect that most of the
best inventions will be created, or at least acquired by large corporations –
pick those corporations and you can perhaps make a decent return.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">But at the moment it is the currencies that are being hyped,
(of course they are, as we will see Neptune in the foundation charts is at 22
degrees!) and so it is the currencies that we will primarily concern ourselves
for much of this article.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Part I <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Currencies: a little
trip through history<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">To understand the hype, or perhaps to negate it, we need to
take a step back and look a currencies in general.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">We all know the definitions currency is: i) a unit of
account, ii)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a medium of exchange and
iii)a store of value. And of course we all know that (unless they have
intrinsic and widespread appeal in themselves), they are no good as ii) and
iii) if there is no trust between the parties: Mr Mugabe take a bow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Even a currency’s use as a unit of account
is put into question if it is worth 1millionth of its original value, unless
you have a ledger capable of recording Pi exactly!)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it is no joke, we should do well to
remember what the Germany hyperinflation of the 1920s produced in its wake and
we’ll return to the subject of inflation later.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">So, that’s the theory but it is what those attributes mean
in practice that is the key to understanding any new entrant. Let’s go back to
absolute basics. What follows is a potted history of money, for extensive
versions see the recommended reading :<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Coins. <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Of course, now, hard currency forms a minute fraction of all
the money in circulation but that was not always the case. Once upon a time
there were just coins.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Why do we need money? To simplify trading in increasingly
complex societies where for reasons of demand, time and location barter won’t
work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I.e when I supply some financial
astrology services I will get paid in gold which I will use later to purchase
food for my cats! It is most unlikely that you will give me cat treats in
exchange for my services.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">So, initially, there were 2 main requirements for a
currency; <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Intrinsic value: Gold, and other precious metals, had value
for their ornamental qualities. And, of course. because they were available in
limited quantities, their desirability was preserved. They were thus obvious
choices. And in general we can assume that values of the “currency” at this
point were relatively stable against other assets and commodities. If you
received a coin you knew what it was worth in terms of bread, clothing and
shelter etc. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">and <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Portability: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>because
all exchange was physical they needed to be portable. Again the value of metal
per ounce/kg was high so only a small amount needed to be carried.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">[It didn’t have to be gold, it could be spices, or silks or
anything of similar value and portability, gold became preferred because it it
did not deteriorate when held for longer periods]<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">There is also one other characteristic that, almost by
definition, is rarely of interest to the user but has potential importance,
namely that traditionally currency is fungible- one unit looks and behaves just
like another. This does have all sorts of legal ramifications where criminal
activity takes place and innocent parties receive money from that party later
on but for most purposes is something that is just taken for granted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">But what we are missing from this is where the money came
from. Obviously in a simple system A mines the gold and uses it to pay for
food, thus releasing it into the system. Over time the amount in the system rises
but slowly over long periods. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the
value of the commodity/currency rises a lot more people mine until the value drops
again. Just like any other commercial activity whether it is worth mining
depends on the cost of doing so versus the exchange value. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">But the value is at
all times determined by the outside market based it desirability for other uses
not as a currency.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Currencies such as gold worked, then, because they
paralleled the growth of complex societies, i.e the amount of commodities mined
increased as the differentiation of tasks and size of the hierarchy within a
society increased. The process was mostly incremental and did not disrupt the
existing economic hierarchy significantly.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">It is also worth noting that although rulers did “mint”
currency, they weren’t creating it they were merely branding it. No central
organisation was technically required at this stage, just general acceptance as
to the value of the metal etc. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Of course there were other reasons for the central control
of money ( taxes, etc.) but they were separate functions. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The two are linked but not inextricably so.
We’ll return to governments and their desires and powers later on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">We need to understand the downsides of our coins too. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even in
the early days of currency theft was clearly one. Safe storage and carriage
became important. Fakes also appeared and validation (examination, weighing
etc.) was added to the mix. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Notes and other forms
of fiat<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Later (to cut a very, very, long story short) two options
developed, i) coins that were not underpinned by intrinsic value and then ii)
paper currency which very obviously had none<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">It is crucial, here, to bear in mind that the fact that the
currency was no longer backed by anything with intrinsic worth is NOT a problem
per se.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Currency becomes a sort of
IOU/Bill of exchange. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that as long as
others will honour it. It is a system based on faith or trust where rather than
trusting an individual to honour your debt you trust the system co-ordinator. If
such a system is supported by a stable State the currency still retains all its
original properties. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Note that, once again, a State is not absolutely required for
this form of IOU to work, it just provides the fiat (the decree or other
determination that a currency exists) which further support and credibility. In
practice this is done by designating the state currency as “legal tender”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But I can still receive IOUs on my own
currency post –it-notes from my friends if we are both happy with that – it
merely means I don’t have to receive dodgy IOUs on post it notes from <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>clients I will never see again; I can now
receive “bills” that are exchangeable anywhere in the State.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">On the downside, we still don’t get away from the problem of
theft or that of fakes. New methods must be adopted to minimise these –
normally also co-ordinated by that said State.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">But as our currency has no intrinsic value, it can also be
replicated infinitely; we are now exposed to monetary inflation created by
increases in supply, even if that supply is genuine (non-fake) and mandated by
the central co-ordinator.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">However, contrary to what you might think, once again, that
is not of itself a problem .If everyone holds exactly the same amount of real
wealth<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>of the currency, currency<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>inflation will have no effect on the system
whatsoever. The problem is that devaluing the currency makes real assets or
commodities more expensive in relation to income based in the currency. The
problem is NOT the inflation of the fiat currency itself, it is the
magnification of the inequalities that result.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Finally, for completeness, although paper money often has
serial numbers, for all intents and purposes it is still as fungible as the
coins were. The serial numbers are merely part of the creation validation
mechanism, no-one maintains of record of who owns which ones at any point in
time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Bank accounts<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">I want to quickly say something about banks. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have two functions that are relevant here:
security of your currency asset and lending brokerage. These are two completely
different functions, just bundled together for convenience. And I’m not going
to harp on about fractional reserve banking in the way that many others do. It
is a red herring and all the qualities of currency that concern us can be dealt
with without reference to it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">I just want to address the fact that stage three in currency
development is for it to lose it physical form altogether.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now instead of holding a note saying “ pay
the bearer the sum of”, we have an account.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is still an IOU but now we can store our IOUs “safely” in a ledger and
the manager of that ledger ( the bank) will offer further IOUs<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and accept IOUs for us (for fees of course!).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Again, we don’t <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">need</i>
a government to organise this- although by convention we tend to hold our
accounts in our State branded units. Our trust in the currency remains with the
State, our trust in the “storage”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is in
the banks ( subject to any State guarantees).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">And, again, to complete the picture the “IOUs “ in these
accounts are still fungible. I don’t care and you don’t care, nor can either of
us tell, whether the transfer of virtual bills the bank made on my behalf to
pay you <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for my cat food came from my client
last Thursday or from my Great Aunty Mabel as a Christmas present. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Digitisation<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Obviously the advent of computers meant that the ledger IOUs
got digitised. Nothing changed about the nature of the currency itself. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">And of course with that digitisation came new theft/security
risks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The methods might change, the fundamentals
of the system did not.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Debt<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">It must be apparent from the foregoing that all currency (
the “bills” or “IOUs”) held by us<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>(whether coin, paper or ledger) is just debt owed to us by others. When
we borrow we just get given some tradeable IOUs ( that we can pass on in
payment for a house/car <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>etc) in exchange
for the lender receiving our longer term IOUS and fees ( interest etc). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Now that is another thing that doesn’t matter per se. Indeed
it is inherent in the system and when the system works it is absolutely fine.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The problem, which I have dealt with extensively elsewhere,
is that people and governments take on too much debt. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: #24292e; font-family: "segoe ui" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;">The power of the state</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">As mentioned, the state is often the creator, co-ordinator
and brander of a currency. But the state as well as providing a stable medium
of exchange has a lot of other goals and primary among these is stability of
the State itself. I don’t want to get into a discussion of competitive economic
systems here, though they are highly relevant to our debate. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead we will keep to general terms. Depending
on the model , to maintain stability the state will to a greater or lesser
extent do the following:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Collect and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>re-distribute taxes<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Maintain infrastructure<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Create laws and regulations<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 36pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo5; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Maintain a military and /or law enforcement.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">If it sees its stability threatened it will legislate and or
act accordingly. And be surrounded by a whole lot of lawyers rubbing their
hands together in glee.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">It is worth reviewing the history and hype of the internet
at this point. Remember that free and easy marketplace and free speech platform
that the early adopters preached about. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now remember the Spyware act in the US, Data
protection in Europe, Intellectual property cases, debates about inappropriate
content on social media and whether the social media sites ( or the IP
providers etc) should be monitoring them and especially remember the on-line
gambling bans. And that does not include China, and other regimes where information
is carefully managed, e.g. Turkish social media ban following the alleged
attempted coup.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">But it is not just directly applicable regulations that they
can control.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Yes, governments can stop sites, they can block whole chunks
of the infrastructure from working and they can even get into the supply chain
and taking out the innocent middle man to stop the operation taking place as
they did with credit card providers in the gambling example.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">They’ll get their hands on the taxes too; somehow… at some
point in the chain, even if they just have to collect sales tax from sellers or
raise import duties. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And as a last resort
they’ll send in the military. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">All this we need to bear in mind when considering how likely
we are to have a new significant currency take over.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">That’s the basics of traditional currency then, so how do
these so called “crypto currencies” differ? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><br clear="all" style="mso-special-character: line-break; page-break-before: always;" />
</span></b>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Part II -“Crypto-currencies
“<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Obviously, by definition, crypto currencies are not coins or
notes etc. They are entries on a digital ledger.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But they have some special properties that
separate them from the digital currency accounts already discussed . <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Let’s take bitcoin as our example here as it is still the
best known.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’ll use Satoshi Nakamoto’s
words from the original paper here:<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;">Double-spending
is prevented with a peer-to-peer network.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;">No mint
or other trusted parties.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;">Participants
can be anonymous.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;">New coins
are made from Hashcash style proof-of-work. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;">The
proof-of-work for new coin generation also powers the<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;">network
to prevent double-spending.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">We’ll now look at these characteristics within the context
of the properties of money to establish to what extent they differ from
traditional currencies and to what extent those differences make them more or
less attractive. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Medium of exchange<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Trust<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No mint or other trusted parties<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Note that Satoshi doesn’t call Bitcoin a crypto-currency, he
calls it a peer to peer one. The key feature of Bitcoin is its peer to peer
facility. So in theory we get round the problem <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>not just of the dodgy third party but we also
do away with the bank central government money creator/coordinator ( I won’t
use the word mint as this suggests coins rather than IOUs).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">As we’ve seen this central co-ordinator is not a
pre-requisite for any system and its purpose has been provision of an
underlying level of trust; the safer the State the safer the currency .<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">In theory, with this blockchain and the distributed and
secure technology we don’t need a trusted central party. Validation is done by
the system as a whole (for a fee) and security is built in. We can circumvent
the state.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">But if you trust your State even marginally why would you
need to circumvent it and replace it with random selection of people across the
globe?<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">However, there is also the other question of trust; to
what extent does the State inflated away the value of its currency by
increasing its supply – we’ll look at that under “the value of bitcoin” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>at the end of this section.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">Security
issues<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">As
well as the protections afforded by cryptographic keys, <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;">Double-spending is prevented with a peer-to-peer network and The
proof-of-work for new coin generation also powers the network to prevent
double-spending.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The double spending problem is one that arises due to real
time gaps ( whether days, hours or seconds) between payments and validation of
the transaction/remaining balance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Despite Satoshi’s words Bitcoin did run into this problem initially
though it is less likely now :<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">For example: A bug that led to creation of more than
184 billion bitcoins ( many more than actually possible) caused hard fork (9
Feb 2011) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">However as we know, it is possible for any system to be
breached. Coins could still be double spent in fractions of a second,
especially as volumes increase. I am prepared to be persuaded this can be
prevented but I am not yet convinced.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">Exchanges
and w</span><span style="font-family: "calibri";">allets<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Although
there is no “mint” for creation, the trusted party problem may remain for
storage. Exchanges weren’t in Satoshi’s summary as clearly they negate the peer
to peer nature of the currency.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Anyone
with any knowledge of Bitcoin at all will have heard of the Mt Gox fiasco (opened
18 July 2010, initial hack, 19 June 2011, closed 24 Feb 2014) and the arrest of
its founder (1 Aug 2015). <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">But other exchanges have had problems too: the alleged Ponzi
, Bitcoins savings and Trust (17 Aug 2012), and the hacked Linode (1 March
2012).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">Obviously using an exchange for storage is just as
risky as using a bank or other intermediary ( well more so since there are no long
established brands to protect and no government guarantees)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt;">So a wise true
peer-to-peer holder needs to keep their coins in a hardware wallet or write
down the details.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even then there is a
risk of loss of wallets (destruction of your computer/loss of access details). And
I’m not sure what happens to your bitcoin wealth if you die without passing on
the details of your wallet/coins. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt;">And, interestingly,
if the system remained truly</span><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt;">peer-
to- peer there would be no exchanges you could buy bitcoin from anyway……….<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt;">Buying bitcoin<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></div>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt;">The first purchase
of bitcoin with dollars occurred on Oct 12 2009<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><br />
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt;">In Satoshi’s model,
you would receive bitcoin in payment for something. In practice people are
buying it. But to buy it you need to spend a traditional currency. You are NOT,
until you are actually in possession of your validated Bitcoins, benefiting
from the technology that manages them so you run all the risks that buying any
other commodity with traditional payment incurs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">For Bitcoin to overtake traditional currencies such as dollars,
for example, it would need to stop being a commodity that people want to
purchase and start being a currency that people choose to use.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Acquiring coins at
source<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New coins are made from Hashcash
style proof-of-work.</span><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> (<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">i.e They can be “mined”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In this way they are more like precious metals in that they can be obtained
at source by workers. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Of
course just like any mining you have to be in it to win it. And just like any
other form of manufacturing it is cheaper some places than others. Ironically
it is differences between states that create environments more or less
favourable for mining. China policy on electricity as made it a preferred
location. Mining has got more attractive as the price has risen but the in-
built halfing mechanism that slows the increase in supply has the opposite
effect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Satoshi
did not deal with inherent inequalities in the system ; whether regional,
economic (ability to buy the equipment)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>or knowledge based – ability to “mine”. Tacitly his concept was the
implication that everyone could mine in the same way if they chose.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">There
are therefore potentially some inherent problems in the issuance that reduces
the likelihood that the currency will ever be widely held. But that also
depends on other factors that we will address at further on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Anonymity and
fungibility<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "courier new"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Participants can be anonymous</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Due to the public/private encryption only the coin and its
payment history is identifiable and not the owner.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">This has two implications<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 36pt; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -36pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">i)</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">the currency you hold is no longer fungible (in
my view, though some definitions of fungibility depend on substitution of
similar items)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Of course, as we already established the average person
doesn’t care which coins are used for what. So this is no advantage for a
currency, and can even be a disadvantage, if funds received in good faith turn
out to have a dodgy source. I am not a lawyer but I’m sure that some of them,
at least, will get rich on debating this!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 54pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l4 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -36pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">ii)</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">you can operate peer to peer anonymously without
a third party ( contrast this with for example paypal where a third party keeps
both parties details). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The question is why would <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>this be of especial interest to the average
person. I’ve not entered into a financial transaction with any person or
organisation yet that I need to withhold my details from.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">So it is an advantage in theory but not one the majority
care about. Of course it has become well known that black market trades have
tended to migrate to Bitcoin. The Silk Road being the best known one ( Founded
Feb 2011, alleged founder arrested 1 Oct 2013 3.15pm PDT )<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Competing currencies<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">One of the key factors, other than trust, that makes a
currency work as a medium of exchange is its ubiquity . Within a country or
region everyone accepts and gives the same currency and approximately knows
what they can get for it, not because it is the legal tender but because it is
the most accepted means of payment. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
really don’t want to have to pay for my milk in wibbets and my bread in
wobbets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Of course if you have competing currencies it isn’t a
problem if: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">exchange is easy and cheap. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt 36pt; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">The exchange rate is relative constant so
you waste little time in comparisons<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">But if either of these criteria fail, then the less
attractive currency will fail. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;">We can say with the certainty that one attaches to the
winner of network effects that one will dominate in the end.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">At the moment there are many such currencies, whereas “
there can be only one” or at least one<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>global
one and one per region/country. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Dinosaurs and kings-
or the realities of bitcoin in the real world <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Much of the foregoing discusses the theoretical properties
of bitcoin. For the man in the street, however, the daily concerns are more
practical. There was an interesting report in the Evening Standard of a literal
Payments Race that took place in June 2017 from London to Copenhagen.
Participants tried to make the trip using only one type of payment; e.g.
contactless, chip and pin, gold, coins and of course bitcoins. Sadly the result
would not make Satoshi a happy bunny: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not only was the winner the gold carrier but
the worst result was the bitcoin racer who failed to make the journey at all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The result can be found here and makes an interesting listen
for any geeks wanting to understand the gap between the utopian technological theory
and the practicalities of dealing with uninformed populace on one hand and very
slowly evolving organisations on the other.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I particularly liked the bit about the teenagers being the only people
offering to accept bitcoin but not actually able to deliver the transportation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGFWLD15iVk<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">I’d also like to add that about 10 years ago <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was an attendee on <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a consumer panel at the UK payments council
looking at the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>abolition of cheques with
a 2018 target. After a few years the plan was shelved. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">
</b>people at the other end of the spectrum from the geeks who are not going to
give up the old ways and in some cases are physically unable to do so. Rome
wasn’t built in a day and nor was the Euro. We will get there one day but I
don’t see it happening in the next few years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Units of account<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">As units of account, individually, Bitcoins obviously function
just fine, but then so does every other currency when recorded digitally. The
only difference with Bitcoin is the fungibility which we’ve already touched on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">But we also need to account for masses of bitcoin. For
global acceptance we need to be able to record national GDP at one level, and
yet our developing country worker needs to be able to receive his bitcoin
equivalent of a $1 a day. Bitcoins were created with a practical upper limit
expected to be around 21 million. That’s not many right? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">But, no worries, it is possible to have bits of bitcoin, 100
million bits in fact, so in total we can have 2,100 trillion units. To give
some perspective total global debt is around $200 trillion or allowing the full
spectrum of units for those who only earn cents per day 20,000 trillion units. And,
in any case, much of the consolidated figures we deal with aren’t currency <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">transactions</i> but the sum of those transactions
for reporting purposes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The upper limit
of bitcoin is only for the number in issue, it is not for total wealth and we
can easily record on paper an infinite sum ( indeed I’ve already used a number
bigger than 21m in this article).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">So we can theoretically account for enough bitcoin in the
foreseeable future. So, great, for units of account purposes we can distribute
our bits of bitcoin globally and there’ll be enough to go round when we want to
account for global GDP numbers and for the kiddies sweets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The practical problem of scalability is not whether we can
have enough bitcoin, it is recording and validating them as they start to
become more accepted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Remember bitcoin aren’t fungible, each one is identifiable,
but to make that worthwhile each one must be validated each time it is
transferred. That’s like giving each cent in your account a unique identifier
and noting how you spend it. But since bitcoin requires mulitple system
participates to validate a payment, that means that you could flood the system
just by making a load of £0.01 equivalent payments. Worth it just for the
laugh, eh?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Or as one commentated put it “To grow to a planet scale,
Bitcoin will a) require a radical re-architecture or the successful
implementation of an off-blockchain payment system, where the blockchain merely
functions as a dispute mitigator. To put the problem in perspective: if 7
billion people perform 2 transactions a day, that alone gives us 24 GB blocks,
generating a blockchain of 3.5 TB a day, or 1.27 PB per year.”<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i>
https://github.com/the-laughing-monkey/cicada-platform<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">i.e there just aren’t enough resources in the network to
maintain the level of validations required. So<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>something will have to give. And if something gives the initial vision
is lost.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Trust in a store of
value<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Given that the core element that makes something a currency
is "anything that is accepted as a medium of exchange", there are no
barriers to Bitcoin and the like being a currency but the key question is how
does it get past the general acceptance point?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The real debate that generated the initial interest in these
currencies was not about their capability to form a trusted medium of exchange,
or about their operation as units of account but about their ability to be a
store of value; an answer to the problem of traditional currencies such as the
dollar or sterling being inflated away by the increase in the money supply.
Indeed Satoshi’s original post on 3 January 2009 was accompanied by a reference
to the UK chancellor’s increase of the money supply.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Although we aren’t there yet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the moment the number of bitcoin is still
growing just like government fiat. But there are also issues of how to scale it
emerging; for example see the split into Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash Aug 1 2017. So
if the logic is extrapolated, it is currently a worse bet than government fiat!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">The value of bitcoin<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Contrary to what some believe, Bitcoin is NOT analogous to
old fashioned gold. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">As we saw, at the beginning, gold was chosen because it had
an intrinsic value as a decorative commodity that had uses. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And that its value was dependent no just on
how much of it was available but on its intrinsic use outside the currency
system.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Bitcoin, is a virtual construct. I can use it to make
payments but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>whether there is one bitcoin,
21 milllion bitcoin or infinite bitcoins, I can never plaster it all over my
ceiling or on my cakes. Outside the currency framework it is worthless. It’s
only authority comes from Satoshi’s paper- it is therefore a fiat currency just
like all the rest.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The only difference is that (eventually) it has a finite
level. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Indeed had all bitcoin been mined and released <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>at once or over time at the same price or with
very slight increases in value and we had now reached 21 million spread
widely<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the lack of intrinsic value might
not have been an issue. The security issues coupled with the fixed supply might
have ensured confidence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Instead, Bitcoin has not only been mined by a relatively
small number of people but it has increased exponentially in value lately. When
the goal of a currency is stability, a rapidly increasing value one is as
destabilising as a hyperinflating/depreciating one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">To understand the problem let’s look at an extreme example. Jack
and Jill live on an island with 1 million people. The island has a currency
which has depreciated due to increasing supply over many years. Jack and Jill
decide to create a currency called ja-jis. They are able to brand it in a way
that can never be copied and because of that there is an upper limit to the number
of units. They use it in in exchange between themselves for a few years then
open it to others.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">One of two people are interested in it as an Investment and
acquire some – the price quickly rises. A few more people are attracted and the
price rises again. 20000 people eventually own some and the price is very high.
The remaining owners of the original currency certainly can’t afford any. But
no worries they can just carry on using what they’ve got.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">And now Jack and Jill still own 90% of it- they have
apparent vast wealth. And the 20000 have varying amounts. But the other 98% can’t
afford to buy ja-jis and since they have no intrinsic value don’t need to. Without
a “system administrator” such as a stable government where is the incentive for
the average person to accept a new currency as payment?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">It is conceivable that the price will drop in an orderly
fashion until more people are able and wish to participate but the drop is
likely to put them off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In practice the
bubble will pop as the 20000 lose faith and the currency will end up worthless.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Contrast this will another similar island. There the
government realises that faith in their money supply is faltering. They issue a
new currency similar to that created by Jack and Jill but they do so by setting
a rate on one day that people can exchange their old currency for. With 100%
the currency widely held and used, it is a success and its value remains stable
so there is no speculation in it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">And that brings us back to the question of government power
and how that relates to Bitcoin.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Bitcoin and
government power<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">So far different governments have reacted in different ways
but there are some common themes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Japan has declared bitcoin legal tender on 1 April 2017. As
a headline that sounds like a win for bitcoin holders. But the devil is in the
detail, declaring a currency legal tender brings it under all sorts of other
legislation including money laundering, which for a currency which prides
itself on anonymity is a bit sad.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">China has been less subtle. On December 5 2013, China banned
financial institutions from using Bitcoin. On 10 april 2014 its state bank
cracked down on bitcoin exchanges. More recently , 4 Sept 2017, it has banned
ICOs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">And in the US, and bitcoin was declared a commodity on 18
Sept 2015 thus trapping it under another set of legislation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">A finally,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>New York
state, a leader in the gambling regulations already mentioned,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>released Bitlicenses in June 2015 with
regulations specially targeted at the currency itself.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">And you can bet that if they think bitcoin transactions
might exclude the taxman from the picture they will be even more vigilant. On
March 26 2014 the IRS declared that bitcoin was to be taxed as property.
Obviously, since ownership is hidden, this requires declaration but
non-declaration is<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a crime and I can bet
that they will merely transfer tax collecting to other points in the spending
chain<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>( e.g sales taxes) if bitcoin
take-up becomes more widespread.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And of course
ultimately they can always play the defence card citing the currency supports
terrorists or rogue states. Then it is toast.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Clearly the vision of peer- to-peer transactions, free of
the influence of third parties, whether state or otherwise was just a trifle
naïve much like the initial view of the internet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">My contention is therefore that for a new currency to be
accepted from the group up would require a complete breakdown in other elements
of the State first.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Readers, who’ve already looked at some of my predictions
will know that there is likely to be significant instability financial and
otherwise in the next three years. Does that mean Bitcoin and co will have
their day in the sun or that something else will happen?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Part II The Astrology
of Bitcoin <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Many moons ago, back in 2003 I think, I conducted a detailed
review of major currencies and the dollar in particular, looking at key zodiac
degrees highlighted in currency charts. I concluded at the time that around
18-19 degrees was an important currency degree, 22-23 degrees was also
important particularly for the dollar and that 4 degrees Virgo was a
significant dollar exchange point. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">It is interesting to see, then, that the charts for Bitcoin
also highlight some of those degrees, as well as 0 degrees which does not
feature in the dollar chart at all and does speak of new beginnings.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">But I am jumping ahead of myself. Let’s look at the charts<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Bitcoin <i>Paper: Fri Oct 31 14:10:00 EDT 2008 NY – the
chart is set for New York where the owner of the email server for the crypto
group that Satoshi published through is based.</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" filled="f" id="_x0000_t75" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" stroked="f">
<v:stroke joinstyle="miter">
<v:formulas>
<v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0">
<v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0">
<v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1">
<v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2">
<v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth">
<v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight">
<v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1">
<v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2">
<v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth">
<v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0">
<v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight">
<v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0">
</v:f>
<v:path gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect" o:extrusionok="f">
<o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit">
</o:lock><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_5" o:spid="_x0000_i1027" style="height: 259.5pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 450.75pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
<v:imagedata o:title="" src="file:///C:\Users\OPTIME~1\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image001.png">
</v:imagedata></v:shape></v:path></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:formulas></v:stroke></v:shapetype></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKwFKUQwi5eJcfZW9Ype5F_XLKvLCeDXNUL7gVldxB0Y7XbdwAmE64AQISWXVSLewJuWB-vGX0HdHsXL_DEHNKhOdEaP0yRUszAMLeGPBBlzeOeZOMap7EVD0KRAZhxHn0I_Cwh9VCWTg/s1600/BLOCK.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1379" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKwFKUQwi5eJcfZW9Ype5F_XLKvLCeDXNUL7gVldxB0Y7XbdwAmE64AQISWXVSLewJuWB-vGX0HdHsXL_DEHNKhOdEaP0yRUszAMLeGPBBlzeOeZOMap7EVD0KRAZhxHn0I_Cwh9VCWTg/s400/BLOCK.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">It is my contention
that this chart gives us an indication of the philosophy behind the technology
and whether it will be well received and adopted. And while it might tell us
something about the currencies I don’t think it is the best chart for that.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">One of the reasons
I think that is the position of Pluto at 29 degrees Sagittarius in the chart.
This contrasts with the later charts where Sagittarius has moved into Capricorn
and becomes more<i> </i>concrete. This is further confirmed by Mercury in Libra
– suggesting the idea is somewhat utopian. The Moon also appears in Sagittarius
indicating the plans for changing society.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Neptune is at 21
degrees, and again it is the later charts that we see it at the key 22 degrees
currency point. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">The Sun is in
secretive Scorpio, perhaps saying something about the founder.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Then we have the
configuration that describes our technology- Saturn at 18 degrees Virgo opposes
Uranus at 19 Pisces and is supported by Jupiter at 16 Capricorn and Mars at 18
Scorpio.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><i>1st Bitcoin mined: 3 jan 2009 18.15.05 UT ( set for Dublin
though competing locations have been proposed) </i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_6" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" style="height: 252.75pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 451.5pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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<i><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></i></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">This chart ought to
be the perfect chart for nailing Bitcoin’s future. But the uncertainly over the
location weakens it. It can be used to answer value questions but with care.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">As mentioned Pluto
is now in early Capricorn- we have our change made real. Mercury this time is
also at an early degree.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">And once again we
have a planet at 29 degrees, this time it is Jupiter. This is then showing that
we are once again at a change point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We
have created our Bitcoin but nothing more has happened. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">There is some cause
for concern though as now the Moon in Aries is square Mars in Capricorn, some
issues relating to the situation of the Bitcoin miners and the general public
may be surmised. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<i><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">First bitcoin peer to peer transfer: 12 JAN 2009 3.35UT.
In the absence of certainly regarding Satoshi’s location I have drawn up the
chart for Temple City CA where Hal Finney the recipient was based<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></i></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">This is the best
thing we have as an initial trading chart (though there was actually no trade
involved- the first real trade was a pizza purchase in 2010). I think this chart
can tell us the most about how Bitcoin may function as a currency. The fact
that the node appears exactly on the Ascendant of the original paper’s chart
seems to confirm this.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">But this time we
see evidence of a currency actually forming. The Sun is now at 22 Capricorn
which both echoes the Neptune at 22 Aquarius but also supports the Uranus-
Saturn opposition again. We also have an Ascendant and Mid-heaven, albeit of
the recipient and we see that the MC is at 18 Taurus, also a key currency
degree but yet<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>tending to support the
other 22 degree configuration, while the Ascendant is at 23 degrees Leo
opposite Neptune.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Nevertheless we
still have a hard aspect to the Moon. It is opposite Mercury. We are looking
for a medium of exchange so no aspect would be worse, but I can’t help feeling
this might lead to some challenges. Indeed I see this as perhaps being the
problem of sheer volume of transactions to be validated.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">But what surprised
me about all three charts is not what was there but what wasn’t.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">In the US dollar
chart there is a conjunction between Neptune and Jupiter which widely opposes
the currency’s Saturn. It is this conjunction at 28 Libra that represents the
faith elements of the currency and its tendency to inflate towards the
infinite. While the Jupiter in the bitcoin mining chart is square the dollar’s
Libra conjunction, the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>bitcoin payment
chart makes no aspect to it.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However the progressed Neptune in the dollar
chart is at 0 degrees Scorpio, so the emphasis , particularly in the bitcoin transfer
chart on 0-2 degrees is suggestive of a link. And this applies particularly too
the Jupiter at 1 Aquarius. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">So I am going to
focus on this 12 Jan 2009 chart for the purpose of analysis and forecasting.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">The first date I ‘d
like to look at is that of the first dollar/bitcoin exchange on 12 October
2009. At this point Bitcoin was valued at just $0.001. Neptune was by now at 23
Aquarius exactly on the descendant, while Uranus was at 23 Pisces, so a perfect
time for it then. Jupiter opposes the bitcoin progressed moon at 17 Leo and the
progressed MC at 19 Taurus was sextile the chart’s Uranus:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>time to reach more of the people. All this
was triggered by the inner planets on the day, Mars sextile Venus and Saturn at
28 degrees ( ref. the US chart) <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Our next date is
the weird hard fork of 15 August 2010. Saturn opposed Jupiter and squared the
Bitcoin Jupiter; big tech surprises. These were accentuated by Uranus quincunx
the progressed Moon at 29 Leo- something needed to change, and a Mars square
Mars (attack).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Sun was at 22 Leo on
the Ascendant throwing light on it all. Anyway, Bitcoin was still worth less
than a dollar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Some new exchanges
were created on 27 March 2011. Neptune was at 29 degrees, on the point of
changing things significantly. The Sun was making a favourable trine/sextile
aspect to the Moon/Mercury opposition encouraging the world to use the
currency. Mercury the key to exchanges was at 23 Aries and was trine the
Ascendant. However Saturn was again opposite Jupiter but now it was at 14 degrees
square Mars. The moment was not without challenges.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">On 19 June, when
Bitcoin was valued around $18, Mt Gox was hacked. Neptune had reached 0 Pisces
indicating a change of environment. The progressed Moon was trine Mars, Jupiter
was square the chart Jupiter , Pluto was quincunx its Moon and transiting
Mercury triggered it all off with an quincunx to Mercury.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Another exchange
hack, this time Linode, happened on 1 March 2012. But this was less publicised
and there are less specific indicators. However it is apparent the wider conditions
weren’t so good for the currency with the progressed Moon conjunct Saturn and
transiting Saturn at 29 Virgo.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">The first halving
day took place on 28 November with Neptune still at 0 degrees. Transiting Pluto
was conjunct transiting Mars that day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The progressed Moon was activating a square to the chart’s Pluto though
trine its Jupiter, it was transforming in order to grow. Transiting Mercury,
sitting at 18 Scorpio on the chart’s MC, defined the day by changing the
foundations <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Our next key date
is 10 April 2013 when volume broke Mt Gox. In six months the Bitcoin had risen
from $12 to $180. On the day, and really all we need to know, was that there
was a conjunction of the Sun, Mars, Venus and the Moon at 23 Aries. Progressed
Moon was trine Progressed Mercury making trade much easier. The progressed MC
had reached 23 Taurus square the Ascendant. And Pluto continued its slow
transit over Mars.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There appears not to be too much new in the
December chart of the Chinese ban, perhaps the chart relocated to Beijing would
show more. Bitcoin was $1000 by now.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">But there is more
to say by 24 February 2014 when Mt Gox closed. Now transiting Neptune is
conjunct the transiting Sun and quincunx the chart’s Moon. Saturn has reached
23 Scorpio opposing the progressed MC and square the chart Neptune. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A Jupiter Uranus square also aspects the
chart’s Mars. A definite time of challenge.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">A month later on 2
March the IRS reached its decision on bitcoin taxation. Transiting Sun opposed
the chart Moon and the cardinal cross was at one of its most intense times.
Clearly this had global significance. And these challenging conditions
continued to weigh on the fledgling’s price all through that year and 2015 when
Pluto continued to conjoin the Bitcoin<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mars,
Uranus was around 19 Aries and Saturn moved back and fro across 0
Sagittarius.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">By the end of 2015
the focus was still tough but was shifting to media events; notably the 8 Dec
2015 fake Satoshi identification. The progressed Moon trine Venus and Sun
square progressed Venus, progressed Ascendant and Sun at 29 degrees as well as
Jupiter conjunct Saturn in the chart all showed the focus. But Bitcoin was
still stuck at around $400.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">More media coverage
(Moon progressed trine Venus progressed) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>accompanied the next halving day on 9 July
2016. The focus was back on the tech though with Uranus quincunx transiting
Mars and trine Ascendant, Pluto crossing the progressed Mars and naturally a
Jupiter opposition to the chart Uranus. Bitcoin was then valued at$650<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">But it was the next
few months, devoid of relevant individual events, that indicated the new
trajectory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In August 2016 the Ascendant
progressed into<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Virgo and applied to a
trine with the chart Pluto; things were getting intense. In October there was a
key turning point for investors as the progressed Moon crossed the IC. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then in November there was a real boost to
the currency as the Sun progressed into Scorpio and accompanied progressed
Mercury in a conjunction with the Bitcoin chart Jupiter. This was bound to blow
things out of proportion. And it did.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">For the next six
months with the progressed Sun, Mercury and Jupiter getting closer together the
price rose and rose. On 1 April 2017 when Japan deemed Bitcoin legal tender,
the price was $1000 and even some tricky aspects weren’t enough to cancel the
power of the conjunction.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">The price was still
rising rapidly by August, $2700 on 1<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">st</span></sup>, $4700 by 31<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">st</span></sup>.
The progressed Moon had reached 29 Scorpio though and by September was at 0
Sagittarius.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Media coverage had heated
up with Jupiter sextile Saturn, Venus was transiting the Moon<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">The last gasp was
the Saturn station at 21 degrees ended and as the Sun – Mercury conjunction by
progression was exact, the progressed Moon at 0 Sagittarius was square the
progressed Ascendant and sextile that conjunction and Uranus was trine Mars at
the month end.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Does it get better
than that for a price bubble? Well actually astrologically it could. Throw more
Neptune into the mix and the impact may be pretty much infinite. But for the
moment Neptune isn’t doing that. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But what about the future?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Part III – The
future value of bitcoin <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Happy in the
knowledge that our chart describes the action to date well, we can now go
forward and look at what might happen next. Of course, as always, caveat
lector: this is experimental forecasting on a newish chart. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Progressed Neptune
will remain at around 23 degrees and on the Descendant of the chart till around
2040-2050. That is the timescale we are probably looking at for change. But
over the next few years progressed Venus will conjoin Uranus suggesting
volatility of both value and media frenzy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">By December this
year (2017),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Neptune will be sextile the
chart Mars and progressed Sun will be approaching Jupiter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Transiting Jupiter will be on the MC. These
elements suggest another, albeit smaller rise around. These configurations will
remain through 2018 too. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<strong>2018</strong><br />
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">On the other hand
Pluto will continue to square progressed Mars and transiting Saturn will
conjunct the chart’s Pluto. That is highly depressive. I suspect the Saturn
aspect will win and we won’t see any significant price increase for Christmas.
There is even a risk that it might die in its current form.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">By around 7<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup>
Jan 2018, transiting Jupiter and Mars cross the IC. And the Sun and Venus
transit join Pluto in transiting progressed Mars sextile progressed Venus.
Expect huge trading issues, and attacks at the foundations together with more
media activity.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">February sees a key
turning point<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with Jupiter at around 22
degrees square Neptune and progressed Mercury retrograding back to Capricorn
and the established way.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">March sees Jupiter
station at 23 Scorpio square the Ascendant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This suggests<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>challenges caused
by too much growth – and perhaps by the multitude of competitors. However the
progressed Moon is now trine the Moon, a good time for the wide population to
be included <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">April is challenging<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as Saturn forms a conjunction with Mars at 8
Capricorn- there maybe legislative difficulties or suspensions of trade.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Around May 5<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup>
Jupiter crosses the IC this time retrograding and throwing up the issues of
March again. Uranus square’s Mercury; a very important time for the currency
and the technology.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">June is accompanied
by significant drama. Uranus squares that progressed Sun and Jupiter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Huge swings in value could result.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">July and August is
a difficult time when there are technical challenges <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as transiting Mars retrogrades and stations on
progressed Mercury while Saturn retrogrades to the chart Pluto. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">September <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>brings the final transit of Jupiter across the
IC and brings to a close the events of February onwards. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Around October 8<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup>,
Jupiter is back at 23 Scorpio and Uranus once again Square the progressed Sun,
Jupiter conjunction. Once more I expect large fluctuations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">And from the 2<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">nd</span></sup>
November the situation is more challenging as Jupiter opposes the progressed
MC. Nevertheless Mars crossing Neptune may bring a buying spree.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Late November and
December seem to confirm that as Jupiter sextiles the progressed Sun /Jupiter
configuration. Although once more this creates technical issues reflecting the
Uranus square progressed Mercury.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<strong>2019</strong><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">In 2019 The
progressed Sun will be approaching the progressed Jupiter, once more this gives
a positive slant, though perhaps not as much as mid 2017.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">January 2019 in
mixed, Uranus is stationed square the chart progressed Mercury which I take to
be revamping of the technology taking more traditional matters into account.
Saturn crosses Mars for the first time and Pluto will now reach the chart’s
Sun.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has some of the feel to
December 2017 rather challenging.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">March to May<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>sees this continue and more trading
restrictions. However there is a boost to the technology opportunities from the
media<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as Uranus sextiles the progressed
Sun and Jupiter again and transiting Jupiter conjuncts the progressed Moon even
though square Uranus and the progressed Venus. And when Jupiter trines the
Ascendant and sextiles Neptune there might be a lot of froth to the price.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">By June Neptune has
reached 18 degrees and things should eb looking interesting globally. Jupiter
conjncts the progressed Moon but now is square Saturn as well as progressed
Venus etc , a critical time for technology development. Pluto, however remains
close to the chart Sun and Saturn to the progressed Mars. Don’t expect
everything to be so rosy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">In August things
maybe briefly positive as the progressed Moon sextiles the Descendant.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">September and
October see really fundamental changes to the technology<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as Pluto not only conjuncts progressed Mars
still but now also squares progressed Venus and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Uranus whileJupiter trines the same point. Then Uranus once more squares
the progressed Sun and Jupiter. It looks like all change. And it might even be
positive value wise by the end of the period as transiting Jupiter and Venus
together trine the Ascendant and progressed Moon.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">But that is a short
term boost as afterwards progressed Venus separates from Uranus and moves
oppose the chart Saturn. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">By December there
are likely to be massive flows of funds everywhere ( not just in relation to
this), Jupiter is conjunct Pluto, Pluto conjoins the chart Sun again, Saturn
the progressed Mars and Uranus squares the progressed Sun Jupiter
configuration- a perfect storm. The pace of change is rapid as progressed Mars
sextiles Venus and Uranus.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<strong>2020</strong><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">2020 begins with
the major Pluto conjunct Saturn – on the chart’s Sun. That is not good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the same time the progressed MC moves in
to Gemini- we are in a new environment. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">By around 27th
February things move on again,. The progressed Moon has shifted into Capricorn
and Saturn is on the progressed Mercury- there are definite restrictions now
relating to date and exchanges.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">April to June
everywhere is a long period of adjustment. Neptune at 19 degrees sits on the
chart Uranus, suggesting confusion regarding the technology- perhaps it is not
clear exactly how thinsg can be harnessed for the best going forward currency
wise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saturn is conjunct Jupiter- growth
is constrained, and the progressed Moon reaches Pluto- not a great time for an
investor.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">July may see the
birth of a new version and certainly huge expectation. Neptune is at progressed
Uranus and Venus and sextile progressed Mars and Pluto<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>together with Jupiter ( rather than Saturn)
is on the chart Sun. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">August and
September see this continuing but Saturn remains on the progressed Mercury,
restrictions on trading may remain in place throughout.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">October and
November are likely to see the completion of the process as the 2020 Pluto
Jupiter and Saturn conjoin the Bitcoin Sun. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">December is then
the start of a whole new ballgame. Progressed Venus opposes Saturn, bringing
the values right down. Pluto remains on the Sun, at best creating something out
of the rubble. But Saturn and Jupiter move into Aquarius and reach the exact
progressed Sun Jupiter conjuntion. Now we will see what the future will look
like.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<strong>2021</strong><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Briefly we can look
at early 2021 too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The impact on value
will be felt when Saturn reaches the progressed Sun in March. With progressed
Venus opposite Saturn it looks like everything is restrained despite the
Neptune conjunction with Progressed Uranus and Venus. Indeed with Neptune
starting to oppose the chart Saturn everything maybe depressed. Added to this
Pluto reaches the progressed Mercury. The idea is being reformulated completely
by April.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">So in summary,
having looked at the realities of the currency and the charts,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and although I expect a bit of soul searching
in the coming months I don’t expect Bitcoin to end this year and if it does the
other crypto -currencies won’t. This debate will go on with a mix of
re-workings and upsurges until 2019. By then we’ll see the bigger picture in
terms of real world currencies. I do believe that there could be more upside in
2019-20 but I think in the end the governments will work out a way to restrain
the more utopian elements of the technology and together with some of the banks
start to incorporate some of the more palatable elements into their own state
backed currencies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bitcoin and its
friends will be over by 2021 in their current form. But so will the credit boom
that characterised 1981-2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">The long term story
will continue over the coming decades.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Data sources:<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Bitcoin paper 31 Oct 2008: </span><a href="http://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2008-October/014810.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri";">http://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2008-October/014810.html</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">First bitcoins mined<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></i><a href="https://bit-media.org/news/first-50-bitcoin-mined-on-3-january-2009/"><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri";">https://bit-media.org/news/first-50-bitcoin-mined-on-3-january-2009/</span></i></a><i><o:p></o:p></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">First bitcoin transfer </span></i><a href="https://blockchain.info/fr/tx/f4184fc596403b9d638783cf57adfe4c75c605f6356fbc91338530e9831e9e16"><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri";">https://blockchain.info/fr/tx/f4184fc596403b9d638783cf57adfe4c75c605f6356fbc91338530e9831e9e16</span></i></a><i><o:p></o:p></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">The payments race : http://www.paymenteye.com/announcements/social-influencers-compete-in-the-payments-race-to-money-2020-europe/<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Bitcoin key dates<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<a href="https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/"><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri";">https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/</span></i></a><i><o:p></o:p></i><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">All about bitcoin
–some starters for 10<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<a href="https://bitcoin.org/en/how-it-works"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri";">https://bitcoin.org/en/how-it-works</span></i></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><o:p></o:p></i></b><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri";">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin</span></i></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><o:p></o:p></i></b></div>
<a href="https://medium.com/blockchain-review/how-does-the-blockchain-work-for-dummies-explained-simply-9f94d386e093"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri";">https://medium.com/blockchain-review/how-does-the-blockchain-work-for-dummies-explained-simply-9f94d386e093</span></a><o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Another
perspective on the astrology of Bitcoin<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><a href="http://www.financialuniverse.co.uk/exploring-bitcoins-astro-code-part-one/">http://www.financialuniverse.co.uk/exploring-bitcoins-astro-code-part-one/</a><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></i></b></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Books on the
history of Money<o:p></o:p></span></i></b><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 1;">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">History of Money Paperback – 10 Mar
1998 by </span></i><a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=dp_byline_sr_book_1?ie=UTF8&text=Jack+Weatherford&search-alias=books-uk&field-author=Jack+Weatherford&sort=relevancerank"><i><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Jack
Weatherford</span></span></i></a><i><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri";">The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World
Paperback – 5 Apr 2012 by Niall Ferguson<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i><o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p></i></div>
</div>
Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-58763804405712585912017-09-05T14:17:00.004-07:002017-09-05T14:20:31.562-07:00War Games<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"> </span></o:p><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8N5XMpA2E5NfGvs79sssUGDTO19HAsLSDCB8QVYyBD_kGmaEJX9bFKFlzx2mtKXgp3XrwwaQTp4zE15Fg2pO1-zcbcrQh2J9c0JT566LkXHaWJ9a1ScwNmZ6vwGFddHSaVYJbqRMG910/s1600/wargames-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="255" data-original-width="457" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8N5XMpA2E5NfGvs79sssUGDTO19HAsLSDCB8QVYyBD_kGmaEJX9bFKFlzx2mtKXgp3XrwwaQTp4zE15Fg2pO1-zcbcrQh2J9c0JT566LkXHaWJ9a1ScwNmZ6vwGFddHSaVYJbqRMG910/s400/wargames-1.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"></span></o:p> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";">(Credits for this pic to the creators of the War Games movie. I hope you like the way it links to the last 2 pics!)</span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Well, time for another update I think.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In the US at least, the last month has been characterised by
great eclipse fever; initially the expectation, then the event and finally the
implications: eclipses do affect weather and earth movements and in my view not
just where they are visible. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And now of
course we are in the middle of a bit of an international stand-off due to North
Korea’s military showcasing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But that is the reality, what we want to know is how close
we came to anticipating it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana";"><strong>UK</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Despite a lot of hot air the UK has had a quiet few months
July-Sept but comments on the leadership and the potential for an uptick in
Sterling in September were correct as was the expectation that the FTSE all
share would be more mixed though we appear to have escaped any glitches so far.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<strong>Europe</strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We’ll deal with Europe next as the US will<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>round up our summary this time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I pretty much nailed the lack of direction in the Euro
around August. I am also pleased with my assessment of France – after all
everyone was extremely optimistic about Macron’s win, yet I could foresee
policy vision difficulties and so it has proved. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is little to be said about Germany as
the big event, the election is still to come. Although I didn’t predict the Barcelona
event I did predict some challenges despite overall stability for Spain, it
remains one of the best Eurozone economies in 2017, consistent with my
expansionary prediction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In Italy I expected things to become more nuanced and with the
leading populist parties shifting their tone this seems also to be correct. I
expected little news in Greece and so it has proved, the economy has been
growing but the debt overhang remains huge and shifts in policy by the leading
party have caused objections though perhaps not as forceful as I expected. We’ll
see what happens between now and the year end…..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In Ireland things continue to go well as expected and it
even seems as if the one are of UK Brexit talks that might be making some
progress is on the Irish border.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Switzerland is its usual yawn inducing self ( of course that’s
not a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>bad thing for the country merely
for <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a forecaster looking for some drama!)
although it’s second quarter growth was weaker than expected which I didn’t
foresee- though the effect is subtle. And Iceland appears to be happier than I
expected although there is some dissatisfaction with tourists and prices.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<strong>Other</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As expected, in Canada things have been going very well, it
will be interesting to see if that continues in the next two months. Australia
grew strongly too after a worrying few months earlier though August was
characterised by the dual citizenship drama- I didn’t manage to get that one
but who would , though I did expect international issues to cause problems as
they did. And no doubt they are pulled into the NK drama too. In South Africa as
expected things continue to be difficult for the governing party and
particularly Mr Zuma. All three countries should in their own ways find the
next few months more “interesting.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana";"><strong>South America</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Moving to South America of course all the focus is on Venezuela
( and of course the Bolivar) which has lived up to my worst expectations and
even the threat of oil related sanctions from US coincided with my forecast for
oil price issues. Things are expected to get more dramatic in the coming months
for Maduro.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The period wasn’t expected to be particularly important in Brazil
and though to sell off assets to boost its financial strength, it continues much
as before. It remains to be seen whether there will be the expected shift away
from leadership issues in Sept and October. The Real improved in August as
expected. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In Argentina I foresaw a quite phase and it certainly seems
to have been so and the Peso did in fact reach a turning point and show some
improvement in the period although this isn’t really expected to continue in the
next two months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A quite quarter for Mexico too with some positive news on
the economy but with too many unknowns to be too optimistic. This tallies with
the uncertainty I expected. Let’s see of international matters become more important
– the NAFTA talks are on and Mexico are still determined not to pay for the wall
so it looks likely they will. I got the Peso wrong earlier in the year but it is
back on track now- treading water, though perhaps with less volatility than I
might have expected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana";"><strong>Asia - Central/West</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Let’s go to India next where Modi has recently shaken up his
team. As expected things are mixed, with the de-monetisation not as successful
at fighting corruption as hoped and with variable issues elsewhere, things are
much as we expected. I expected more issues re currency than have proved to be the
case and indeed there was an interest rate decrease. There was suspension of
Masala bonds due to demand rather than other issues. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perhaps a mixed result though not entirely
wrong and we need to see the period to end of October before being sure. The Sensex
has had a much more mixed few months than the earlier part of the year. There
definitely seemed to have been the expected change in sentiment but perhaps the
volatility was not as great as anticipated. Again we need to wait and see on this
one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I though the focus might be on wider international issues this
period and so it has been, with the US position and China in the spotlight. This
could have implications in the coming months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Really we should probably leave Russia till nearer the end
but it fits so much better here. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
assumed that issues related to international matters would focus on the ME but
of course they are really more directed to NK. I was right to surmise that the
Russian response would be moderated. While I am pleased with my Rouble forecast
for July-August<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>at the end of the month
there was an unexpected improvement. So far it seems there is little movement in
September<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>however it is only the 5<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup>!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Turkey was indeed
much quieter over the period and indeed the economy looked better. The Lira improved
too though more so in August than the expected July rise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately I don’t see this continuing. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In Iran I expected relative calm after the election but
attempts to shore up its military protections by this time. I can be very
pleased with this one as the country has just tested its first ever long-range
missile defence system amid tensions with the US over its weapons programme.
The NK situation can’t help!!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As forecast Israel has continued to put pressure on the
Palestinians in the period. The government did receive condemnation not for
that but for failing to denounce the Charlottesville attacker. And it is in
military mode with a simulated anti-Hezbollah exercise. All of which aligns
nicely with the forecast though is not as bad as I feared. Yet, anyway.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Saudi Arabia is another matter. After the dramatic succession
shifts of earlier in the year it continues to seem less stable than in a century.
It appears to be immersed in Yemen where it is now being accused of killing
children. Added to that it is continuing a mixed route of evolution; some freedoms
being offset by other crackdowns – the airline dress code being one of them.
All much as anticipated and I still maintain this will not all end well. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<strong></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>Asia East</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Moving on then, let’s talk about Indonesia. After a blip in
July the manufacturing sector grew again in August and the forecast expected economic
growth at this time. But there are indeed tricky issues particularly in
relation to extreme Islamic sentiments some stoked by our friends above in
Saudi Arabia. However nothing too dramatic is expected in the next 2 months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I anticipated changes in the interest rate environment for this
period <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>due to rises in value of the currency
and in fact there was a rate cut on August 22<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">nd</span></sup>. Another one nailed
then.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The Hong Kong dollar both showed weakness and shifts in
August confirming the expectation of some speculative actions. The Hang Seng
showed a switch from growth to volatility within a range in August more or less
in line with the prediction ( albeit after stronger than expected growth in the
first half).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So here we are, just Japan, China, North and South Korea and
the US to go. Let’s start with Japan who after all have literally seen the most
activity from NK in the last month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana";"><strong>Japan</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I didn’t identify anything in Japan’s forecast for the period
to suggest a threat ( and obviously they aren’t the prime target) . Indeed
Japan has fulfilled its prediction of good developments in 2017. The Yen
forecast ( mostly for no direction and some volatility) was pretty much right
too. I expected the Nikkei to be flat at best but for there to be a changes
internally and it reacted badly to the NK tests and internal political matters.
I.e the financial performance took second place. A moderately ok result.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana";"><strong>China</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Here is the forecast in full for China “<em>In fact there may
even be some cause for optimism at this time. There is however some risk of a
war of words, either internally or externally. July to September is not
radically different. Although there is some uncertainty for the people (and
perhaps some floods). Optimism remains, as does support for the leadership,
although there are some moderate problems with economic statistics showing some
recession and the need for some restriction on dissent.”<o:p></o:p></em></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We got the floods in July, certainly the war of words flying
around the region ( not t mention a few NK missiles as well). But growth
continue to be strong<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>too. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I thought the Renminbi showed some potential
for buying ( and thus increase) in August September and indeed it has just
reached a 14 month long high. I expect it to get even more interesting soon.
However I underestimated the Shanghai Composite which has continued to rise regardless
of events and other markets. However this must be taken in the context of the
act that we are not yet back to 2015 highs leave alone 2007 ones.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It gets more interesting as we move to:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>South Korea.<o:p></o:p></strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I Said “<em>Although there is less support for the leadership
now. The people may be quite agitated, although any sort of major disruptive
protest is highly unlikely….. September and October see the international and
financial issues reach a head</em>.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This is what the news says <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><em>The country is in
the eye of the storm amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Korean
Peninsula. Preliminary data show that a contraction in exports caused GDP
growth to decelerate in the second quarter. The decline in exports largely
reflects China's ban on group tours following the deployment of a controversial
anti-missile system in the country earlier this year. Despite the slowdown, the
government is fairly optimistic about the country’s growth outlook …….the
revision reflects the view that the approval of an almost USD 10 billion
supplementary budget will give the economy the extra boost although it is
uncertain how the government could actually implement concrete measures without
a parliamentary majority. The upward revision came despite an escalating war of
words between the United States and its rival in the North which could dampen
fixed investment and private consumption in the short-term.</em></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><strong>For North Korea I stated</strong> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">“<em>June to August however sees some return to these [military matters].
There are compromises to be made regarding the people and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>military matters. It is still a time when
economic issues are improved despite long term indicators of challenges. September
and October are interesting as they see the people and leadership opposed.
There is once again a focus on military issues but it is less well managed now
and there may be short term escalation in related matters. Some days may be
tricky though there is little evidence of any long term conflict.”<o:p></o:p></em></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Obviously we are all aware of what is happening and the fact
that sanctions further damage the people while military matters dominate. I
hope I am right that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>no long term conflict
starts now. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">And finally to the US where I said<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">“<em>July and August is not markedly different with the
difference of opinion over the leadership still festering. There is still a
cloud over the real person- to some that is a sparkly rose coloured mist, to
others it is grey and dank fog. As a result, there may still be some unrest to
be dealt with; even normally passive/co-operative people and partners may be
prone to aggression at this time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
may manifest at both a country and international level. “<o:p></o:p></em></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I think that deserves a gold star for getting both internal aggression
and external stuff timed so well ( though not a platinum star as I missed
Harvey altogether! – although too be fair that was Neptune as I attributed
mists to it rather than water.) I hope ( for many reasons) that I get the rest
of the year right as I did not predict all out global thermonuclear war!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">When it comes to the dollar I said<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">“<em>It is around August when we will really see radical
effects. The currency faces a dramatic challenge to the expansionary policies
of the last decades. There are echoes of the 1930s and of the 1970s. There does
not seem to be much opposition from the people at this stage and there is still
some structure in place to stop values becoming too volatile.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>September
and October see more of the same. “<o:p></o:p></em></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In fact August wasn’t a dramatic month at all. Indeed 2017’s
relentless rise of the Euro etc stalled. However this hides the impact of the
discussion over the budget ceiling and debt as a whole ( the wall, defence,
flood bailing etc). It also says nothing about the rise of bitcoin etc which is
a whole different article.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">When it comes to the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Dow I predicted<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">“<em>This picture continues into June, July and August. There is
a lack of direction and minor fluctuations. I’d guess we’re in for one last
boost to valuations before a new cycle begins. September looks like a holding
pattern. “</em> This pretty much sums up the position. With a final push up into
August and then fluctuations below that peak.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But the NASDAQ <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>forecast was<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">“<em>In July to September, it is investors who are busy
rebalancing their portfolios. It is a pretty mixed period and we’d have to look
at a day to day analysis to see the actual movements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a quieter period than the previous few
months. I don’t expect this quarter to end much different to how it began</em>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Interestingly although the overall picture is similar to the
Dow there is a noticeable difference in that the latter peaked in late July early
August whereas the Nasdaq had a higher peak in the last week. Still on balance it
looks to be fulfilling the prediction nicely.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So that’s it then. Pretty much everything on track for 2017.
And perhaps for 2018-20 too???<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #281e1e; font-family: "helvetica" , "sans-serif";"><o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #281e1e; font-family: "helvetica" , "sans-serif";"><o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-10420568514898370842017-07-15T07:42:00.000-07:002017-07-15T07:47:05.813-07:00More global gadding 2017<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It is July and we need another update don't we?</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDw_k2Tb0Um2l5jYdPkCuW_Hq91CqOejyn5NYKvYyCuFB88t8HMnnYO03EVU2f1L6p9WYjW7uK3-nCZdt0f0rhDQxqZ_EMGZRQbskU8_8yOlCERY_UTUBTXHpCgVoL5w_2DMeN0950cy8/s1600/round+teh+world.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="358" data-original-width="720" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDw_k2Tb0Um2l5jYdPkCuW_Hq91CqOejyn5NYKvYyCuFB88t8HMnnYO03EVU2f1L6p9WYjW7uK3-nCZdt0f0rhDQxqZ_EMGZRQbskU8_8yOlCERY_UTUBTXHpCgVoL5w_2DMeN0950cy8/s400/round+teh+world.png" width="400" /></a></div>
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span> </div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This time I've summarised each forecast. Generally the political ones are spot on, but there are some weaknesses in the currency and market forecasts- it is easier to see drama than it is more of the same of course so I expect that imbalance to right itself in the coming 3 years!</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">For completeness here is the summary, but all a reader needs to know is nothing has changed my view of the risk areas:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><o:p>U</o:p>k and sterling. I anticipated uncertainty in the period May
to July, and leadership issues in the Sterling chart. Though I never expected
the election itself, in retrospect my predictions make sense. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The FTSE prediction was for surprises and maybe glitches,
but while the world as a whole has been affected by the computer viruses <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in this period the FTSE in particular has not
been directly affected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">My Euro prediction was reasonable enough, the countries also
not too bad. In France I foresaw the beginning of challenges with a new<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>government’s policies- we’ll have to see
whether I am right in the longer term . I expected Germany to have tougher
stats than seems to have been the case, but in Italy the political events are
in line and Spain continues to track the expected path. There was little to say
about Switzerland, Ireland or Iceland but lots to say about Greece, which
pushed the can a little further with another bailout in June. Problems there
are still expected later this year but more particularly from mid 2018. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In the US, things go on much as expected with more of the same
focus on “fake news” etc.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Expect events there
to accelerate in the second half of August. The dollar forecast was fair and the
Nasdaq too but I underestimated the strength of the Dow. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Mexico’s position turned out better than I expected,
although my expectation of increased drug violence was correct. However my general
prediction meant that the Peso has done the opposite of what I forecast which
is not good (!) ( well, unless you held Pesos that is). On the other hand Venezuela
continues to fully reflect my expected path to destruction and I was right that
there would be another attempt to reform the Bolivar. I didn’t understand the
Brazil forecast when I wrote it- after all the previous head had been removed
for corruption so why was I still seeing it in the charts, but I wasn’t wrong ;
the sage continues. In Argentina I though things would look better and so it
proves – the jury is still out on the Peso long term but it is performing exactly
as I expected. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In China there wasn’t much to say and the focus was on “wars
of words” which seems to have played out with North Korea warnings. Neither the
Renminbi or Stock market did anything dramatic and my forecasts for these were average.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In Hong Kong the HK$ continues to survive<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>albeit with less relevance and the forecast
wasn’t particularly interesting either but the Hang Seng’s did contain an
expectation of volatility which proved to be the case due to some individual
companies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In Japan there is also little to say, though things were
perhaps better than I expected. I was pretty much right on the Yen but less so
for the Nikkei where my timing was definitely out.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Indonesia’s forecast is always difficult due to lack of
information. It wasn’t bad but it is difficult to compare the reality
accurately. The Rupiah forecast was not very good.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">However my forecasts for the Koreas make up for it and especially
events in North Korea which are, sadly, proceeding <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>exactly
as anticipated.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>India was pretty much
correct too as was the Rupee forecast. But the Sensex forecast was wrong in
April in particular though otherwise ok. Pakistan as expected continues without
much changes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Russia was a pretty good forecast too, though arguably
despite all the international issues it has remained rather calm. The Rouble
forecast was ok but not stellar.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Turkey continues to be interesting, showing government
strength when that is not necessarily a positive even if it is technically so! <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Liar forecast was good too.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Israel also continues to match expectations but not necessarily
in a good way. Iran did fight off the hardliners in the election but it is by
no means clear that they have accepted defeat. I still expect some issues here
going forward. Saudi really lived up to my expectations, shaking up the line of
succession, threatening Qatar and proceeding with Aramco plans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This one Is definitely shaping up to be worth
watching.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">There is little worth saying about Canada or Australia,
though the latter does have some economic wobbles it still continues to be a
success and I expected this to be the case compared to elsewhere in the next
few years. South Africa completes the set with the water issues I expected and on-going
political wrangling and a vulnerable economy but perhaps not as tough as I
thought.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-2833026305611301612017-05-16T09:00:00.001-07:002017-05-16T09:00:31.705-07:00A global gadabout<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY4Z3q065Z1tZkqVsXfhCuOvOl67t1H5PVye_rqw5UJSAW__jt0pEOGGYVhgUfBjRFDiw1QyNHRXqr5D3jhbgIna_g9DRmKk04vGfZ0aw17FuLgqgbETBbD0MrCw3DHRTW0VZVYKVTLzc/s1600/computer+worm.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY4Z3q065Z1tZkqVsXfhCuOvOl67t1H5PVye_rqw5UJSAW__jt0pEOGGYVhgUfBjRFDiw1QyNHRXqr5D3jhbgIna_g9DRmKk04vGfZ0aw17FuLgqgbETBbD0MrCw3DHRTW0VZVYKVTLzc/s400/computer+worm.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I promised that this year I would provide more frequent updates
on my forecasting and on world events in general. This is the first of those.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Once of the most interesting events of the 5 months so far
was last week’s computer worm<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>attack. I
did not foresee this ( it was too widely dispersed to show up in any individual
country chart) though I did expect tech glitches in some of the stock markets
this month as the potential was definitely there in the skies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Right event, wrong destination. But then May
isn’t finished yet…. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Otherwise, a brief review of events to date shows that my
forecasts were mostly solid for January to May.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But it was never going to be a dramatic time. That will come later.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There were only a couple of red warnings on my summary chart
for the whole period. And, no, the US did not warrant a red warning and still
doesn’t! ( yet)- there are clearly problems but many of the minor ones have
been magnified by the media and the real ones hardly addressed. We will see how
that plays out later too. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Indeed, even Venezuela didn’t get a red for this period-
although the predictions were severe. Nor did North Korea although I expected
some military might on show. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Later in year, however, there is more to worry about.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My major political concern is the Saudi
Arabia, Israel, Iran threesome.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It does
worry me that Trump is visiting two of these three on his first big trip- hope
he doesn’t agree to anything stupid……. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There is, of course, also a special mention for North Korea
on the red warning chart; although I expect that to rapidly become an internal
issue. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although there are also some other, more economic,
flashpoints mainly for Greece and the Venezuela currency at least, I feel more
relaxed about these, at least in 2017. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So that’s all there is to it at the moment. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But watch this space!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-50189590837380243732017-02-23T07:42:00.003-08:002017-02-23T07:42:42.322-08:00Getting there 2017-2020<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjugSAX7Y7NfGgj5PoP3QeuECocuMoNuBBbmBgBGj2Ky8xqAKhdOAci1Bu3vbAZhr_0xjo0apUVKxGPj6elRH12fcHemP2IM4V0IztZqxUoIApG8xbBNr06_4iw1hxKjBaZjK0LMk60Yts/s1600/peak.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjugSAX7Y7NfGgj5PoP3QeuECocuMoNuBBbmBgBGj2Ky8xqAKhdOAci1Bu3vbAZhr_0xjo0apUVKxGPj6elRH12fcHemP2IM4V0IztZqxUoIApG8xbBNr06_4iw1hxKjBaZjK0LMk60Yts/s400/peak.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Phew! We're done</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">All the predictions for 2017-2020 are up. A few other currencies might follow later in 2018 but nothing for now.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">What we do hope to do in this phase is to have regular updates rather than just the annual ones; in some respects a more traditional blog approach. But the purpose will be to break down the strengths and weaknesses in the techniques and charts.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana;"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana;">I look forward to an easier life.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<br />
Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-83037282472537226602017-02-23T07:36:00.001-08:002017-02-23T07:36:15.912-08:00Argentine Peso 2017-2020
<br />
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_oGVzteZ4-x9tffDT5XMilG92anJahuJDavbSPjyzoAdu1CbxMHqAjmEecGGIWgMkac0fxEcWyg_h9o8eniwJM_xQWxPo6Ze3YGuX7cRHF9g9mV_6uoc3tIcafVGTcB_2Gi_pFEL8Akg/s1600/151209ArgentinaCentralBank-1000x710.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_oGVzteZ4-x9tffDT5XMilG92anJahuJDavbSPjyzoAdu1CbxMHqAjmEecGGIWgMkac0fxEcWyg_h9o8eniwJM_xQWxPo6Ze3YGuX7cRHF9g9mV_6uoc3tIcafVGTcB_2Gi_pFEL8Akg/s400/151209ArgentinaCentralBank-1000x710.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The big change in the
official Peso rate happened at the end of 2015, although 2016 can hardly be
said to have been great. And of course we are talking the official rate- with
inflation at 40% who knows what the street rate might be. The main question for
the next four years is surely is the Argentine Peso going the way of the
Bolivar? And of course there is the secondary question as to how the expected
financial events of 2019-20 will affect the currency. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2017</span></strong></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2017 have actually seen some minor<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>improvement in the official rate. Although it
is still lower than in October 2016 so we are not talking a significant change
of sentiment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">March to May sees a long term shift in the currency and
perhaps the central bank.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The period is
therefore interesting. There is some volatility coupled with continued
inflation but there is also confusion over whether the currency has found its
level. Yet all this is accompanied by a medium term phase that lasts until 2020
which is highly negative for the currency’s a value. The only question is has
the currency found its<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>bottom already
and will stay there until 2020 or are there significantly more falls to come?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
June to August is a mixed period that carried on much of the
themes above. There may be a short term turning point now but volatility as a
whole seems reduced.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">September and October are potentially better months – but
there is unlikely to be much uplift just a sense of treading water.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
November and December see the picture heightened again.
Volatility returns though investor activity may be cautious so perhaps the
volatility will be mild. A more significant turning point is reached now as the
currency starts a new 12 year cycle. However the indicator referred to in
January and February may override this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2018</span></strong></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2018 are moderately positive months for
the currency, within the broader difficulties- indeed there is a tendency for
values to overshoot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There may however
be constraints on trading which offset this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
March to May includes a very interesting indicator. A big
shift in investor sentiment which may even be a major shock. Inflationary
tendencies continue<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in the same vein as
in 2017. The mood of January and February is repeated but with perhaps a sort
term turning point <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">June to August is a culmination of the themes to date.
Indicators of the major bottom referred to in earl 2017 continue, as does the
focus on inflation and the investor shake-up conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
This could be the most fundamental period of the 4 years for
the currency.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">September and October are similar though somewhat moderated.
Again the positive mood of January and February recurs with another short term
turning point. The matter of public debt is particularly important now and
there may be interest rate adaptations. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
November and December is a more restrained period. Although
a lot happens it is more likely to be at the granular level rather than major.
Investors are cautious and trading conditions difficult so little movement is
likely. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<strong>2019</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2019 are unlikely to be significant
value wise. Some of the restrictions that characterised the end of 2018
continue and for the most part other indicators offset. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
March to June is for the most part a positive time though
investors may once again be destabilised. The inflationary environment remains
unchanged. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">July to September also sees a return to the longer term
conditions that mirror the value trends of 2017-8.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Although it is a mixed time generally with little major
trend, there is likely to be a focus on this currency now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October and November, while not seeing a let up in the
longer trends, so suggest a short term boost of some sorts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
This continues into December. It is the last of the phase
that started in 2016 and there is some optimism now. Although we aren’t looking
at major rises, this might be a good time for the currency.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2020 </span></strong></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2020 is of course an interesting year for currencies anyway.
But if January and February are indications of the year the focus will be
elsewhere. Indeed there is a possibility that the currency could make big gains
now. Certainly big movements in value are likely.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
The position is accentuated in March to July, when caution
is thrown to the wind by investors. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Although we are in generally a difficult time, and some off
days are likely <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I see this as been a
generally highly positive for the currency.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
August to September<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>is somewhat more moderated than the last few months but there is still a
positive trend. Also noteworthy is the indication that a long term shake up the
currency is on the cards- challenging long held perspectives. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October and November continue this and if anything
accentuated any movements. All in all an interesting time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">December is also positive but quieter as things play out
elsewhere. This might mean the new environment is heralded by a pull back at
the year end, but overall 2020 could be the currency’s year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
</div>
Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-4448294575422024092017-02-23T07:33:00.001-08:002017-02-23T07:33:18.151-08:00Argentina 2017-2020
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRe9Pr1z6ZOFYqw3xodhco_KSql8dAvbe_AiAb6NNZAsuy_aFppUyhv1pdQrcXmRn15lJcAA6tli9tUkJQfNana9BwY3PhuMZWV3gLUToVcv9nUEaPH0x7rL0LoOmEFcfmwl1OxYpqifM/s1600/argentina_wine_map_in_organic_wine_tasting.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRe9Pr1z6ZOFYqw3xodhco_KSql8dAvbe_AiAb6NNZAsuy_aFppUyhv1pdQrcXmRn15lJcAA6tli9tUkJQfNana9BwY3PhuMZWV3gLUToVcv9nUEaPH0x7rL0LoOmEFcfmwl1OxYpqifM/s400/argentina_wine_map_in_organic_wine_tasting.gif" width="397" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of the South American countries only Venezuela has had as
tough a time as Argentina in 2016. Many of the anticipated benefits of the new
president Macri have yet to be evidenced particularly a stop to the spiralling
inflation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> 2017</span></strong></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2017 are actually moderately good
months in the country. Of course it is summer time and perhaps some of the
pressures are off. The people struggle on – they are truly all in it together
The exception is the leadership which feels as if it has a heavy burden on its
shoulders and in conscious of the budgetary and inflationary constraints.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
March to May is similar. The pressures on the leadership
remain, especially in relation to the mix of inertia and inflation. Although
there are increasing opportunity to make changes which might just be enough to
provide some positive news in this period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">June to August is a quieter phase. Inflation and budget
constraints continue but there is far less development in any direction now and
less focus on the leadership. Just another boring phase.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
September and October, however, are more interesting.
Although there are still budget issues and the inertia continues, the inflation
might be tapering off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However just when
the leadership has some good news to impart the people are getting fed up with
them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>November and December
are this months when there is a brief return for the government to the
pressures of earlier in the year. There is a sense of the country moving into
new territory and having reached the worst point in terms of difficulties.
There may be positive news on debts. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p><strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2018 </span></strong></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2018 is mixed with some disconnect
between leadership and people and we haven’t seen the back of the inertia quite
yet either. However there may be some big surprises and some of these may be
positive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
This phase of positive news continues into the next few
months. March to May sees the beginnings of a shift within the country with a
focus on the people and with things looking reasonably positive for the
leadership.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However there are new difficulties and hardships that can
create pockets of difficulties now - there are indications of harsh attempts to
undermine policies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">June to August is a mixed period. The issue of inflation is
key now- but we will need to look at the currency forecast and maybe even be
closer to the date to fully understand whether the signs point to significant
escalation in inflation or the end of it- but carrying on as before is not an
option.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
September and October <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>follow from the previous 3 months, and there
are signs that some very crucial turning points are reached. Changes can happen
surprisingly quickly in this phase.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">November and December are more mixed and the year end might
be characterised by some difficulties between government and people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2019 </span></strong></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2019 is a period of opportunity. The
indicators we talked about in mid 2018 return so the focus may be on the
inflationary position. However for the most part the other signs are better,
there is opportunity some financial stability ( though not without the odd
outbreak of problems) and far less focus on the leadership which in this
environment must be a good sign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
March to June is mixed with some of the indicators from the
early months continuing and the picture looking positive for the people.
However there may be a return to inertia at the same time as inflation is
addressed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">July to September is not a period when much progress is
made. It is a time when the positives and negatives tend to offset and moving
in any direction is hard. However this is misleading as great progress may be
made behind the scenes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October and November see the focus once more on inflation
and debts ( again we need to understand what this means for the currency to get
the full picture).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
But in general this looks to be an extraordinarily positive
time for the country and for the government.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">December is both more difficult – there are once again signs
that there may be some unpleasant actions and although the people may end the
year on a high the government is still making adjustments to its policies and
programmes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<strong>2020</strong></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Of course January and February 2020 is a time of major
focus. And while Argentina does not seem to be at the eye of the storm, it is
clearly affected. The financial conditions that characterised 2019 continue though
there is some very positive news on medium term economics. However there are
lots of detailed adjustments and the result may be hardship and possibly
pushback from the people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">March to June sees pushback more likely as there is more
energy and less restriction. But at least some of the picture must be improving
as the people are aligned with the government now and indeed there is positive
news regarding the country as it adjusts its position within the world.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
August and September is more tricky again, but there are no
new developments.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October and November are again both intense but also
potentially positive months for the people despite ongoing issues of
inertia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
Shifts, perhaps not significant but nevertheless
interesting,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in the country’s position
continue.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While the 2020 trends don’t end in December they are
drastically reduced and this leads to some shocks for the people and a
moderately tricky period. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
However the year end itself is noticeably uneventful when
compared with other nations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
</div>
Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-85599674758359221982017-02-22T10:59:00.002-08:002017-02-22T10:59:14.918-08:00Brazilian Real 2017-2020<br />
<br />
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjQiZkquVhmKA9fftnnn7GrYEZY4N6E6Ig-kIPmmig3vywYS4H2DyZ54Bz5W50q8D0cWEzsmpGrCwFOZdI_DF3o69ZgHkrqgmUQF5nXSaOz1_0iwA6fXUOGR0ee24I55hvb9kuEL8CjJo/s1600/brazil+bank.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjQiZkquVhmKA9fftnnn7GrYEZY4N6E6Ig-kIPmmig3vywYS4H2DyZ54Bz5W50q8D0cWEzsmpGrCwFOZdI_DF3o69ZgHkrqgmUQF5nXSaOz1_0iwA6fXUOGR0ee24I55hvb9kuEL8CjJo/s400/brazil+bank.png" width="400" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Fortunately I don’t have the same blindspot with the Real as
I do with Brazil itself and as I predicted the Real had a good 2016. So good it
has even strengthened after the dollar rally (though it did experience a short
fall in November). The currency is now back at its 2014 levels, but with so much
potential change in the country where will it go next.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
<o:p><strong>2017 </strong></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2017 have so far been moderately
positive for the currency. There is certainly enough momentum to keep this
going for the rest of February though we are not looking for any significant
further gain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
March to May is likely to be a more volatile phase. Overall
I would expect little trend, but there may be a risk of some sharp falls in the
currency’s value due to unexpected news.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">June to August becomes more moderate again. If anything we
could expect some surprising news on the upside. But generally it is less
volatile and the trend more positive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">September and October is rather mixed though not especially
volatile. On balance this suggests that the currency will tread water. The only
exception is the right at the end of the period which is vulnerable to short
term falls.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">November and December are for the most part positive and may
well be the best period for the currency once the first half of November has
passed. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
I’d expect global focus on the currency now as a key turning
point is reached.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span></o:p> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>2018</strong> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2018 are however more difficult months.
There is pressure on the currency and falls are distinctly likely although
there is perhaps some relief in terms of expectations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
March to May is a bit mixed, and have some indicators that
reflect the previous June- August. A difficult period to call and may be characterise
once again by big swings as the short term indicators are actually positive
whele the longer terms ones are harsher.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">June to August is a period of drama for the currency. Shades
of the early part of the year return and are even more extreme now as there are
some shocks. The period may well see another key longer term reversal.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
September and October are much like June to August, there is
still a lot of pressure on the currency and concern for investors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However it is not all negative and one again
it is likely that positive expectation will overcome much of the negativity. If
there is a trend it should be down but the offset from this positive
expectation might lead to the currency being flat over the 2 months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">November and December see a return to the more intense
conditions and with major shocks and restrictions this could be a difficult time.
There are positives to be found so we are not looking at a straightforward
downward trend but it’s not great either.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<o:p><strong><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">2019 </span></strong></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">January and February 2019<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>are mixed and in many ways a continuation of 2018, but there is a
glimmer of light as some of the heavier indicators reduce to be replaced by some
more supportive ones. The only question is whether the conditions now may be
significantly inflationary, in which case further falls are likely, but these
are likely to be inflation driven rather than event driven.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
March to June is a very mixed period, There are a lot of
offsetting factors which should, on balance, make the currency’s value<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>relatively flat at this time. Nevertheless
there are some indictors of further shocks which might cause outbreaks of volatility
again.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">July to September sees elements of volatility continue but
there are moderated by the surrounding conditions. This is a time of little
direction and small shifts rather than big trends or even significant swings.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
October and November are milder months all round. This looks
like a positive phase for the currency though mega gains are unlikely,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">December continues the mood of November but perhaps with
some restriction on the amount of trade due to international events. The effect
is probably to dampen the trend down as traders wait to see what 2020 will
bring.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><strong>2020</strong> </span></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And, in fact, the whole of 2020 may be rather volatile.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
January and February<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>are
not particularly so, however, especially when compared with elsewhere. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
On balance this looks a good time for the Real but not an
especially noteworthy one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">March to July, however, is noteworthy. Volatility reaches a
peak. It is difficult to detect a discernible trend at this time as there is so
much happening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once again there are
some indications of inflationary pressures and the possibility that a one off
devaluation is proposed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">August and September see the general themes continuing but
it is a more moderated phase than the previous 5 months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">October and November, however, sees a return to the drama
and definitely indications that we might be looking at a new level or, indeed,
structure for the currency. But this is still in the making.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
It is not till the end of December that we will really see
the new picture emerging and a consequent big shift in value before the start
of 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
</div>
Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5281438159598089108.post-89463724919272659382017-02-22T10:55:00.002-08:002017-02-22T10:56:19.896-08:00Brazil 2017-2020<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfs-Vtcm2jzdgcbwgez3ibTwf1h0i2W9S1L8B1c8Eccu6rW0JXnpqdHCrsAgzcVnGqx2eGUAMHNRtAbm4kocJOZn7-5urDm1xLkVXDasZ80x3a_54G1hvt1e3fLkfMzuRdnvRnls3pvAQ/s1600/18452620-Map-of-Brazil-with-all-capitals-Cities-of-Brazil--Stock-Vector.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfs-Vtcm2jzdgcbwgez3ibTwf1h0i2W9S1L8B1c8Eccu6rW0JXnpqdHCrsAgzcVnGqx2eGUAMHNRtAbm4kocJOZn7-5urDm1xLkVXDasZ80x3a_54G1hvt1e3fLkfMzuRdnvRnls3pvAQ/s400/18452620-Map-of-Brazil-with-all-capitals-Cities-of-Brazil--Stock-Vector.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p>2016 wasn’t a great
year for Brazil, with inflation above target, GDP falling and public debt (
subject to Brazil’s high interest rates) increasing again not to mention the
enforced presidential change as Rousseff was removed from office. In theory the
picture doesn’t look much better for 2017, but with so much happening elsewhere
in the world perhaps Brazil will get off lightly in the end. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
Of course as readers will know Brazil is my bête noire where
I consistently fail to get things right so whether this forecast will be worth
it is debateable. Anyway, here goes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
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<o:p><strong><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">2017 </span></strong></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We are almost through January and February 2017 now (20/2).
There have been some positive signs that the country is turning the economic
corner, but the continuing corruption allegations and proposed austerity
reforms could mean this reverses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What we can say is
that we are moving into a new 30 year phase in terms of leadership. However
there is evidence that the corruption problem has not gone away and that the
leadership will continue to be under a cloud for the next year at least. Other
than that the period is rather mixed, although the positive economic green
shoots may continue they are merely shoots.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">June to August is not significantly different, although
there may be communication difficulties of restrictions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">September and October are also a continuation of this phase
though the focus moves away from the leadership for a while.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
However there is likely to be much more going on in terms of
policy and growth now. Generally it will be positive although there are some
difficulties to overcome.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">November and December are quite different in tone. The people may be more assertive though conflict is not
necessarily signified. There may be positive signs of sustained growth and improved
external relations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
By the end of the year, though, there may be some serious
challenges for the leadership as there is an attempt to break away from the
past.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><strong><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">2018 </span></strong></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The background picture for 2018 is relatively positive. However there are many smaller obstacles to overcome. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
January and February 2018 see some elements of the
population disgruntled and protesting, but this is not too extensive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Attempts to end certain economic practices and corruption as
well as moderate austerity measures have a mixed impact in the short term.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
March to May then sees the issue of leadership corruption
and weakness return- there are winners and losers and it is difficult to see
much progress being made- inertia seems to be the order of the day.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I don’t see this as a time of much progress even if there is
the odd snippet of positive news.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
June to August is more difficult for the people as the
inertia continues. But it is a better time for the government and there is a
change of pushing forward and creating some growth.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">September and October are once more tricky times for the
leadership – with that continued question mark or cloud over its ability. It
should be election time so many issues will surface. There is no clear
indicator of change despite the question mark. It is likely that the president
will continue but perhaps weakened further.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
There is evidence that economic measures are slowly
improving matters and restricting the more negative elements which
traditionally drag the country down.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The people are slightly unsettled and this might be news
worthy on a wide scale. There is certainly a likelihood of the country getting wider
exposure now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<strong>2019</strong></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">January and February 2019 is a good time for the Brazilian
people but a more mixed time for the leadership which remains weakened by<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>mis-information and/or deception. However it
has support to continue <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
March To June is a another mixed phase, but this time the
focus is off the leadership. There are economic ( debt service?) challenges but
there is also an unprecedented opportunity to reform some of the more difficult
structural problems. There is resistance to this which might be disruptive and
it won’t be a straightforward resolution but progress can be made.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">July to September is about the people again and brings the
country into the limelight for a while.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
Although the budget and economic situation is mixed, there
are many positives to be taken form this period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">October and November have shades of March to June about them
with many of the issues resurfacing. Although there are elements of opposition
I would expect this again to be a good period for the people and moderately ok
for the government.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
December sees this phase of changing the more resistant
structures not just continue but reach a peak by the year end. This does put
significant pressure back on the leadership but there are definitely upsides to
the situation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<o:p><strong><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">2020 </span></strong></o:p></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
The events of 2020 do not miss Brazil and as early as
January and February we can see some budgetary or other resource challenges
arising. However the changes that makes to the foundations of the country are
actually position. In addition the reforming activity is continuing<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and although there are tricky hurdles to
cross this might be a good time for the country and its leadership.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">March to July is certainly busy. Especially for the people
in general. This does put pressure on the leadership as there are people who
are not prepared to accept the economic situation<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and are prepared to stic their heads above
the parapet and say so quite vehemently . <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
But the signs of progress being made are really quite
unequivocal now.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><o:p>A</o:p>ugust and September are more like January and February and
the pace is slower. However there is a sense of gradual stability returning to
the people day to day.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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October and November see this all integrated and at least
some signs of final economic resolution to some issues. It is not a bad time
and relative to many places is quite calm.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A lot of the pressure is off the country by the
year end, despite the surrounding financial issues. There can be more progress
and a much better resolution of any debt issues- perhaps renegotiation or just
a lesser burden.</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
Fortunahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01325571310040179352noreply@blogger.com0